Get started

FOMC

EURUSD LONG: Trade Carefully As Sellers Might Ambush Anytime!With the markets pivoting in the FED's aggressive hiking cycle, there is a fear is the market that the DXY would take a temporary breathing room and consolidate further. But make no mistake! DXY is still in the uptrend as the US economy is showing resilience thus making FED less worried in their quest to tame the inflation by hiking interest rates. Even if the FED pivots by the end of year, the interest rate differentials between USD and other major currency is still going to be wide thus making USD more valuable. As said above, EURUSD is still on major sell trend, here according to technical picture there is a slight room for EURUSD to appreciate towards the 1.01250 area. Beyond this, we need further level break on technical level to assure that EURUSD would keep rising as it faces multiple stern resistance. Have a look at the main chart for all the technical aspects behind this trading idea. Trade Safe & Cautiously.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Another low in play for Nasdaq?Third quarter results for big tech came out last week and it wasn’t pretty. Is this a harbinger of another low? Look at the price action, the Nasdaq 100 is now sitting just below the .5 Fibonacci Level which has marked a local resistance level. Curiously the price structure looks very familiar when compared with the April to June period. In that episode, prices tried to break upwards (1) but lost momentum. This resulted in a large drop to the next lower Fibonacci level (2), followed by a rally back to the 0.382, Fibonacci level above (3), where resistance was met again, and prices fell (4). Is what we are looking at now a reprise? On the macro side of things, a couple of factors keep us bearish. Firstly, the behemoth federal reserve balance sheet is only in the first innings of its reduction program. This worries us as the effect of this reduction is the removal of liquidity in the financial markets which could lead to higher volatility. We will keep our eyes & ears peeled for this week’s FOMC, to identify any potential changes to the quantitative tightening schedule. Secondly, we point back to our previous research and note that the Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio is still at incredible highs, with further room to fall when compared back to the dot-com bubble in 2000. If we layer the 10-year yield (inverted) onto this Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio, one could argue that the tech outperformance could be driven by the decade-long fall in interest rates. With interest rates sharply higher now, and a few more hikes on the cards, we wonder if Nasdaq can truly hold up against the S&P500. With murmurs of a Fed Pivot driving the Nasdaq higher over the past few days, we think this presents a good opportunity for a short position. As laid out by the price structure we observed and the overhanging bearish macro picture we think another low is in play for the Nasdaq 100 index. With FOMC this week and a packed economic calendar, one way to manage risk is to trade the Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures, which is a smaller and more manageable contract, allowing you the option to average into your position. Entry at 11,540, stop at 12,150. Target at 10,300. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by inspirante
10
The week ahead - DXY (31 October 2022)Towards the end of last week, the DXY showed some recovery as it bounced from the 109.50 price area to retest the 111.00 price level. However, the DXY retraced to 110.66 to end the trading week. This will be a big week for the DXY, with the release of the decision of the FOMC regarding the Funds Rate, Statement, and the accompanying press conference due on Thursday. Rather than the interest rate decision, focus more on the forward guidance regarding the path of future rate decisions and the FOMC's view of economic performance. If the DXY fails to trade above the 111 price level early in the week, the DXY is likely to continue to slide and retest the support area of 110 and 109.30. Recent weakness in the US economic data had provided some doubt as to whether the FOMC will persist with its current aggressive path of rate hikes, hence the slide in the DXY. The FOMC is forecasted to increase by 75bps, taking interest rates to 4.00% at the upcoming meeting. This decision is likely to have been priced in already. At the last meeting, the DXY traded higher from the 111 price level, which started the climb toward the high of 114.77. This time, look for the DXY to bounce from the support area possibly toward the 112 resistance level Following the rates decision, on Friday, we'll have the release of key employment data for the US, the Non-Farm (NFP) employment change. The forecast is for a 200k change, from the previous 263k, with the unemployment rate expected to increase slightly to 3.6%. Depending on the reaction from the FOMC news, the NFP news event is likely to have little impact unless there is a significant surprise in the data release. (Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week)
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
S&P500 Inverse Head and Shoulders measured move above 4,000Taking into consideration FOMC next week and the mid-term elections shortly after... I believe we will see 75bps added on interest rates and 50bps or even a " pause " in December, and this will bring a strong relief rallie on the markets, and especially risk-on assets like Bitcoin (late Q4) The FED doesn't have much more room to hide, and they will soon have to give some clarity about what's going to happen moving forward. The markets should carry on a short-term uptrend. Why? - Buying votes and the FED needs to take a decision. " Semi-pivot " perhaps... Keeping the markets happy at least for a moment. It always happens. For several weeks, Joe Biden has been buying votes left & right... The measured move from the still valid Inverse H&S brings the market exactly to the long term trendline. The 20th Congress of the CCP in China broke the Chinese stock market, such as the HSI, and we've seen stocks like NIO and AliBaba with a -25% in one single trading day. This is something i've warned about prior to the CCP event on October 16th. Moving forward i believe we will see stocks like TSL A @ $180 at least (next 3 months or so...) Still, i believe it is a great long term hold even if bought now. In the next 10 years or so, all cars shall be electric, and TESLA will carry on growing exponentially. Cathy Wood's ARKK is at this moment with almost exact pattern as the Dotcom Bubble in 2000 and -75% aswell. No one expects, but it does seem like a blow off top is brewing for the coming months. Elon Musk gave more hints . He's usually right and what he tweets ends up happening sooner or later. Definitely not something to ignore. All the best for everyone!
SP:SPXLong
by KryptoManiacool
USDCHF: Stubborn Franc Likely To Depreciate Vs The GreenbackNot a single major currency has been spared by the wrath of USD caused by the FED tightening. The franc being a safehaven currency has depreciated gradually against a super strong greenback. Looking at the all time monthly chart for USDCHF, it can be observed clearly that the swiss franc seems to be higher in value against the USD as the price remains at all time channel low. However with the FED being hawkish, the 1.0000 supply level/resistance was broken 2 weeks ago on weekly charts and now the price seems to aim for the upcoming supply zone located at 1.02000 area. Here both fundamental and technical picture point towards LONGING this pair. However before doing so, we require this pair to retrace slightly so as we can attain 1:1 RR. Have a look at the main chart for full details. Note: Trade is invalidated shall the take profit HIT first. Trade Cautiously & Safely. Cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY: Japan intervention is not enough to change major trend.Hey traders, as the monetary policy in the US remains aggressive we still see a possibility of continuation to the upsides on USDJPY unless fed becomes Dovish but it's still not going to happen as inflation in the US is still an issue and the main focus for the US is to control inflation, so what we can expect? more rate hikes, more USD bulls and potentially a continuation of USDJPY uptrend. hence in the coming week we will be monitoring USDJPY for a long term buying opportunity around 146 zone, remember to avoid using tight Stop losses in this type of environments since USDJPY movements will be more volatile and violent and respecting a proper risk management is always recommended so you avoid blowing your accounts, sticking to 1% risk with proper reward ratio will not allow allow the market to you knock you off. if you have any question don't hesitate to ask in the comment section.
Long
by JoeChampion
40
$BTC NEW Week Analysis : 10.17.22 Well, according to the previous analysis, the price finally started to fall from the range of $19,900 and showed a positive reaction when it reached $19,100. The reason for this reaction was the existence of Institutional Support in the range of $19,100 to $18,600! Now again, there's 2 important supply zones ahead the price ! $19,800 to $20,000 and $20,170 to $20,470 respectively! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 10.17.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
17
ETH back in the news with Double Top 📈📉After a failed lower time frame Head and Shoulders, ETH is forming a possible Adam & Even Double Top. Although, the V shape (Adam part) is a bit lower than standard. Typically found at market bottoms this pattern can also be found at market tops. It's made up of a rounded left peak, V shape right peak and neckline (support line). Look for a breakdown of the neckline with a possible retest/rejection. When trading patterns, always wait for confirmation of the break out for less risk. Its possible ETH bounces up more before breaking down if this pattern plays out. It feels like Alt & Bitcoin are teetering on the edge of "Bottoms in" or "50% downside inbound!" FOMC Meeting Sept 20-21 could be the catalyst. If your time horizon is not at least 3 years this is a very dangerous area to be in HODL mode IMO. If you are looking for other swing trade set ups, check out my DOT and ALICE set ups linked in recent ideas. 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
FTX:ETHUSD
by jlouvierobv
5
DXY: FED Gives $ Wings! 120.000 The Ideal TargetWith DXY having broken a crucial supply zone/resistance @ 110.000, the road to 120.000 seems obstacle free speaking technically. On the other hand, looking at the fundamental picture, we can expect the FED to keep raising rates to tame the inflation. This would in turn as expected give value to the DXY and make it appreciate further thus sending other currencies tumbling. Since the start of FED aggressive tightening cycle, the inflation is yet to come under complete control or plateau. Still running at a record high, it would take some time to bring it back under to the target of 2.4% per year. So as you can imagine during this time the FED would keep raising the rates or do it cautiously not at every meeting, as a result this would give more boost to the USD. So taking both fundamental factors and technical ones into account we can expect a gradual rise in value of the DXY towards the next supply zone/ resistance located at 120.000. Look at the main chart for the trade entry details in order to achieve 1:1 RR. This trade is POSITION trading and will likely take a long time to develop its trend, however both fundamental and technical factors are strongly in favor of the DXY appreciation. Kindly avoid the trade if the target is HIT first as the trade would be invalidated. Trade Cautiously & Safely. Cheers
TVC:DXYLong
by FX618Analysis
5