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FOMC

My EURUSD Sells update after FOMC meeting !! - Who's holding ??EURUSD Weekly Outlook (19/09/2024): Slight Bearish Bias The EURUSD pair appears to be leaning towards a bearish bias this week, driven by several key macroeconomic factors and market dynamics. Let’s break down the main drivers shaping this outlook: 1. US Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is in sharp focus, with markets anticipating a potential reaffirmation of its "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy. Recent commentary and data suggest that inflation is still a concern in the U.S., and the Fed remains vigilant in maintaining a restrictive policy stance. The hawkish outlook for US rates bolsters the USD, placing pressure on EURUSD. Expectations for future rate hikes or at least prolonged elevated rates support the dollar, as the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe continues to widen in favor of the USD. 2. European Central Bank (ECB) Dovish Tilt Contrasting with the Fed, the ECB has shown signs of softening its hawkish tone. Last week, the ECB decided on what many view as a "dovish hike," raising rates but signaling that the peak of the hiking cycle may be near. The Eurozone's economic growth outlook is deteriorating, with concerns over a recession in key economies like Germany. This dovish stance is weighing on the euro, as markets are pricing in fewer rate hikes going forward. With interest rate differentials playing a crucial role in FX markets, this is a key bearish driver for EURUSD. 3. Eurozone Economic Weakness Recent economic data from the Eurozone has been disappointing. Manufacturing activity remains sluggish, and service sector growth has shown signs of stalling. Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, is particularly concerning, with its manufacturing PMI in contraction territory for months. Furthermore, rising energy costs could add pressure on European economies, potentially reigniting inflationary concerns but also hindering growth. This weaker growth outlook could deter investors from taking long positions in the euro. 4. US Economic Resilience On the other hand, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. Robust labor market figures, strong consumer spending, and better-than-expected GDP data indicate that the U.S. economy is outperforming the Eurozone. This contrast in economic performance provides further support for the USD. Moreover, the U.S. bond market continues to offer attractive yields relative to European bonds. Higher U.S. Treasury yields, especially on the long end of the curve, are a key factor driving demand for the dollar. 5. Geopolitical Risks & Energy Concerns Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the war in Ukraine and ongoing disputes over energy supplies in Europe, pose an additional downside risk for the euro. While energy prices have stabilized in recent months, any renewed supply disruptions as Europe heads into the winter season could reignite concerns over inflation and economic stability in the region. If energy prices surge again, it could lead to further economic strain in the Eurozone, potentially pushing EURUSD lower. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, EURUSD is currently testing key support levels around 1.0650–1.0700. A sustained break below these levels could open the door for a move towards the 1.0500 region, especially if the dollar continues to strengthen on Fed-related optimism. On the upside, resistance lies near the 1.0800–1.0850 zone. Bulls would need to see a clear catalyst, such as dovish Fed signals or improved Eurozone data, to challenge these levels. Conclusion Given the hawkish Fed, dovish ECB, and weaker Eurozone economic data, EURUSD is likely to maintain a bearish bias this week. Traders should keep an eye on key U.S. data releases and any unexpected geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment. My personal Key levels to watch: - Support: 1.0650, 1.0500 - Resistance: 1.0800, 1.0850
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
Iconic Failed Bullish move on SPX?If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff. Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up. Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were expecting. The rate cut that everyone was so bulled up on ended up backfiring in the markets face. The market sold off and reversed lower. Historically this is a phenomenon we can observe throughout previous rate cutting cycles. Along with a buy the rumour sell type of day, the candle formation om the SPX are appearing to be higher volume reversal candles. Today session almost completed bearishly engulfed yesterday’s session. These 2 candles have also proceeded to be trading at New All Time Highs before failing to hold and reversing Lower.
SP:SPX
by Trading-Capital
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re expecting some volatility this Session with the pending FOMC statement so for this report we’ll again look at the extreme levels. We’ve done well already this week, no need to risk anything trying to capture tops and bottoms, so keep an eye on the levels but remember, the trade comes after the event. The move started early in the week with the price hitting our resistance level and then making the move we wanted completing our first target. This has however left the completion of the move on the table, so we’ll stick with Sundays KOG Report idea for now, but expect a move to the upside potentially into that 2602-5 region and above that 2610! It’s 2610 as the extension that needs to reject the price in order for it make that move downside, as breaking above that will take us further into the 2625-30 region before any breather. So, as the chart shows, if we get 2602-5 and reject, we could see price move downside to clear the liquidity sitting first at 2550-55 and below that 2525-30. 2525-35 if visited, we feel would represent an opportunity to capture the swing low and then attempt to target that 2550-55 region as the first target. We’re going to play it safe this time and say if it works it works, if it doesn’t, it doesn’t. If you followed us this week, again we’ve done what we needed to for the week, everything else here is a bonus and should be treated with minimal risk on the markets, until they have settled. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
3
FOMC 25bps vs 50bps??The day has arrived!! Today is predicted to be the first rate cut by the FED since the COVID crash of March 2020! Two years after that in March 2022 the FED begun rate hikes in an attempt to stop the rising inflation. Now that inflation is close to the FEDs target of 2% it's time to stimulate the economy with cheaper borrowing. The big question is, 25bps or 50bps? Last week we saw the ECB (European central bank) cut their interest rates by 60bps from 4.25% to 3.65%, although this news has somewhat gone unnoticed, I'm not so sure the FED would have ignored it. If Europe has considerably cheaper borrowing rates than the US it could signal more growth to come from Europe and that would not be ideal for the US. Now this doesn't necessarily mean that Europe will be favoured by investors for long as this is only the beginning of rate cuts, Europe could taper off earlier or US could be more aggressive later on, we don't know for sure but I don't think America would want to fall behind. Prediction markets have shown the 50bps cut is growing in probability. Now at 61% chance for 50bps according to FED funds futures (At time of writing). 25bps is definitely priced in, but I don't think 50bps is priced in. This should see risk markets get a boost. In terms of TA, the 4H BTC chart looks ready to breakout, back above the 200EMA and 4H support. Flip the 4H resistance and $65,000 is the target. Be carful today with leverage as volatility will be crazy, plenty of whipsawing and generally the first move direction is wrong. Stay safe out there.
by ProR35
2
BTC Tests $61,000 Range Ahead of FOMC MeetingCurrent Market Activity: Bitcoin is currently testing the $61,000 top of its range support, a strong resistance level, just ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting. Key Levels: Range High Support/Resistance: $61,000 Lower Range Support: $57,000–$58,000 Next Major Resistance: $64,000–$67,000 Reversal Zone: $66,000–$68,000 (Required for upside shift) Potential Outcomes: Unfavorable FOMC News: BTC could test the $57,000–$58,000 support. Favorable FOMC News: A break through $61,000 may lead BTC to the next resistance at $64,000–$67,000. Trend Analysis: BTC continues to form lower highs, indicating a broader downtrend. A break and reclaim of the $66,000–$68,000 zone would suggest a potential reversal, but caution is necessary due to the volatility expected around the FOMC meeting. #Bitcoin #BTC #FOMC #MarketAnalysis #SupportAndResistance #Crypto #Volatility #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction
by Richtv_official
Pre FOMC Rates Decision Analysis18th September DXY: Consolidate around 100.90, (if 50bps cut) needs to break 100.60 to trade down to 100 round number support. (if 25bps cut) bounce from 100.60 to bearish trendline NZDUSD: Buy 0.6220 SL 25 TP 75 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Buy 0.6780 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Look for test and reject of resistance area, Sell 1.32 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY strength) EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 25 TP 50 OR Sell 1.1110 SL 20 TP 50 (Straddle) USDJPY: Buy 142.80 SL 50 TP 150 (DXY strength) USDCHF: Sell 0.8420 SL 30 TP 45 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Sell 1.3560 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY weakness) Gold: Could range between 2570 and 2590, Looking for a test of 2600 and possible correction lower
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY Long - But Don't Long Too EarlyBased on the prior price action, people are desperate to finally see some green candles. Psychologic wise they might think "it can't get even lower, it needs to reverse now". However, especially USDJPY is one of those pairs who tend to be a brutal liquidity seeker. Based on the news events this week, I believe there is a nice chance that we see a bounce, but from lower levels people are anticipating right now. We need to shift sentiment and lurk them into the wrong direction before we can have that up movement.
Long
by Entropie2020
EUR/USD Weekly Closing Remarks (2024/09/14)Weekly Closing Remarks for EUR/USD (Post-September 13, 2024): EUR/USD closed the week on Friday, September 13, 2024, at 1.1074, maintaining a bearish bias throughout the week. The market remained cautious ahead of next week’s FOMC rate decision, set for Wednesday, September 18, 2024. The Ichimoku cloud continues to display a bearish structure, with price action remaining below the cloud across most significant timeframes. Both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are aligned in a bearish crossover, signaling continued downward pressure. ADX readings indicate a strong bearish trend, particularly on the daily and weekly timeframes, affirming the strength of the current downtrend. Attempts to rally during the week were short-lived, with resistance at 1.1100 - 1.1120 consistently capping price movements. MACD readings across all timeframes remain in negative territory, signaling that downward momentum is still strong. This week's key drivers included: Eurozone weakness: Ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone, particularly concerning inflation and growth, continued to weigh on the euro. FOMC expectations: The market is expecting a 25bps rate cut next week, keeping traders cautious and influencing USD strength, which pressured the euro further. Next Week’s Forecast (Week of September 16-20, 2024): The upcoming week will center around the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, September 18, 2024, with markets anticipating a 25bps rate cut. However, there are still uncertainties, with three potential outcomes: no rate cut, a 25bps cut (the most likely), or a 50bps cut. Importantly, there is no expectation of a rate hike. Each scenario will have significant implications for EUR/USD. Key Scenarios for Next Week: Scenario 1 - 25bps Rate Cut (Market Expectation): The most anticipated outcome is a 25bps rate cut. In this scenario, the euro could see a brief relief rally, testing the resistance zone around 1.1100 - 1.1120. However, given the strength of the bearish trend, any rallies are likely to be short-lived, and sellers will likely re-enter around these levels. If resistance holds, EUR/USD could continue its downward trajectory, targeting the key support levels of 1.1040 - 1.1050. A break below this level could see further declines toward 1.1000, a critical psychological support zone. Scenario 2 - No Rate Cut (Hawkish Surprise): Should the Fed decide to hold rates steady, this would come as a hawkish surprise to the market. In this case, the US dollar would strengthen considerably, exerting immediate downward pressure on EUR/USD. The pair would likely break below 1.1040, accelerating towards 1.1000. Should the downward momentum continue, the next target could be 1.0960 or lower, as the bearish trend strengthens further. Scenario 3 - 50bps Rate Cut (Dovish Shock): A 50bps rate cut would be a dovish surprise and would likely weaken the US dollar, allowing EUR/USD to stage a more significant rally. In this case, EUR/USD could break through the 1.1100 - 1.1120 resistance zone, potentially targeting 1.1170 - 1.1180. However, the overall bearish technical setup may limit further gains, especially if the euro remains fundamentally weak. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support The key support level is 1.1040 - 1.1050. A break below this level would signal further downside, with 1.1000 as the next psychological support. If bearish momentum accelerates, EUR/USD could test 1.0960. Resistance Resistance remains firm at 1.1100 - 1.1120. If EUR/USD manages to break through this zone, the next target would be 1.1170 - 1.1180, but this will require significant bullish momentum, which is unlikely without a dovish surprise from the Fed. Volatility Considerations: ATR (Average True Range) suggests that volatility is likely to increase next week, especially in the days leading up to and following the FOMC rate decision. Price movements could become more pronounced, particularly during and immediately after the announcement. Expect heightened volatility during the FOMC press conference as the market reacts to the Fed's forward guidance and any signals about future rate cuts. Closing Summary: EUR/USD is set for a potentially volatile week with the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, September 18, 2024. The most likely outcome is a 25bps rate cut, which could trigger a short-term relief rally, but the overall bearish trend is expected to persist. If the Fed holds rates steady, expect further downside pressure, with EUR/USD likely breaking below 1.1040 and targeting 1.1000 or lower. In the unlikely event of a 50bps cut, the pair may rally towards 1.1170 - 1.1180, but upside gains would likely be capped due to the prevailing bearish sentiment. Traders should prepare for significant price fluctuations and manage risks carefully as we head into this crucial week.
Short
by williamwklee
BITCOIN could see a price @ 80,000 in the next couple of weeks. I know some have written-off Bitcoin at least in 2024. I never did because what you often see on Wall-street when banks and financial institutions have a bad day with their share price, its's the cryptocurrency sector that usually shines. Bitcoin has been helped along in its price by a head 'n' shoulders pattern on the daily chart & in the past couple of days has pushed higher in it's price considerably. At the moment 60,400. Bitcoin's 4 year in the making weekly-chart cup 'n' handle pattern is ready to pop, price now only 20% below the neckline. Now, if the US-Dollar breaks out next week as measured by the USDX-index, and I still have this compulsive urge that it will happen prior to FOMC next Thursday, after which the USD could seriously tank under $1 on an interest rate cut, well I believe that assets like Gold would initially sell-off on an interest rate reduction but I am not so sure about Cryptocurrency, in fact I think it could shine. Some are saying it's going to sell from here. I see 80,000 in a short space of time. * My own views and not to be taken as financial advice. At time of writing I have long positions in Bitcoin, ZRXUSD and DOGEUSD.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading