Get started

FOMC

US500 - All Eyes On Fed Funds Rate!🏛Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. US500 is overall bearish from a long-term perspective trading inside the falling broadening wedge pattern in brown, and it is currently retesting the upper brown trendline. As per my last idea, we were expecting a rejection around the upper brown trendline For the bears to take over, and start the next bearish impulse movement, we need a break (momentum candle close) below the last major low in orange (3900) Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
U
by TheSignalyst
9
US30 thoughts post CPI pre FOMCHi, and thanks for taking the time to look at our latest update. We hope everyone has been hitting some trade wins. Today we are looking at the US30 after its wild session after yesterday's US CPI data. The data came in below expectations, and this continues the run of lower-than-expected releases. This remains a touch confusing, as last week, we saw the PPI increase. Inflation sits at 7.1% y/y. Is this enough for the fed to set a slightly more dovish stance this week? Message from the fed has softened, but we still expect to see rates come in 50 points higher this week. This is a decrease on previous meetings, so it's a softening in that area if it does happen. The gambler in me wonders if we could see 25 points before Christmas, but the realist thinks we will most likely see the expected 50 points. The US30 saw one heck of a fade after the CPI data, and that does make me wonder if the market is feeling edgy regarding the feds' message this week, which may coincide with a high point in the rally. For now, we see resistance at 34,600 and at 35,270. Will that feds message this meeting cement buyer confidence, or could it start a new push lower if the message moves away from the softening tone we have started to see develop? The FOMC, funds rate, statement and economic projections will be released tomorrow morning AEDT time at 6:00 am, followed by the press conference at 6:30 am.
EIGHTCAP:US30
by Eightcap
DXY AFTER CPI OUTLOOK PREPPING FOR FOMCDOLLAR INDEX - continuation of bearish momentum - CPI prints lower than forecasted indicating previous months of rate hike has been working out as increasing of interest rates cause dollar to strengthen and a drop in equities and commodities which is why we have been playing the bearish bias on crypto - Now that CPI prints has showed a decrease, i am quite optimistic that the FOMC meeting will show a 50-bps rate hike as expected and sort of priced in already. We have been seeing hints of a slowdown in rate hikes which caused the equities market / crypto market and gold to rally. I need to see the FED confirms a FED PIVOT - However, if the feds decide to raise rate hike by 75bps or 100bps which is out of the ordinary, do expect a dump in all markets. Either way i am quite bullish in the markets hence my spot buys has been well positioned last month and is currently up a good amount. Leverage buys / sells will only be given probably after FOMC or next week when the dust settles. My bias in the markets as of now is bullish and not bearish. As all fundamentals have been in check for a minor relief rally across the markets or you can say it's a mini bull market. Fed pivot = dollar weakness = crypto moon / stocks moon = adapting to short term bullish bias
TVC:DXY
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
The December FOMC preview – setting the stage for 2023 Having seen US core CPI come in at 6% the strong reaction in rates, US Treasuries, gold, and the USD makes sense – somewhat more puzzling, after an initial spike of 3% in the US500, we’ve seen a sizeable reversal in US equity markets and perhaps this shows trepidation to hold exposures over the upcoming FOMC meeting. Certainly, USD pairs are getting a strong showing from clients, with breakouts seen in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD and USDCHF. We’ve also seen XAUUSD close at the highest level since July amid the nirvana backdrop of lower US real rates and USD weakness. Trading breakouts is defined by strategy – momentum and trend-followers often enter positions on breakouts – other, more non-systematic players, will find it hard to trust the break and refrain from chasing, especially when we have the Fed meeting in play (06:00 AEDT / 1700 GMT), with the ECB, BoE and SNB out not long after. What could go down? The Fed will hike by 50bp – I’d be shocked if we saw anything else and this action shouldn’t move markets given it's fully discounted – any move in the USD initially likely comes from algo’s reacting to the fed funds projection (or ‘dot’) for 2023, and perhaps for 2024. The current median projection, set at the September FOMC meeting, is 4.6%, but the debate is whether they lift this to 4.9% or 5.1% - one could easily argue that the Nov CPI print sways it towards 4.9%, which is where market pricing currently sits – subsequently should we see the 2023 ‘dot’ revised to 5.1%, in light of the CPI print, it could be seen driving to USD higher and causing equity and XAU to sell-off. We can look at the ‘dot’ (or projection for the fed funds rate) for 2024 – currently, at 3.9%, the question whether they leave this unchanged or move this higher. Leaving the projection at 3.9% seems likely but it just validates the market's pricing of increasingly aggressive rate cuts through 2024. You can see the current projection here - www.federalreserve.gov The other factor is how open Fed chair Jay Powell – in his press conference - is to take another step down to hikes of 25bp pace at the February meeting – I find it hard to think he wouldn’t strongly open the door as there is so much evidence that US inflation is progressing to target. So, after another fall in the December CPI print on 13 Jan, the Fed should be able to hike by 25bp here – perhaps this will be the last in the series before a pause. Inflation swaps pricing a strong trend lower in inflation If I look at the inflation swaps market, I find it interesting that traders are betting that inflation falls below the fed funds rate by March – this is a punchy call, but this is exactly what the Fed want to see, and they have made it clear they want to take fed funds above underlying inflation. We can look further out the inflation swaps curve and see the market pricing headline inflation at 2.37% in late Q4. As I mentioned in the 2023 traders’ outlook, high inflation is likely going to take a backseat to growth concerns, and the Nov CPI print gives that view additional support. A more dovish Fed in 2024 Another factor which needs to be considered is the rotation in voting FOMC members in 2024 –the way the committee is evolving clearly favours the bond bulls/USD bears. Notably, we see, James Bullard, Esther George, and Loretta Mester – these are 3 of the 6 hawkish Fed members who in September projected a fed funds rate of 4.9% for 2023 and are now calling for well above 5%, are to be replaced by Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed), Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) and Patrick Harker (Philadelphia Fed) – voters who lean more on the dovish side of the ledger. Economics and markets are dynamic – they evolve – the Fed are still very much reactionary and wants to see strong evidence of inflation headed lower and they should be seeing the evidence build by the day. Market players feel confident Powell won’t want to deviate too greatly from his statement at the Nov FOMC meeting and understand now is not the time for high-fiving and claiming victory on inflation – but he should give them maximum flexibility to take the pace down to 25bp, knowing that growth will likely slow for here and prior rate hikes still need to work their way through the system – Powell will need to hit a home run on his communication – it promises to be very insightful and will set a stage for 2023.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
1
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT UPDATE:End of day update from us here at KOG: We wanted this to go a little lower before the bounce to the upside, however as you can see price reacted aggressively to the news and we went straight up into the KOG Report level we were expecting this week to be completed. It's a difficult market to trade and to be honest we're maintaining the defensive in Camelot so its reduced lots and observation. Now we would like to see this settle pre-event so expect a range above 1803 and be prepared for FOMC tomorrow. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
TSLA Major Confluence Long Signal!Going to keep this simple. We have a touch on the bottom of the descending parallelly channel, a major horizontal support line, and the golden pocket. This is a very bullish setup for TSLA to bounce. Stops should be placed below golden pock with the right position size and risk management to protect your account incase the bears manage to push the price through this major support. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by rnaofs
The dollar slowly perks up ahead of US CPI and FOMC meetingThe US dollar is trying to form a base following its false break of the August low. Whilst it saw a daily close beneath the key level on Friday 2nd December, a bullish engulfing candle formed the following day. Furthermore, a higher low formed on Friday with a Spinning top Doji and held above the August low, and momentum is pointing higher today. So if this week’s FOMC meeting is more hawkish than currently expected, these levels likely look appealing for bulls after its near-10% retracement. With that said, I suspect volatility will be lower ahead of this week’s US CPI report and FOMC meeting as traders may be wary to front-run these key events. - The bias is bullish above last week's low (although a more aggressive stop could be used beneath Friday's low) - Open upside target, given the market has retraced nearly 10% from its highs and the Fed have the potential to deliver a hawkish hike this week
TVC:DXYLong
by CityIndex
DXY WEEKLY OUTLOOK DXY 2 scenerios for this coming week (very heavy with CPI and FOMC this week) 1) Looking for a continuation melt on the dollar index with a small bear flag on the hourly timeframe. With a break of structure I can see further downside on the dollar which would give rise in the equities market. 2) Looking at the dollar index to form a double top at 106.5 - 107 region for better risk to reward sells which means this will give equites, crypto a short-term downside move as we are currently experiencing now which can serve as manipulation or liquidity grabs to the downside for further upside later in the week or the coming weeks. Inflations Prints (CPI TUESDAY 9.30 PM SGT) As per seen from the prints of previous month, inflation is easing. We will be looking for Tuesday's print to be lower than that of previous month of 0.4% to signify a continuation of easing prints for the months ahead. If inflation were to print higher than 0.4%, we can safely gauge that the prints of previous month was a "One Trick-Pony". We will be looking at a continuation of bearish equities market / stocks / crypt and gold and dollar dominance. Inflation prints is in direct correlation to the FOMC monetary policy. If inflation is easing due to constant aggressive rate hikes, we can be looking at the FEDs to ease rate hikes accordingly as well. The market has been pricing in a Fed pivot Phase 1 and expecting rate hikes to be eased this month printing at 50 BPS. We will be looking at dollar weakness and bullishness across all global markets when this happens.
TVC:DXYShort
by CJ_GOLDPIPS