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FOMC

BTC apocalypse is nearI'm back with another warning and yes I know I have been repeating myself so here's the latest update... Bitcoin and the overall crypto market are playing a game of ping pong with the market makers actively sourcing liquidity from the futures market. This creates choppy price action without a real direction within the local range between 45K and 34K. These types of environments are far from ideal for day trading and it is this type of price action that has blown up many accounts over the past months. In my opinion you should stay away from such plays and focus on the long term - at least that's what I'm doing. Currently Bitcoin is inside a pennant or symmetrical triangle and should be continuing its trend down next week. With the FOMC opening the next trading week we could see some high volatility incoming soon. With inflation through the roof (and no that's not just geopolitical pressure but mostly policy or lack thereof) the Fed WILL TAPER and RATE HIKE AGGRESSIVELY. The Fed has been sitting about for too long hoping for transitory inflation (what a joke), fading supply chain issues (wasn't the real problem to begin with) and aiming for a soft landing. By doing so, they left too much time on the table doing absolutely nothing, that now they are forced to act decisively or completely lose credibility. This means there is no bullish narrative for the risk-on market (in the mid / short term) regardless of what some "experts" are trying to tell you. Market makers have been preparing for next week since last October so my suggestion is you come prepared as well (whatever that means for your portfolio and your situation). We got some simple levels here that will tell you what will happen: confirmed break of 45K > 56K (very unlikely but never say never), confirmed break of 37K > 30K. Be ready and good luck. Ps. don't get into risky trades, take the outmost caution, you don't need to make money now, you should make money in the long run. For more info check the links below.
Short
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
243
AUDCAD: Breaking out the major trend due to CPI data.Hey traders, Based on the recent CPI data we can understand that the market is calling for a pivot, soft CPI data tend to give us a bullish stock market and the AUDCAD pair along with NZDCAD is extremely correlated with indices, which means when we have bullish bias on indices we can consider AUD and NZD pairs longs, especially against USD and CAD and you can notice this correlation in current market. hence, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDCAD for a buying opportunity around 0.876 zone. remember to respect proper risk management especially in this type of environment. 1% risk per trade will allow you to not get knocked from the market if you respect a proper RR too. feel free to leave your questions in the comment section.
Long
by JoeChampion
11
Bond Market Rallies After Inflation DataBonds have soared after yields collapsed due to CPI coming in slightly better than expected. This follows months of consistently high readings fueling a hawkish Fed. With this reading, the markets will likely start to anticipate a pivot to a less hawkish stance. ZN broke through our target of 110'27, and moved a full handle above that to 111'26. It is currently meeting resistance at 111'29 or so, where a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. Watch for ZN to equilibrate as the news gets priced in. If we can keep going then 113'12 is the next target, otherwise, 110'27 should give support.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
GOLD #XAUUSD TRADING IDEA FOR 07 NOVEMBERGOLD TRADING IDEA FOR 07 NOVEMBER** As there is no such major fundamental events today, we are expecting gold to stay range bounded, As gold failed to break above the key resistance zone 17680-1683, We will be looking to sell gold below 1675 Targeting 1665-1664. on buyers side we can expect some more upside pullback A break above 1681, will be a buy opportunity , entry only after confirmation, Targeting - 1690-1692. 1665-1667 is short term support level , if its hold we can Target 1690-1692 as low risk high reward trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
DXY reverses from NFP, where next?The DXY reversed earlier than expected. The previous analysis was that the DXY could climb to 114, with the 113 price level providing some resistance with a probable retest of 112.55 before trading higher again. However, we saw the DXY weaken MASSIVELY on the release of the US employment data on Friday, with some other contributing factors: - NFP was higher than expected (261k vs 197k) BUT the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% to 3.7% AND average hourly earnings increased. - average hourly earnings increase could signal continual wage inflation growth, but the unemployment rate increase might be the weakness in data that the FOMC warned about. - at the end of such a high volatility week, it would be natural that market participants take profit, with prices retracing. So, where to from here? The good news, the only significant economic data to be released this week for the USD is the CPI data on Thursday, and the expectation is for y/y inflation to slow down slightly, from 8.2% to 8.0%. In the lead-up to the CPI data release: - If the DXY breaks below 110.70, the DXY could weaken further towards 109.50, before a possible rebound back towards 111.00 - If the DXY holds above 110.70, the DXY could rebound towards 111.70 and trade higher on the release of the CPI data.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
BTC back at the neckline (FOMC)With BTC back at the neckline of this potential double top, I would play very close attention to divergences on lower TF for exit liquidity mini pumps. Usual Macro economic bullish sentiment #FOMC mini cycle: 1) Fed is gonna pivot guys - LFG bull market is back 2) ooops; FED is not done - dump 3) buy it back up so that retail can come in 4) retail: hmmm; its not so bad after all; kets get in before its too late.All influencers saying bottom is in 5) another exit liquidity dump by smart money 6) rinse and repeat Sorry if I sound pessimistic here but the macro is talking volumes and if you paid attention to the #FED's news conference, there is an uphill battle to fight inflation with no signs of dovishness anytime soon. This is not the time to FOMO. play it safe. NFA ofc
Short
by BiloCrypto
Yesterday's FOMC: Reality Sets in for StocksReality crashed the party with stocks yesterday, as we have been predicting here. The FOMC event was still quite hawkish despite the market's anticipation that we would see some softening in rhetoric. This caused stocks to tank yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling through multiple levels to find support at 3758. European equities have softened which could portend another dump for the NAM session today. Additionally, eyes are on the BoE and we will see if their outlook matches that of the Fed. If we fall further, we could find support in the upper 3600's, with 3645 a likely floor. A rally will have to claw back through multiple levels. We don't see a rally strong enough to break through 3909 any time soon. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, and it will likely take a few days for the market to price in the Fed's decision.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
DXY's Life After the November Hike The US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75bps, taking US rates to 4.00% In the accompanying statement, it was stated that "In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments." This indicated that they would slow down the pace of rate increases if the upcoming economic data showed softness (weaker than anticipated). This played to the sentiment of the market, expecting some dovishness from the Feds. The DXY fell almost immediately from 111.33 to a low of 110.50. However, during the press conference, Chair Powell commented that the terminal rate is likely to be higher than expected (The current expectation is 5.00%). This led to the DXY reversing the downward move, to climb above the 111.78 price level, almost immediately . The DXY has been climbing steadily today, with the price breaking above the 112.50 resistance level and the previous swing high. Moving forward, the DXY is likely to continue with the trend, climbing toward the next key resistance level of 114 (with an area of hesitation, and possible reversal, around the 113 round number level, as experienced at the end of October 2022)
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
3
GOLD TRADING IDEA 03 NOVEMBER 2022With the 75 basis point rate hike in yesterday FOMC Statement & the data dependent slow down in December, we got impulsive bearish move after rejecting from 1668-1670. We have been mentioning 1675-1680 as the key level of rejection in our last gold trade reports. with this hawkish move from FED we can still see the US dollar getting stronger in higher time frame , leading to gold sell off . unless we don't have any relative events to bring down the dollar strength like currency intervention by Japan & china , bond buying from UK, we are not expecting any major strenght in gold. with the FED being more promising on their rate hike plan and bring down inflation we can see high demand in US dollar and it can go up in aggressive manner, We are still bearish bias in higher as well as lower time frame ,So no point of we buying gold unless its not a scalping trade from key levels, Trade setup for today. 1.any pullback to 1646-1648 is sell opportunity target 1610-1615 2.Break below 1632 is sell Targeting 1610-1615, 3.Any fundamental event supporting dollar weakness can bring the strength in gold as the short term support 1626-1628 is still playing well. 4. Short term buy above 1655 after a confirmation Targeting -1670-1675.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
Gold update FOMC Meeting 02.11.22 RECAPYesterday on FOMC meeting I had bearish bias. IR were announced (0,75bps) and price spiked up to clear all liquidity above. I did not expected this big push, but eventually was profitable day. I took 3 setups before FOMC meeting - the first one hit my SL. Setup 1 After big push price formed 1min high confluence setup and I entered. Gold started to consolidate further and my expectations were that it will make false break-out to the upside, before drop. This was the case - gold hit my SL, making false break-out. Setup 2 Since price took me out I waited for new rejection and entered again. This was the true move and setup hit take profit area. Setup 3 Second setup was completed and price started to pull back from the reaction area. I opened small buy setup, because there was a chance for deep pullback, but few minutes after I closed this setup, because the bearish manipulation was too strong. Small pullback was created and I opened the next and last sell setup, which also reach the profit area. Summery Overall gold formed very strong manipulation to the down side and negated previous bullish high confluence bullish setup on daily Time Frame. I am expecting new bearish swing. All FOMC trades were lived shared .
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SerpentForexClub
QQQ possible inverse head and shoulders on the dailyThe $QQQ is triggering a long setup on the right shoulder of a possible inverse head and shoulders. A (conservative) measured move of the head to the neck, from the lower right shoulder, gives a target of $302.40. The FOMC meeting is on Wed 11/02. News on 10/27: "Economists at BlackRock are speaking with financial advisers, saying that they are expecting "pivot language" at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting". If these rumors prove true at the FOMC meeting, the market and QQQ could have the catalyst to reach the target (quickly). This idea is only based on the charts, but the FOMC could provide a catalyst.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by FourC
19
Yesterday was hourly OB setup, today may paint another on dailyYesterday, I was happy to take an hourly setup. Price raided hourly liquidity area (above yellow line) into a single print (purple) with orderblock shortly above it (green). I anticipated the setup and placed my short limits just below the single print (my limit is in blue) and closed it all in several hours in anticipation of FED's rate decision today. What was an hourly setup yesterday may materialize today on the daily chart. I identified another liquidity area with single print hovering over it. Further up, and this is not entirely obvious as they come from the weekly chart, there are two blocks. I think aiming for the big weekly orderblock would be way too ambitious, FED will not surprise us as much. However, below it, there is what I believe to be propulsion block. I am confident it is a reclaimed block from the weekly, but it may or may not abide by the definition of propulsion block, also. Based on the FED's comments following their rate hike, I will aim to open a short at some point near one of those areas. Ballistic rallies following FED's comments are often short-lived and I really like the prospect of the potential reward here. Albeit optimistic, I will put my limit orders near the propulsion block and trade at the market price if only single print is reached. "A wise man can hear profit in the wind." - Ferengi rule of acquisition n. 22
Short
by OrcChieftain
1
IS $40 PER $SOL POSSIBLE THIS YEAR?Greetings fellow traders. In this analysis, we take a look at a possible Solana ($SOL) Buy Swing position. The Risk-to-Reward on this trade is a "No-Brainer" hence the reason I am sharing this trade setup. My confluences for the Buy trade setup: - Solana is well known as for its NFT ecosystem. With $SOL being the underlying currency for this ecosystem, it makes $SOL fundamentally strong for the long term. - Now lets look at the technical analysis, * There is a Fair Value Gap around $29.50. * There is also a Bullish OB just below the FVG. * There are notable equal highs/ Sell Side Liquidity around $34.50 that has to be raided. * I will be targeting the Fair Value Gap by $42.50 as my intermediate target price. My Long term target price is $60. - Looking at seasonal tendencies, Q4 is usually good for the Crypto market therefore there is a higher possibility of the market being Bullish than Bearish. My Entry price is sub-$30 (preferably, $29.50). Use proper risk management. With this said, Happy Trading Pals
Long
by Evaliste
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. Really short FOMC Report today as we're already taking advantage of the range and shorting from above. Illustrated on the chart are the key levels to look for if there is an FOMC move! Its likely to be priced in, however, the press conference with Powell after the statement may move the market. We'll be looking again for extreme levels to long or short the market, anything in between we'll leave for intraday trading as we don't really want to get caught mid-move. From Camelot this morning: XAUUSD 02/11/22 1H Support: 1639 / 1635 / 1630 / 1624 / 1620 / 1613 Resistance: 1645 / 1654 / 1667 / 1670 / 1675 / 1681 KOGs Bias for the day: Bearish below 1655 with targets below 1630 and below that 1613 Bullish on break of 1655 with targets above 1665 and above that 1680 Summary: Excalibur target above which we said yesterday was likely. Let’s see how the price reacts around the 60-65 region if it gets there. Plan remains the same until we break and hold above the key level. FOMC today so please take it easy on the markets. Don’t risk your accounts for one hit wonder trades! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
12
EURUSD AnalyseAfter correcting its price by hitting the major trend line and maintaining it, the EURUSD currency pair is now back in its bearish structure, and according to the economic data of the United States and the Eurozone, the possibility of increasing the strength of the dollar against the euro is very high. Our opinion on the structure of the chart is bearish with a high probability to the specified base. This is not an investment recommendation or a trading signal. Be careful with your positions due to the extreme volatility of the market in the next few hours.
Short
by Dalltrade
1