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FOMC

EUR/USD rolling over ahead of FOMC?EUR/USD seems to have broken range support at 1.0143 ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Prices are retesting that level as resistance. If it holds, extension back toward parity is probably in the cards. Needless to say however, upcoming event risk is heavy-duty and may moot the chart setup. As it stands, the markets have fully priced in a 75bps Fed rate hike and the central bank will likely deliver accordingly. That'll put the focus on the tone of the accompanying statement and the press conference with Chair Powell to follow. Looking at Fed Funds futures, the markets' going Fed outlook calls for: +325bps in 2022 -50bps in 2023 -25bps in 2024 In the past two weeks, USD has pulled back alongside the MOVE index of 1-month implied Treasuries volatility while stocks have rebounded. This suggests that investors are getting increasingly comfortable with the above 2022-24 baseline, and that this has supported some recovery in risk appetite. However, the Fed must contend with structural inflationary forces such as de-globalization and sticky wages locked in amid the current price growth surge. Further, while priced-in inflation expectations baked into the bond market (tracked via breakeven rates) have fallen, a return to the 2 percent target is seemingly not on the menu for years to come. With this in mind, officials may signal that easing may not be in the cards so swiftly. That may give the US Dollar fresh fuel for a rally, validating the emerging EUR/USD chart setup.
Short
by IlyaSpivak
USDCAD setting up for a new leg lower?Hello to all our subscribers and to the TradingView community, thanks for tuning in for today’s update. Today we are looking at the USDCAD off the daily chart as sellers look to be pushing at a new leg lower. Yesterday sellers put to bed a quick recovery rally from buyers by not only killing the candle but by also breaking below 1.2855 support. This could be significant as that support level has stood for buyers since June. On top of the support break, we can also see a trend break and a new LH with the moving averages crossing and sloping downwards. The OBV indicator is also sloped down and has set two LHs. Today price has run lower after a brief attempt to fight back, and we are looking for sellers to break the final point of demand at 1.2820. A close below that point could set of a new leg lower. Also supporting sellers at this stage is a higher oil price. So far, USOUSD is 1.58% higher. Normally when oil is higher, the USDCAD is lower as the CAD is a commodity currency and rallies with oil. If we see a reversal and close back above 1.2855 that would be a worry for the current idea. Thursday mornings (AEST time) FOMC meeting could also have an impact on this picture. The market expects a rate increase to 2.50% from the FED this week.
Short
by Eightcap
BTC UPDATE! HOW LOW BTC CAN GO FROM HERE??Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Welcome to this BTC update. BTC is continuously dropping from the $24k resistance level and liquidate the most of the traders who opens a long position after seeing the break out. This is how market makers playing with retail traders. If you wants to earn money in this market you have to think like a whale. We clearly told you about this rejection in our previous update. Hope you listen and save your hard earned money. So what's next? Now the scenario is that BTC is back inside the triangle after giving a fake break out so there is high chances that BTC might test again the lower trendline of the triangle which is around $20k-$20.4k level. If BTC holds the lower trendline of the triangle and bounce from there then this time we see a real break out and BTC might pump again. But the main concern here is Fed FOMC meeting which is held on 27th July so if we got some negative results then market might take more dip. Let's hope for the better. As of now it's better to wait for the FOMC meeting results. After that we see some positive movement in the market. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Also, share your views in the comment section. Thank You!
by CoreCrypto1
#SPX - Update 7-25-2022SPX had a solid two week run hitting our 4000 Target before showing a pullback. SNAP ER showed an early sign of possible Earnings outcomes for Social Media Stocks. There are still Dip Buyers in the Market so it is possible to see a continuation into 4100 depending on reports. Wednesday is a Heavy Binary Day with Bigger ER stocks and FOMC. For today I'd watch the price action and take smal quicker plays until Wednesday. If SPX can defend 3938 we can see a drop in the markets to 3900, 3880 next. I would wait for SPX to reclaim 4000 for calls.
