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FOMC

Will the FOMC continue the US30s run higher?Traders will be looking forward to today’s FOMC seeking future direction on rates as inflation starts to cool but remains high. The new banking crisis has also significantly influenced the markets over the last several weeks. Stocks have been one of the markets hardest hit by the uncertainty thrown up by the banking crisis. The US30, in particular, has been hard hit, and sellers cut just over 7% off the index in four weeks. Looking at recent price action, we can see some buyer confidence returning after bailouts, and political action was taken to help stop the rout. The US30 held support and broke its tight range yesterday with a 0.98% rally. Inflation and rates had been key influences before the banking issues arose. Today’s FOMC could play an important role in the short term. Rates are now basically priced in with a 25-point increase, and Fed trackers see a 15% chance of a hold at an 85% chance of a 25-point increase. The statement for us is the important part unless we see a hold which would be unexpected and should give the US30 a boost through its trendline. If the Fed remains hawkish and discounts the banking issues, this could set off selling with worry over higher rates and possible inaction to support the sector. If the message is more to the dovish side, we will be looking for further upside from the new up leg, and hopefully, a break of the current trend could show signs that the correction could be starting to wain. Minor resistance remains at 32,600, and support is seen at 31,850. Price continues to hold a series of LHs and LLs, but a new push higher could break that pattern. The short term comes down to the fed message, which will be released at 05:00 am AEDT with the Federal funds rate. The press conference follows at 05:30 am.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
FED FOMC Meeting - Bank Failures in a High Inflation EnvironmentIn a high inflationary environment, bank failures can have a significant impact on the broader economy, and the likelihood of an interest rate hike may increase. When a bank fails, it can reduce the amount of credit available in the economy, which can slow down economic activity and increase unemployment. This can further exacerbate inflationary pressures, as reduced economic activity can lead to decreased supply of goods and services, driving up prices. To address high inflation, the central bank may increase interest rates to reduce borrowing and spending, and to encourage saving. Higher interest rates can make borrowing more expensive, which can decrease the demand for credit, and can also make saving more attractive, which can increase the supply of funds available for investment. However, increasing interest rates can also have a negative impact on the economy, as it can slow down economic growth and potentially lead to a recession. Additionally, higher interest rates can increase the cost of servicing debt, which can be challenging for heavily indebted borrowers. Overall, the decision to increase interest rates in response to high inflation and bank failures will depend on the specific circumstances at the time. The central bank will need to carefully consider the trade-offs between addressing inflation and supporting economic growth, and may need to take other measures to maintain the stability of the financial system and support the broader economy. I predict 50 BPS just my opinion Majority of macro economists and banks predict 25BPS Whether a 25 basis point (BPS) interest rate hike is bullish or bearish depends on the broader economic and market conditions at the time, and the expectations of investors. In general, an interest rate hike can be seen as a bearish signal for stocks, as it can increase borrowing costs and reduce the profitability of companies. Higher interest rates can also make bonds and other fixed income investments more attractive, which can lead investors to shift their money out of stocks and into bonds. On the other hand, an interest rate hike can be seen as a bullish signal for the currency, as it can increase the demand for the currency by making it more attractive to foreign investors. A stronger currency can also help to reduce inflationary pressures by making imports cheaper. However, the impact of a 25 BPS interest rate hike is typically relatively small, and may be already priced into the market by the time it is announced. Additionally, the central bank's accompanying statement and forward guidance can also have an impact on market sentiment. Overall, the market's reaction to a 25 BPS interest rate hike is likely to depend on a range of factors, including the broader economic and market conditions, the expectations of investors, and the central bank's messaging. Keep Safe
Short
by trader_blackgoat
