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GBPUSD: 4HR Death Cross, LH and LL formation downtrendMaintaining my shorts on this pair with validation coming from the 50EMA (turquoise) crossing the 100EMA (white) which forms a death cross in the 4hr time frame. GBPUSD has failed to make a new higher high and so I'm expecting a push down to the recent low, we may break this immediately, or retrace back to the descending trendline that's now formed. We're making lower highs and lower lows which indicates a down-trend. Ultimately I'm expecting this pair to fall to below 1.22 in the coming weeks. Big FOMC release tomorrow, if the notes support Powell's recent hawkish stance then this will be bad for cable, then there is NFP on Friday which is a bit unknown. Fundamentally for GBP, recent data suggests inflation may be coming down, which suggests that the BoE may become less hawkish. Powell suggested a couple more hikes, which could mean Fed interest rates remain higher for longer. I'm also expecting a push up for DXY based on it's chart patterns. I'm staying short.
Short
by Finchcliffe
14
NZDJPY BREAKER BLOCK ENTRY M15 On NZDJPY, we have a bearish setup following yesterday's rally. As the price rose, it created a breaker block around the 0.8913 area. This will be our entry point for a long position with a target at 0.8966. The breaker block was formed on the M15 timeframe when the price broke out of the previous supply zone. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and have a great day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
Euro trading quietly around 1.09, FOMC minutes nextEUR/USD is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is almost unchanged at 1.0882. The eurozone services sector continues to show growth, but the June numbers showed a deceleration. Eurozone PMI slowed to 52.0, shy of the consensus of 52.4 and down from 55.1 in May. This marked a five-month low. Germany's services sector stalled, dropping from 53.9 to 50.6 and missing the consensus of 50.8 points. The 50.0 level separates contraction from expansion. The eurozone economy has been recovering slowly, with services driving economic activity as manufacturing continues to decline. The ECB, which showed up late to the rate-hiking party but has been quite hawkish, will need to tread carefully in order to guide the economy to a soft landing. The central bank meets next on July 27th and is expected to raise rates. Inflation has been falling but core CPI remains persistently high. The ECB has signalled more rate hikes are coming and Joachim Nagel, head of the German central bank, reiterated the ECB's stance, saying this week that inflation risks are tilted to the upside and the ECB's rate-hike cycle has "some way to go". Wednesday's highlight is the FOMC minutes of the June meeting, when the Fed raised rates by 0.25%, bringing the benchmark cash rate to a range of 5.00%-5.25%. The markets are widely expecting the Fed to hike at the July meeting but aren't sure about another rate hike this year. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed plans two hikes in the second half of the year and the minutes could change the market's tune if the Fed's tone is hawkish. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0908. The next resistance line is 110.50 1.0838 and 1.0766 are providing support
by OANDA
USDCAD LONG SETUP BEFORE FOMC + OPECOn USDCAD, we have a bullish setup with the price retracing to the 1.3226 area, touching a minor demand within the main demand zone. I have used this level as a possible entry zone with a target at 1.33. With the upcoming OPEC and FOMC events, the dollar could potentially have a bullish push this morning, considering also the DXI, which appears to have a bullish trend. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and give a like to support our work. Greetings and have a good day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
Price Waiting for News Releases | Tech/Fundamental Analysis Traders, today we have those news releases for Wed, 28 Jun 2023.. Buyside liquidity then sellside liquidity.. Use these news as your trigger and most importantly, confirm your entry.. This view is linked to my previous view, please review it.. Price may reprice higher than H2 FVG and into my "sell area" marked in my previous idea.. Those are areas of "possible" reversal points, and entry should be confirmed in the proper time.. I'll keep you updated ✅
Short
by MST_Trader
QQQ Outlook 0626-30/2023Technical Analysis: Last week’s price action put NASDAQ:QQQ back inside the bullish channel we’ve been watching since March. We should see come corrective price action this week before tech runs higher. Bulls will look to see if we can stay above last week’s lows at 360. It is crucial bulls hold this level or we could see the daily fair value gap that could be filled below at 357.66. Bears will want to see a breakdown under the daily fair value gap, where we could test the strong monthly level at 354.43. If we lose the levels above, we can look for a test of the lower trendline in the upcoming weeks, and possibly a large gap to fill to the downside from 336.67-332.91. Inside this gap is the 50SMA and the 61.8% retrace at 334.00. Upside Targets: 364.57 → 370.10 → 373.83 → 380.76 → 386.28 Downside Targets: 360.00 → 358.97 → 357.66 → 354.43 → 352.46
NASDAQ:QQQ
by peterjames_6
SPY Outlook 06/26-30/2023Last week’s newsletter, we leaned bearish and the market made lower lows 4 out of the 4 trading sessions. With more fed speakers this week, PCE and Consumer Confidence data releases, and political turmoil in Russia, uncertainty can cause volatility in the market bringing down equities. Technical Analysis: AMEX:SPY is still due for a retest of the bull flag and daily channel breakout around 429.57. Should this area not hold, a .618 retrace would suggest we pullback to the gap below at 424-423. I do think we revisit that, and possibly test the daily fair value gap below 419. Bulls will want price action to stay above the weekly 432.03 level. If this holds, we can target the gap above at 437.45-438.97. Bears will want to try and and break below the red uptrend trendline. If we cannot hold 432.03, we can target the previous bull flag breakout at 429.61. If that doesn’t hold, we could target the 50% retracement where we bullflagged in the beginning of the month around 426.70. An even deeper target is the the daily gap below at 423.95-422.92. Should this gap fill, I would flip long. Upside Targets: 436.00 → 437.45→ 438.97 → 441.21 → 443.90 Downside Targets: 432.03 → 429.61 → 428.78 → 426.70 → 425.14
AMEX:SPY
by peterjames_6
DXY: Will the rising dynamic trendline hold?Tough times for the USD; the market didn't buy Powell's hawkish attempt, ECB went as expected and Dixie has plummeted today. I do think the USD crosses will get a breather retracement tomorrow, so we could see a bounce off the rising trendline on HTF's. If we break the wedge to the upside then this could lead to a higher low and could signal a reversal with a higher high. If the trendline is broken, and we then go on to make a new low then I think the USD will continue to struggle, what with the ECB and BOE continuing to hike, and showing some good data. Watching and waiting...
TVC:DXY
by Finchcliffe
Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY JUNE 20, 2023Investors Await Central Bank Actions Amid Global Economic Concerns and Uncertainties Prevail Today events: USA - Building Permits (May) USA - FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USA - Housing Starts (MoM) (May) USA - FOMC Member Williams Speaks Eurozone - ECB McCaul Speaks Eurozone - ECB's De Guindos Speaks On the evening of Monday, following a public holiday, there was a slight decline in stock futures as investors braced themselves for significant speeches expected from officials of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) throughout the week. This anticipation added to the prevailing uncertainties and lack of clarity that characterized the previous week. In the United States, the inflation data was considered acceptable but not extraordinary, prompting the Fed to temporarily halt its actions while projecting multiple interest rate hikes in the future. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates and emphasized the potential for further increases. Now, all eyes are on the Bank of England (BoE) as it confronts the formidable task of managing the current situation. Despite the efforts of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain control, there exists a looming risk of inflation spiraling out of hand. Among the major economies grappling with the dual objectives of taming inflation and ensuring a smooth economic transition, the United Kingdom appears to be encountering the greatest challenges in effectively attaining these goals. GBP/USD daily chart An intriguing observation can be made regarding the GBP/USD currency pair. Despite retracing from its recent peak around $1.28, the pair has still managed to register a notable 3% gain over the past month. Notably, the British pound has also exhibited strength against the euro, appreciating by more than 1.6% during the same period. This is particularly noteworthy when considering the past situation in September, where the pound was nearing parity with the dollar as UK Gilt yields surged. Presently, it is trading close to the $1.30 mark. This suggests that the foreign exchange market does not currently reflect a prevailing perception of an imminent economic disaster for the UK. In the realm of EUR/USD, Tuesday presents challenges for the currency pair to gain significant momentum. It remains confined within a narrow trading range, with the pair hovering just above the 1.0900 level during the Asian session. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart Following its recent decline, the US Dollar (USD) is currently in a phase of recovery. Last Friday, it reached a low that had not been witnessed in over a month. However, the USD has been displaying a gradual strengthening trend for the past three consecutive days. This resurgence of the USD poses a challenge for the EUR/USD currency pair, causing it to retreat to the latest level of 102.55. EUR/USD daily chart However, despite the prevailing challenges, the downside for the EUR/USD pair seems to find some support, at least temporarily, thanks to the hawkish stance adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB's optimistic outlook serves as a factor that mitigates the potential decline of the pair. Furthermore, the current subdued sentiment in equity markets works in favor of the US Dollar's role as a safe-haven currency. This situation, in turn, limits the upside potential for the EUR/USD pair. Concerns regarding a potential global economic slowdown, particularly in China, cast a shadow over reports of China contemplating a comprehensive stimulus package to bolster its economy. These worries continue to dampen investor sentiment. Even the recent decision by the People's Bank of China to lower the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Tuesday fails to alleviate anxieties or provide significant momentum to the major currency pair. It is noteworthy that the ECB has recently raised interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, propelling them to the highest level witnessed in 22 years. The central bank has also emphasized the necessity of further rate hikes to attain the Eurozone's medium-term inflation target of 2%. XAU/USD daily chart In contrast, gold has undergone substantial volatility in the preceding month. Despite the dissemination of recent data and central bank determinations, this precious metal has remained confined within a narrow price range of $1,940 to $1,980, demonstrating minimal signs of breaking out in either direction in the immediate future. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that market conditions can swiftly shift. The current week is particularly eventful, as it is characterized by a flurry of central bank interest rate decisions and a multitude of speeches by Federal Reserve officials. These upcoming events have the potential to introduce new dynamics and variables into the financial markets.
by FOREXN1
11
EUR/USD flirts with 1.08 leading into FOMC and ECB meetingsEUR/USD broke above the 1.0800 handle yesterday thanks to a weak US inflation report, yet price action now finds itself back beneath that key level leading into today's FOMC meeting (and tomorrow's ECB meeting). But as the pair has risen over the past two weeks, it may take a particularly dovish meeting from the Fed to drive it materially higher. Therefore, we're looking for evidence of a swing high and for a move back towards the 1.0700 handle. A bearish divergence is forming on the RSI 4-hour chart and we've identified two resistance zone around the 1.0800 and 1.0860 area we'd consider fading into, or seeking evidence of a swing high. Otherwise, a stop above 1.0800 could suffice should momentum turn lower without breaking back above 1.0800.
Short
by CityIndex
Bulls circle USD/JPY ahead of the FOMC meetingWhilst the US dollar has mostly retraced over the past couple of weeks against FX majors, it has held its own against then Yen. In fact, momentum is now turning higher after forming a triple bottom ~139 and breaking above a retracement line. The most traded price during the prior consolidation is 139.55, which could provide a level of support if prices retrace ahead of its next leg higher. Take note that overnight implied volatility has blown out ahead of the FOMC, so be prepared for some volatility before the next major move takes place.
Long
by CityIndex
✏️ PPI & FOMC's effect on $GOLDWell, as you can see , yesterday, after the announcement of the CPI and the release of the initial excitement, the price fell and entered the modified order block that we specified (from $1939 to $1946), after the price fell to $1940, we saw that the price With a corrective move, it grew up to $1953, now the price has entered the range of $1946 again, and considering that today we have important news ahead, we have to wait for the next price move! Personally, I expect the initial fall of the dollar index, which can cause the growth of gold! Don't Forghet To Push The Boost (Like) Button and Follow Me for More ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
35
12/06/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $27401.2 Last weeks low: $26363.7 Midpoint: $25326.2 A massive week in the markets this week: Tuesday - US inflation data to be released tomorrow (Inflation rate YoY, MoM and core inflation YoY.) Wednesday - PPI MoM, FED interest decision, FOMC economic projections & FED conference. Thursday - Initial jobless claims & US retail sales All these events happening so closely together signals huge volatility to be expected. This coupled with the SEC news the crypto space is balancing on a knife edge. We've already seen alts bleed extensively but BTC and even ETH have yet to seen similar sell-offs. Perhaps we will see it this week. As it stands price is near last weeks low, with the incoming volatility I think we can safely assume that price will break lower, it's a question of how far below it will go.
by ProR35
$SPY - A Blip to the Extended RallyAMEX:SPY continues its strong stock rally following the #FOMC announcement, squeezing shorts and maintaining a daily relative strength (RS) of 77 as bond yields fall. Momentum remains robust, but technicals are starting to suggest a pullback is overdue. Pre-market conditions appear relatively flat, so we'll have to wait and see. I expect a meaningful decline towards the $430 level starting next week with TVC:VIX showing signs of a spike and especially after witnessing a month of upside movement.
AMEX:SPY
by theapearmy
GOLD: awaiting the FOMC decisionIn a few hours we will know if FOMC decides to raise interest rates by 25bp or if there will be a pause in monetary policy. Having said that, if we look at 1H chart we still have the same technical structure (see analysis below), which is still valid at the moment. With this in mind it would be great if TVC:GOLD triggered a swing as shown on chart (first bearish then bullish), I say that because I really like the Pin Bar at 1,971 . What will happen on gold market? In the short term it's hard to say, but today's session will certainly be our driver for a few sessions/weeks. PREVIOUS ANALYSIS (Click on Chart below) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (Long term) (Click on Chart below) PRE-FOMC ANALYSIS (Click on Chart below) Trade with care! Like 🚀 if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheAnonymousBanker
3
FOMC REPORT : Stocks, Bonds, BTC & GoldHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈📉 Did you miss the 2023 June 13/14 FOMC meeting? No worries, CryptoChecks' got you covered. Here's a summary of what happened and how the outcome of this meeting may affect the respective markets. First, let's clearly understand the FOMC meeting and it's importance to investors. The Federal Reserve, also known as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It guides the country's monetary policy and influences the economy. The Fed's announcements and statements are closely watched by traders and investors because they can have a significant impact on financial markets. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a committee within the Fed that makes decisions on monetary policy. It consists of twelve members, including the seven members of the Board of Governors and five Reserve Bank presidents. They meet eight times a year to discuss and set policies. FOMC meetings are important events for traders because any changes in interest rates can affect various economic factors, such as employment, inflation, and exchange rates. The meetings occur every six weeks, and some include a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and a press conference by the Fed Chair. Traders pay close attention to the Fed's decisions and statements because they provide valuable information about the state of the economy and future policy changes. Now, let's look at what was said in this FOMC meeting: The Federal Reserve decided to pause its series of interest rate hikes at its June meeting, following ten consecutive increases. While the central bank expressed optimism about curbing inflation, the battle is not yet over, and further rate hikes may be on the horizon. Important facts: 🏛 The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) announced that the federal funds target rate would remain unchanged within a range of 5.0% to 5.25% during the June meeting. This marks the first policy meeting since the start of the Fed's tightening cycle in March 2022 in which interest rates were not raised. 🏛 The Fed confirmed its plan to continue reducing its balance sheet by allowing up to $60 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off each month, employing quantitative tightening to combat inflation. 🏛 Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the challenges during the press conference and highlighted the uncertainties surrounding the effects of monetary policy on the economy and potential credit tightening headwinds. Despite the pause, it does not indicate the completion of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, and further increases may be necessary. 🏛 The Fed has been attempting to navigate the challenge of curbing inflation without causing a recession by gradually raising interest rates. Higher rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, slowing down economic activity. 🏛 The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.1% annually in May, down from the 4.9% gain in April, which was the highest in 40 years. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, increased by 4.7% in April, slightly up from March but lower than the 2022 peak of 5.3%. The long-term target for core PCE inflation is 2%. 🏛 The tight U.S. labor market has posed challenges in the fight against inflation. In May, the U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, and wages increased by 4.3% year-over-year. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% but remained near historic lows. 🏛 Powell indicated that further rate increases might be necessary to gradually bring inflation down to the 2% target. _____________________________ Overall, the potential impact on stocks, commodities, and bonds could look as follow: Stocks: The impact on stocks can be more nuanced. In general, a steady interest rate environment can be positive for stocks. Lower rates can make equities more attractive as an investment option compared to bonds or other fixed-income assets. It can encourage borrowing for business expansion and investment, potentially boosting corporate earnings and stock prices. However, if the market was anticipating a rate cut or an increase, a decision to keep rates unchanged might cause some short-term volatility or adjustments in stock prices as investors reassess their expectations. This could positively impact stock prices, especially in sectors that are sensitive to interest rates, such as technology, consumer discretionary, and housing. Commodities: When interest rates remain steady, it can provide stability and potentially support commodity prices. Lower interest rates generally make borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic activity and increase demand for commodities. Conversely, higher interest rates can have the opposite effect, potentially dampening demand and putting downward pressure on commodity prices. Bonds: The pause in interest rate hikes may be favorable for bond prices in the short term. When interest rates remain stable or decline, existing bonds with higher coupon rates become relatively more attractive, leading to increased demand and potentially higher bond prices. Lower interest rates also reduce borrowing costs for companies, which may improve their creditworthiness and decrease the risk of default, making corporate bonds more appealing to investors. Now, you may be wondering to yourself... despite the above; why is Gold (and BTC) falling instead of rising? 💭💭💭 EXTRA for EXPERTS: The fact that the US House of Representatives have passed US debt ceiling bill five days ahead of the deadline could be a reason behind the falling price of Gold. With this in mind, it becomes easier to see why the gold market could have slipped. Still, rampant inflation will probably keep a floor under the gold market and as such; a short term drop to next immediate support zone is the most probable. While the true utility of the metal as a hedge against rising prices is a subject of endless economic debate, many investors insist that it is. It’s notable that prices remain close to historic high levels despite much higher interest rates more or less everywhere. The backdrop of war in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, and the durability of post-covid recovery are also clearly supportive of perceived ‘haven assets’ like gold, silver and bitcoin. Is it possible that the large, corporate investors are just countertrading the bullish retail investors in the commodities market at this point? The odds of a July rate hike are at about 61%, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Investors anticipate a 61.5% chance of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by a quarter point at its July 25-26 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The metric hasn’t moved much since Tuesday, even as the central bank indicated in its dot plot on Wednesday that two more rate hikes are coming up. To understand the relationship between commodities, cryptocurrencies, bonds, and stocks can help you clearly plan your next move after the FOMC meeting. Commodities and Stocks: Inverse Relationship: Historically, there has been an inverse relationship between commodity prices and stock prices. When commodity prices rise, it can lead to higher production costs for companies, affecting profit margins and potentially dampening stock performance. Conversely, when commodity prices decline, it can lower input costs for companies, potentially benefiting their profitability and supporting stock prices. Cryptocurrencies and Stocks: Limited Relationship: Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, have gained prominence as a separate asset class and are not directly tied to traditional stock markets. As such, the relationship between cryptocurrencies and stocks is generally limited. However, during periods of market volatility or significant news events, there can be some short-term correlations as investors seek alternative assets or sentiment spills over from one market to another. But in terms of long-term correlations, the two asset classes have shown relatively independent behavior. Bonds and Stocks: Inverse Relationship: Bonds and stocks typically exhibit an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, bond yields increase, making fixed-income investments more attractive relative to stocks. This can lead to a shift in investor preferences from stocks to bonds, potentially putting downward pressure on stock prices. Conversely, when interest rates decline, bond yields decrease, making stocks relatively more attractive, which can contribute to higher stock prices. The relationship between bonds and commodities is typically more complex and can be influenced by several factors: Inflation Expectations: Commodities are often considered an inflation hedge because their prices tend to rise during inflationary periods. When inflation expectations increase, commodity prices may go up, which can lead to higher inflation-adjusted yields on bonds. In this case, there may be a positive correlation between commodities and bond yields. Economic Growth: Commodities, especially those related to industrial sectors like energy and metals, are sensitive to economic growth. When the economy is booming, demand for commodities tends to rise, potentially leading to higher prices. This can be associated with higher inflation expectations and upward pressure on bond yields. Hence, there can be a positive correlation between commodities and bond yields during periods of economic expansion. Safe-Haven Demand : Bonds, especially government bonds, are considered safe-haven assets that investors flock to during times of uncertainty or market turbulence. In contrast, commodities, which are more directly influenced by supply and demand dynamics, may not exhibit the same safe-haven characteristics. Therefore, during risk-off periods when investors seek safety, there can be an inverse relationship between commodities and bond yields. Interest Rates and Opportunity Cost: Changes in interest rates can impact both bonds and commodities. When interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding commodities, which do not pay interest or dividends, increases. This can potentially lead to downward pressure on commodity prices. Conversely, when interest rates decline, the opportunity cost of holding commodities decreases, which can be supportive of commodity prices. In this case, there can be an inverse relationship between bond yields and commodity prices. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We appreciate your support ! CryptoCheck _____________________ AMEX:SPY TVC:US10Y TVC:GOLD INDEX:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT NYSE:GOLD CURRENCYCOM:GOLD
AMEX:SPY
by CryptoCheck-
29
The Roller Coaster is always a Bumpy ride 🎢The Market can feed everyone but it's not not the market's duty. The market's duty is to provide a playground for a fair auction to take place. The conditions and the rules at the playgorund change from time to time but principles never cease to exist. The market needs liquidity to trend and it's the losing trader's emotion that fuels that. The market will achieve it's own goals just as mother nature and the dragon of time will eat us all. The market is a neutral entity and not one of us as participants are immune to it's wrath. Respect the market as it can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Pay close attention to money management and/or Position sizing because it will help you attain your goals. With all that said I have outlined my favorite level's on the chart. There are traders buying the high and the market will not make it easy on them. Or maybe the market breaks everything like the night king in Game of thrones. All you should do is take good risk/reward ideas. Create a system suited towards your personalities and inclinations. Orient yourself to what is most comfortable but be pro-active with your entries. Cut your losses short and let you profits run. Don't cut your winners just because you want to be right about the direction. Pay yourself for the time you spend in front of the screen. I have other obligations but the way I would go about trading interest rates would be to wait 1Hr after the news. Once the market has decided the direction, I lower my position size and follow my system's entry technique for trading with momentum. Additionally, If the market reacts off one of my level's I will anticipate a double top/double bottom. Safe Trading.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Unveiling the Impact of #FOMC Decisions on #WTI, #Gold, #USD Today was #FOMC! I'm Sure most of us had same experience on BLACKBULL:WTI and $OANDA:XAUUSD. I Just wanted to write about What is #FOMC and It's impact on #WTI, #Gold and #USD, Maybe somebody has lots of questions about that, so I try to do my best regarding captioned subject. The Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) plays a crucial role in shaping monetary policy in the United States. The decisions made by this committee have significant implications for various financial markets, including commodities like West Texas Intermediate (#WTI) crude oil, #gold, and the U.S. dollar (#USD). Understanding the impact of FOMC decisions on these assets is essential for traders, investors, and market participants. The FOMC's Role and Decision-Making Process: The FOMC is composed of members from the Federal Reserve System who are responsible for setting monetary policy. These members regularly convene to assess economic conditions, review data, and deliberate on the best course of action. One of the most critical outcomes of these meetings is the announcement of the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs and has a broad impact on the financial landscape. BLACKBULL:WTI : FOMC decisions have a notable impact on WTI crude oil prices. Changes in interest rates directly affect borrowing costs for businesses, which, in turn, influence their operations and investment decisions. When interest rates decrease, economic growth is often stimulated, leading to increased demand for oil and potentially driving up prices. Conversely, an increase in interest rates may have the opposite effect, dampening economic activity and reducing oil demand. Additionally, FOMC decisions indirectly impact WTI crude oil prices through their effects on the U.S. dollar. Since oil is globally priced in dollars, fluctuations in the dollar's value can influence the purchasing power of oil-importing countries. A weaker dollar can make oil relatively cheaper, increasing demand and potentially bolstering #WTI prices. OANDA:XAUUSD : The relationship between FOMC decisions and gold prices is complex and multi-faceted. Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset and a store of value during times of economic uncertainty. When the FOMC adopts a dovish or accommodative monetary policy stance, such as lowering interest rates or implementing quantitative easing measures, it diminishes the attractiveness of holding U.S. dollars. Consequently, investors may seek refuge in #gold, leading to an increase in gold prices. Conversely, a hawkish stance by the FOMC, signaled by raising interest rates or indicating tighter monetary policy, can strengthen the U.S. dollar and exert downward pressure on #gold prices. As interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not yield interest or dividends, increases. This can make alternative investments more appealing, potentially reducing demand for gold. PEPPERSTONE:USDX : FOMC decisions have a direct and significant impact on the value of the #USD. Changes in interest rates influence the relative attractiveness of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, which in turn affects currency exchange rates. A rise in interest rates can make the #USD more appealing to investors seeking higher yields, potentially strengthening the currency. Conversely, a reduction in interest rates may lead to a decline in the value of the U.S. dollar. Moreover, FOMC decisions and accompanying statements provide insights into the central bank's economic outlook. Favorable economic projections and indications of a tightening monetary policy can bolster confidence in the #USD. Conversely, cautious or pessimistic remarks may weaken the currency. Final Words: FOMC decisions have a substantial impact on #WTI crude oil, #gold, and the value of the #USD. Changes in interest rates directly influence borrowing costs, economic growth, and investment decisions, thereby impacting #WTI crude oil prices. Additionally, the effects of FOMC decisions on the U.S. dollar indirectly influence #WTI crude oil This article serves as a comprehensive guide, offering valuable insights that will enhance your understanding of the FOMC and its impact on financial markets AND May your journey through the intricacies of the FOMC empower you with a solid strategy and guide you towards successful trades, or encourage you to exercise caution and refrain from trading during these significant events. Wishing you the best of luck in your endeavors!
BLACKBULL:WTIEducation
by POUSHEINI
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC – 14/06/23 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ll start by saying we’ve had a decent week so far as well as month and will not be wanting to give anything back to the market. For that reason, we’re sharing the levels we have for the potential move and the regions to look for a reaction in price. It is expected to move, especially during the press conference which will take place after the statement. We would say best practice is to wait for them to take the price where they want, let is settle and look for signs of a reversal before jumping into a trade. We’ve seen a big range forming here over the last few weeks which has been used to accumulate orders, maybe now enough for Gold to find its feet and make the move many traders are anticipating. We have the immediate levels of 1950-55 order region which we are now above and potentially looking for the price to settle pre-event around here. We have the higher levels of 1980-85 which we were looking for on the KOG Report so target region for longs that are held from below could be around that level. If price is driven up into that region, we would be looking for resistance higher to potentially see a reaction in price and a confirmed reversal before even attempting to short it. On the flip side, we have order region 1930-35 and below that the extreme level of 1915-07 on the break. If the price is driven down, then we will potentially be looking here for a reaction in price and upon confirmed reversal signs look to take the long trade back up. As we’ve said above, we’re sharing our view with everyone but please do your own research. We’re not likely to enter any new trades, rather let the runners we have open run or close at break even. The best trades and set ups will come once the price has been taken to it’s level. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
$SPY Intra-Day Bearish SignalsIn terms of market direction, the short term trend is bullish, as the 9ema is trading above the 20ema. Moreover, the medium term trend is bullish, as the 20ema is trading above the 50ema. Finally, the long term trend is bullish, as the 50ema is trading above the 200ema. As a friendly reminder, given that all three trends are bullish, it would be prudent to think long and hard about whether or not there is truly a technical basis for entering a bearish swing trade at this time. That being said, how strong is the current trend? Notably, we closed above not only last week's high, but also the previous trading day's high as well. This is an indication that the bullish trend is rather strong. Another way that traders analyze the strength of a trend is by appeal to the Average Directional Index (ADX), in which high readings are suggestive of strong trends and low readings are suggestive of weak trends or chop. At the moment, the ADX has a value of 50.25, indicating an extremely strong trend that is likely soon approaching exhaustion and at risk of correction or reversal. We also have to consider the two main momentum oscillators: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator. Currently, the RSI reading is 83.57, indicating that the market is technically overbought and may be due for a correction or trend reversal. For its part, the Stochastic Oscillator currently has a reading of 96, indicating that the market is technically overbought and may be due for a correction or trend reversal. Beyond the momentum oscillators, we also need to familiarize ourselves with the relationship between current price and the Bollinger Bands. At the moment, price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the uptrend may soon encounter resistance. With regard to the question of trend reversal, we need to check for any crossovers between certain indicators and their respective moving averages. Currently, the RSI is above its 14-candle moving average, indicating ongoing short-term trend strength. Currently, the Stochastic Oscillator is above its 3-candle moving average, indicating ongoing short-term trend strength. Finally, the MACD is above the signal, indicating ongoing short-term trend strength. Crosssover analysis is not the only way to test for potential trend reversal. Another strategy involves looking for divergence between indicator readings and price action. At this time, there is bearish divergence between RSI and price action. Moreover, there is currently bearish divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator and price action. Finally, at this time there is currently no divergence between MACD and price action. -------- Short levels: 439.04, 441.07, 443.11, 445.14
AMEX:SPYShort
by StockJustice