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FOMC

US30 Intra-Week Analysis Feb 7th, 2023Last week on us30 we saw price breakout bullish to test 34300 as it priced in the 25bps rate hike and dubbish tone from Jerome Powell during the FOMC speech. We then continued trading back in the range between 33800-34100. This week we begin with minimal volume in anticipation for another FOMC meeting today where they will discuss whether they will maintain this dubbish narrative causing price to continue bullish or be more aggressive driving price to continue bearish. Based on how the market digests this info we are looking for buys above 34100 and sells below 33400.
U
by Itskaleel
GOLD LAYOUT FOR TODAYGold is currently consolidating between 1880-1860 and is in a non-trading range. If there is a break below 1860 and it is confirmed as resistance, go short with a target of 1843.800 and 1835.550. On the other hand, if there is a break above 1870 and it is confirmed as support, go long with a target of 1903.035 and 1917.865. Keep in mind that today is the FOMC speech of Powell, so be cautious and avoid taking random trades. Adopt a sniper-like approach for precise entry points. Stay ahead of the curve with our analysis. Unleash your trading potential with our in-depth analysis of the gold market. Stay ahead of the game with our latest insights.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by arpitjain11
Fight or Flight?On February 1st, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a widely-expected 25bps rate hike. This was the rallying cry for the current market rally to continue. Is this confidence warranted? An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across both. The statement was hawkish. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell’s language in the press conference was remarkably dovish, describing the disinflation process as having started and as "encouraging and gratifying". This was the point that markets took as the signal to continue the recent rally. Precious metals, equities, and risk assets have all seen significant post-meeting relief. The first innings of a recession always appear to be somewhat of a soft landing in which inflation and growth begin to slow gradually. Yesterday’s meeting echoed the idea that recent indicators point to a modest increase in spending and that inflation has eased, precisely what the first innings of a recession would predict. As markets, potentially shortsightedly, adopt the soft landing narrative, the Fed’s lack of pushback against easier financial conditions added fuel to the fire. Given this, it is doubtful that markets will stop rallying until one of two cases occurs: First, if data comes in hot, it potentially frightens markets into thinking the Fed will turn back hawkish and raise rates more than the recently observed 25bps hike. The second scenario is the other extreme. Should data start coming in highly recessionary with lower inflation and weak growth, this will eliminate all believers in the soft landing narrative, thus halting the rally. However, at present, it looks like the market rally of 2023 could continue until either of these scenarios happen. An important thing to note is that whenever inflation has exceeded 5% in the past, it has never come back down without the Federal Funds Rate exceeding the rate of CPI inflation. Considering the Federal Funds Rate is currently between 4.5% and 4.75% whilst CPI inflation is at 6.5%, more rate hikes are on the horizon unless data comes in highly recessionary. CPI data on the 14th of February will provide significant insight into whether or not the Fed will follow the likes of the European Central Bank & Bank of England and go with a 50bps hike rather than a 25bps hike. Another important thing to note is that Apple , Amazon , and Alphabet (the parent company of Google ) all missed earnings last night. If three of the world's largest companies missed earnings, it does not breed confidence for economic hopes of avoiding a recession. One thing seems certain, the S&P500 is likely to take a hit when the NYSE opens later today.
by Coinrule
22
Don't Fight The FedOn February 1st, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were released, and the Fed announced a 25bps rate hike. As such, markets started to rally. An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across both. The statement was hawkish. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell’s language in the press conference was remarkably dovish, describing the disinflation process as having started and as “encouraging and gratifying”. This was seen by markets as the signal to continue the recent rally. Precious metals, equities, and risk assets have all seen significant post-meeting relief. The first innings of a recession always appear to be somewhat of a soft landing in which inflation and growth begin to slow gradually. Yesterday’s meeting echoed the ideas that recent indicators point to a modest increase in spending and that inflation has eased, precisely what the first innings of a recession would predict. As markets shortsightedly adopt the soft landing narrative, the Fed’s lack of pushback against easier financial conditions added fuel to the fire. Given this, it is doubtful that markets will stop rallying unless one of two cases occurs: First if data comes in hot, it potentially frightens the market into thinking the Fed will turn back hawkish and raise rates more than the recently observed 25bps hike. The second scenario is the other extreme. Should data start coming in highly recessionary with lower inflation and weak growth, this will eliminate all believers in the soft landing narrative, thus halting the rally. However, at present, it looks like the market rally of 2023 could continue until either of these scenarios happen. An important thing to note is that whenever inflation has exceeded 5% in the past, it has never come back down without the Federal Funds Rate exceeding the CPI . Considering the Federal Funds Rate is currently at 4.65% and CPI inflation at 6.5%, more rate hikes are on the horizon unless data comes in highly recessionary. CPI data on the 14th will provide significant insight into whether or not the Fed will follow the likes of the European Central Bank & Bank of England and go with a 50bps hike rather than a 25bps hike. Another important thing to note is that Apple , Amazon , and Alphabet (the parent company of Google ) all missed earnings last night. If three of the world's largest companies missed earnings, it does not breed confidence in the hopes of avoiding a recession. One thing is for sure, the S&P500 will take a hit when the NYSE opens later today.
Long
by Coinrule
Gold Leaves Behind Bearish Engulfing as Fed Push Losses SteamGold prices dropped almost 2 percent on Thursday, the most since the summer of 2020. XAU/USD was unable to find follow-through after a boost from the Fed earlier this week. Upbeat US jobless claims brought data into focus ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report, pushing up the US Dollar. A Bearish Engulfing is in focus. Downside follow-through is lacking at the time of publishing. A breakout under the 20-day Simple Moving Average exposes the 50-day line. Negative RSI divergence is also present, showing that upside momentum is fading. Otherwise, key resistance is the 1978 - 1998 zone above.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
S&P500 - Decision timeHello traders! As stated in our previous post, linked in the description, we are following two main scenarios on S&P500. According to the bullish scenario, the 5 waves labeled in the chart should form a leading diagonal for wave i of C in a primary wave (B) to the upside targeting 4300+. In this case we should now retrace in wave ii of C. According to the bearish scenario, that movement from december's low would be a triple three correction in wave 2/B and thus we may reverse in a wave 3/C aiming to lower targets (3640 big wolfe wave target) or possibly lower lows. See the chart below We managed to catch a short entry at @4076.1, and we are going to hold it (stop loss on entry) following this plan: -if prices arrives to the 3900-3940 area, which is a target in both scenarios (and wolfe's wave target), we will close at least half of the position. At that point we will evaluate whether the decline is impulsive (motive wave) or corrective( three waves). In the former case, once it extends lower and if actvivates the red ascending broadening wedge creating a 5-waves pattern, we will search for adding a short at the retracement. In the latter case, we will evaluate bullish setups around the 3900 area for the green arrow path in the main chart, possibly keeping a piece of the initial short to be hedged for both scenarios. - If prices spikes up and kicks us out at entry, we will reevaluate a short position around the 4125-4135 area, for a completion higher of the above mentioned leading diagonal, ad apply the same plan to the new short. As we e xplained before we believe that fundamental news and events unfold simultaneously with the price action, and all the information available is encoded in chart patterns. Nonetheless, it is clear that the FOMC will bring high volatility, so it is important to reduce risk and have a clear plan prepared. Will update below, happy trading ;)
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by GMR-Capital
6
ArmanShabanTrading |🔴 XAUUSD - Heavy Correction is Coming ?An Important TA of $GOLD : As you can see, since yesterday the price faced buying pressure after reaching 1900.870 and was able to grow strongly to the level of 1931$, now the price is trading in the range of 1924$ and according to the today's news , I give the probability of the price falling from this range , I have specified 2 scenarios on the chart, which are accurately and detailed , the targets are $1920, $1918, and $1906, respectively! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 02. 01 .2023 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
32
S&P on the Rise: Can It Break Through Resistance?The recent Fed interest rate decision has sent shockwaves throughout the market, and the S&P 500 is no exception. Prior to FOMC The index had made a convincing break above a 4-hour trendline that dates back to January 2022. However, now it has encountered a strong resistance level. Despite the strong upward momentum, traders should be cautious and monitor this key level closely. If the S&P 500 is able to break through this resistance, there could be potential for further gains. On the other hand, if the resistance holds, we might see a pullback in the near term. Keep a close eye on this development and stay tuned for updates.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by natron
GOLD SHORT TERM INTRADAY IDEAIntraday Analysis - ( 2 FEB 2023 ) GOLD ANALYSIS AFTER FOMC The feds decided to go as per forecasted and raise a 25bps which was a slow down in rate hikes for months to come now. In a live weekly recap session i did mention a 25 bps will cause a rally across all risk assets, including commodities and crypto and the stock market. The fundamental sentiment has not change just yet with no stance or remarks from jerome to continue its fight for inflation instead its just on the fence news that was sort of repeated since last FOMC. Now we will still adapt to current market sentiment and look for buys. HRHR buys 1934 MRMR buys 1939 / 1935 SAFEST buys upon break out of the current range we are in at 1957 Will only look for long term shorts or potential scalp shorts below key level at 1929 which shows that the entire upside move was completely cancelled out. This could potentially happen if theres an even bigger fundamental news in play or shift in market sentiment in this case we will be observing whats coming next which is NFP tmrw.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
How a Housing Market Crash Equals New Stock Market HighsTraders, I believe this chart is so important it warrants revisiting the data. Indeed, the fed has to be cognizant of this same data and is most certainly is watching it closely. Therefore, we must do the same. In this video, I am going to explain why the housing market data, even though it's week, supports my thesis of a blow-off top in the stock markets this summer. Stew ⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️ My Housing Market Chart: www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by stewdamus
1
TSLA Re-Accumulation to Big DistributionTopping reversal candle on the 4 hr. I see Bullish and Bearish scenarios- * Yes Tesla can go to $180 first, it has to happen before Wednesday Bearish- pullback and double top , Rising Wedge or complete breakdown from here. Bullish-continuation on new support trend-line past $200… to confirm V bottom recovery (Tsla is one of few stocks that will be green while Markets go red) *** everything dependent on Markets to confirm Bull cycle or to fade the rally and begin the Final leg Down of Correction. My Thesis,( until price action delivers a different scenario)- I’m leaning Bearish, but with a possibility of higher high along with Bearish Divergence confirmation. Just to accumulate more retail liquidity before February selloff -Smart Money began buying in December- taking profits in February lines up with lower Tax on gains and portfolio rotation I believe economic data or FOMC will maintain hawkishness and rug-pull the markets next Wednesday. Macro Data: - NYSE advance decline is supporting weakness in markets -Retail & Smart money are completely divergent -Put/Call ratio beginning to favor Bears -Vix bullish divergence setup forming -DXY, 10yr & 2yr bond yields are all rising with markets -HYG Bonds are falling while markets advance -Retail influx & euphoria is at highest level since 2021 & 2022 August high (LARGE SELLOFF) - Feb & March seasonally are sell-off & Volatility spikes until April ***Everything is pointing to a Large pullback or “The Final” leg of Bearish Correction
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Black_Sheep1
9