SP:SPX
by MoneyFlow_Options_Community
⚡️ #BTC OUTLOOK - 25/07⚡️⚡️ #BTC OUTLOOK - 25/07⚡️ Looking very bearish short-term with big bounce incoming. Currently in a smaller short-term range heading down back into the longer term range. That is sitting with a low of $20.3k - with a lot of uncertainty of theis weeks meetings and announcements, also earnings reports dropping I don't think it will all be priced in yet, also a lot of arm chairs traders will already be on high alert ready to sell so this will likely tip them over the edge to hit that Market Sell button. This lines up with the previous unfilled weekly pivot too. It is likely we will see a bounce here with a lot refilling their bags at this desirable $20k price point. I feel it will take off from here - even going as far to say that this could be the big turning point. Although breaking through the $20.3k or even $20k this time could spell a serious blood bath with sub 17.5k targets looking very realistic.
by Kryptochristian
SPY- Bearish- UpdateJust posting a quick update on the SPY here as on Friday we saw a hard rejection of the 400 level. The SPY closed out the week reclaiming its 50-day EMA and is sitting right on it at the moment, however, it rejected the 400 mark multiple times on Friday. Additionally, a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave has fully formed on the daily timeframe accompanied with some bearish hidden divergence on the RSI. Seems as if this bearish megaphone is continuing to play out so will be treading lightly at the moment. Lastly, certainly worthwhile to note the importance of the upcoming week economically speaking. This coming Wednesday there's the upcoming FOMC announcement pertaining to inflation and interest rates, followed by the Fed Chair Press Conference, as well as various other economic data of the likes of GDP data, and new home sales. Staying hedged & scaling into long-term buying opportunities. Just some FIB levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime - (Previous Charts Attached Below). --Previously Charted--
AMEX:SPYShort
by jacobosiason7
1
EURUSD - Be careful for this week! ☼EURUSD - Be careful for this week! Hey no week ahead video this week. However, pay special attention this week we have ECB now imo it's the fact if they Hike, if they do you'll see bullish short term momentum towards upside. However, the amount doesn't matter because even if they do hike, most of EU countries are suffering when it comes to data front and of course inflationary factors which is global struggle but to mix it up a little the cherry on the top for the EU is Nord stream, its suppose to be turned back on this week and now if it doesn't and we get no rate hike expect the euro to weaken further, re-test areas of 2002-2000 areas go towards LT for that. Now that's this week review on what could happen to EUR and lastly PMIs. However, I'm not done yet - we have FOMC when that day comes CPI high the consumer sentiment high, the data front is bullish as well as retail sales it isn't bad data allowing FEDs having further room they could hike rates further, and of course we all know 75 basis point yes euro declines etc precious metals struggle you get the picture right but there was a moment of the market pricing in 100! Personally, I think yeah sure they could I think it's a little overboard but would be interesting as we have BOC do a nice surprise of that and that was brilliant price action. Now, I get it if they hike do not forget to look at EM currencies etc. There so many pairs including pairs like EURMXN, EURCAD & many others that have great opportunities. I personally won't be around to trade this week but I will be keeping an eye on the market. ☼ Have a great week ahead and trade safe! ☼ TJ
by Trade_Journal
Australian dollar rises, RBA minutes nextThe Australian dollar has started the trading week with strong gains, extending the upswing from Friday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6835, up 0.62% on the day. Market risk sentiment has strengthened, courtesy of better-than-expected data out of the US on Friday. Headline retail sales and core retail sales both posted a gain of 1.0% MoM in June, above the forecast and an improvement from the May numbers. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment improved slightly to 51.0, above the consensus for a contraction at 49.0. This has boosted the Australian dollar, a bellwether of risk appetite. The financial markets were pleased with US retail sales, which points to consumers' willing to spend despite the bite that higher inflation is taking out of disposable incomes. At the same time, strong consumer spending paves the way for a massive 100bp hike from the Federal Reserve next week, as strong US data indicates that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher rates. There is a pre-meeting blackout of the FOMC ahead of next Thursday's meeting, but we can still expect plenty of discussion about whether the Fed will deliver a 75 bp or 100 bp increase. The more likely scenario is a 75bp move, but the Fed has surprised before, and a 100bp move is certainly on the table. The RBA is also in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle, but the cash rate is only at 1.35%, which won't make a significant dent on surging inflation. The central bank is likely to continue tightening throughout the remainder of 2022. The minutes from the July meeting will be released on Tuesday, and investors will be looking for clues as to how aggressive the RBA plans to be as it tries to balance hiking rates without choking economic activity and causing a recession. There is resistance at 0.6871 and 0.6949 0.6776 is providing support, followed by 0.6698
