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FOMC

DXY Post FOMC Potential Forecast | 24th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of instability in the market due to the SVB crisis and other banks being heavily affected by it. 2. The Fed hiked rates by 25 bps 3. The Fed also cautioned about the recent banking crisis and indicated that hikes are nearing an end. 4. The Fed's move may indicate that the economy could be stronger and that the currency could weaken soon. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently in a bearish trend. 2. Well below the Ichimoku cloud, signifying bearish intent. 3. Next support at 101.800 Idea Looking for the price to head towards the support at 101.800 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
3/23 Watchlist + NotesSPY - wicked day with FOMC. I was slightly bullish for the 3rd day in a row going into today. We saw some upside before the news was released. SPY ended up tanking with the news results and closed as a super bearish engulfing day. Because of this wild movement, we had 0 inside days show up on the scanner, so for tomorrow I will mainly just be watching SPY, GME, and my scanner intraday for some hourly/15 min setups. My prediction for SPY tomorrow: SPY is incredibly bearish for tomorrow. I am expecting us to test the 390 level and eventually break lower at some point during tomorrow's session Best play from my previous watchlist: MRNA - we had a 3-1 daily and I was hoping for some upside on this one, but we got downside instead. Not surprising given that we had tested a FVG 2 days ago and rejected it, and also just the fact that the markets tanked so much in the afternoon. MRNA still played out beautifully though if you entered when we broke yesterday's low. Cons ran roughly 30% from entry to where my personal TP would have realistically been just looking back at the candles and today's movement. Ended up running 57% at peak from entry, which actually happened to be where the cons closed at for the day. Additional notes: I find that days following FOMC tend to have decent price action, and I tend to be green most days following FOMC news. With this in mind, I am looking forward to trading tomorrow. As always, best of luck
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
FOMC news release, preparing for short positions BTC ended up printing a swing pattern failure. So I am now preparing for shorts positions and this chart shows when I am anticipating to find my best entries on those. This chart also shows that I am not looking to take any long positions unless we see a strong move higher form the buyers. So I am preparing for short positions now but waiting for the right signal from BTC. And when it’s time to enter, we need to have positions ready. This may happy overnight or when I’m not able to post so wanted to share some setups that I am watching. The idea here is NOT to enter all of them, but to choose the ones that look the best when BTC is in it’s rejection area or sell pressure is showing up. The best way to manage these is to set alerts on each one on TradingView so you are alerted when each is near our target zone. I won’t be providing much detail on each of these setups as they are all very similar. Really just wanting to see price action come back and bearishly retest the recent resistance.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by Obscure_Trading
FOMC Price Reaction Analysis, Support & Resistance, $SPY/$QQQ- Looking for a hourly Bear flag on SPY and QQQ after this huge move down. - XLF and KRE top watch to see if we break fear lows/52 week low. Fear would likely come back in if we do break the lows - looking for SOXX/SMH to go from lead bull turning into lead bear - Rate hikes is a head wind more for QQQ then SPY, so after Powell saying no rate cuts this year, we would likely see QQQ lead to the down side as well just like it lead to the upside. - FOMC reaction day after is always the real move, so tomorrow we need to see if bears can follow through or todays just a small reaction move.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ArcadiaTrading
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 23/03US Share markets indexes move lower after the US Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected. There are a number of concerns that the market sees and is reacting to as risk assets take a hit. The US Fed showed concern for the banking crisis and expect credit conditions to tighten which does not bode well for growth in an interest rate raising environment. I expect that we will see more risk off trading in the coming days and will see Europe play catchup with a move lower on open in the coming session. UK CPI showed inflation is moving up which I expect will cap any rally into the FTSE100 (UK100 Index). Asian markets will open weaker to follow on from the US session. A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
🔥 Bitcoin Short-Term Bullish Triangle Before FOMC MeetingBTC has been trading inside a bullish triangle pattern over the last couple of days. With the FOMC meeting around the corner, I'm expecting some volatile price action today and tomorrow. In my view, it's likely that we're going to hit $28,600 today. Whether it's a fake pump before the FOMC meeting (and a dump after), or we get a bullish reaction and move up significantly. The $28,400 area is proving to be a strong resistance at this point. Wait for a clear break out, ideally with high volume.
Long
by FieryTrading
9
DXY Potential Forecast| Pre FOMC | 23rd March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of instability in the market due to the SVB crisis and other banks being heavily affected by it. 2. The Fed is incentivised to either pause rates or maintain at 25bps due to the current instability in the market. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently in a bearish trend. 2. Price is near the H4 support area at 102.65. 3. Well below the ichimoku cloud, signifying bearish intent. Idea Looking for price to form a new lower low at 100.821. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
BTC - Why 30,000 Is A Strong Rejection ⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per my last analysis, we know that BTC broke above the big inverse head and shoulders neckline. 📈 Thus, the momentum has been shifted from bearish to bullish. BTC is currently bullish trading inside the red rising broadening wedge pattern. 📌 Here is why the 30,000 is a strong rejection: 1- Round number => 30,000 2- Classic Support Zone Turned Resistance from Weekly timeframe 3- Supply zone marked on the chart 4- Intersecting with the upper red trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance 📉 Hence, as BTC approaches the 30k - 32k zone, we will be expecting the bears to take over for a medium-term correction. 📌 For the bulls to take over from a MACRO perspective , we need a weekly candle close above 32,000 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
28
BTC Before FOMC 03/23Bitcoin Analysis: 4H Chart According to recent events on a macroeconomic perspective and TA on the weekly chart I conclude on the path Bitcoin could take. - Major bearish divergence building (Higher highs price action, lower highs in the RSI) - BTC about to face strong resistance (confluence area) - Major possibility of rejection Bitcoin is approaching what many in the field are calling the possibility of having another Bull run. However I remain bearish (but who knows I can be wrong). DXY is showing a clear H&S pattern so this can invalidate my theory. I wanted to share this before the FOMC decision is taken, I expect a big ugly set of candles during the time of the press conference and right after the decision is determined. This is what I see, hence I wanted to share. Happy Wednesday and trade safe.
Short
by cegthd
Will the FOMC continue the US30s run higher?Traders will be looking forward to today’s FOMC seeking future direction on rates as inflation starts to cool but remains high. The new banking crisis has also significantly influenced the markets over the last several weeks. Stocks have been one of the markets hardest hit by the uncertainty thrown up by the banking crisis. The US30, in particular, has been hard hit, and sellers cut just over 7% off the index in four weeks. Looking at recent price action, we can see some buyer confidence returning after bailouts, and political action was taken to help stop the rout. The US30 held support and broke its tight range yesterday with a 0.98% rally. Inflation and rates had been key influences before the banking issues arose. Today’s FOMC could play an important role in the short term. Rates are now basically priced in with a 25-point increase, and Fed trackers see a 15% chance of a hold at an 85% chance of a 25-point increase. The statement for us is the important part unless we see a hold which would be unexpected and should give the US30 a boost through its trendline. If the Fed remains hawkish and discounts the banking issues, this could set off selling with worry over higher rates and possible inaction to support the sector. If the message is more to the dovish side, we will be looking for further upside from the new up leg, and hopefully, a break of the current trend could show signs that the correction could be starting to wain. Minor resistance remains at 32,600, and support is seen at 31,850. Price continues to hold a series of LHs and LLs, but a new push higher could break that pattern. The short term comes down to the fed message, which will be released at 05:00 am AEDT with the Federal funds rate. The press conference follows at 05:30 am.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
FED FOMC Meeting - Bank Failures in a High Inflation EnvironmentIn a high inflationary environment, bank failures can have a significant impact on the broader economy, and the likelihood of an interest rate hike may increase. When a bank fails, it can reduce the amount of credit available in the economy, which can slow down economic activity and increase unemployment. This can further exacerbate inflationary pressures, as reduced economic activity can lead to decreased supply of goods and services, driving up prices. To address high inflation, the central bank may increase interest rates to reduce borrowing and spending, and to encourage saving. Higher interest rates can make borrowing more expensive, which can decrease the demand for credit, and can also make saving more attractive, which can increase the supply of funds available for investment. However, increasing interest rates can also have a negative impact on the economy, as it can slow down economic growth and potentially lead to a recession. Additionally, higher interest rates can increase the cost of servicing debt, which can be challenging for heavily indebted borrowers. Overall, the decision to increase interest rates in response to high inflation and bank failures will depend on the specific circumstances at the time. The central bank will need to carefully consider the trade-offs between addressing inflation and supporting economic growth, and may need to take other measures to maintain the stability of the financial system and support the broader economy. I predict 50 BPS just my opinion Majority of macro economists and banks predict 25BPS Whether a 25 basis point (BPS) interest rate hike is bullish or bearish depends on the broader economic and market conditions at the time, and the expectations of investors. In general, an interest rate hike can be seen as a bearish signal for stocks, as it can increase borrowing costs and reduce the profitability of companies. Higher interest rates can also make bonds and other fixed income investments more attractive, which can lead investors to shift their money out of stocks and into bonds. On the other hand, an interest rate hike can be seen as a bullish signal for the currency, as it can increase the demand for the currency by making it more attractive to foreign investors. A stronger currency can also help to reduce inflationary pressures by making imports cheaper. However, the impact of a 25 BPS interest rate hike is typically relatively small, and may be already priced into the market by the time it is announced. Additionally, the central bank's accompanying statement and forward guidance can also have an impact on market sentiment. Overall, the market's reaction to a 25 BPS interest rate hike is likely to depend on a range of factors, including the broader economic and market conditions, the expectations of investors, and the central bank's messaging. Keep Safe
Short
by trader_blackgoat
AUDUSD Outlook 22 March 2023The AUDUSD traded with significant volatility overnight as the price reversed strongly from the 0.6730 resistance area to trade down to the 0.6650 price level. However, the 0.6650 price level coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and resisted further downward moves. Currently the price is trading just below the round number level of 0.67 which also aligns with the shorter term fib retracement level of 61.8% If the price is able to break above the 0.67 price level, the AUDUSD is likely to continue trading up to the 0.6730 resistance level. A bigger move to the upside would be driven by the possible weakness in the DXY, especially with the FOMC decision due. The next resistance level beyond 0.6730 is at 0.6780 and 0.6825.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Gold Outlook 22 March 2023Gold retraced strongly following the move to the 2000 price level. Forming a head and shoulder pattern, Gold traded down to the 1938 price level which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement price level The next directional move on Gold is going to be highly dependent on the volatility of the DXY, especially with the FOMC interest rate decision due. In the short term, if the price breaks below 1933 (the 61.8% fib level), gold could continue trading lower, down to the key support level of 1914. However, in the medium term, anticipating further DXY weakness, look for Gold to bounce either at the fib level or the 1914 support level to continue with the uptrend to retest the 2000 price level again.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JinDao_Tai
2