AUDUSD Outlook 22 March 2023The AUDUSD traded with significant volatility overnight as the price reversed strongly from the 0.6730 resistance area to trade down to the 0.6650 price level. However, the 0.6650 price level coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and resisted further downward moves. Currently the price is trading just below the round number level of 0.67 which also aligns with the shorter term fib retracement level of 61.8% If the price is able to break above the 0.67 price level, the AUDUSD is likely to continue trading up to the 0.6730 resistance level. A bigger move to the upside would be driven by the possible weakness in the DXY, especially with the FOMC decision due. The next resistance level beyond 0.6730 is at 0.6780 and 0.6825.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Gold Outlook 22 March 2023Gold retraced strongly following the move to the 2000 price level. Forming a head and shoulder pattern, Gold traded down to the 1938 price level which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement price level The next directional move on Gold is going to be highly dependent on the volatility of the DXY, especially with the FOMC interest rate decision due. In the short term, if the price breaks below 1933 (the 61.8% fib level), gold could continue trading lower, down to the key support level of 1914. However, in the medium term, anticipating further DXY weakness, look for Gold to bounce either at the fib level or the 1914 support level to continue with the uptrend to retest the 2000 price level again.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
FOMC Preparation (DXY) 22nd March 2023Overnight, the DXY continued to weaken and traded down to the 103-round number support level. However, the price bounced from the level to consolidate at the current level of 103.18. It is likely that the DXY could continue to consolidate along this level in the lead up to the FOMC interest rate decision due on Thursday morning. The expectation is for the FOMC to increase rates by 25bps to take the interest rates to 5.00%. This decision is likely to have been priced in. IF the FOMC decides to hold rates, due to the uncertainty in the market due arising from the banking crisis, this could see the DXY drop significantly to the downside. In addition to the interest rate decision, pay attention to the accompanying statement and the press conference which follows. A dovish tone, citing concern over the current market turmoil could see the DXY continue to weaken further. Ultimately, if the DXY trades below 103, the next support level is 102.63. And beyond that, the next key level is at 101.55.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
What exactly is FOMC? What is FOMC, and what does it do? FOMC stands for Federal Open Market Committee. It's a group of people who work for the US government and makes decisions about the country's money. They decide how much money should be in circulation and how much it should cost to borrow money. How does FOMC affect the forex market? FOMC's decisions can affect the forex market because they can change the value of the US dollar compared to other currencies. For example, suppose FOMC raises interest rates. In that case, it can make the US dollar more attractive than other currencies, increasing the exchange rate. If they lower interest rates, it can make the US dollar less attractive, which can decrease the exchange rate. What is the FOMC statement, and why is it essential for the forex market? The FOMC statement is a document that FOMC releases after each meeting. It explains what the FOMC members talked about and what they decided to do with interest rates and the economy. This statement is essential for the forex market because it helps investors and traders decide what to do with their money. They might buy or sell different currencies based on the FOMC statement. How does FOMC affect currency exchange rates? FOMC can affect currency exchange rates by changing the value of the US dollar compared to other currencies. If FOMC raises interest rates, it can make the US dollar more attractive than other currencies, increasing the exchange rate. If they lower interest rates, it can make the US dollar less attractive, which can decrease the exchange rate. Why do traders pay attention to FOMC meetings? Traders pay attention to FOMC meetings and the FOMC statement because it can give them an idea of what might happen to the US dollar and other currencies. They might make trades based on what they think will happen after the FOMC meeting. For example, if they believe the FOMC will raise interest rates, they might buy US dollars because they think the exchange rate will increase. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYEducation
by OlympusLab
AUDNZD: GO LONGAll elements being clearly bullish, it would be possible for traders to trade only long positions (at the time of purchase) on AUD/NZD as long as the price remains well above 1.0800 NZD. The buyers' bullish objective is set at 1.0795- 1.0810 NZD. A bullish break in this resistance would boost the bullish momentum. The buyers could then target the resistance located at 1.0905 NZD. However, beware of bullish excesses that could lead to a possible short-term correction; but this possible correction would not be tradeable.
Long
by Yurino86
$NASDAQ $QQQ $SPY closed near key resistance, FOMC 2pm EST- NASDAQ QQQ and SPY closed near resistance QQQ im looking at $311 daily time frame triple top. - FOMC 25BPS tomorrow 80% chance, need to see in Powell's speech if this is our last hike or we get a pause, also information on the banking situation too. - XLF is going to be key factor tomorrow for SPY's direction, went completely sideways today will break strongly in a direction tomorrow. - i am slightly bearish here since we are right at key resistance but FOMC can change that in an instant, for ex we get a pause after this hike then we are very likely breaking that resistance if that happens i am bullish and going long.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ArcadiaTrading
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 22/03Share markets continued to press higher as they focus on the coming FOMC interest rate release. Concerns over the banking sector are on the back burner for now and expectations for no rate rise from the US Fed may now be baked into the price action. I expect to see the Fed Reserve raise rates by 25 basis points as they still have to battle higher inflation so we may see a late selloff into the US markets. Asian markets will open stronger to follow on from the European and US sessions. A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and Stocks to Watch Leading Up to FOMC MeetingAs the market anticipates the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, investors are keeping a close eye on key levels and stocks that may experience significant movements. In this article, we will discuss the potential scenarios for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and several prominent stocks, as well as the importance of the FOMC meeting in shaping market momentum. SPX and QQQ: Key Levels to Watch SPX appears to be setting up for a test of the 4000 level, with the potential to run up to 4020 if it can break through the resistance. The FOMC meeting will play a crucial role in determining market direction, so investors should monitor developments closely. Similarly, QQQ is approaching the 309 level, currently up almost 2 points in premarket trading. A break above 309 could lead to a test of the 315 level. As with the SPX, the FOMC meeting will be a key factor in shaping the QQQ's performance. Stocks to Monitor: TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, AMD, META, and MSFT Tesla (TSLA) is poised for a potential move towards 190, with 196 as the next target level. Apple (AAPL) is best positioned if it can maintain support at 157. NVIDIA (NVDA) is setting up for a move towards 269, with premarket trading showing an increase of almost 4 points. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) still has the potential to reach the 100 level. Meta Platforms (META) may experience a 5-point gap up if it can break above 205, with the potential to run up to 213. Microsoft (MSFT) appears somewhat weak at present, with a stronger outlook if it can move through the 276 level. Market Momentum and FOMC Meeting As the market begins to gain momentum on the upside, it is essential for investors to monitor the FOMC meeting's outcome. Ideally, a strong close near the 4000 level for the SPX and 309 for the QQQ would indicate a bullish market environment leading into the FOMC meeting. In anticipation of the FOMC meeting, you should remain vigilant and monitor key levels for the SPX, QQQ, and select individual stocks. The market's momentum leading into the meeting will play a significant role in shaping future trends, so staying informed on the latest developments is critical for successful investment strategies.
SP:SPX
by bitdoctor
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 21st March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of instability in the market due to the SVB crisis and other banks being heavily affected by it. 2. GOLD, as a safe haven asset, flew to the highs to 2000 and is currently rejecting. 3. This is fuelled by the instability with the USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price could potentially retrace back to the H4 support level at 1959.24 before heading back up. 2. Price went parabolic to the 2000 regions. 3. Bullish pressure is still intact and will be looking for longs. Idea Looking for price to break new highs beyond 2065 and this is just the beginning. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OlympusLab
KRE / XLF / QQQ / SPY Triple Top Resistance into Wednesday FOMC- KRE and XLF still in a bear flag territory, Both are closing in on their tightening range and will break very soon either tomorrow or Wednesday. we will get a lot of volume and volatility once this breaks. - QQQ & SPY have a Triple top resistance, if XLF break bull SPY will very likely break that resistance, so will watching all 4 closely. - FOMC Wednesday 0.25BPS is still around 70% chance, what bulls want to see is Powell saying we are pausing after this hike, Bears want to see more 0.25BPS hikes.
AMEX:KRE
by ArcadiaTrading