GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% Gold, 75% Cash. *The Head and Shoulders formation is currently completing as the 50 MA crosses under the 200 MA (Death Cross). Gold, Oil, USD, Treasuries, Crypto and Equities are all either up or flat; this is indicative of a broader reversal in market sentiment regarding recessionary fears. Both Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said they expect a 75bps rate hike in July followed by at least 50bps in September and then potentially 25bps thereafter because financial markets and the economy are both responding to the rates hikes appropriately thus far; they also both suggested that recession fears are overblown, which prompted almost all markets to rally. Considering that the Fed largely operates off of lagging data, it would be prudent to assume that inflation may not have peaked quite yet; that said, it's advised to continue to be vigilant as the bottom continues to be found.* Price is currently completing a H&S breakdown and is testing $1742 minor support after also breaking down out of the uptrend line from April 2020 (~$1800). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1800, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 28 while testing 27 support; the next resistance is the uptrend line from April 2013 at 36. Stochastic is currently resisting a test of max bottom as it crosses over bullish at 25. MACD broke down below -11 support and is currently trending down at -25 with no signs of trough formation; the next support is at -39. ADX is currently trending up at 21 as Price continues to break down, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to bounce here at $1742 and continue up, it will likely test $1784 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest $1684 major support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1748.
FOMC
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC:
This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price.
What a great time we’re having on Gold at the moment with the moves playing out nearly to perfection into all our levels. We’ve done well on this and we’re not interested in giving anything back so we will wait for the levels shown to give us strong support or resistance before we attempt to take a trade, even then it will be with a small lot and a tight stop in place. Please don’t mess around with Gold when its like this, if you’re in the wrong way Gold can really cause you sleepless nights!
So, moving forward we’re going to trade this with two scenarios in mind, looking at only the highs and the lows of the present range.
Scenario 1:
We have a target below which is sitting around 1720, this is also the weekly support level so potentially this can be a short term stop on the selling pressure we’re witnessing. If price spikes into that level during FOMC or in the coming sessions we feel an opportunity to long the market exists. We’re not looking for huge captures, simply the 1775 and 1785 levels initially. After this, take partials, stop to entry and let it run. Breaking the level to the downside and you can see what's next!!
Scenario 2:
They push the price up, the first level we’re looking for is 1775 and above that 1785-90. If we see resistance there we feel an opportunity to short the market back down in to the 1750 and below that 1735 and 1720 levels could be on the cards. Breaking above the 1795 level and holding above it then its likely we will see this go a little higher before then attempting to come back down
It’s a dangerous market to trade and its not for the faint hearted. Please be sensible and don’t try to get rich quick, it won’t happen! Have a risk model in place and make sure your lots sizes are in accordance with your account size.
Hope this helps in preparation for FOMC, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
US30 Intra-Week Analysis July 6th 2022Last week on us30 we got that bearish closure below 31400 and with that we expected price to clear that range to test 31000. We continued to break below 31k and drop all the way to 30500 creating a double bottom to end the week back at 31k. The reason for this aggressive bearish move was the market pricing in the Federal Reserve announcing their 0.75bps rate hike decision to combat inflation. This week we began slightly bullish before dropping to retest the 30500 key level for a third time. As price is sitting in a key demand zone if get a bearish closure below 30800 we can expect price to continue to 30500 otherwise buys above 31k to test 31400. The FOMC meeting today will likely give us a breakout in either direction based on what is discussed, more hawkish news will lead to a drop on equities.
XAUUSD Buy PositionFOMC in a few hours and setting up my position. Possible XAUUSD reversal to get back to 1800 level. Setting my initial profit call at 1800 but it's possible to see XAUUSD to get back to 1860 again, hopefully before the week closes
**Iv been away for a while, but finally making my comeback, thanks for all those DM's to encourage me to get back. Again, let's see how this trade rolls :)
What to play now - Bitcoin1:00 p.m.
CP - Commercial Paper
2:00 p.m.
FOMC Minutes <-------
Meeting of June 14-15
4:15 p.m.
H.15 - Selected Interest Rates
The next target on EURUSD - 1.0200Yesterday, we saw a 200 pips drop on EURUSD.
The last time EURUSD was trading around those levels was in 2002.
However, this doesn't mean we shouldn't sell.
After this impulse yesterday, we're most probably going to see a pullback and a continuation towards 1,0200!
Entries only after a pullback. We're not looking for longs!
Awaiting the EURUSD Right now, we shouldn't be selling as there isn't a good ratio.
First, we need to see a confirmation that the next drop begins and then to open a trade.
In best case scenario, that would be, after price goes a little bit above the previous high and it then shows rejection.
Entries could be made after an engulfing candle.
We're not looking for buys but only to sell!
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * Core PCE Price Index came out today (at 830am not 1230pm like I had incorrectly posted in previous TA's) and was lower than forecasted at 4.7% vs 4.8% and .2% lower than last month's reading (4.9%), this is reflective of the Fed conducting QT + rate hikes and all but confirms that the Fed will raise another 75bps on July 27th. CPI is due to be reported at 830am (EST) on 07/13 and will provide additional guidance to markets regarding how effective the Fed's tightening and hawkishness is and whether they need to be more or less aggressive heading into the end of the year. Aside from a few stocks, everything is down; Gold, USD, energy, crypto, equities and treasuries are all down. Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman (and former President) Dmitry Medvedev today reiterated that increased Western sanctions against Russia can qualify as international acts of aggression that can justify war . NATO is continuing to expand with the addition of Finland and Sweden and have agreed to modernized Ukraine's military + bolster NATO presence on the Eastern Flank. Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated today that a new Iron Curtain is currently being built and that Russia vows to remove dependence on the EU in all critical sectors . It has become quite apparent that this NWO is here to stay but not quite as clear as to whether or not it will prompt WW3. While all this is going on, China vows to "smash to smithereens" any Taiwanese efforts to gain independence and has reiterated their warning for any collusion with the US . China also continues to aggressively assert ownership of the South China Sea which is home to $3 trillion of trade transit yearly (and shared by Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore) and East China Sea which is home to numerous natural gas fields (and shared by Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan). Though it seems that markets have priced in a continuation of QT and rate hikes, there are numerous bearish catalysts lurking in the background that make the market sentiment lean bearish at the moment.* Price is currently trending down at $3800 after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 (~$3950) as resistance. Volume is currently Low and on track to break a three day streak of seller dominance if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3670, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 43, the next support is at 38. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 65 after being rejected by 76 resistance, the next support is at 48. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -67 as it attempts to reestablish support at -76 minor support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 23 as Price begins to fall again, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX starts trending up as Price continues down this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3950 . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially going lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3900.
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% BTC, 40% Cash. *As feared earlier this month, 3AC defaulted on a ~$660 million loan from crypto lender Voyager Digital that was collateralized by staking ETH. 3AC was also exposed to Luna/UST which probably triggered this insolvency crisis. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler also stated today that Bitcoin is probably the only crypto he would consider a commodity . Important dates to watch out for: Q1 GDP (3rd Estimate) due 8:30am (EST) 06/29 and Core PCE Price Index due 12:30pm (EST) 06/30.* Price is currently attempting to push higher at $20800 in order to test $24180 minor resistance but risks forming a bear flag before it gets there. Volume remains Low and appears to have broken the ten day session streak of shrinkage without breakout or breakdown (still premature to say); it is on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18075, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 34; the next support is at 25.60 and next resistance is at 42.41. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently beginning to form a peak at 93.50 where it may crossover bearish in the "bullish autobahn zone" (when Stochastic coasts at these levels it usually implies that a continuation rally is underway). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -2245 with no sign of peak formation as it attempts to confirm -2497 as support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 45 as Price continues to attempt to breakout of the $20k level, this neutral at the moment; in the event ADX begins to trend down as Price goes up, this would be mildly bullish. If Price is able to breakout here then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will have $19417 support as the last defense before potentially testing the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $19417.
EU SHORT EUR USD SELL SHORT POSITIONS
There are so many opportunities to exploit this cross on a weekly & monthly basis.
Remember that we focus on consistent R pcm , with solid risk-management and RR
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% Gold, 90% Cash. **H&S WATCH. DEATH CROSS WATCH.** *USD is down a bit while energy, commodities, equities, cryptos are up and gold is relatively flat. The relief rally is primarily benefiting risk on markets as money begins to enter it from risk off markets (like gold and bonds); this is still just a technical relief rally that was precipitated by very oversold daily and weekly conditions, the Core PCE report due next Thursday (06/30) should give a clearer picture of what the Fed will do on 07/27/22 and therefore guide the markets in the near term.* Price is currently completing a H&S pattern and trending down at $1827 as it prepares to formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 (~$1815) as support for the second time since 06/15/22. The 50 MA is currently trending down at $1860 as it quickly approaches the 200 MA at $1845 where it would technically form a Death Cross. Volume remains Moderate (high) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers (which is indicative of consolidation before a next move). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at the 50 MA ($1860), this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45 after bouncing off of 42 support for the third time in a month, the next resistance is at 67.24. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 43 as it is still technically testing 53.13 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at -8 as it hovers above -10.84 support. ADX is currently trending down at 10 (with little sign of trough formation) as Price is trending down as well, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX was to bottom and begin trending up as Price continued down this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here and resist a H&S AND Death Cross then it will likely retest the 200 MA at ~$1840 before potentially retesting $1867 minor resistance. However, if Price continues down here, it will likely formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 at $1815 as support before potentially falling to retest the largest supply/demand zone on the chart at $1783 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1844.
ETH Daily TA Cautiously BullishETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% ETH, 35% Cash. *Cryptos and equities continue rallying and will hope to carry on this momentum through the weekend and into next week leading up to the Core PCE inflation report due next Thursday (06/30/22). Which should tell us whether or not the Fed is going to raise FFR by 75bp (or more) on 07/27/22.* Price is currently trending up at $1206 as it gets closer to testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1300 as resistance. Volume is currently Moderate (low), looking to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it closes today in the green and is on track to shrink for a sixth consecutive session (which indicates that a breakout or breakdown is likely impending). Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $896, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 38 as it attempts to flip 36.91 resistance to support after bouncing off the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 26; this is bullish. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 80.69 resistance with no sign of peak formation. MACD crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at -211 as it quickly approaches a test of -197.34 resistance (after breaking below it on 06/14/22). ADX is currently trending down at 51.51 (after forming a soft peak at 53) as Price continues pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to continue up then it will likely face some resistance at the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1300; if it breaks and closes above ~$1300 then it will likely test $1426 resistance, whereas a rejection at ~$1300 may take it down to $775 support. However, if Price breaks down here and falls below $1k, it will likely fall (pretty violently) to test $775 support (and potentially lower). Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1k.
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% GOLD, 70% Cash. *H&S Formation Watch. In anticipation of a critical FOMC statement to be released tomorrow at 2pm (deciding on whether or not to raise FFR by 75-100bp to more aggressively combat inflation), the US dollar and treasuries are once again stealing the bullish spotlight as cryptos and equities remain relatively flat and Gold is taking a tumble.* Price is currently retesting the lower trendline of the ascending channel from April 2020 at ~$1810 after testing it back on 05/13/22 and failing to climb even halfway back up the channel; this is bearish. Additionally, Price has completed a second shoulder formation in the H&S and could see a short term bounce here before completing a potential H&S sell off. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor sellers in a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$1880 (which coincides with the 50 MA); this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is beginning to form a trough at 38 as it fast approaches a test of the uptrend line from April 2013 at ~37; if it breaks below this level, the next support is at 27.07 which hints that Price will have a bit of room to fall in a short amount of time. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 33 as it approaches a test of 25.40 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at -9.60 which is just above -10.84 resistance (though it crossed above this level it still has not confirmed it as support). ADX is currently trending down slightly at 13 as Price is beginning to develop downward momentum; if ADX can begin trough formation here as Price continues to fall, this would be bearish. If Price is able to defend support at the lower trendline of the ascending channel from April 2020 at ~$1810, it will likely aim to retest the 50 MA at ~$1840 before either a) potentially moving higher or b) completing a H&S formation bull trap before plummeting lower. However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely formally retest $1783 support for the first time since 01/28/22. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1840.
SPX Weekly TA Neutral BearishSPX Weekly neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash. *Equity and crypto markets are experiencing a technical relief rally after getting decimated by recession fears and tighter more hawkish monetary policy. Fed Chair JPow testified before the Senate Banking Committee earlier today and the main takeaways were that the Fed will remain committed to raising the fed funds rate expeditiously (above 2.5%) and reducing the balance sheet accordingly to bring Core PCE inflation down from 5%-6% to their longer term target of 2%. He made it a point to acknowledge that financial markets are reacting appropriately to the adjustments in monetary policy and that a soft landing isn't entirely out of reach, which begs the question of how much of a hard landing is priced in if a soft landing is improbable but still possible. Dates to watch: PMI report comes out at 945am (EST) tomorrow morning (06/23/22), Core PCE report at 1230pm (EST) on 06/30/22, CPI report at 830am (EST) on 07/13/22 and FOMC Meeting on 07/26/22-07/27/22.* Price is currently testing $3722 support as the bear market sell off intensifies along with recession fears; if it breaks this support it will likely test the 200 MA at $3540 support for the first time since March 2020. Volume is on track to remain Moderate and could break a three session streak of seller dominance with a green close in this week's session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4546, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 34.67 after exhibiting bullish divergence by bouncing from 30; the next resistance is at 37.75. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 36.55 with no sign of trough formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a new ATL at -167.02 with no sign of trough formation. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 37 as Price attempts to defend $3722 support, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins to form a peak as Price continues to push upward, this would be mildly bullish. If Price is able to defend support at $3722 then it will likely test $3950 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down below $3722, it will likely test the 200 MA as support at $3540 support for the first time since March 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3722.
XAUUSD 1H TA : +160 Pips ✅This is the result of gold analysis in a ugly market😅 , more than 160 pips profit , just look at the candlesticks and how much ugly they are 😂 , It hit the second target. ✅
The last analysis :
The first scenario is fall from $ 1839 - $ 1845 to $ 1830 as the first target range and $ 1823 to $ 1815 as the second target range! The next scenario is consolidation above $ 1834 and growth up to the range of $ 1847 - $ 1852 as the first BULLISH target and then the beginning of price correction to the mentioned ranges before in Scn.1 ! ( this analysis will be updated) .
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 06.22.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
BITCOIN 1H TA : Short Result : +8% ✅ I hope you have used this analysis and made the best decision at the best time. The price started to correct exactly according to my analysis after collecting liquidity above the mentioned level and reached the range of 20K.
The Last analysis :
There are 3 possibilities for #BTC that i indicated them on the chart , The last mid-term analysis was : According to previous analysis, as we said, we needed to wait for the positive reaction to the BULLISH BREAKER BLOCK zone (in the range of $ 14850 to $ 19500) . The price reacted positively to this high-potential range of demand. Note that this upward movement will still need to consolidate and will not be a 100% sign of an uptrend ( Bullish Trend ) , Because macroeconomic factors show the opposite. With an optimistic view and if the price consolidates above this price range, we can expect growth to eventually reach $ 29,000 and then continue to fall ...!
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 06.21.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
BTCUSD Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% BTC, 85% Cash. *Equity and crypto markets are bouncing today off of speculation that the Fed may be able to ring in inflation without a recession; this is highly speculative and is happening at a critical support level for BTC ($20k) which is important for bulls to defend in order to avoid mass liquidations from large institutionally levered players like Microstrategy (this would cause an even larger downward cascade in PA).* Price is currently hovering at $20500 as bulls are attempting to prevent it from breaking $20k to formally test $19417 support. Volume is currently Moderate and is on track to favor buyers in today's session if it can close in the green; this would be bullish going into the weekend. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $28k, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up slight at 22 after being rejected by the uptrend line from 01/22/22 (as resistance) at 25.60 resistance; if it can stay above 25.60 for two consecutive sessions it will help confirm that the uptrend line from 01/22/22 is still intact. Stochastic remains bullish (barely) for a second consecutive session as it is trending up slightly at 5 after retesting max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing -2497 minor support with no signs of trough formation; the next support is the ATL at -5089. ADX is currently trending up at 36 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally test $19417 support for the first time since breaking out above it in December 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $24180.
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPX Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% SPX, 90% Cash. *Gains from yesterday's FOMC announcement about a 75 bp rate hike were all but given back today in what was an apparent Bull Trap. With June's PMI report coming 06/23 and July's CPI report coming 07/13, it's hard to imagine that the inflation situation is going to get better when SNB just raised their policy rate for the first time since 2007 , the BOE sees domestic inflation hitting 11% in October and still only raised their bank rate by 25 bp (albeit for a fifth consecutive time the BOE bank rate sits at only 1.25%) today, the ECB has somehow managed to keep their bank rate at -0.50 amidst all of this (it has remained unchanged since 2019) and will meet 07/21 to announce a planned 25 bp bank rate increase, and the BOJ is set to announce (in approx 5 hours) whether or not they will slow down QE and begin hiking their policy rates too . All that said, a global recession is very much so on the table and it currently seems as if that's what it will take for equity and crypto markets to bottom (financial markets usually rise and fall before the economy does due to their futures dependency).* Price is currently trending down at $3666 and is still technically testing $3706 support. Volume remains Moderate (High) and after favoring sellers in today's session has no favored sellers in eight of the past ten sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4105, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22, as well as the uptrend line from August 2015, at ~30. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 6.50 but is trending down slightly and may regress to a bearish crossover in tomorrow's session if it cannot find buying momentum; the next resistance is at 18.32 and support at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at 95 with no signs of trough formation as it is quickly breaking away from -76.22 minor support. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able bounce here at $3706 minor support then it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3706.
ETHUSD Daily TA BearishETHUSD Daily bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% ETH, 95% Cash. *With Celsius and 3AC both crashing hard and on the verge of total collapse, the crypto market is continuing to take a barrage of bearish hits during a period of Fed QT and hawkish monetary policy.* Price is currently forming a Bearish Engulfing candle (at $1050) as it quickly approaches sub-$1000 prices; the next support is at $775.83. Volume is Moderate (high) and, if it closes today in the red, will have favored sellers in nine of the ten last sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1550, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI was rejected by the uptrend line from 01/22/22 as resistance and is currently trending down at 20; the next support is the ATL at 17.42. Stochastic crossed over bullish at 3 in yesterday's session and is already on the verge of regressing to a bearish crossover at 3 in today's session; the next resistance is at 17.81. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -237 with no signs of trough formation as it is slowly losing -197.34 support; the next support is the ATL at 318.82. ADX is currently trending up at 47 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here it will have another opportunity to test the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at $1350 as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here it will likely test $775.83 support for the first time since breaking above it in January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1350.
DXY gonna hav a crayZ move when the FOMC meeting happensThe fib time zone that I have drawn on the DXY chart tells that there is going to be a strong move but as anybody who has used fib time zones knows, it doesn't say in what direction. The bond market has (according to traders better than me) priced in so a 75bps hike, so that is certainly on the cards (I don't think that that will happen tbh but I'm pulling that out arse its just a hunch I guess) however we will have to see what happens in just under 14hrs when the Producer Price Index is published which should tell us a what the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index will tell us. The FED on their own website say "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that an annual increase in inflation of 2 percent in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), produced by the Department of Commerce, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s mandate for maximum employment and price stability. The FOMC uses the PCE price index largely because it covers a wide range of household spending." so if tomorrow the PPI is low I will definitely consider longing BTC. My only hesitation however is since this move down has been so strong just a limp ass support wont cut it and we need to go back to 20k from the previous market high to trigger a real reversal and for the SPX/NDQ the same is true and that support would be the high before the Corona market crash in late February 2020 (the opinion of a better trader than myself also). We will see
Swiss franc soars after SNB surprise hikeThe Swiss franc has posted massive gains today after the Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 0.50%. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9653, down a massive 2.91% on the day.
It has been a week of central bank drama, which started with the Federal Reserve delivering a massive 0.75% rate hike. This was followed today by a Swiss shocker, as the SNB tightened the screws on monetary policy with its first rate increase since 2007, raising rates from -0.75% to -0.25%. The markets had become accustomed to the SNB's ultra-low rate of -0.75%, which had been in place since 2015.
Most major central banks, with the notable exception of the Bank of Japan, are in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle, as they attempt to wrestle down surging inflation. After the rate hike, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said that the SNB was concerned about rising inflation in Switzerland, which is heading towards 3%. The rate statement reflected Jordan's comments, saying that further hikes could be implemented in order to stabilize inflation.
The statement also reiterated that the SNB would be "willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary." The SNB carefully monitors the exchange rate and has intervened in the past when it deemed the Swiss franc's value as too high, which is detrimental to Switzerland's export-reliant economy. The Swiss franc has been on a slide, falling 400 points and breaking above parity earlier this week. The SNB may have felt that this was a prudent time to deliver a significant rate hike, even though it would send the Swiss franc sharply higher.
There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve, which raised rates by 0.75%, to a target range of 1.50-1.75%. The Fed downgraded its US growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, but insisted that there would be no recession. Some analysts would beg to disagree, but the financial markets were relieved, as Fed Chair Powell said he didn't expect 0.75% rate hikes to become common. This is a massive rate hike, the largest since 1994. Will it hasten the long sought-after inflation peak? Along with the Fed, we'll have to be patient and wait.
USD/CHF has broken through support at 0.9928 and 0.9792. The pair is testing support at 0.9698, with 0.9500 the next support line
There is resistance at 1.0084
HERES A REASON WHY I THINK BTC NEEDS TO GO TO 28K 1.Clear market shift in 4h frame.
2. Double down in 1h chart with no retest
3.Too much liquidity lying under 19.4
4. When using volume profile i see the imbalance at 20.6-23.2-25.2 up till 28.2
5. Some correction needs to be done before going any lower. If btc breaks my sl it goes straight to 17.6-14.8
6. BTC on supp of 40% retracement level in log chart
7. hammer candlestick( reversal candlestick) on the daily chart
SOME REASONS TO BE BEARISH TOO:
1.Extreme market fear
2. Got rejected from 23k. ( major resistance for now)
ON CONCLUSION :
correction needed to done if we go lower on ltf(since 23k rejection). correction need to be done if we go up( since its coming down rn). correction needs to be done before we drop any lower on HTF. major zone for bitcoin with loads of liquidity
$BTC now what?It just missed our start of the box but no worries. i am a bear and i think it's the perfect time for a bear market rally provided spx holds it levels. Although before rallying i first would like to see btc hold 20k when spx take out the lows of 2021. the first target for rally would be 28k then 33k if that holds we can talk about 35k and 40k. This would be a perfect bear market rally as people will think the bulls are back but in real this will be crushing so many retailers. I think after hitting these there's a possibility of going down bad depending on the economical situation. my targets would be 15k-11k-9k. a big accumulation for 3-6 months is what i want to see to start a new cycle.
FED's rate hike will play a major role taking the liquidity out of the market making sure people believe everything is dead.
