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FOMC

Bitcoin Short - don't always short butI like to short altcoins and long Bitcoin BUT... when Jerome Powell will likely be delivering a KO to the market today at the top of the most clear range ever.. I can't help but call out what I am going to shoot at. #BTC has gone from $28600 > $30,600 > $28600 > $30,600 > $28600 > $30,600 > $28600 > and not heading to $30600 pending bad news.. If JPOW surprises everyone and says they are pulling back because their silly rate hikes are killing the market and not fighting inflation at all... then invalidated and get out of the way fast! If he does what everyone thinks he will and announces more hikes coming (50 or 75 bps) Bitcoin is probably going to see sub $20,000 in a hurry. (where I will be selling body parts to buy) Good luck out there!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Trainwreck
3
Gold Analysis Ahead of The FOMC. How to trade gold at FOMC? The much awaited FOMC will be released in a few hours. Naturally, there happens a big movement in dollar related pairs during FOMC. There are two parts to the FOMC statement 1. Hawkish 2. Dovish In a nutshell, hawkish means positive economic activity or optimistic positive economic projections. Hawkish statement includes all positive economic outcomes, including positive economic growth, positive trade balance, positive upcoming economic projections, more job creation, bank rates and salary increases. And Dovish is the opposite of all hawks. Now the thing is, not everything in a country is as positive, but not everything is negative. That's why we look at two or three important matters in each FOMC. If these two / three issues are positive then we do not accept the statement is hawkish, and if it is negative then we consider that the statement is dovish. The key issues in today's FOMC statement are inflation, economic growth and bank rates. And the biggest issue is the bank rate. If all three of these issues are positive then we will take the statement hawkish and we will buy dollars against other currencies. In that case we must sell gold. Now we will check the previous data a little bit about upcoming FOMC statement, from the previous data it is understood that the economic growth i.e. the previous GDP report dropped and this week the GDP report has forecast negative. That means economic growth is negative. But the job market report was positive in that case, although the economic growth is negative, the United States has some advantages compared to other countries. In that case economic growth is not entirely hawkish, but better than others. Inflation, on the other hand, is in a super high position. The last CPI report was positive. It is good to increase inflation to a certain level, but it is dangerous to increase it too much. American inflation is now in a somewhat dangerous state. We will not call it positive at all. However, it could also be positive if Powell mentions in his statement that inflation has risen, in the future we will raise rates further to control inflation. Basically, central bank rise bank rates to control inflation. So we have to see how Powell treats this higher inflation. If there are hints of more rate hikes up front, then it makes sense. This will be considered as higher inflation positive and the statement is hawkish. Now let's come to the most important issue, rate hints. Basically, almost everything depends on this issue today. If Powell says today that they want to increase the rate by 50 bp even after July, then the statement will be hawkish. But if there are no hints about the aftermath of July, the dollar may not benefit much. Because it has already said that it will increase the rate by 50 bp in July-July, and the dollar has already become quite strong in the market with the price in it. So, we have to keep this in mind at the time of the statement, what Powell says about the upcoming bank rates. Now if the FED says that we no longer need to raise rates, or hints to raise rates below 25 BP, then the dollar will be weak against gold, if nothing else. Although such a possibility is low, but not absolutely impossible. The dollar has strengthened against almost all currencies around the world. If the dollar is so strong in the long run, it will be bad for America in the long run as a reserve currency. American trade will decline, exports will decline. From my own experience, I had seen many times if the dollar is strong in the long run, the FED willfully give a dovish statement just to weaken the dollar. So as not to have a negative impact on the economy in the long run. And since the dollar has been strong for several months now, and there is no press conference in today's statement, the Fed may be willing to issue a dovish statement. I will not make any decision beforehand of the FOMC but after FOMC, we will open trades based on the statement. Technical view Immediate resistance from the current rate is $1870 And there is support at $ 1850/1845. Until FOMC, there is an opportunity that gold may test $1850/1845. If the statement is dovish then Gold is more likely to test $1870 area by bouncing from $1850/45. If the statement is too dovish, it can break $1870 and may test $1880 areas. However, in the current context, it is very difficult for Gold to go above 1880 area. On the other hand, if the FOMC statement is hawkish and the gold is stable below the $1845 area, then our 1st target for sale is $1830 and the final target is $1812.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2
USD/JPY: Heavy Bank Selling seenUSD/JPY: Heavy Bank Selling seen - POC above current price levels - Heavy Volume during last sell-off - Symmetrical triangle broken - Lower lows and lower highs We have to watch ONE risk factor and that is the FOMC Minutes tonight. However, the technical landscape is clear and USD/JPY is likey to fall further furing the next days. ✅ Check our bio for Wall Street Setups ✅ LIVE MyFxBook Performance ✅ Real deal Wall Street Trader 👉 Join our steam today: www.tradingview.com
Short
by WallStreetIntelligence
A Clear Path from Here - organized whipsaw comingIf looking at this chart at a glance hurts your brain, no worries I will summarize for you below (I need these lines personally to make swing trade decisions but the concept is pretty simple). I am just using "1-5" rather than "I -V" but it is a smaller wave nothing major. Enough to tell us map of near-term price action going into FOMC): Bearish wave 3 was in at yesterdays low (just slighly over 1.618 of wave 1-2), wave 2 retraced just over 50% of wave . Now we are on wave 4. - Expected wave 4 target is 422.21 (0.382 of wave 3). Expecting to see this today actually before starting wave 5 *** IF SPY breaks above 427.52 the bearish count is invalidated (> 0.5 of wave 3). Bulls recently saw this happen back in mid April when the downside pressure invalidated their count at attempted wave 4, if you believe in paybacks don't close out all your calls just yet. Probability does not favor this, however) - Wave 5 could drop to a variable range based on the retracement variability of EWT for wave 5 (I don't make these rules), however, my point estimate is SPY 395.76 (Range 390-400, max extended range 378-411 - you might think that is quite a range but these are the mathematical limits). Point prediction: 420s today, 390s going into FOMC, start of major rally post-FOMC that will begin larger Wave 5 to mid 500s by end of year (below 350 invalidates a 13-year bullish structure prematurely so I would not bank on that if you respect probability). The initial target after the wave 5 at apprx. 395 confirms larger wave 4 correction is completed will be SPY 440s, of course we will have to update accordingly based on the realized levels traded. Possible setup that could invalidate wave 4 is a bearish harmonic with D > 427.52. Based on previous FOMC they love to whipsaw and create escape velocity for the ever "unexpected" post-meeting rally, and with this structure they can whipsaw in a very organized manner. Best to all, Davy Jones
AMEX:SPY
by JerryManders
BITCOIN Daily TA : Bull or Bear ? Hi guys , we're back ! Well , as you can see the BEARS that shorted 46K to 48K range are reaching their most important goal (or even final target) (25K to 26K), because under old support Price in the $ 28,800 range There was a super massive pool of liquidity where they could close their own positions (converting a sell position into a buy one as soon as the short positions close and reduce the selling pressure in the market as well as increase the entry of buyers). There are currently two major scenarios ahead of the price , as this range is the last and most important PRZ , The second scenario is if the price can't consolidate above $ 32,800 and more sellers enter the market and this time look for larger targets such as 22K and 18.8K. Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 05.15.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
5
NZDUSD; Forex recap and the week aheadWhile NZDUSD continued its bearishness last week, it showed a strong move up on Wednesday to produce a Thursday high. However, it sold off very quickly as it continued its drop during Thursday's London and New York sessions. The pair mostly consolidated on Monday and Tuesday. NZ Unemployment Rate report was the only high impact news coming from New Zealand last week but failed to affect a substantial move, and the NZDUSD kept inside of Monday’s range. Last week, the big fundamental impact came from the US, which had FOMC on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payroll on Friday. The former event is what finally broke the pair out of its range, pushing up over 130 pips in just a couple of hours. As noted above, the pair quickly reversed this climb and eventually ended the week lower by 0.77%. The NZDUSD has now racked up a monthly loss of just over 7.00%. The next two worst performing pairs on the monthly time scale are the GBPUSD and the AUDUSD, down by 5.63% and 5.48%, respectively. In the chart, we see the weekly opening price, and last Thursday’s high noted. In the bottom window, we see the Stochastic indicator from TradingView. Traders who use this indicator will try to look for overbought or oversold areas in price - gauging whether a sell or buy is unfolding when the indicator is showing extremes on either end of the window. It could also be used for divergence as we see a few hours before FOMC news. The indicator did not make a lower low, while the NZD/USD moved slightly lower than the low made in the previous session. Next week’s high impact events Events relating to the NZDUSD this week are the numerous speeches by US Federal Reserve officials. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, speaks on Monday and Tuesday, likely to further dampen hopes for a 75 basis points hike from the Fed in June. The more hawkish officials such as John C. Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Christopher Waller (Board of Governors) take the mic after Bostic, potential building a case against Bostic’s and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovishness. Thrown in the mix this week is the US Inflation Rate YoY for April. This report is due on Wednesday (UTC+4) and is expected to fall closer to 8.0% from 8.5% in March.
by BlackBull_Markets
BTC: FOMC IMPACT ON THE PRICE OF BTC!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Welcome to this exclusive BTC analysis. FOMC has had a huge impact on the price of BTC since the start of 2022. Here's my view on how can it be affected this time. This event has the potential to change the course of risk markets (#BTC etc.) from bear to bull or to cause a capitulation event in risk, depending on the outcome. In the previous two meetings, the FED hiked its rates and that would bring a positive outcome for BTC. The March 16 FOMC meeting marked a local bottom for BTC and after the announcement, we have seen a relief rally. The market is currently in a similar environment to the one created during the lead-up to the March FOMC meeting. Markets are at critical levels, being ultimate support. US Dollar index, USDT Dominance is at important levels of resistance and BTC is at an important level of support from here we can expect a relief rally soon. After the last two meetings, the BTC price shows a 20-25% bounce so if the same thing happens this time we might see a relief rally up to $45k-$48k in the next two weeks. What do you think about this? Share your views in the comment section. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Thank You!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
6
Pound takes a tumble after BoE hikeThe British pound is fading badly on Thursday. GBP/USD has dropped a staggering 2.15% today and has fallen below the 1.24 line for the first time since July 2020. After the BoE decision, market focus has shifted to the elections in Northern Ireland later today. A Sinn Fein victory could weigh on the wobbly pound. The BoE raised interest rates for a fourth straight time since December, bringing the Official Bank Rate to 1.00%, its highest since 2009. Yet the market reception to the BoE move was decidedly chilly, as the pound has plunged almost 2% today. Why the sour reaction from the markets? The 0.25% was a modest move and it's questionable if it will have much impact on soaring inflation. In March, CPI rose to 7.0%, up from 6.2%, and the BoE has warned that inflation could surpass 10%. The modest rate hike passed by a vote of 6-3, surprising the markets which had expected an 8-1 vote. Two MPC members called for a 0.50% hike, which reveals a sharp split within the MPC. Governor Bailey admitted after the meeting that an uncertain economic outlook had led to a range of views in the MPC, and such a statement can hardly be expected to instill confidence amongst investors. The BoE cannot be blamed for not being aggressive - it is well into its rate-hike cycle and the policy summary noted that "some degree of further tightening in monetary policy may still be appropriate in the coming months". In addition, the BoE dropped the word "modest" to describe upcoming rate hikes. Yet the markets appeared to focus on the split vote and the warning from the BoE that the country could face a sharp economic downturn, and the thumbs-down response has sent the pound sharply lower. As expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates at its meeting by a half-point, the largest increase in 20 years. The Fed signalled that it will deliver additional half-point hikes in June and July, with Fed Chair Powell stating that the FOMC was not "actively considering" a 0.75% increase. The Fed is also implementing quantitative tightening with a reduction in the balance sheet. Starting in June, the Fed will sell USD 45 billion/mth in assets, which will rise to USD 95 billion/mth in September. In sharp contrast to the BoE's hike, the financial markets reacted positively, as investors believe that the Fed's rate hikes can curb inflation while ensuring a soft landing for the economy and avoiding a recession. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2612 and 1.2719 There is support at 1.2272 and 1.2179
by OANDA