BITCOIN (BTCUSD) - Further downside 📉Bitcoin has just rejected off of key resistance after a post FOMC relief rally overnight. Take profit levels shown.
FOMC
XAUUSD 4H & 1H TA : READ THE CAPTIONas we can see that yesterday's price dropped exactly from the supply range that I had mentioned and dropped more than 200 pips! During this time, the price has shown the most reasonable actions! After the Federal Reserve announced an increase in the interest rate by 0.75 % , the sellers pulled the price below $1654 to exit the deal, and there, when the sellers closed the deal, buying pressure was created, and with this wave, many buyers entered the market and It managed to increase the price to ($1687 to $1690) ! After that, the price again faced selling pressure and fell again to $1655! Now the price is trading in the range of $1677! If this trend continues, the price can grow up to $1692! On the chart, pay special attention to the range of MB in the 4-hour time frame and its reaction to that level! I hope this analysis was useful for you as always!
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 09.22.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
DXY Makes New Highs After the FOMCThe DXY got a strong burst of momentum from yesterday's FOMC. Although we got our 75 bps hike (as expected), the press conference that followed was a lot more somber. Powell forecasted more hikes, despite the markets expectations of a more dovish forward guidance. This fueled an interest rate spike in treasuries, and bolstered the DXY's meteoric rally to break through highs and hit our target of 111.37 exactly. Recall that we have been projecting this level for weeks. Currently we are seeing a bit of a pullback which is anticipated. We should see support at 110.20, and potentially a sideways correction from here.
Stocks Make New Lows After the FOMCStocks got slammed yesterday, breaking through lows in the 3800's. We anticipated support at the base of the 3800 handle, but the S&P 500 broke down even lower, currently feeling out the highs of the 3700 handle. At this time, 3758 has provided support and we appear to be attempting a push back to the 3800's. The FOMC meeting came out more hawkish than expected. Although we did get the projected 75 bps hike, the rhetoric of Powell's press conference that followed was quite somber and the markets did not get the dovishness they expected. They've reacted accordingly with this selloff. If we are able to break through current levels then 3825 is the next target. If not, 3758 should hold as a floor for now.
The Bond Market Reacts to the FOMCBonds have slid further and there is no relief rally insight. The markets were hoping for a 'dovish hike' in the sense that the 75 bps hike would be followed by dovish rhetoric. In fact it was the opposite. Yields have maintained highs pressing prices further down. We are hugging 113'12 and expect support there. If not, we will use Fibonacci extension levels to determine support levels further down. Our targets are 115'03 and 115'29 if we get our relief rally.
Post FOMC autopsy - SPX, GOLD, BTC, USOIL, DAX, BONDSI forgot wheat - still looks fine for bulls.
All in the video, expecting a pump up today and then further selling to 3700. Sentiment is extremely bearish and so with the technicals I'm watching I'm expecting a rally sooner rather than later. OIL looks good for a nice swing up, Gold as well, Bonds may have a breakout on TLT, but we need to see follow through - one more low there would not be a problem. BTC still holding fib support - to me that's bullish. DAX at strong trendline support with Weekly bull divergence - also looks good for a nice rally.
good luck!
BTC Long Term Buy Levels and Sentiment DiscussionNot financial advice - I hope you find my TradingView posts educational and entertaining
Bitcoin has been struggling as of late behind a harsh economic backdrop.
Historically, Bitcoin has not performed well in September and I don't see 2022 being an exception.
From the previous all time high of Bitcoin in November 2021, it is down upwards of 70%. Looking at bear markets historically, hitting the 85% mark would indicate the end of the bear market in the range of $10-14K. Let's look at some important pieces of information to keep in mind over the coming days, weeks and months.
Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates tomorrow (9/21) by either 75 or 100 basis points. Given that the S&P 500 is holding below resistance, markets are prepared to either push above or fall below. Bitcoin is in a very similar situation.
The Federal Reserve has expressed that their primary goal is to get inflation under control. With consumer inflation dropping slightly, and core inflation increasing slightly, I am personally expecting a 100 point hike.
Bitcoin dropping below the 0.618 Fibonacci circle would be exceptionally bearish, finding temporary support at the 0.5 Fibonacci circle.
Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment
There is an abundance of fear in the market. Anticipation of doom, with Bitcoin reaching levels of $10K, $9K, $4K, even $2K. These levels are possible, especially since this is the first recession Bitcoin has been a part of.
Assuming an (unlikely) pivot from the Federal Reserve, this doom sentiment may indicate a (temporary) double bottom on BTC. Historically it is rare to see the cryptocurrency fear and greed go below 10, which we have already seen during this bear market.
My Takeaways
Never invest more than you are willing to lose.
Limit orders are your friend.
Many people are expecting a drop to $10-14K. Bitcoin might find support above those levels OR it might find support below. I have included possible buy levels on the chart (in turquoise) at $17.7K, $16.6K, $14.3K, $12.5K, $9.4K, and $5.7K. Given a drop below $2.7K (in orange), it would be safe to assume in my mind that Bitcoin is in an extended bear market at least until the Federal Reserve pivots to a more dovish stance.
Nothing is a guarantee, but as it stands - the market is not on the side of Bitcoin.
"No cash on me girl, I only pay with circles" ~Deaton Chris Anthony
Happy trading (and investing), everyone!
APPLE TRADE BONUS AND REVISION.Some adjustments to the TA. still heading up to 158 to grab liquidity by folding shorts stop losses. at this spike it is time to sell Apple calls I just bought and buy puts to drop to the final target.
SPX trade SPX trade broke even on the lower 2 trades and finally got the move. Only a small lot due to risk but all good.
Dollar is out of gas, has not moved even after the FOMCDXY officially peaked after J Powell meeting, IMHO, technically there are divergences at the month RSI, that is a inevitably reversion sign, is like a marathon runner drinking martinis, it will fall but when? I think the time has come
FOMC 21.9.2022. Just an idea.In all of 2022. market rallied after FOMC meeting just to go lower shortly afterwards. Only on 16th march it went lower straight away.
My base case is market just go lower fading the summer rally move all the way and finding support somewhere around 269 (PT 1, june 22. low) or 237 (PT2, precovid high).
Second case is retest of vopc, roughly 312. and than lower.
Third case brakes through 312 and retest it, that would be bullish case for me.
All thoughts and ideas are welcome.
Happy hunting.
FOMC meeting is close - what to expectBTC is consolidating before the movement, you can see how spread is lowering.
Usually during FOMC price goes both ways so don't try to enter with scalp stop-losses.
On chart I draw with horizontal lines targets for marketmaker. in 70% of cases he will hit both.
I advice you not to participate in trades during FOMC meeting if you don't know any exploit. Take care
If you like the idea, please, press a like to let me know that my work is valuable for you. Thank you and trade wisely!💓😊
FOMC NEWS IMPACT 100% Accuracy SignalWe are a professional forex trader from 9 years . working on smartmoney concept .
BTCUSDT 60 min chart analysis
As we approach the FOMC release, volatility in the market is expected to increase. As we can see, price has rallied to a key Bearish Orderblock on the hourly timeframe chart.
I am looking to short BTCUSDT due to the following confluences:
~ Price has reached a key Bearish Orderblock.
~ Price has reached the premium area of the current trading range on this hourly chart.
~ There is Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) by $18 800 that is very likely to get raided.
~ There is a Fair Value Gap (FVG) just below the BSL by $18 500.
~ The Market structure on the higher timeframes such as the Daily timeframe is still bearish with a major BSL around $17 500 price level. So i can expect price to reach that price level before targeting the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) above current price level.
Any important news release adds volatility to make the price action move quicker than usual days when there are no news releases. This is a High probable trade setup but not a Certainty.
Happy Trading Pals
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC
This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price.
For this FOMC KOG Report we’re going to reference the KOG Report shared on Sunday where we said we would be looking for some form of relief rally in Gold. We suggested earlier in the month that we could potentially see this rally happening at some point during the last week of September, so for that reason we will be looking at the lower levels to go long. We have targets below which we would like to see completed before the move to the upside, what we want to see though is how the price reacts to these levels and where it creates its base. Our daily is already showing some bullish signs, however, the weekly is suggesting some more movement down is possible. A lot of traders will be sitting long here at the 200MA so a sweep of liquidity on the lows is very possible.
For the reasons above, we’ll again be looking at the extreme levels to take entries with a plan to take this up towards the 1700+ price regions. Illustrated on the chart are the key support and resistance levels we feel they can tap into before swinging the move in the opposite direction! The first level we’re looking at is just below the 1650 psychological level where if we see a strong support we feel there will be an opportunity to take the long trade back up towards the 1680-95 price points.
We’re going to keep it simple for this report as our plans are on the KOG reports and nothing has really changed, apart from the ranging price action that we’re witnessing pre-event. Its also possible that the market has priced in this release, in which case we will continue as we are.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSD aka GOLD FOMC DAYbearish ob
trendline
4hr resistance
tons of confluence for a sell setup but do keep in mind of fomc 2pm cst
EUR/USD remains under pressure ahead of FOMCThe EUR/USD looks set to break to a new low for the year, as nothing has fundamentally changed to encourage dip buyers to step in yet. Will that change after the FOMC decision today remains to be seen?
But I think the Fed is going to maintain a hawkish stance, which should keep the dollar supported.
The euro faces continued headwinds from a weak Eurozone economy, crippled because of an energy crisis among other things. Russia's President Putin has said that military reservists are to be sent to Ukraine as part of a "partial mobilisation" of his forces which means the war looks like will drag on unfortunately. This is bad news for the Eurozone and its energy crisis.
With EUR/USD breaking short-term support in the shaded region shown on the chart, the path of least resistance remains to the downside inside the long-term bear channel. A break to a new low looks increasingly likely.
Admittedly, the EUR/USD looks severely oversold and much of the downside risks may already be priced in. But I will only change my view on the EUR/USD when the charts tell us by making a higher high or creating a key reversal pattern.
By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
If/Then Rate Hike SceneriosIf 100 bps, then break below support & cont. down.
If 75 bps, then remain above bottom support.
If 75 bps & hints of future pivot, then back into triangle with breakout imminent.
If 50 bps, then To The Moon!
XAUUSD : Target Reached ✅Well, as you can see, exactly as we expected, the price faced the demand pressure in the mentioned range, and with more than 130 pips of growth, it reached exactly the supply range that we said ($1676 to $1680) and The initial negative reaction showed! Important levels of supply and demand are marked on the chart !!
Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 09.21.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
BITCOIN UPDATEBTC following my projection nicely from the previous multi timeframe analysis (linked below) Price is climbing PRE FOMC but i think this bullish corrective move is limited - partials have been secured holding the remainder risk free- remember Big interest rate hike is expected later today from the FED, this is bearish for risk and bullish for the Dollar.
I hope some of you capitalised on my previous analysis.
🎯ATOM - primed for pullback?🎯ATOM has been one of the most bullish coins this summer, rising 210% from its bottom in June. Consequently, its Bitcoin valuation has risen ~250%.
Recently it double topped around .382 Fib measured from last weekly swing high in April - this suggests we still have bearishness on the long term.
It also tapped into the .782 Fib measured from previous daily swing high in May before the meltdown - this suggests that a pullback will not go too deep too soon towards previous lows.
The big RSI bearish divergence already pointed out that we are due for a correction.
The FOMC press conference today could provide the catalyst for that pullback.
However, there still might be some gas left in this up move, so I don't exclude the possibility to have another leg up before a deeper pullback.🎯
📈The game plan:
1. ATOM needs to break down the 4h 200 EMA support it currently sits on. Wait for candle close confirmation.
2. Scout the ATOMBTC chart - if it goes below previous swing low (68890 satoshi) we have another confirmation.
3. ATOM needs to break down below previous swing low between the two tops (13.225 $). Wait for candle close confirmation.
Profit levels are at 12$ and 10.6$, based on Volume Profiles, depending on your risk appetite. The trendlines could provide support on both charts, so be careful to take profits in time.
Don't rush into it. Let the news be digested by the market. We need at least 75 pp increase on the federal rate to keep ranging, and 100 pp rate increase to move the markets down.
If we keep ranging, I would be more inclined to do this trade on the ATOMBTC pair.
This post links back to yesterday's post regarding overvalued altcoins - thought it would help to share a concrete example.
💎Looking forward for your questions below. If this post provided you value, follow for more.
🚨Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
