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FOMC

Blackhole Cursor and FOMC Minutes Plots I asked about the Blackhole cursor and apparently it's an Easter Egg they added for a short time. It's kinda fun, so check if you have it. I plotted FOMC minutes and it seems to be more of a pivot than I thought. I figured the speeches and rate decisions would've been cleaner, but these seem closer to the actual pivots. I guess we could break out of the bear trend once and for all, but I'll be skeptical until it does. Tomorrow's flood of econ data will set the mood.
AMEX:SPY
by Nicklaus68
8
Breakout potential on the DXYAlthough the DXY traded with choppy price action on Friday, fluctuating along the 106.50 price level, the DXY has climbed steadily to retest the round number resistance area of 107. Look for the price to break above the 107.20 price level to signal further upside potential, with the next resistance at 108.30. Further upside on the DXY could be driven by significant weakness in the EURUSD and possible comments to come from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
Can the US dollar index (DXY) pick itself back up?What a difference a week (or in this case, a single CPI report) can make. Last week we were bullish on the dollar index due to the cluster of support levels nearby, and expectations for inflation to exceed estimates. Clearly, the fundamentals of a much softer CPI report made minced meat of the support zone and sent the dollar index lower, during its worst week since the pandemic. Yet there are signs that momentum is waning and DXY may be due a bounce. It should also be remembered that the Fed are nowhere near this famous 'pivot', and that the Fed will continue to hike rates whilst the economy can withstand it. And retail sales suggest the consumers think they can withstand higher rates, at least for now. DXY daily chart: The US dollar may be approaching a swing low and ticks a few boxes for a potential inflection point. Downside momentum has slowed, a bullish hammer formed on Tuesday and a small inside bar occurred yesterday. Furthermore, it is holding comfortably above the August low and a bullish divergence has formed on the RSI (2). For now, it is a case of seeing whether it can hold above yesterday's low (105.32) and reverse higher, or whether it has one more attempt at testing the August low. Given the magnitude of its losses, mean reversion (higher) seems more likely over the near-term, with potential targets including the weekly pivot point ~108, or the 109.50 area should US data remain firm and Fed members remain hawkish.
TVC:DXYLong
by CityIndex
GBPUSD LongCable is pushing higher as the DXY continues to correct. GBPAUD and EURUSD are also a buy, suggesting that the EUR and GBP are benefiting from a weaker dollar. There is a slight gap left from the opening price compared to last weeks close, so we have the opportunity to fill that. Assuming the same thing happens as last week, we'll carry on higher. But that is the place on the chart to watch for a reversal. The US CPI last week set the re-pricing of assets and there are still around 30 days before the FOMC decide on their next move.
Long
by Macrobriefing
1
Down first, then up?A classic bull flag had a false breakout overnight. Price has fallen back into it and retested the upper channel, failing there too. The 50DMA is at $ES 3830-40, and it's entirely possible we revisit that level between now and the FOMC announcement tomorrow afternoon. Following that, if the bull flag plays out completely, upside potential is all the way up at $ES 4000. The downside is also likely as participants seek event protection and bid up volatility, after which vol is crushed following the event (regardless of the outcome).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gr8fultrading
GBPUSD D1 - Long Setup (following daily correction)GBPUSD D1 - Wouldn't like to attempt to swing short this pair, due to it's aggressiveness, or any USD related pair for that matter, however, I would still be happy to indicated preferred buy zones upon relative corrections, regardless of where we head, we can simply prepare ourselves for buy opportunities amongst ***USD pairs, whether we pullback and realise them is another thing, we can just keep adjusting our entries and zone plays until something unfolds. Based on Fridays moves, I feel a correction could be due early this week, gold sitting at a key price on D1 resistance 1765.
Long
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
US100 14400 is a bullish targetThe Inverse Head & Shoulders has completed. There will be loads of stops under the right shoulder and the head. But for now, we have to assume that the pattern is going to play out. In my other research, I detail why fundamentally the Nasdaq should go higher but you would have to dig around and find it on the internet because I am not allowed to tell you where it may be. The reason I put it on a different platform is that I can't upload the charts of my research here! The nut of the thesis is that there is still a lot of money flowing into the markets from the US government. Targets for a (i)H&S is x2 the distance from the head to the neckline, projected in the direction of the breakout. Just be on the lookout for a fundamental reason why the algos reverse the price action and attack those stops under the RHS and Head
U
by Macrobriefing
2
BTC apocalypse is nearI'm back with another warning and yes I know I have been repeating myself so here's the latest update... Bitcoin and the overall crypto market are playing a game of ping pong with the market makers actively sourcing liquidity from the futures market. This creates choppy price action without a real direction within the local range between 45K and 34K. These types of environments are far from ideal for day trading and it is this type of price action that has blown up many accounts over the past months. In my opinion you should stay away from such plays and focus on the long term - at least that's what I'm doing. Currently Bitcoin is inside a pennant or symmetrical triangle and should be continuing its trend down next week. With the FOMC opening the next trading week we could see some high volatility incoming soon. With inflation through the roof (and no that's not just geopolitical pressure but mostly policy or lack thereof) the Fed WILL TAPER and RATE HIKE AGGRESSIVELY. The Fed has been sitting about for too long hoping for transitory inflation (what a joke), fading supply chain issues (wasn't the real problem to begin with) and aiming for a soft landing. By doing so, they left too much time on the table doing absolutely nothing, that now they are forced to act decisively or completely lose credibility. This means there is no bullish narrative for the risk-on market (in the mid / short term) regardless of what some "experts" are trying to tell you. Market makers have been preparing for next week since last October so my suggestion is you come prepared as well (whatever that means for your portfolio and your situation). We got some simple levels here that will tell you what will happen: confirmed break of 45K > 56K (very unlikely but never say never), confirmed break of 37K > 30K. Be ready and good luck. Ps. don't get into risky trades, take the outmost caution, you don't need to make money now, you should make money in the long run. For more info check the links below.
Short
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
243
AUDCAD: Breaking out the major trend due to CPI data.Hey traders, Based on the recent CPI data we can understand that the market is calling for a pivot, soft CPI data tend to give us a bullish stock market and the AUDCAD pair along with NZDCAD is extremely correlated with indices, which means when we have bullish bias on indices we can consider AUD and NZD pairs longs, especially against USD and CAD and you can notice this correlation in current market. hence, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDCAD for a buying opportunity around 0.876 zone. remember to respect proper risk management especially in this type of environment. 1% risk per trade will allow you to not get knocked from the market if you respect a proper RR too. feel free to leave your questions in the comment section.
Long
by JoeChampion
11
Bond Market Rallies After Inflation DataBonds have soared after yields collapsed due to CPI coming in slightly better than expected. This follows months of consistently high readings fueling a hawkish Fed. With this reading, the markets will likely start to anticipate a pivot to a less hawkish stance. ZN broke through our target of 110'27, and moved a full handle above that to 111'26. It is currently meeting resistance at 111'29 or so, where a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. Watch for ZN to equilibrate as the news gets priced in. If we can keep going then 113'12 is the next target, otherwise, 110'27 should give support.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
GOLD #XAUUSD TRADING IDEA FOR 07 NOVEMBERGOLD TRADING IDEA FOR 07 NOVEMBER** As there is no such major fundamental events today, we are expecting gold to stay range bounded, As gold failed to break above the key resistance zone 17680-1683, We will be looking to sell gold below 1675 Targeting 1665-1664. on buyers side we can expect some more upside pullback A break above 1681, will be a buy opportunity , entry only after confirmation, Targeting - 1690-1692. 1665-1667 is short term support level , if its hold we can Target 1690-1692 as low risk high reward trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
DXY reverses from NFP, where next?The DXY reversed earlier than expected. The previous analysis was that the DXY could climb to 114, with the 113 price level providing some resistance with a probable retest of 112.55 before trading higher again. However, we saw the DXY weaken MASSIVELY on the release of the US employment data on Friday, with some other contributing factors: - NFP was higher than expected (261k vs 197k) BUT the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% to 3.7% AND average hourly earnings increased. - average hourly earnings increase could signal continual wage inflation growth, but the unemployment rate increase might be the weakness in data that the FOMC warned about. - at the end of such a high volatility week, it would be natural that market participants take profit, with prices retracing. So, where to from here? The good news, the only significant economic data to be released this week for the USD is the CPI data on Thursday, and the expectation is for y/y inflation to slow down slightly, from 8.2% to 8.0%. In the lead-up to the CPI data release: - If the DXY breaks below 110.70, the DXY could weaken further towards 109.50, before a possible rebound back towards 111.00 - If the DXY holds above 110.70, the DXY could rebound towards 111.70 and trade higher on the release of the CPI data.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
BTC back at the neckline (FOMC)With BTC back at the neckline of this potential double top, I would play very close attention to divergences on lower TF for exit liquidity mini pumps. Usual Macro economic bullish sentiment #FOMC mini cycle: 1) Fed is gonna pivot guys - LFG bull market is back 2) ooops; FED is not done - dump 3) buy it back up so that retail can come in 4) retail: hmmm; its not so bad after all; kets get in before its too late.All influencers saying bottom is in 5) another exit liquidity dump by smart money 6) rinse and repeat Sorry if I sound pessimistic here but the macro is talking volumes and if you paid attention to the #FED's news conference, there is an uphill battle to fight inflation with no signs of dovishness anytime soon. This is not the time to FOMO. play it safe. NFA ofc
Short
by BiloCrypto
Yesterday's FOMC: Reality Sets in for StocksReality crashed the party with stocks yesterday, as we have been predicting here. The FOMC event was still quite hawkish despite the market's anticipation that we would see some softening in rhetoric. This caused stocks to tank yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling through multiple levels to find support at 3758. European equities have softened which could portend another dump for the NAM session today. Additionally, eyes are on the BoE and we will see if their outlook matches that of the Fed. If we fall further, we could find support in the upper 3600's, with 3645 a likely floor. A rally will have to claw back through multiple levels. We don't see a rally strong enough to break through 3909 any time soon. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, and it will likely take a few days for the market to price in the Fed's decision.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy