BTCUSD UPDATES: Breakout of the Bear Flag is here!Hey traders, in this week we are monitoring Bitcoin for a selling opportunity around 21000 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, joe.
FOMC
A look at the market's reaction to JPOW and fomc co. Traders,
Let's talk about today's FOMC press release, the market's current reaction, and where we can expect this will lead us into next week as well as what today's FED vs. BIDEN admin tug-o-war means for future macroeconomic conditions.
USDJPY: Forming Bull flag before take off?Hey traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a buying opportunity around 135 zone, once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
ALERT - Top and DropTraders,
Is This One Key Indicator Telling Us That it is Time to Buy Again?
For the last few weeks, you’ve heard me sus out my thoughts on the dollar potentially double-topping and then dropping. Heh, top and drop. Should be a song title.
Anywho, a double-top is precisely what the dollar has done thus far. Is this signaling to the markets that it is finally time to buy or will the fed continue to tighten the noose on the markets? I think you all know where my bets lie. And thus, I thought it worthwhile to put out a quick post here regarding the topic.
If you’ve watched any of my videos, you’ve all seen this chart before. The RED highlighted area is, of course, my anticipated price action for the dollar, which is currently a key and leading indicator for the markets along with the VIX (fear index). When the dollar drops (becomes weaker), this weakness is often added to the market growth and appears as strength. Essentially, it is simply the market’s attempt to factor in inflation. Strength in the dollar often negatively impacts the market and denotes deflationary pressures, in this case, coming from the fed.
The VIX has been dropping since mid-June. And now, I expect the dollar may follow suit. If so, we may have a huge buy signal flashing in front of our eyes. Let’s watch this closely and trade accordingly.
Best to you all!
Stew
SPX FOMC DEGEN
OANDA:SPX500USD
DEGEN QUICK SCALP buy-side liquidity run to clear those lows....not for the faint of heart
Gold Slides SteadilyGold is on a steady bear trend, after rejecting the 1800's. We have smashed through multiple support levels in the upper 1700's, in particular from 1780, the 50% Fibonacci level. Currently, we are hovering in the 1760's, just a few ticks above 1758, the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This will provide support if gold slips further. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but we are due for a relief rally, even if it is just a technical move. If so, 1780 is a reasonable target.
DXY: breaking strong resistance, is it heading to the moon?Hey traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 107.4 zone, once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
Retail Sales Dampen StocksStocks have slipped a bit from their week-long rally. Retail sales data confirmed the impact inflation is having on consumers, justifying the current Fed interest rate trajectory. The probability of another 75bps rate hike is above 50%. A retracement from highs was due, as higher highs were increasingly more labored. We gave up the 4300's, after making it as high as 4327. We then retraced the mid 4200's, currently just above our support level at 4245. If we retrace further, 4188 should surely provide support. The Kovach OBV appears to have topped off. Watch the open to see if more momentum comes through today.
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – The British pound weakened on Wednesday as data showed inflation climbed to its highest level in more than four decades in July, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to bring down prices but increasing the risk of a sharper economic slowdown.
FOMC – According to the Fed’s July minutes, officials saw “little evidence” that inflation pressures were easing and are beginning to brace themselves to force the economy to slow down control the ongoing surge in prices.
Additionally, although the Fed never explicitly hinted at a particular pace of future rate hikes, the minutes imply that central bank policymakers are committed to raising rates as high as necessary to tame inflation. This is despite acknowledging the growing risk that they could eventually go too far and curb economic activity.
ETH longs?COINBASE:ETHUSD
Looking for price to revisit the areas marked from the previous week. With FOMC news coming out within an hour, it would not surprise me if price whiplashes clearing out both buy-side as well as sell-side liquidity pools. Becarful trading prior to and during the event, I will be waiting for the aftermath then reassess the market.
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC
This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price.
Gold has made a significant move from the 1800 region down to here now looking to target the 1750-55 region. We suggested earlier in the week that the 1775 level was important and a close below it would target the 1768 and below that 1760 price points. For FOMC we’re only looking again for the extreme or key levels to potentially take the trades rather than try to catch the move on the volume driven candles. That’s if this hasn’t been priced in already, in which case we’ll see another anti-climax FOMC like the ones we have witnessed recently.
So, we have indications of the lower level being targeted and we also have a target above on Gold! The first level which would be ideal is that 1750-45 region, a rejection there with confirmed support would in our opinion represent an opportunity to go long with the targets being the higher resistance levels. We have a weak target around the 1780 region so this could be its destination.
A move to the upside and we’re not interested in the lower resistance levels at the moment. They could represent opportunities to short, but we would suggest caution and say please make sure you have a reliable risk model in place. Breaking these levels to the upside will take this up to target that 1800 region again, potentially targeting at least 1806-10. This higher level is where we will be waiting to potentially short the market again to target the lower support levels.
In summary:
Above 1745-50 we’ll look long. Breaking that level and it’s a not go!
Below 1806-10 we’re looking short, breaking that level is a no go.
Levels to watch for reaction, 1775, 1785, 1795. Possible turns as illustrated on the chart taking this down then back up. Not something we want to get involved in.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
DXY D1 - Long SignalDXY D1
Still quietly confident that the dollar is going to take off upside, it's just a matter of time, the data points released haven't exactly been complimentary, but that being said.
The economic data points have been shaken off and we still expecting a dollar break of 107.00 we can then load up on our USD longs, commodities are still setup bearish, as per the above (and below to follow).
US DOLLAR CHART AND MARKET ANALYSISWelcome back to another video, today's video is about the analysis of USOIL using the monthly, weekly and daily timeframe to understand and see price movements for possible next direction (either downwards or upwards trend).
Stocks Open Near HighsStocks opened near highs as investors digest last week's data. We have retail sales and housing data this week, which may contribute to a clearer picture of the Fed's plan for their September meeting. Currently, the estimate seems to be a 50bps rate hike, followed by a potential softening in policy stance. The S&P 500 hit our target of 4272, and seems to be tapering slightly. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has started to level off. If we see resistance here, watch for support in the lower 4200's or 4188. If we are able to break out again, then 4306 is the next target.
GBPUSD D1 - Short SignalGBPUSD D1
This is the FX pair we are following closest with regards to USD performance, as previously mentioned, we are still 'technically' in a down trend following the data points we have recently seen, lower lows and lower highs are still in-tact.
$ES - What to do now?$ES - What to do now?
This weekend, I present you many ideas in various assets and here's one chart of $ES is last and its important chart I am keeping an eye on for LT positioning.
We've had great bullish momentum due to 'we are at neutral rates', CPI steady - For now and all data is excelling perfectly this week we do have FOMC minutes and as have US Retail sales. The key areas I am keeping in mind when it comes to fundamentals is the factoring in credit cards, has been escalating further and real estate is in trouble due to obviously high rates. There are many other bearish fundamental factors but then we have the bullish momentum side technically - ES is bullish and the fundamentals less rate hikes of hights 75 is less anticipated and further slow down leading DXY to pull back and ES, RYT, NQ & even looking at QQQ to excel further and this could be the bottom of 3700 areas for ES.
Technically - we are a trendline resistance which comes at the levels of: 4300-4200 areas. A key pull back towards areas of support of: 4180, 4000 & 3900. Are the areas I am keeping an eye on.
TJ
Monthly Bitcoin AnalysisHi, I hope you're doing well.
On the monthly chart of Bitcoin and the analysis of its Accumulation/Distribution indicator, we can observe that the slope of the A/D line is showing some potential bottoming.
Whenever the slope of EMA and SMA of the line turns positive, we can say the probability of the bitcoin bottom is very high.
But all of this depends on the inflation rate of the US. If FOMC announces that the inflation is tamed and the rate goes down for the first time, a market switch could happen.
Thanks for your time.
Regards, Hashemi.
Softer Fed Outlook Fuels Stock RallyStocks have rallied, breaking through to higher levels. The markets seem to interpret recent economic data in a manner that suggests that the Fed is going to cool down their hawkish stance. Right now, a 50bps rate hike is expected for September (potentially the last one), whereas 75bps was not off the table before Wednesday's CPI. This was further supported by Producer Prices. Markets are considering this a green light to rally again. We have broken past 4245, but have fallen just short of our target of 4272. Resistance is confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up with the rally, but it does appear that momentum is stalling. We are due for a bit of a retracement, with 4188 a reasonable area to expect support. If the rally can continue then 4272 is the next target with 4293 and 4306 in line after that.
Stocks Range Ahead of CPIStocks have established highs, then immediately rejected them, and are continuing the sideways correction. We mentioned that 4178 and 4188 will be very hard to break, as they correspond to relative highs from a previous range held in June. We are seeing support from 4122, but we are on the precipice of a vacuum zone below to 4068. There is another vacuum zone below that to 4009. The Kovach OBV has leveled off so if nothing signficant happens, then we should maintain the current range. All eyes are on CPI today, which will provide a reading on the massive inflation we have been seeing as of late. This will give us more insight as to the Fed's plan to raise rates, potentially by 50bps at the September FOMC. Don't expect much action in stocks until at least 8:30AM EST, when the data is released.
GOLD: giving us better entries for potential downsidesHey traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a selling opportunity around 1800 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
Expectations for September's FOMCWhat do the markets care about this week? We have another CPI print on Wednesday, which is highly anticipated. We are in a period of nasty stagflation and the Fed is caught in a difficult position. They want to raise rates further, but the issue is that our cause of inflation seems to be on the supply chain side. Interest rates will do little to combat this. The NFP numbers Friday were pretty strong, so their case is strengthened to raise by at least 50bps in September, at the next FOMC. It will be almost a certainty if CPI comes in hot.
Note that GDP came in contractionary for two quarters in a row, which is the definition most use for a recession. This stands somewhat at odds with the strong NFP numbers, which could be a seasonal fluke. If the data continues to indicate that we are in a recession, the Fed will eventually be forced to lower rates again. The markets seem to be weighing this reality before rallying with conviction.
DXY: will we have more fresh highs?Hey traders, Above is a technical overview on DXY and the most important zone to watch, i highly recommend to take a look at DXY at the beginning of every trading week if not everyday, that will help you to Spot the direction of USD pairs and allow you to trade them in a more professional way.
in the coming week we are monitoring USD INDEX for buying opportunity around 106.4 zone, once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
What Today's Employment Data Means for Stocks and the FedNon Farm Payrolls introduced some volatility in stocks. The numbers came in hot, with a headline beat and unemployment at 3.5% . The S&P 500 had already edged higher, reaching our target of 4178, and establishing value between 4144 and 4178. The NFP data release introduced some volatility, with a small selloff extending past 4122 into the vacuum zone down to 4068. It appears the figures were priced in already, and stocks may be correcting because of that. Also, the strong numbers give the Fed more justification to hike rates in September. If stocks fall further watch for support at 4068, but be mindful of the vacuum zone below to 4009.
