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GBPUSD: How to read the fundamentals?GBPUSD is ahead of an important week of CPI meeting in Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday. if inflation remains under control we can expect fed to slow down the rate hikes more likely 50 bps the coming week and 25 bps early next year which should trigger USD bears and that's what we expect as well based on the last CPI data. Otherwise if CPI is above expectations we can expect the opposite Scenario and more of a strong Dollar and a hawkish FOMC. when Good fundamentals meet good technicals then there is a good probability for your trade to go in your direction but always keep in mind that trading is a field of probabilities and since everything could happen a proper risk management should be taken in consideration. my recommendation is to risk 1% per trade so that will allow you to stay in the market the longest possible and will help you to compound your account as well. Otherwise if you risk 20% per trade then 5 losing trades in a row will knock you out of the market. And you don't want that to happen so you should stick to proper risk management of always risking small and aiming high. if you have any question please don't hesitate to ask in the comment section. i'm happy to interact and answer to all!
Long
by JoeChampion
40
$AUDUSD - Important data this week, be prepared. $AUDUSD - Get ready... Another week, another great opportunity for us traders to take advantage of. This week is a very important week: CPI, FOMC & PMIs. It was a difficult week, choppy action but that happens when we have important data this week. It's important to reserve your capital gains when market conditions are like this kangaroo or amber mode is way I describe it. Some are stating the CPI print will be more important than FOMC - I think it will be both very important as we go towards year end we still have plenty of trading opportunities and this week is a great week. We expect CPI to soften, 7.7% previous to 7.3% - If it comes in softer the rate hikes working, we expect 50 basis point for this meeting and the next and then we expect cuts - Now the market is forward looking we've seen risk play big part DXY declining cuts coming into play, easing less pressure dollar declines: we have Aussie, Gold and crypto escalate higher. What Powell will state will be very important in my humble opinion as we get to year end and positioning for portfolio management I have no set direction on yet to decide the movement for this week, we are within mid ranges of all assets - you could trade the data or wait and trade the after reaction. Regarding past data on Friday we had PPI: It came stronger than expected however we had minor dip in EUR we still went to rising back, now within the mid ranges. The dollar bears are still out there but will they get hurt this week? Only time will tell. Technically AUDUSD: We are within ranges a break to either direction, at this current moment of time we arent closing above 200ema if we are to close above bulls could gain further control up we go towards .70 areas easily - if not this rally fails and goes back towards .64 half areas All the best for this week, Trade Journal (FOLLOW YOUR OWN TRADE PLAN - NOT A SIGNAL PROVIDER)
by Trade_Journal
2
All Eyes On Fed Funds Rate 🏛Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. I am not a fundamental expert (nor an economist) but I found FEDFUNDS chart really interesting! I never thought that basic technical analysis tools can also be applied to such economic instruments! As per my last analysis (attached on the chart) FEDFUNDS traded higher and broke the red wedge pattern upward. Now we are technically bullish, expecting big impulse movements to push price higher, and small bearish correction movements. We all know that Federal Reserve will most probably increase the interest rates by another 50 basis points (0.5%) next week (on Wednesday) By adding another 0.5% , FEDFUNDS will be approaching a strong resistance zone in blue (4.7% - 5.7%) which might hold the price down for a bearish correction to start and push price lower till the previous high in gray again. It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on this one. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by TheSignalyst
18
FOMC Meeting Next Week: Bank of America Expects 50bp Rate Hike The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet next week, and investors are eagerly anticipating the outcome of the meeting. Bank of America Global Research has discussed its expectations for the meeting, saying that it expects the Fed to raise its target range for the federal funds rate by 50bp in December to 4.25-4.5%. According to Bank of America, the Fed has telegraphed this move over the last few weeks through its communications. However, the more important question is where the Fed will go next. Bank of America expects the median forecast for 2023 to move up by 50bp to 5.125%, which is consistent with its terminal rate. The bank also expects the dot plot to show 100bp of cuts each in 2024 and 2025. In addition, Bank of America expects the macro projections in the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) to be revised to show lower GDP growth and inflation than in September, and higher unemployment. At the press conference following the FOMC meeting, Bank of America expects Chair Powell to push back against easing in financial conditions and remind investors that a slower pace of hikes does not mean a lower terminal rate. The bank believes that Powell will stress that the Fed's job is far from done. Overall, Bank of America expects the FOMC meeting next week to be consistent with the Fed's previous communications and for there to be no major surprises or shifts in policy. Some Jargon Explained The Dot Plot The dot plot, also known as the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), is a visual representation of Federal Reserve policymakers' individual forecasts for where they think key interest rates will be in the coming years. The dot plot shows the central tendency, or the middle of the range, of the individual forecasts for the federal funds rate. Each participant in the FOMC meeting provides their own individual forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year, as well as over the longer run. These forecasts are then plotted on a chart, with the dots representing the individual forecasts and the lines connecting the dots indicating the median of the group's forecasts. The dot plot is released four times per year, along with the FOMC's policy statement, and provides insight into the collective thinking of FOMC members about the future path of interest rates. It is an important tool for investors to gauge the future direction of monetary policy. The Terminal Rate The terminal rate, also known as the long-run federal funds rate or the equilibrium real interest rate, is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve believes is consistent with the long-run health of the economy. It represents the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and is expected to prevail in the long run, once the economy has reached its full employment and price stability goals. The terminal rate is not a fixed number, and can change over time depending on a variety of factors such as changes in the underlying productivity and demographic trends of the economy. The Federal Reserve uses the terminal rate as a reference point when setting its short-term interest rate targets. In general, the terminal rate is expected to be lower than the current federal funds rate, as the Fed typically raises interest rates in the short run to prevent the economy from overheating and then lowers them in the long run to support economic growth. This means that the terminal rate can provide important information about the future direction of monetary policy.
