GOLD LONG TO 2140We have seen a completion of Wave 3, completed with a retracement to the downside (Wave 4), giving Gold the liquidity to carry on its bullish movement. The final leg part of the bullish phase will be make Gold reach 2140-2160 this year before we see a downtrend start.
We have FOMC tonight which will bring a lot of volatility into the markets. Be careful with your positions and make sure to use risk management as manipulation is expected. Make sure to drop a like and let me know what you think!
FOMC
BITCOIN 30min TA : 05.04.22 (Update)You can see the amazing reaction of Bitcoin to its support level , and of course, it should be noted that the trading volume in the 37K range was very interesting , we have to see how the market will react with today's news .
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👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 05.04.2022
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Long Scalp SPX/SPY May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility , that the current expected movement is around 1.75 - 2% +-
Our top is going to be 4250
Our bot is going to be 4075
From the technical analysis point,
Volume was broken on the top side above 4150 and 4175 (yesterday and today POC volume) so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity.
At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 4155
I believe we can go towards 4200 minimum
From fundamental point of view
We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision.
This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible.
So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
Long Scalp BTC May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility, that the current expected movement is around 3.05% +-
Our top is going to be 40k
Our bot is going to be 37.5k
From the technical analysis point,
Volume was broken on the top side above 38000, so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity.
At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 38200.
I believe we can go towards 39k minimum
From fundamental point of view
We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision.
This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible.
So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
India VIXWith FOMC outcome due tonight, volatility is increasing sharply (pre-event uncertainty)
We are in the dark as to what FED will do tonight - so many possibilities, add to that statement - hawkish or dovish
25 bps market will rally
50 bps appears discounted
75 bps market will panic
Hence better to stay light
Above 21.75 the crucial resistance is at 2.80 if that breaches then be prepared for extreme moves (we have just seen the trailer in that case) all the way till 28
This would be mean large intra-day candles & gap openings. Avoid writing PE during such time unless well hedged. Also reduce derivative exposure its not worth it during such times.
Post event wait for VIX to start cooling down, trend direction will become clear by then
$NQ1! Daily Bear flagObvious buyers stepping in below old lows (march 14th)
Obvious short covering area.
The extra bounce and volatility this past week has been solely due to earnings beats IMO. Or else the flag would look a bit cleaner and more defined.
I think Q's can muster the follow through breakdown over the short term. Good luck and be careful around the fed decision tomorrow.
$ABMD Bear FlagDaily/weekly bear flag intact. Maybe watch for the local highs to be probed then reject.
Per vwaps I expect this to hit $255 sooner than later.
Large volume profile nodes around $300 so quite a range here.
Good luck, alerts are you're friend use them!
$LINC longStill showing incredible resilience in a bear market.
Daily/weekly flag remains intact at the time of writing.
Watching for a 52wk high breakout and rejection shortly after be nimble on the breakout if you wish to play it.
Holding above many many vwaps of all lengths of time/volume.
Serious amount of liquidity above $265s OBV still moving up and institutional buyers keep stepping in here.
Stop below $285.
$TSLA ShortBarring a tech fueled melt up and covering tomorrow after FOMC decision (14:00) I spy a daily bear flag on an incredibly resilient symbol and everyone's favorite Billionaire.
Q's showing some weakness overnight session, if lower in the morning expect a short squeeze at open to get shorts off sides again and then a tank shortly after the cash open.
There is obvious buyers/covering happening at these levels ($NQs 12000 pocket) But nothing in the way of a meltdown should the market gods not enjoy the fed speak tomorrow.
$TSLA $946 is a ceiling to watch IMO. Be careful especially around the meeting in the afternoon. A move down to the low $800s is very possible over the next few days as it's actually showing some weakness.
GOLD day ahead of FOMC meetingGOLD is in downtrend on the daily chart and intraday, but it's looking too extended to go short. Ideas on where to start looking for a short entry as well as short targets are presented in the video.
This is not trade or investment advice, this is just me clarifying my own analysis in a video.
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US dollar and DXYThe US dollar still maintains some strength after the DXY recorded the last peak at 103.78, before the results of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) were released today.
Also this week, the US dollar is awaiting many important indicators that affect its trading, starting from tomorrow, Wednesday
The 1.4% decline in first-quarter GDP released last week may catch the eye of the FOMC with high inflation readings and waning positivity labor market data support prospects for a follow-up rate hike
104 to 104.70 a very possible target in the coming period and we may see more
FOMC Meeting: What to expect Let's cover the question everyone is asking and no one is answering.
"What should we expect from the FOMC meeting?"
Well, let me tell you....
The consensus floating around from the MSM is that we could raise 50 basis points. But other sources say 25 and yet other sources say 75. But the over-arching consensus is 50.
No "prepare for absolute destruction" warnings have been issued, YET. The past FOMC meeting and the past 2 CPI meetings had these warnings issued by officials prior to the release, saying "I know you were expecting bad, but expect worse". I will be watching for those warnings tomorrow as tomorrow officially commences the meeting.
But in terms of how will this affect the market?
I looked back, tried to make sense out of rate hikes and the stock market and I actually couldn't. I tried to answer this question with statistics. Its unanswerable. It truly is. I am sorry, I know, your stats day trader has failed you :(. But its kind of similar situation between earnings releases and stock behaviour. It doesn't really make sense!
But let me show you what I found in the data, but let me show you from a more qualitative perspective through the chart itself to help you make sense of it:
1994 - 2010
Between 1994 and 2010 there were 3 notable rate hikes.
The % change is displayed in the red box (i.e. the % increase).
We see that 1994 had about a 10% sell of.
2004 and 2010 had initial sell offs, followed by a plateau for the remainder of the year and then a bull run towards the end of the year which actually brought the stock up to positive growth and return.
2015 - 2016
I see the most parallels currently with 2015.
At the time, 2015 marked historic rate hikes for SPY at +233% change.
This led to a 15% sell off, followed by stagnation, followed by a bull run at the end of the year.
In 2016, there was a sell-off at the beginning of the year, followed by sustained growth of roughly 25%.
However, in 2016, there was also an increase of +165%, but the stock market managed to continue to see growth.
Currently
Records made on SPY here.
So far we are sitting at roughly a 15% sell off from beginning of year highs (Which happen to also be ATHs).
So far, we are on track with 2015.
So, is it possible that we stagnate and then recover end of year?
Yes! It is actually.
Am I advocating that this will happen?
I am not sure.
Many will say, "absolutely" and others will say "no way!"
I don't know, I can't know, and I doubt anyone knows. I am not going to lie and bet my credibility on this, because I don't know.
SPY has been normalizing just fine. We have almost completed a regression to the mean. If SPY decided to be bullish suddenly, then, mathematically its acceptable. Truly, it is acceptable.
Do I think it will happen?
I personally don't. But I personally don't know what to expect because these are really weird and unique times.
Also, we had an historic rate hikes last FOMC meeting, SPY sold off dramatically, then IMMEDIATELY reclaimed its high and beyond. Like it was nothing! Don't forget that. Really, this is still fresh in my mind. It was insane! IT WAS INSANE!
Let me just refresh your memory with the March 16th release:
Insane.
Either way, its a hard call. There is no rhyme or reason to how the stock market reacts to rate hikes. Perhaps we enter a place of stagnation and just chill out for some time. Perhaps we drop down into the 350s. I don't know. But this is why I am full fledge day trader in this market (whereas in 2021 I did both swing and day). Because I can admit I don't have any idea what is going on, and I only need to know my conditionals, my probabilities and my bullish and bearish breaks to play intra-day. So far my time series models have been holding out more long term, but we are at that pivotal junction in time where, once we regress to the mean, the question is, do we start entering bear market territory? Which is a fall below the mean and negative growth. I guess time will tell.
As of right now, SPY can fall down to about 380s and still not be in negative growth. We would still be trading well within a normal predicted range. Albeit, lower normal, but right now SPY is on the extreme higher end of normal, so equally acceptable.
A drop below 380 would be considered negative growth, from a math/stats point of view.
I know people are saying "a break of 400 and its a bear market, its going to drop hard, etc." I don't personally see it that way because SPY would still be trading at an expected rate of growth until it passes below 370 - 380 range. But again, I am not an economist or finance guy. Just a statistics person.
What about tomorrow?
So, I think we need a bounce.
SPY is trading roughly -1.66 SDs away from its mean. I expect this to return to some normalcy to give it room to sell off more if it so chooses, or to gap up more.
As it stands right now, from math/technical side, SPY is not poised to sell off very well. Its still very much oversold. I would like to see some more selling, so I would like to see a bit more of a bonce to better position SPY to achieve this. As of right now, I would NOT bet on a dramatic sell off with FOMC results, because its just so oversold. If we get a bit of a bounce today, I would feel more confident about a sell off.
An ideal close price for SPY is truly at least 418 . This would bring SPY up to about -1.45 SDs away from its mean. IDEAL situation is 425 which will bring it to about -1 away from its mean.
My calculated bullish break from tomorrow is 418. I would like to see SPY break over that. It seems promising that we may even see SPY gap up tomorrow morning. that would be great! If we gap up over 418, I would be comfortable longing this. (I did long it today actually from 406, but sold before market closed).
That's it! Another lengthy and wordy post.
SIDE NOTE:
I did a tutorial on calculating probability with stocks. I actually have another tutorial idea, how to calculate bounce prices like I just did in this post (i.e. when the stock is oversold or overbought, how to calculate a realistic target price based on how far away from its mean it is). If this is something that is of interest to you, let me know!
Trade safe everyone!
Euro struggles at 5-year lowsEUR/USD suffered a dismal week, plunging 2.33%. The euro broke below the 1.05 line on Thursday but has managed to recover.
The ECB doesn't meet until June, but policy makers will be closely monitoring eurozone inflation, which continues to climb. It was only a few months ago that ECB President Lagarde was dismissive about rising inflation, saying that it was a transient development (readers will recall the exact same stance from Fed Chair Powell). We certainly won't be hearing the 'T" word anymore with regard to eurozone inflation, which hit a massive 7.5% in April. The ECB may not stay in sync with the pace of tightening by the Fed and other major central banks, but the ECB is signalling that the issue is not whether to hike, but when and by how much. There are hawkish voices within the ECB calling for a June hike, but September could be the month to circle in the calendar, which will give policy makers additional data to review before making any moves.
In the case of the Fed, tighter rates are a given, with spiralling inflation, a tight labor market and robust growth. It's a trickier scenario for the ECB, as eurozone growth has not been as strong and the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions have dampened economic growth. There are concerns about stagflation, and these risks will rise as the ECB raises rates. We can expect the ECB to tighten policy in the coming months, but at a much slower pace than the Fed.
The FOMC meets on Wednesday and a half-point hike from the Fed is practically a done deal. This will be a significant move, as the Fed hasn't delivered such a large rate increase in 20 years. The Fed has hinted at additional half-point rates in June and July, and some analysts are even predicting super-supersize hikes of 0.75%, which hasn't happened since 1994. The Fed is in full throttle trying to catch up to the inflation curve, and this widening of the US/Europe rate differential could push the euro to 1.03 and perhaps even to parity in the coming months.
There is resistance at 1.0612 and 1.0699
1.0408 is providing support, followed by 1.0321
Bitcoin Pivotal Week AheadBTC has followed a descending parallel channel since Nov 2021 ATH shedding >52% in late Jan to.$32.9k. Since the low, BTC rallied to a local high of $48k in late March before resuming the gradual mark-down. Currently sitting >40% from ATH @ $38.8k.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart currently above 100 EMA while the 20 EMA has crossed below the 50.
Previous FOMC in early March following 25 bps hike, the market rallies in the face of a "hawkish sounding" Federal Reserve... casting doubt on the seriousness of reining in rampant inflation that's achieved highest levels in >40 years w/ no sign of slowing.
Critical juncture in price action, as BTC will likely put in a red daily candle Monday 5/2 and look for direction from the broader markets over May 3rd & 4th.
Potential for market upswing following the Fed's decisions is possible and would fall in line with March market response to Fed's seemingly hollow words.
The more like scenario is market realization that inflation is problematic and Fed's efforts to reduce central bank balance sheets via quantitative tightening has teeth and will continue the gradual market corrections we've seen in Q1.
Macro factors are indicating headwinds continue as GDP in Q1 was down, labor remains incredibly tight, prices remain unsustainably high.
Bitcoin likely to creep down to $35k range as the market considers Fed actions and decides on a direction.