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FOMC

DXY Hits Our Target! What's Next?The US dollar has broken through highs and hit our exact target at 109.86, before retracing slightly. The headline Nonfarm payrolls today was a miss, suggesting weakness in the economy which might effect the rate hike probabilities slightly, but we are still expected to see a 50-75 bps rate hike this month. That being said, the hawkishness of the Fed is likely to be completely priced into the forex market soon, and the dollar may be topping off. If we do see another rally, then 110.20 is the next target. Otherwise, we should see support from the 108's, at 108.50 in particular.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
How will Today's Nonfarm Payrolls Release Effect Stocks?The S&P 500 caught a small rally yesterday, but it could be short-lived. After such a strong selloff, we were due for a relief rally at some point. It appears the markets are still pricing in what the Fed will do this month at their FOMC meeting, but a 50-75 bps is the most likely. We tested the exact level we predicted at 3909. Subsequently, we bounced back to the upper 3900's, where we started running into resistance. In particular, 3978 is proving difficult to crack, but if we are able to, then 4009 will be the next major hurdle and first level in the 4000's. If things turn south, expect support at 3909 again, then the next major level is a low at 3825, but we are likely to find some support in between for the time being. Headline figures from Nonfarm Payroll data for August suggest some weakness with a headline miss and two month downward revision. This may dampen the Fed's hawkish tone slightly, but we are still likely to see the rate hike we mentioned above. Stocks are likely to continue in a slump until September's FOMC.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Recession Keeps Hammering StocksIncreasingly more market participants seem to be realizing that we are, in fact, in a recession, despite what our overlords are proffering in the propaganda outlets. The S&P 500 has careened into lower levels, finally finding support just one level above that which we predicted yesterday at 3909. Indeed, 3928 seems to be holding, with green triangles on the KRI confirming support. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish, but may be starting to show some meager signs of leveling off. After 3909, the next major target is 3825, another relative low. If we are able to catch a relief rally then 4009 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
ALERT - Top and DropTraders, Is This One Key Indicator Telling Us That it is Time to Buy Again? For the last few weeks, you’ve heard me sus out my thoughts on the dollar potentially double-topping and then dropping. Heh, top and drop. Should be a song title. Anywho, a double-top is precisely what the dollar has done thus far. Is this signaling to the markets that it is finally time to buy or will the fed continue to tighten the noose on the markets? I think you all know where my bets lie. And thus, I thought it worthwhile to put out a quick post here regarding the topic. If you’ve watched any of my videos, you’ve all seen this chart before. The RED highlighted area is, of course, my anticipated price action for the dollar, which is currently a key and leading indicator for the markets along with the VIX (fear index). When the dollar drops (becomes weaker), this weakness is often added to the market growth and appears as strength. Essentially, it is simply the market’s attempt to factor in inflation. Strength in the dollar often negatively impacts the market and denotes deflationary pressures, in this case, coming from the fed. The VIX has been dropping since mid-June. And now, I expect the dollar may follow suit. If so, we may have a huge buy signal flashing in front of our eyes. Let’s watch this closely and trade accordingly. Best to you all! Stew
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
Gold Slides SteadilyGold is on a steady bear trend, after rejecting the 1800's. We have smashed through multiple support levels in the upper 1700's, in particular from 1780, the 50% Fibonacci level. Currently, we are hovering in the 1760's, just a few ticks above 1758, the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This will provide support if gold slips further. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but we are due for a relief rally, even if it is just a technical move. If so, 1780 is a reasonable target.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Retail Sales Dampen StocksStocks have slipped a bit from their week-long rally. Retail sales data confirmed the impact inflation is having on consumers, justifying the current Fed interest rate trajectory. The probability of another 75bps rate hike is above 50%. A retracement from highs was due, as higher highs were increasingly more labored. We gave up the 4300's, after making it as high as 4327. We then retraced the mid 4200's, currently just above our support level at 4245. If we retrace further, 4188 should surely provide support. The Kovach OBV appears to have topped off. Watch the open to see if more momentum comes through today.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – The British pound weakened on Wednesday as data showed inflation climbed to its highest level in more than four decades in July, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to bring down prices but increasing the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. FOMC – According to the Fed’s July minutes, officials saw “little evidence” that inflation pressures were easing and are beginning to brace themselves to force the economy to slow down control the ongoing surge in prices. Additionally, although the Fed never explicitly hinted at a particular pace of future rate hikes, the minutes imply that central bank policymakers are committed to raising rates as high as necessary to tame inflation. This is despite acknowledging the growing risk that they could eventually go too far and curb economic activity.
by thunderpips
1
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. Gold has made a significant move from the 1800 region down to here now looking to target the 1750-55 region. We suggested earlier in the week that the 1775 level was important and a close below it would target the 1768 and below that 1760 price points. For FOMC we’re only looking again for the extreme or key levels to potentially take the trades rather than try to catch the move on the volume driven candles. That’s if this hasn’t been priced in already, in which case we’ll see another anti-climax FOMC like the ones we have witnessed recently. So, we have indications of the lower level being targeted and we also have a target above on Gold! The first level which would be ideal is that 1750-45 region, a rejection there with confirmed support would in our opinion represent an opportunity to go long with the targets being the higher resistance levels. We have a weak target around the 1780 region so this could be its destination. A move to the upside and we’re not interested in the lower resistance levels at the moment. They could represent opportunities to short, but we would suggest caution and say please make sure you have a reliable risk model in place. Breaking these levels to the upside will take this up to target that 1800 region again, potentially targeting at least 1806-10. This higher level is where we will be waiting to potentially short the market again to target the lower support levels. In summary: Above 1745-50 we’ll look long. Breaking that level and it’s a not go! Below 1806-10 we’re looking short, breaking that level is a no go. Levels to watch for reaction, 1775, 1785, 1795. Possible turns as illustrated on the chart taking this down then back up. Not something we want to get involved in. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
Stocks Open Near HighsStocks opened near highs as investors digest last week's data. We have retail sales and housing data this week, which may contribute to a clearer picture of the Fed's plan for their September meeting. Currently, the estimate seems to be a 50bps rate hike, followed by a potential softening in policy stance. The S&P 500 hit our target of 4272, and seems to be tapering slightly. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has started to level off. If we see resistance here, watch for support in the lower 4200's or 4188. If we are able to break out again, then 4306 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
$ES - What to do now?$ES - What to do now? This weekend, I present you many ideas in various assets and here's one chart of $ES is last and its important chart I am keeping an eye on for LT positioning. We've had great bullish momentum due to 'we are at neutral rates', CPI steady - For now and all data is excelling perfectly this week we do have FOMC minutes and as have US Retail sales. The key areas I am keeping in mind when it comes to fundamentals is the factoring in credit cards, has been escalating further and real estate is in trouble due to obviously high rates. There are many other bearish fundamental factors but then we have the bullish momentum side technically - ES is bullish and the fundamentals less rate hikes of hights 75 is less anticipated and further slow down leading DXY to pull back and ES, RYT, NQ & even looking at QQQ to excel further and this could be the bottom of 3700 areas for ES. Technically - we are a trendline resistance which comes at the levels of: 4300-4200 areas. A key pull back towards areas of support of: 4180, 4000 & 3900. Are the areas I am keeping an eye on. TJ
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trade_Journal
Monthly Bitcoin AnalysisHi, I hope you're doing well. On the monthly chart of Bitcoin and the analysis of its Accumulation/Distribution indicator, we can observe that the slope of the A/D line is showing some potential bottoming. Whenever the slope of EMA and SMA of the line turns positive, we can say the probability of the bitcoin bottom is very high. But all of this depends on the inflation rate of the US. If FOMC announces that the inflation is tamed and the rate goes down for the first time, a market switch could happen. Thanks for your time. Regards, Hashemi.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by rhawshemi
Softer Fed Outlook Fuels Stock RallyStocks have rallied, breaking through to higher levels. The markets seem to interpret recent economic data in a manner that suggests that the Fed is going to cool down their hawkish stance. Right now, a 50bps rate hike is expected for September (potentially the last one), whereas 75bps was not off the table before Wednesday's CPI. This was further supported by Producer Prices. Markets are considering this a green light to rally again. We have broken past 4245, but have fallen just short of our target of 4272. Resistance is confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up with the rally, but it does appear that momentum is stalling. We are due for a bit of a retracement, with 4188 a reasonable area to expect support. If the rally can continue then 4272 is the next target with 4293 and 4306 in line after that.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy