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FOMC

GOLD TRADING IDEA 03 NOVEMBER 2022With the 75 basis point rate hike in yesterday FOMC Statement & the data dependent slow down in December, we got impulsive bearish move after rejecting from 1668-1670. We have been mentioning 1675-1680 as the key level of rejection in our last gold trade reports. with this hawkish move from FED we can still see the US dollar getting stronger in higher time frame , leading to gold sell off . unless we don't have any relative events to bring down the dollar strength like currency intervention by Japan & china , bond buying from UK, we are not expecting any major strenght in gold. with the FED being more promising on their rate hike plan and bring down inflation we can see high demand in US dollar and it can go up in aggressive manner, We are still bearish bias in higher as well as lower time frame ,So no point of we buying gold unless its not a scalping trade from key levels, Trade setup for today. 1.any pullback to 1646-1648 is sell opportunity target 1610-1615 2.Break below 1632 is sell Targeting 1610-1615, 3.Any fundamental event supporting dollar weakness can bring the strength in gold as the short term support 1626-1628 is still playing well. 4. Short term buy above 1655 after a confirmation Targeting -1670-1675.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
Gold update FOMC Meeting 02.11.22 RECAPYesterday on FOMC meeting I had bearish bias. IR were announced (0,75bps) and price spiked up to clear all liquidity above. I did not expected this big push, but eventually was profitable day. I took 3 setups before FOMC meeting - the first one hit my SL. Setup 1 After big push price formed 1min high confluence setup and I entered. Gold started to consolidate further and my expectations were that it will make false break-out to the upside, before drop. This was the case - gold hit my SL, making false break-out. Setup 2 Since price took me out I waited for new rejection and entered again. This was the true move and setup hit take profit area. Setup 3 Second setup was completed and price started to pull back from the reaction area. I opened small buy setup, because there was a chance for deep pullback, but few minutes after I closed this setup, because the bearish manipulation was too strong. Small pullback was created and I opened the next and last sell setup, which also reach the profit area. Summery Overall gold formed very strong manipulation to the down side and negated previous bullish high confluence bullish setup on daily Time Frame. I am expecting new bearish swing. All FOMC trades were lived shared .
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SerpentForexClub
QQQ possible inverse head and shoulders on the dailyThe $QQQ is triggering a long setup on the right shoulder of a possible inverse head and shoulders. A (conservative) measured move of the head to the neck, from the lower right shoulder, gives a target of $302.40. The FOMC meeting is on Wed 11/02. News on 10/27: "Economists at BlackRock are speaking with financial advisers, saying that they are expecting "pivot language" at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting". If these rumors prove true at the FOMC meeting, the market and QQQ could have the catalyst to reach the target (quickly). This idea is only based on the charts, but the FOMC could provide a catalyst.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by FourC
19
Yesterday was hourly OB setup, today may paint another on dailyYesterday, I was happy to take an hourly setup. Price raided hourly liquidity area (above yellow line) into a single print (purple) with orderblock shortly above it (green). I anticipated the setup and placed my short limits just below the single print (my limit is in blue) and closed it all in several hours in anticipation of FED's rate decision today. What was an hourly setup yesterday may materialize today on the daily chart. I identified another liquidity area with single print hovering over it. Further up, and this is not entirely obvious as they come from the weekly chart, there are two blocks. I think aiming for the big weekly orderblock would be way too ambitious, FED will not surprise us as much. However, below it, there is what I believe to be propulsion block. I am confident it is a reclaimed block from the weekly, but it may or may not abide by the definition of propulsion block, also. Based on the FED's comments following their rate hike, I will aim to open a short at some point near one of those areas. Ballistic rallies following FED's comments are often short-lived and I really like the prospect of the potential reward here. Albeit optimistic, I will put my limit orders near the propulsion block and trade at the market price if only single print is reached. "A wise man can hear profit in the wind." - Ferengi rule of acquisition n. 22
Short
by OrcChieftain
1
IS $40 PER $SOL POSSIBLE THIS YEAR?Greetings fellow traders. In this analysis, we take a look at a possible Solana ($SOL) Buy Swing position. The Risk-to-Reward on this trade is a "No-Brainer" hence the reason I am sharing this trade setup. My confluences for the Buy trade setup: - Solana is well known as for its NFT ecosystem. With $SOL being the underlying currency for this ecosystem, it makes $SOL fundamentally strong for the long term. - Now lets look at the technical analysis, * There is a Fair Value Gap around $29.50. * There is also a Bullish OB just below the FVG. * There are notable equal highs/ Sell Side Liquidity around $34.50 that has to be raided. * I will be targeting the Fair Value Gap by $42.50 as my intermediate target price. My Long term target price is $60. - Looking at seasonal tendencies, Q4 is usually good for the Crypto market therefore there is a higher possibility of the market being Bullish than Bearish. My Entry price is sub-$30 (preferably, $29.50). Use proper risk management. With this said, Happy Trading Pals
Long
by Evaliste
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. Really short FOMC Report today as we're already taking advantage of the range and shorting from above. Illustrated on the chart are the key levels to look for if there is an FOMC move! Its likely to be priced in, however, the press conference with Powell after the statement may move the market. We'll be looking again for extreme levels to long or short the market, anything in between we'll leave for intraday trading as we don't really want to get caught mid-move. From Camelot this morning: XAUUSD 02/11/22 1H Support: 1639 / 1635 / 1630 / 1624 / 1620 / 1613 Resistance: 1645 / 1654 / 1667 / 1670 / 1675 / 1681 KOGs Bias for the day: Bearish below 1655 with targets below 1630 and below that 1613 Bullish on break of 1655 with targets above 1665 and above that 1680 Summary: Excalibur target above which we said yesterday was likely. Let’s see how the price reacts around the 60-65 region if it gets there. Plan remains the same until we break and hold above the key level. FOMC today so please take it easy on the markets. Don’t risk your accounts for one hit wonder trades! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
12
EURUSD AnalyseAfter correcting its price by hitting the major trend line and maintaining it, the EURUSD currency pair is now back in its bearish structure, and according to the economic data of the United States and the Eurozone, the possibility of increasing the strength of the dollar against the euro is very high. Our opinion on the structure of the chart is bearish with a high probability to the specified base. This is not an investment recommendation or a trading signal. Be careful with your positions due to the extreme volatility of the market in the next few hours.
Short
by Dalltrade
1
What can we expect for Bitcoin this FOMC meeting?As the FOMC meeting is coming up in just a few hours Bitcoin is relatively not moving that much. What can we expect Bitcoin to do? As we are closing down the triangle I am expecting this to break during the meeting as volume will start to kick in. We have 2 clear scenarios • We will break up and are going to 21k • We will break down and are going to 19,750k Stay away from trading leverage as we can expect an fake-out up or down!! Trade safe
by Mynameisnotrelevant
XAUUSD : Another Sell ??Update : +45 Pips so far The price has again reached the important supply range from $1657 to $1667! We have to see how the price will react to this level when the New York session starts, today is a very important day, so be careful with your trades , because today we will see an increase in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.02.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
14
USDJPY I Long bias as FED poised to deliver big interest hike!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **USDJPY - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
14
FED DAY!!!Good morning! Well.....yesterday's down day I'm assuming was because of the JOLTS Report. Employment openings for the month totaled 10.72 million. Estimated 9.85 million. So, well above. This is something the FED does not want to see. It doesn't help inflation. But again, everyone wants to hear what J Powell has to say today. What could happen after he speaks and in the coming days? Although we are above the 50 day, I feel that there are more elements of a bear market. We could be in the finishing days of the ABC correction of this bear rally before rolling over. And, I'd still be ok with seeing the market heading to 3970ish, 4010ish. The price action at those levels will really tell me if this is a bear rally or not. So when will we get our pivot from the Fed? I really don't think we'll see a change in an upward direction until early 2023. Maybe February or March we could see a final low. Especially if we get another .75 in December. Plan for today: If we get a 2%, 3% up day, I'm not going to go chase it. We could trade sideways the next couple days before we make the next move. If we push to 3970ish, 4010ish, I will monitor the price action and volume to pre-determine next week's possible outlook. And if the market doesn't like what J Powell has to say today and we sell off....well, I'll start to manage my short positions I'm currently holding and follow my levels down. Stay disciplined, be patient, trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
1
GOLD TRADING IDEA 02 NOVEMBERYesterday gold got some bullish price action broken out from the key level 1642-1644 back tested and went up to 1657, as stated in earlier reports but after PMI & JOLTS job opening data , dollar roar again caused weakness in gold and went back below 1644-1645. Today we are expecting gold to gain back all the losses made from PMI & Jolts job opening, As we stated in our previous analysis, any spike in gold will be short lived because the dollar is still dominating the market with FED interest rate decision today with expected rate hike of 75 BPS already priced in. Trade setups for today. GOLD weakness still in the game in higher as well lower time frame Any pullback to 1658-1660 area will be a opportunity to short Targeting - 1634-1635. Break below 1642-43 will be a short opportunity after getting confirmation in smaller time frame. Break above 1661-62 and a back test , will be a long opportunity targeting 1680. a deeper pullback to 1678-1680 is still a strong resistance and a short opportunity targeting 1635-1632. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change @ 5.45 PM IST will remains in focus today. All trade ideas are valid until Pre New York session , as we have FOMC , FED interest rate decision around 11.30PM IST. Trade ideas on FOMC will be updated hours before the event. Enjoy :-)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/2/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2022 - PR High: 11343.75 - PR Low: 11318.75 - NZ Spread: 56.0 Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Weekend Gap: -0.28% (open > 11621) - 8/29 Weekend Gap: -0.18% (open > 13125) - 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13540) - Session Open ATR: 355.03 - Volume: 23K - Open Int: 278K - Trend Grade: Bear - From ATH: -32.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 12391 - Mid: 11820 - Short: 10678 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQZ2022Long
by mv3trader5
November FOMC preview – where the risk to markets resides Time – 3 Nov 5am AEDT / 6PM GMT (Jay Powell speaks at 05:30 AEDT) Central bank meetings are just so important to sentiment and market structure – when we’re trading a major market theme, such as inflation and rising interest rates, this is the market’s chance to mark-to-market policy changes and how the collective in the bank guide our expectations for future meetings ahead. For traders, notably for those who have exposures sensitive to policy changes, they simply must assess the potential for big volatility, which could affect their positions – our job is to recognise the propensity for sizeable movement, the skew in the outcome distribution and if our stop placement is too close/far from the market. Do we reduce, exit or in some cases even initiate positions? For others, the central bank meeting will shape the trading environment and the market structure they work in - not just for that trading session, but for the following days ahead. Consider day traders who work within a specific timeframe and need to assess if price action constitutes a trending day, and therefore they look more closely at momentum strategies. Or is it more of a choppy, sideways, range-bound day, and therefore looking more readily at intra-day mean reversion strategies? ‘Environment recognition’ is key for day traders and scalpers and edge comes from being able to identify the regime we’re in – perhaps through the application of market profile, VWAP, Bollinger Band strategies (to name a few), as well as good old fashion price action. An overview of the November FOMC meeting As we know event risk seldom gets more important than an FOMC meeting, so this is a risk we need to manage. Trading these tier 1 events takes skill like no other – we must react to the statement, but then 30 minutes later we react to individual words and nuance in the press conference from chair Jay Powell. It’s always the high frequency algo’s that recognise the keywords first and we mortals are left trying to react according. Even once the presser has finished and the dust has settled, quite often we see the ensuing Fed members speaking over the coming week giving their own personal view, and often when we’ve seen violent moves on the day, they will walk back any extreme reaction. The first move is not always the right move. To some, this lively backdrop, especially when we consider reduced liquidity can be nirvana-type conditions. To others, this is the environment where they have no edge and see it best to stand aside and let price do its thing. A hawkish ‘step down’ on the cards We’ve been treated to a roller coaster in Fed ‘pivot’ expectations - Ranging from a WSJ article of an impending ‘step down’ in the pace of hikes starting at the December meeting. To dovish turns from the RBA, ECB and BoC – however, the Fed are their own boss and they see US labour market data that has been solid (as donated by the Employment Cost Index and JOLTS report) – US 5-year inflation expectations are rising and next week’s US core CPI print will likely be close to unchanged at 6.6% YoY - it seems highly unlikely that the Fed will want to promote a positive reaction in risky assets, and the risks to markets in my mind are skewed to a hawkish reaction – equity up, bond yields and the USD lower. In the Fed’s view, putting the US into a recession is still a lesser evil than not tackling entrenched price pressures. While traders would fall off their chair if the Fed didn’t hike by 75bp at this meeting, it’s the guidance for future meetings which is where we get a reaction in markets. We are likely to hear that the pace of hikes in the future will fall to a more conventional pace – this is the ‘step down’ many have focused on. But this narrative will be accompanied by strong conditionality, and the statement will be about giving the Fed maximum flexibility and optionality for the December meeting – that call will be fully data-dependent. So, consider there is a lot of information between now and the 14 December FOMC meeting – we have 2 non-farm payrolls reports, the Oct CPI print (11 Oct) and the midterm elections. It’s no wonder the market is pricing 62bp of hikes for that meeting and hedging their bets of a 50 or 75bp hike – it's this pricing for the Dec FOMC meeting which I think is key for markets. Rates Review – we see market pricing for the Nov FOMC meeting at 75bp – then a step to 62bp in the Dec meeting. The holy trinity – the three markets to drive cross-asset volatility Pricing for the December FOMC meeting So part of the reaction will be seen in the pricing for the Dec FOMC meeting which currently sits at 4.41% – traders can see this on TradingView by typing ‘100-ZQF2023’ into the navigator. A dovish reaction would be to see this headed below 4.4%, where we would expect the USD to sell off and gold and equities to rally. A push towards 4.50% would see USDJPY push towards 150 and EURUSD through 0.9800. Terminal fed funds rates pricing We also look at the terminal rates pricing – this is the peak of market expectations for where the Fed can take rates, which currently sit in the May to June 2023 period at 5% – we can type in ‘100-ZQK2023’ into the navigator. A firm break above 5% would send risk lower. US 2-year Treasury I also look at US real rates and 2yr Treasuries (US02Y) closely as a driver for risk assets – If yields rise then we should see the NAS100 and gold fall and the USD spike, especially if we take out the 21 Oct high of 4.63% – conversely if yields fall/price rise then the USD will likely fall. As always around key events, the reaction in markets is a function of: • The outcome vs Expectations • Positioning • Hedging activity • Liquidity My own view is the risks are skewed for a hawkish reaction – USD higher, but I will recognise the moves in rates suggests the market is largely positioned for this outcome.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXEducation
by Pepperstone
2
Trading the FOMC MeetingTomorrow we have another FOMC meeting. In 2022 we've seen ~3% moves during and/or by end of next day (shown on chart). In my opinion (not financial investment advice)... There will be an initial move and then a rip in the opposite direction for a big move, as has happened in the past. As bearish the economy is and I am personally, we may hear pre-midterm political "pivot" talk to drive markets up for voters. That said, tomorrow we could see a fast move lower followed by a rip up to ~4100 to fill that gap you see in the chart. Whatever happens it will be extremely volatile. Keep your stops tight and/or entry's accurate. What you'll see on the chart is a gap indicator along with a market breadth indicator. We're finishing up these 2 free indicators and will be posting them for people to use very soon. Good luck trading!
SP:SPX
by QuantVue
3