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XAUUSD Weekly Forecast | 22nd May 2023Fundamental Backdrop The USD is expected to pause interest rates, causing investors to shift their money to Gold. Technical Confluences Resistance at 2001 Current support at 1981 Major support at 1960 Idea We could possibly see price retrace back up to retest the resistance at 2001. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OlympusLab
DXY Weekly Forecast | 22nd May 2023Fundamental Backdrop The Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease from 50.2 to 50.0 which shows contraction in economic health. The Flash Services PMI is also expected to drop from 53.6 to 52.6. The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Thursday. The FED will talk about future interest rates which was previously indicated to be on pause. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance at 103.500 Next resistance at 105.000 Minor support at 102.765 Major support at 102.200 Idea With the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI expected to drop, it could cause the DXY to drop further towards the 102.700 minor support. If the FED chooses to pause or indicate pausing of interest rates, it can cause the DXY to drop even further towards the 102.200 major support level. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
Frothy TimesLast Wednesday, inflation prints (CPI) came in below expectations of a ‘hot’ print which would have likely indicated that the Federal Reserve will continue tightening rates. Cryptocurrency and equities markets reacted positively while bond yields dropped. These numbers are expected to persuade the Fed to lean more towards a "pause" stance for its next FOMC meeting in June. Meanwhile, markets are still concerned about the debt ceiling crisis as negotiations have not shown much progress as of yet. Despite the name, this crisis is actually more of a political issue as it hinges on a piece of must-pass legislation which would allow the federal government to increase its borrowing to fund its spending obligations. The Democrats currently have control of the Senate, while the Republicans have gained a majority in the House of Representatives. As such, they have used the debt ceiling as a political bargaining chip, pushing for cuts on what they deem as "irresponsible spending". Unless a compromise is reached, it’s likely that caution will echo throughout markets. Currently, the U.S. is forecast to hit its debt limit in early June. If the United States defaults on its debt for the first time in history, tens of billions of dollars in payments for Social Security benefits, payments to Medicaid providers, federal salaries, veterans' benefits, and other programs could potentially be at risk. As a result, investors are finding it challenging to decide on a trade amidst the uncertainty surrounding the debt default and resolution. Macroeconomic theory would predict that a resolution to increase the debt ceiling would reign in government spending, thus putting downward pressure on bond yields, thereby making the purchase of bonds at the current yields more attractive. Additionally, S&P500 earnings yields currently sit around 5.5% while risk-free 1-month U.S. Treasury Bills are paying the same. This makes holding stocks potentially less enticing to many investors and could serve as a rationale for shorting equities. From a technical perspective, since Bitcoin lost the $30K level, it has proven difficult to reclaim. The market has tested the level twice and has so far struggled to break it. In order for the next leg up to commence, Bitcoin will first need to reclaim $30K. In our previous market update, we noted the convergence of MA9 and MA50, signalling a potential crossover. Last Tuesday, that crossing finally occurred. When a fast moving average (MA9) crosses below a slower moving average (MA50), markets perceive it as a bearish signal. Another important indicator to take a look at is the MACD. Last week, it remained relatively neutral. Although the MACD line has been below its signal line, the spread between them has been quite small, represented by the short bars on the histogram. However, recently the two lines have begun to diverge. This is another bearish signal. The last time this happened, Bitcoin lost $30K and fell towards $27K. Although technical indicators aren’t always accurate at predicting market direction, most indicators are pointing towards an increase in bearish momentum across the crypto market in the coming days. Finally, over recent weeks, the market has seen a variety of meme coins rally upwards. During phases of cycles, ‘meme coin season’ has often served as an indicator of a local top. Back in 2021, shortly after Doge reached its all-time high, Bitcoin capitulated from $60,000 to around $30,000. With this 'silly season' firmly upon us, current market sentiment feels rather frothy.
by Coinrule
1
$NQ1! - Busy week ahead! CME_MINI:NQ1! - Busy week ahead! We've got a busy calendar ahead of us and remember it's first day of the month - May a Lot of US Data! 1. ISM 2. JOLTS 3. ADP 4. FOMC 5. NFP Now that's a busy week and I know for some, they will be stepping back and not trading during a hectic week ahead, but I do feel there will be plenty of opportunities. Now, banking sector is at the key spot light ahead of this week mentions of First Republic Bank will be acquired by JPMorgan after rescue efforts fail. It's not first time this year, we've heard a bank go under, and unfortunately that's part of the cycle as rates head higher, a lot of sectors get hurt, look at real estate and this is what I mentioned months prior - I well recommend researching more in depth. Keep in mind FED want a 2% target for inflation...Expectation is for the FOMC to lift rates by 25bps at its May meeting, now the real question is will they pause after this hike or carry on, whilst we got credit tightening... Now technically looking at NQ Highs: 13391 Lows: 12787 At the moment we've got Kangaroo action until a break to either side - If we are to break the highs, I expect next area of interest to be 13660 areas. However, we are to break the lows, I expect 12481 areas. NQ has held relatively well within the conditions we are in, interesting times ahead. Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Trade_Journal
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Will we break the range?Hi Traders! EURUSD is very quiet and looking for a direction. This may depend on fundamental news out later today with the FOMC and ECB speaking this evening. On a technical outlook, we have a bearish price channel with lower highs and lower lows, there is strong buying pressure around the 1.09630 area and strong selling pressure around the 1.10950 area. Whether we breakout to the upside or downside may depend on what we hear from both the FOMC and ECB. We will be listening closely to what they say and keep you updated with how the market behaves to both their respective announcements. Please make sure to follow, like and comment. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 8th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop Overall, EURUSD continues to be a bullish case on the larger timeframe. There are good reasons to believe in a bull case due to the interest rate differential between EUR and USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently hovering around the previous swing high and bullish momentum has reduced to consolidation in price. Support marked out at 1.0755 where price could potentially retrace to. 2. On the daily timeframe of EURUSD, bullish pressure is waning and a deep retracement on EURUSD could be due soon. Idea Price can continue bullish to tap into the weekly high at 1.10922 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 8th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop With the volatility in place from last week's FOMC and NFP prints, the market has yet to stabilise and we could see volatility carried over from last week to the market. Technical Confluences 1. On the daily timeframe on XAUUSD, price has tapped onto the key resistance level at 2050 before rejecting. 2. An area of support at 1959 is crucial to look at amidst the high levels of liquidity existing above this support. Idea With plenty of liquidity near the support, price could potentially tap area at 1959 before heading up. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OlympusLab
DXY Potential Short Forecast | 8th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop We had the FOMC and NFP news release last week. The FOMC increased its rate hike by 25 basis points as expected to 5.25%. The DXY dropped to a low of 101 after FED Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the central bank's efforts to tame inflation is seeing some progress, also giving indication that it is nearing the end of its hiking cycle soon. Although the NFP results were better than expected, increasing by 253,000 jobs last month, exceeding economists’ expectations, and the unemployment rate dropping to a 53-year low of 3.4%. The results were overshadowed by traders watching for the Fed’s possible interest rate cut or pause which caused the DXY to weaken further after the NFP news release. Technical Confluences 1. Near-term support at 101 2. Next key support at 100 Idea The 1st support is at the 101 round number. We are looking for price to continue bearish towards that area. A break below 100.800 could potentially bring price towards the next strong key support of 100. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
1
woo usdt perpetual Hello fellow traders Greetings from team Trading The Tides lets talk about Woo which we been trading for the last 3 days and made around 30% in profits . today as the FOMC is really close and there many crucial Data down the line . First of all specifically today I don't see much buying in WOO , secondly Woo is creating more and more resistance to the upside , which make me think not to trade woo until it goes back to support and on atleast 15 min time frame creates a wick which in other sense gives idea about institution getting in to take the prices higher , so I will wait till then . My second opinion about woo is to break the lows of the symmetrical triangle on 4h , 1h and then we can plan a short trade again on the basis of breakdown structure with proper risk n reward . I don't take more than 2% SL so if the trade goes opposite , I will accept the SL and look out for other opportunities . Note : I am just a technical , fundamental analyst and day trader . Any info given is not a financial advice , i am only posting what i think is right , feel free to guide if u think i am wrong plz . Thanks .
by TradingTheTides
My today idea of Gold's possible moves 05052023Gold prices continued their upward push within the expected bullish technical path mentioned in the previous analysis, in which we relied on the confirmation of gold prices breaching the resistance of the symmetrical triangle, as we explained yesterday, heading to touch the official target of the previous analysis 2045, recording its highest level at $2067 per ounce. Technically, and by looking at the 4-hour chart, the price is stable intraday above the 2010 resistance level, accompanied by the continuation of obtaining a positive motive from the simple moving averages that continue to hold the price from below, in addition to the stability of the relative strength index above the mid-line 50. The bullish trend is the most preferred during today’s session’s trading. Still, with careful consideration, we find the stochastic indicator around the overbought areas. We may witness some fluctuation until the official trend is obtained, pushing gold to provide some bearish tendency to re-test 2010 before resuming the rise again, knowing that the trend is bullish. Its goals are 2070. Its break will lead gold to continue its strong rise towards 2098. Closing an hourly candle below 2010 may lead the price towards 1980. Note: The level of risk may be high today, and all scenarios are likely to occur, and careful consideration is required, noting that the current trading levels may not match the risk rate compared to the expected returns. Note: Today, we are awaiting high-impact data FOMC, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by nasirdxb
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 5/05US indexes again came under pressure after European Indexes went lower for the session. Concerns over US regional banks and contagion into the banking sector weighed heavily on the US open. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points as expected to follow in the footsteps of the US Fed Reserve and the RBA. Traders may be more contained today ahead of the key US employment data just prior to the US open. Expecting a weaker open for Asian markets with the ASX200 to open down 25/30 points, the Hang Seng to open relatively flat while the Nikkei will still have to wait to play catchup as the underlying index is closed until Monday. With Global banks still raising interest rates and economies potentially slowing down, I expect bulls will have life more difficult in the near term. Focus will be on economic data to see how the US economy is fairing. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
2
🔥 Bitcoin To $100k This Year? Rising From The Ashes Of BanksIn this analysis I want to talk about the possibility of Bitcoin going to 100k this year. This is a speculative analysis, but still based on real-world macro. Take it with a grain of salt. Bitcoin going to 100k in the middle of a banking and inflation crisis, with a FED that's increasing the interest rates? I would've said it's impossible. Not only that, but it's in stark contrast with the usual 4-year halving cycles. However, something has changed over the last months. In March, during the Silicon Valley Bank's crisis, we saw a massive bullish move. This had to do with the fact that people lost confidence in (regional) banks, and decided to get self-custody over their own money and buy Bitcoin (and gold). Since then, BTC has been trading bullish alongside Gold, hedging against the risk of further banking failures. More banks have gone under over the last few days. Signature Bank and First Republic bank went down and had to be sold and/or saved. 3/4 of the biggest banks that ever went under, went under in 2023. While the stock markets sold off over the last few days, BTC gained strength. Most notable was the reaction after the interest rate hike yesterday. The SP500 fell from a cliff, whilst Bitcoin saw a huge move upwards. Check out the analysis below where I go more into detail on why this seemingly inverse relationship exists: Albeit a small probability, I think that the idea of BTC going to 100k this year is not even that far-fetched. In my eyes, the banking sector is far from safe, especially now that the FED has increased the interest rates yet again and is very unlikely to reduce the rates in the coming months. More banks failing means more risk to your money, means more people buying BTC and gaining self-custody over their own money. And yes, more banks are failing as we speak. PacWest Bancorp has seen a 75% drop since the first of May. Smaller, regional banks falling are bullish, but won't get BTC to 100k. There is a possibility of the largest banks failing, think JPMorgan or Bank of America. And if they do, we can experience a massive influx of buying that we've never seen before, purely based on fear. In normal circumstances, the FED will aggressively cut the interest rates and start printing money to safe the banks. They can't really do that anymore because it will cause inflation. However, they most likely will because saving one of the largest US banks is going to be more important than inflation, at least in the short-term. In case you enjoyed this analysis, please give it a like. Feel free to share your thoughts below 🙏.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
31
GOLD → A bullish breakdown of the channel. Upcoming news Gold broke through the 2000 resistance zone on yesterday's news and was a bit unpredictable, strengthening for 2015, as on the older timeframe the prerequisites were only for a decline. There is a lot of news today that will throw the market into turmoil. Non-farm employment expectations from ADP are hard to predict as the reaction will depend on the actual figure, which we do not yet know. The PMI is expected to be more positive than in the previous period. FOMC Expectations: -BlackRock and former U.S. Treasury Secretary expect that the problem with banks and the government debt ceiling will not prevent the Fed from raising rates today. -Consensus: The Fed will raise rates by 0.25% at today's meeting and then take a pause. -Fedwatch: markets are laying down a 91% chance of a 0.25% Fed rate hike in May. All this suggests that a slight strengthening of the dollar is likely to follow, but, again, the situation is complicated, we'll keep an eye on the press releases. Strong resistance: 2019, 2025 and 2032. Strong support: 2010, 2000, the boundary of the downward channel. Gold is showing us a positive trend. If fundamentals show bullish potential for the dollar, gold will return to the correction rate format. But technically gold has accumulated a lot of potential, and a break-down of the resistance shows us the direction in which the futures are going to realize this potential. Regards, R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
29