by OANDA
BTC - What about after the Dump?I've been doing a lot of number crunching, specifically around Fibonacci numbers and Harmonics. There is a possibility we get a Bullish crab at 16.3k with a retracement to 18,700-19,400. I will be Shorting this area after TP'ing Short at 16.3k. The next target to close FOMC pump Short would be between 15.5k-15k. Not sure which. But i'm certain it's one of these two. The less likely scenario if these are broken is 13k . But that is less likely. I think a lot of people are expecting really low (I see people shouting 10k in chat) and they aren't expecting a local bottom at 15k. As is always we get some kind of Relief Rally after FOMC event has happened. I assume this will be the push towards the mid 19's. I am ready to SHORT this area - it will be fairly simple! All I have to do is wait until volume dies after FOMC pump. Take Profit target 15.5k. The final trade in this next 3 weeks will be LONG 15.5k and 15k, with a take Profit target of around 22k. The reason why it will dump again after FOMC rally... is it because it always does! It happened last time.. it dumped 32k-> 20k then rallied to 22.5k then dropped to 17.6k. Good luck!
by reiiss7
5
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXY Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% DXY, 25% Cash. *Demand for USD continues as global recessionary fears amplify and tighter monetary policy pushes investors to short term Treasuries (Yield Curve inversion). The Euro is maintaining parity with the USD for the third consecutive day as Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi submitted an offer to resign today . Interestingly, as DXY continues pushing higher to reach levels last seen in 2002 (taking liquidity from Cryptos, Equities and Commodities), markets are currently reacting favorably to Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks today about how the markets are "getting a bit ahead of themselves" regarding inflation and that the job market is healthy enough to continue economic expansion. Waller also mentioned that though 75bps is all but guaranteed, he is waiting on June retail sales data ( scheduled for release tomorrow 07/14/2022 at 830am EST ) and housing starts/building permit data ( scheduled for release 07/19/22 at 830am EST ) to determine if demand is still so high that it warrants a full 100bps or more rate hike on 07/27/22. DXY has only traded above $108 in three other periods: 1967-1973 (two recessions 69-70 and 73-75, Nixon "nixed" the Bretton Woods Agreement and Gold Standard in attempt to stimulate the economy and ring in inflation, the third and fourth Arab/Israeli wars, 1973 oil crisis and stock market crash); 1981-1986 (one recession 81-82 after short rate-hike induced recession in 1980, Cold War fears pushed investors to DXY as Russia tested nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan, Iranian Revolution prompted 1979 energy crisis, Fed tightened monetary policy to bring down inflation, stock market only crashed 81-82 and rallied from 83-87); and the only period where CPI was relatively low (below 3.67%) and DXY was above 108 was 2000-2002 (short recession in 2001, Y2K, Dot-Com bubble popped, 9/11). That said, history shows that financial markets mostly tumble and the economy enters a recession as DXY rallies above 108; using this pattern one can surmise that if DXY continues to rip higher, markets may go lower.* Price is currently trending up at $108.63 as it technically tests $108 resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $106.20, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 76 after bouncing at 73, the next resistance is at 82. Stochastic is currently in the process of crossing over bearish as it trends sideways at 97 in the 'bullish autobahn zone'. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 1.25 as it tests 1.24 resistance with no signs of peak formation; the next support is at 0.64 and resistance at 1.92. ADX is currently trending up at 42 with no signs of peak formation as Price continues to push higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to defend support at $108 then the next likely target is a retest of $115 resistance for the first time since February 2002. However, if Price is rejected here at $108 and breaks down, the next likely target is a retest of the 50 MA at around $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $108.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy