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FOMC

Can Gold Maintain The $1700's?Gold tanked again, but as predicted, found support at 1705, the last level of the 1700 handle. We knew the small rally we saw the last time we tested 1705 would be short lived as it barely moved the dial on the Kovach OBV. Also, we ran into resistance from the 0.236 Fibonacci level, and just did not have enough momentum to break through. These two factors both suggested a retracement. Currently, we are forming a double bottom at 1705, but things are looking pretty weak. We are running into immediate resistance at 1715. If we give up the 1700's, then 1692 is the next level down. We expect 1683, the lower anchor of our Fibonacci levels to hold as a lower bound.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
DXY Hits Our Target!The US dollar has shot higher, blasting through our target of 109.86, and hitting our next target of 110.20 exactly before retracing slightly. We frankly thought it would take longer to hit this level, but the DXY clearly has a lot of momentum. The Euro is now below parity and bond yields are soaring, which has contributed to a strong dollar. A technical retracement is likely so watch for those levels in the 109's to provide support, otherwise 108.50 should be a floor for now. Our next target is at 111.37.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
What to expect from GBPUSD at multi-year lowsGBPUSD bears have dominated the market so aggressively over the past 14 months. The Russia/ Ukraine war, Socio-economic tensions, and the successive FED interest rate hikes have only served to accelerate this sell-off. However, price has reached a pivot as it bounced off 1.1500 psychological level which is also a double bottom pattern on both the Weekly and Monthly charts. To put things into perspective, you'd have to go back to April 1985 to get a lower price than this current level! This is way before the market even became deregulated for retail trading! This level could serve as a profit taking level which could attract some Bullish price action in the coming days The Daily chart also hit a Descending Channel support which intersects the key level support. We have had successive bearish BOS on the H1. Before I go long, I will like to have a shift in direction signified by a CHOCH then a pullback to a H1 demand level
Long
by Autofx
DXY Hits Our Target! What's Next?The US dollar has broken through highs and hit our exact target at 109.86, before retracing slightly. The headline Nonfarm payrolls today was a miss, suggesting weakness in the economy which might effect the rate hike probabilities slightly, but we are still expected to see a 50-75 bps rate hike this month. That being said, the hawkishness of the Fed is likely to be completely priced into the forex market soon, and the dollar may be topping off. If we do see another rally, then 110.20 is the next target. Otherwise, we should see support from the 108's, at 108.50 in particular.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
How will Today's Nonfarm Payrolls Release Effect Stocks?The S&P 500 caught a small rally yesterday, but it could be short-lived. After such a strong selloff, we were due for a relief rally at some point. It appears the markets are still pricing in what the Fed will do this month at their FOMC meeting, but a 50-75 bps is the most likely. We tested the exact level we predicted at 3909. Subsequently, we bounced back to the upper 3900's, where we started running into resistance. In particular, 3978 is proving difficult to crack, but if we are able to, then 4009 will be the next major hurdle and first level in the 4000's. If things turn south, expect support at 3909 again, then the next major level is a low at 3825, but we are likely to find some support in between for the time being. Headline figures from Nonfarm Payroll data for August suggest some weakness with a headline miss and two month downward revision. This may dampen the Fed's hawkish tone slightly, but we are still likely to see the rate hike we mentioned above. Stocks are likely to continue in a slump until September's FOMC.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Recession Keeps Hammering StocksIncreasingly more market participants seem to be realizing that we are, in fact, in a recession, despite what our overlords are proffering in the propaganda outlets. The S&P 500 has careened into lower levels, finally finding support just one level above that which we predicted yesterday at 3909. Indeed, 3928 seems to be holding, with green triangles on the KRI confirming support. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish, but may be starting to show some meager signs of leveling off. After 3909, the next major target is 3825, another relative low. If we are able to catch a relief rally then 4009 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
ALERT - Top and DropTraders, Is This One Key Indicator Telling Us That it is Time to Buy Again? For the last few weeks, you’ve heard me sus out my thoughts on the dollar potentially double-topping and then dropping. Heh, top and drop. Should be a song title. Anywho, a double-top is precisely what the dollar has done thus far. Is this signaling to the markets that it is finally time to buy or will the fed continue to tighten the noose on the markets? I think you all know where my bets lie. And thus, I thought it worthwhile to put out a quick post here regarding the topic. If you’ve watched any of my videos, you’ve all seen this chart before. The RED highlighted area is, of course, my anticipated price action for the dollar, which is currently a key and leading indicator for the markets along with the VIX (fear index). When the dollar drops (becomes weaker), this weakness is often added to the market growth and appears as strength. Essentially, it is simply the market’s attempt to factor in inflation. Strength in the dollar often negatively impacts the market and denotes deflationary pressures, in this case, coming from the fed. The VIX has been dropping since mid-June. And now, I expect the dollar may follow suit. If so, we may have a huge buy signal flashing in front of our eyes. Let’s watch this closely and trade accordingly. Best to you all! Stew
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
Gold Slides SteadilyGold is on a steady bear trend, after rejecting the 1800's. We have smashed through multiple support levels in the upper 1700's, in particular from 1780, the 50% Fibonacci level. Currently, we are hovering in the 1760's, just a few ticks above 1758, the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This will provide support if gold slips further. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but we are due for a relief rally, even if it is just a technical move. If so, 1780 is a reasonable target.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Retail Sales Dampen StocksStocks have slipped a bit from their week-long rally. Retail sales data confirmed the impact inflation is having on consumers, justifying the current Fed interest rate trajectory. The probability of another 75bps rate hike is above 50%. A retracement from highs was due, as higher highs were increasingly more labored. We gave up the 4300's, after making it as high as 4327. We then retraced the mid 4200's, currently just above our support level at 4245. If we retrace further, 4188 should surely provide support. The Kovach OBV appears to have topped off. Watch the open to see if more momentum comes through today.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – The British pound weakened on Wednesday as data showed inflation climbed to its highest level in more than four decades in July, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to bring down prices but increasing the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. FOMC – According to the Fed’s July minutes, officials saw “little evidence” that inflation pressures were easing and are beginning to brace themselves to force the economy to slow down control the ongoing surge in prices. Additionally, although the Fed never explicitly hinted at a particular pace of future rate hikes, the minutes imply that central bank policymakers are committed to raising rates as high as necessary to tame inflation. This is despite acknowledging the growing risk that they could eventually go too far and curb economic activity.
by thunderpips
1
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. Gold has made a significant move from the 1800 region down to here now looking to target the 1750-55 region. We suggested earlier in the week that the 1775 level was important and a close below it would target the 1768 and below that 1760 price points. For FOMC we’re only looking again for the extreme or key levels to potentially take the trades rather than try to catch the move on the volume driven candles. That’s if this hasn’t been priced in already, in which case we’ll see another anti-climax FOMC like the ones we have witnessed recently. So, we have indications of the lower level being targeted and we also have a target above on Gold! The first level which would be ideal is that 1750-45 region, a rejection there with confirmed support would in our opinion represent an opportunity to go long with the targets being the higher resistance levels. We have a weak target around the 1780 region so this could be its destination. A move to the upside and we’re not interested in the lower resistance levels at the moment. They could represent opportunities to short, but we would suggest caution and say please make sure you have a reliable risk model in place. Breaking these levels to the upside will take this up to target that 1800 region again, potentially targeting at least 1806-10. This higher level is where we will be waiting to potentially short the market again to target the lower support levels. In summary: Above 1745-50 we’ll look long. Breaking that level and it’s a not go! Below 1806-10 we’re looking short, breaking that level is a no go. Levels to watch for reaction, 1775, 1785, 1795. Possible turns as illustrated on the chart taking this down then back up. Not something we want to get involved in. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2