TVC:US10YEducation
by JoelWarby
Volatility Rally | Major Demand ZoneThe Volatility Index (VIX) has been in a historical downtrend the past weeks / 2 months! VIX has also been moving abnormal in relation to the S&P 500 Index which it tracks Volatility in. The Volatility Index has sunk to a major demand zone, and is now breaking back out of the area. After hitting Lows of around $19 the VIX is breaking out upwards. We are seeing a dump in the markets from major S&P Bear Market Trendline as well. Bears are stepping in at these levels in the markets, and the volatility index is rising, signaling further downward movement coming in the market. Simply put, the Volatility index is breaking out from its Major Demand Zone, and generally if history repeats will rally up to the supply zone up around the $30 level. This has been a typical swing move in the index since the beginning of 2022. Reasons VIX looks bullish : - TTM Squeeze (Daily & Weekly) - Reclaimed Daily EMA Cloud - Market Rejecting Major Trendline (S&P) - Cup & Handle on VIX (1hr / 1D) - Double Bottom - Market Greed - CPI & FOMC coming up How to play : $UVIX commons $VIX option calls etc. There are multiple reasons Volatility is rising currently, and Technicals back this thesis up strongly. I hope you liked the though!
TVC:VIXLong
by ZachSap
As we approach the last Fed/ECB meetings of the year.Last week, while the Federal Reserve changed its rhetoric from ‘hiking to fight inflation at all cost’ to ‘slow the pace of rate hike’, seismic waves rolled over the markets. As we approach the last central bank meetings of the year, the ECB meets on (15th Dec), Fed on the (14th Dec). A temperature check on the expected path of rates for the 2 major central banks would give us a good sense to position ourselves. The Fed After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech last Wednesday at the Brookings Institution in Washington, one line in particular (“The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”) shifted the market’s perspective. With the USD weakening further and terminal rates repricing slower and lower than expected, markets seem to have priced in a 50-basis point hike by the Fed in its December meeting. A slowdown from the back-to-back 75 basis point hikes we have come accustomed to. As noted in the chart above the EURUSD pair has generally moved alongside the dollar direction, should the dollar continue its tumble downwards, the EURUSD is likely to trade higher. The ECB After raising rates by 75 basis points in the last meeting to 1.5%, the ECB still faces mounting inflation. Market expectations still swing between a 50 to 75 bps hike for the upcoming ECB meeting as the Eurozone still struggles with high inflation. The ECB may also have more headroom to maneuver as current rates remain below the expected terminal rate and the 200 basis points hike still pales in comparison to the Fed’s 375 basis points move. However, we do have to caveat that intricacies matter here, for example, the inflationary effects in the US are largely driven by the demand side, while in the Eurozone are driven by supply-side effects. Regardless, the next few days will remain key for any policymaker comments to guide the markets as the meeting date nears. Policy timing and direction uncertainty put the EURUSD pair on our watchlist. The last time the 2 central banking policy timelines diverged, we called it out on one of our previous ideas. You can check out here . Additionally, we spot an ascending triangle pattern on the chart which generally signifies a bullish continuation. With the previous ascending triangle breaking out in a textbook manner, we will watch if the current setup trades the same. Prices have also broken a previous support-turn-resistance level, which could prove as further conviction of the upward move. With a clear technical setup and the potential for the ECB to surprise hikes to the upside, we lean bullish on the EURUSD pair. We set our stop at the 1.0440 level, and take profit level at 1.0900, with each 0.00005 increment per EUR in the EURUSD futures contract equal to 6.25$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.cmegroup.com www.ecb.europa.eu www.federalreserve.gov
CME:6EZ2022Long
by inspirante
9
⚠️ The last TA of #Gold on November ⚠️Today, the market is not following a particular trend and is waiting for the announcement of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and JOLTS Job Openings statistics, and after that the speech of Mr. Powell (Federal Reserve Chairman)! Anyway, I have specified the important levels of supply and demand on the chart. Personally, I will wait for Point of Interest (POI) and then enter into a new position , and considering that it is the last day of the month, I will minimize my personal risk! 🔔 Important Day 🔔(The Last Day of The Month) ➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖ 🔴 USD : ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 💬 Usual Effect : 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency . 🟨 Why Should We Care ? Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; ➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖ 🔴 USD : JOLTS Job Openings 💬 Usual Effect : 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency . ➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖ 🔴 USD : Fed Chair Powell Speaks 📣 Speaker : Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 💬 Usual Effect : More hawkish than expected is good for currency. 🟨 Why Should We Care ? As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy ! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.30.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
23
DXY DECEMBER OUTLOOK 2 scenarios that can play out this week, preparing for the month of December to end off the year. Scenario 1 - Fed chair Jerome Powell gives a very hawkish stance during the FOMC meeting on Thursday 2am sgt. Continue rate hikes into early 2023, no slowing down of rate hike to lower inflation rates. I need to see strong economic data during NFP this Friday which will give strength to the dollar and weakness to gold. Dollar to break up out of range heading towards at 110 possibly 111 regions HRHR GOLD SELLS - 1753 region MRMR GOLD SELLS - 1747 region SAFE GOLD SELLS BELOW 1739 REGION Scenario 2 - Fed chair Jerome Powell gives a dovish stance during FOMC meeting, giving hints of a slowdown in rate hikes, probably a 50 bps in the next rate hike or a 25 bps as we have seen improvement in inflation data in the last CPI. NFP data is bad this Friday as per forecasted till date. Dollar to continue its bearish momentum heading towards 105 possibly 103 regions HRHR GOLD BUYS - 1764 MRMR GOLD BUYS - 1785 SAFEST GOLD BUYS ABOVE 1800 REGION
TVC:DXY
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
Happy Thanksgiving (DXY)Overnight, the DXY broke below the 106.70 price level to trade significantly lower toward the key support area of 105.60. This move lower followed the current downtrend but was intensified following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The meeting minutes indicated that the current monetary policy is ‘approaching a sufficiently restrictive level”. This signaled the possibility that the Federal Reserve could slow down on the scale of further rate increases. However, uncertainty was also cast on the “ultimate level of Fed funds rate required to contain inflation”. Therefore, look for the DXY to continue falling lower, toward the key support area of 104.65. Watch out for choppy price action as the US market is closed for thanksgiving today.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
1
NZDUSD belatedly breaks up after hawkish RBNZ, broad USD selloffNZDUSD looks to have taken out resistance capped just below 0.6230, which may set the stage for upward extension toward resistance in the 0.6352-0.6469 zone. Reclaiming a foothold below 0.6150 now seems necessary to neutralize near-term upward pressure. Prices were relatively staid after November's RBNZ announcement registered on the hawkish end of expectations - seeing some gains at first but struggling to find momentum - but overall USD weakness offered fuel thereafter (with November FOMC meeting minutes at least somewhat helpful in pushing the Greenback lower, though its slide began before the news hit the wires).
Long
by IlyaSpivak
This might changed everything for Bitcoin!I know it's a messy chart but lucky we have to focus on just a few things! As we just got the message that most FED officials backed slowing the pace of rate hikes we did see a small pump for BTC and a dump for the DXY. For the DXY I would like us to stay under $110 ish. For Bitcoin we have a few levels to watch closely. First the key levels to watch if we want to see upwards momentum: •16.8k •17.5k •18.6k And some key levels for the downside: •15.8k •15.5k •14.8k The explanation was to hit approximately 14.8k after we did broke the triangle but after the news we have gotten today we can hopefully throw this out of the window. Trade safe!
by Mynameisnotrelevant
1
FOMC minutes, what to expect, USD & Gold - 50sThe PMI data today has given the US Dollar bears a head start before the FOMC minutes are released. Firstly, the recent cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price data has already created sentiment for a Fed pivot and investors' hopes that the central bank may be in a position to moderate its pace of hikes. In the prior statement, it read "In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments." This statement gave rise to volatility in markets as investors positioned for a softer approach from the Fed which Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against in his presser by suggesting that there will likely be a higher terminal rate. Therefore, the minutes will be scrutinised for clarity in this regard. ''We expect the November FOMC meeting minutes to shed further light on the FOMC's deliberations regarding the expected downshift in the pace of rate increases in upcoming meetings,'' analysts at TD Securities said.  ''But above all, we look for the minutes to place a lot of emphasis on the likelihood that the terminal rate will need to end up higher than anticipated initially. The Fed still needs to grind down the labour market to align wage and household spending growth with rates more consistent with the inflation target.'' In such a scenario, this could put a bid into the US Dollar that has been downtrodden ahead of the event. However, the upside is compelling in Gold as explained in the video.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ross-J-Burland