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FOMC

USD/JPY steady as Japanese PMIs mixedThe Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.70, down 0.08% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s PMIs for April were a mixed bag and the yen didn’t show much reaction. Services PMI dipped to 53.6, down from 54.3 in March and just shy of the forecast of 53.8. This was the smallest growth in services since February. Manufacturing PMI showed improvement and rose to 50.5, up from 49.6 in March and above the market estimate of 49.7. This was the first growth since May 2023 as manufacturing has been in a prolonged slump. The 50 level separates contraction from growth. The Japanese economy is showing signs of improving after first-quarter GDP declined. Inflation has been easing, which could hamper the ability of the Bank of Japan to increase rates without reigniting deflation. With inflation falling around the globe, major central banks have been under pressure to lower interest rates. The central banks remain cautious, however, and the Fed minutes indicated that there was a discussion to raise rates at the May 1st meeting. Other central banks are also unclear about their rate path – the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand held rates at their most recent meetings but also considered hiking rates. The FOMC minutes noted that policy makers are not confident about lowering rates at this stage and want to see more evidence that inflation will continue to drop and remain sustainable around the 2% target. This message is consistent with what we have been hearing from a host of Fed members, although the markets have priced in a September rate cut. USD/JPY tested support at 156.02 earlier. Below, there is support at 156.33 157.07 and 157.32 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
DXY ( US DOLLAR Index ) Analysis 19/05/24Scenario 01 : if the Federal Reserve raise interest rates : Probability of this to happend is lower in my opinion but could happend somehow 1. *Dixie (USD Index):* Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of the dollar strengthens. This is because higher interest rates attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar. So, the Dixie would likely see an increase in value. 2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* If interest rates rise, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, would likely see an uptick as well. Again, this is due to increased demand for the dollar from foreign investors seeking higher returns. Scenario 02 : if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates the same: 1. *Dixie (USD Index):* If interest rates remain unchanged, the dollar's value might stay relatively stable. Without a change in interest rates to attract or deter investment, the Dixie may not experience significant fluctuations. 2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* Similarly, the U.S. Dollar Index could remain steady if interest rates are unchanged. It might experience some minor movements based on other economic factors, but overall, it's likely to maintain its current level. Scenario 03 : if the Federal Reserve Cut / Lower interest rates: (Probability is High because of the inflation is high and Jerome Mentioned he might Cut rates in the next meeting) 1. *Dixie (USD Index):* Lowering interest rates usually leads to a decrease in the value of the dollar. This is because lower rates make it less attractive for foreign investors to hold onto dollars, as they can find higher returns elsewhere. So, the Dixie might depreciate. 2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* A cut in interest rates could lead to a decline in the U.S. Dollar Index as well. Lower rates could weaken the dollar's value relative to other currencies, causing the index to decrease. In summary, changes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve can have significant impacts on both the Dixie and the U.S. Dollar Index, influencing their values in the foreign exchange market.
TVC:DXY
by TraderFa9ir
⭐️ XAU/USD : NFP's effects on $GOLD (IMPORTANT ANALYSIS)Upon reviewing gold in the weekly timeframe, we observe that the price is trading around $2298. If the NFP data is announced to be higher than the forecasted rate, it will strengthen the dollar index and consequently cause a significant drop in gold prices! Should this occur and gold stabilizes below $2300, we can expect a fall in gold prices to lower levels such as (in order) $2268, $2243, $2229, and $2222. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCThe KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve had an extremely decent week so far, together with the long that was presented to us earlier in the session today. As it stands, we’re in the 4H order region, which is why price is attempting the intra-day levels of support and resistance, while they temporarily accumulate orders. This now gives us support 2295-90, which if supported on the spike, could give the move upside into the region highlighted on the chart. It’s this level that needs to be monitored closely and if the set up allows with a clean resistance, a move downside breaking the 2300 level again could be available. With events like this, there is usually a flip and it’s unexpected. So expect the market to spike either way collecting liquidity. We would also say, the trade usually comes after the event, so it’s best to wait for them to move the market to where they want, then look for a clean set up. Please note, these are key levels, if broken above, we can correct the move from yesterday and end up closer to 2390 than 2255 end of the week. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
13
Levels discussed on 2nd May Livestream2nd May DXY: Consolidate along 105.50, Look for price to break 105.50, trade down to 105.30. NZDUSD: Buy 0.5960 SL 20 TP 50 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6590 SL 25 TP 65 USDJPY: Sell 154.80 SL 50 TP 180 GBPUSD: Buy 1.2570 SL 40 TP 80 EURUSD: Watch the resistance level Buy 1.0750 SL 30 TP 70 or Sell 1.0715 SL 30 TP 65 USDCHF: Sell 0.9130 SL 20 TP 75 USDCAD: At the support level, Sell 1.3695 SL 20 TP 60 or Buy 1.3730 SL 25 TP 50 Gold: Needs to break 2300 to trade down to 2282
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
1
MAY 1ST 2024 US30 FOMC Trade Idea/LiveTrade I approached the charts fresh out of the shower. I got in at 9:20 AM NY Time and got to the computer around 9:40 AM NY time. But anyway, I saw on the weekly that we were slowly rejecting lows. So, that means if I saw either a shift in structure or a change in the state of delivery, aka a break above an OB that has taken liquidity to go higher on the 4H or 1H, then price could slightly be trading back higher just to raid above a high, then proceed lower. But in order for me to keep that bias, I must see if a daily key level was being respected and if price has recently raided a low while also rebalancing within an FVG. If so, then price is more likely bullish. And that's exactly what happened.
FX:US30Long
by Jblavishfx
Why has the US dollar sunk in the lead up to the FOMC decision? Why has the US dollar sunk in the lead up to the FOMC decision? Bloomberg Economics says “We expect Powell to make a hawkish pivot” regarding the FOMC’s decision this Wednesday. Expectations for rate reductions have been pushed further into 2024. So, why is the US dollar underperforming to start this week? And does this open up an even more attractive entry point to a long dollar position? One reason dragging the USD down could be the possible Japanese government intervention as Japanese banks have been reportedly dumping US dollars. The Japanese yen rebounded about 1.4% to 156.000 per greenback after weakening to as low as 160.000 earlier in the session Another reason could be the prevailing optimism surrounding peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Cairo, which has invigorated appetite for riskier assets, like the NZD/USD which is up 0.70% as of writing. In Australia, robust inflation figures have surpassed expectations, fueling speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia may defer any interest rate cuts in the near term. The AUD/USD is up 0.55% as of writing. Across the Atlantic, the United Kingdom's Chief Economist Huw Pill has pointed to recent economic data that might bring the prospect of a rate cut closer, although he remains guarded in his assessment, suggesting that such a move may still be some distance away.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? The JPY weakened below 158.200 against the dollar. It is the first time since May 1990 we have seen this exchange rate for the USD/JPY. The reason is being attributes to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged last Friday. With the USD/JPY comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a break above 158.500 might propel it towards 160.000. Market attention remains fixed on whether Japanese authorities will intervene in currency markets to stem the yen's decline. Other than this, short-term USD/JPY movements may depend on this week's US and Japanese economic data. In Japan, focus lies on April's consumer confidence, unemployment rate, retail sales, and industrial production, along with insights from the BoJ's meeting minutes. better-than-expected figures could boost demand for the Japanese yen. However, most eyes will be on the US Fed's upcoming decision this week, with expectations for maintaining record-level borrowing costs, potentially pushing the yen further down. The Fed decision will be followed by the non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a rise of 210K jobs in April, though slower than March's 303K. Better-than-expected figures here could affect investor outlooks on a September Fed rate adjustment, and giving the USD/JPY more reason to target the 160.000 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
Must-know events for the trading week Must-know events for the trading week The week ahead in the US will be marked by significant events, including the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and March inflation data. Alongside the meeting minutes, investors will continue to analyze speeches from various Fed officials: Recent remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari revealed that he had anticipated two interest rate cuts this year. However, he noted that if inflation remains sluggish, no cuts may be necessary. This outcome would really surprise the market, which is mostly still expecting three cuts, starting in June. Headline inflation is expected to rise for a second consecutive period to 3.4%, while the core rate is projected to decline to 3.7%, reaching its lowest level since April 2021. In Europe, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank's meeting, where current interest rates are anticipated to be maintained. The likelihood of future rate cuts will be assessed by the market at the same time. In Japan, investors will be monitoring potential intervention actions from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be speaking during the week regarding the central bank's future steps. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. The RBNZ's latest forecast from February suggests that the OCR will remain steady until early to mid-2025, despite expressing increased confidence based on recent data.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
2
FOMC FORWARD GUIDANCE SINCE 2018 w/FED SPEAKERS w/SPX The chart provided visually represents the forward guidance issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alongside the performance of various key economic indicators and market indices. The FOMC forward guidance serves as a crucial tool for signaling the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and future intentions, thereby influencing market expectations and economic behavior. By examining the interplay between FOMC forward guidance and these key economic indicators, investors, policymakers, and analysts can gain insights into the likely direction of monetary policy and its potential impact on financial markets and the broader economy. I have also included comments from various FOMC speakers to better form a picture of the past.
SP:SPX
by koyking
Interest Rate Cuts 3 Times This Year May Not Happen - Here's WhyMany interpreted from the latest FOMC meeting that the Fed is going to have three rate cuts this year, but Jerome Powell did not say that. Let me quote directly from his transcript: “If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of this year” And he added: “These projections are not a committee decision or plan” In today’s tutorial we will discover why so many of us got it wrong in what he is trying to tell us. And who are these participants? 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by konhow
2
The FOMC meeting, rising wedge, and VIX dropYesterday’s FOMC meeting ended as widely anticipated, with no change to monetary policy. During the press conference, the FED’s chairman reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control and outlined a strong economy and tight labor market. Jerome Powell also described inflation as being on a downward trajectory and explained the need to stay attentive to inflation rates. In addition to that, he acknowledged the emergence of some negative effects of high interest rates on the economy. Markets reacted positively to Jerome Powell’s statements and rallied across the board. The SPX broke above $5,200 and established a new all-time high at $5,226. Simultaneously, the VIX experienced a significant drop that led to the distortion of its broadening structure on the daily chart. While the SPX remains over-extended above the upward-sloping channel, this drop could foreshadow the SPX’s move slightly higher, in the area between $5,300 and $5,350. Particular things to watch out for in the following days include the next developments with the VIX, the rejection/success of RSI breaking above 70 points (on the daily time frame), the support at $5,180, and the pattern resembling a rising wedge (on the 4-hour time frame). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the VIX’s daily graph. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower trendline, distorting the structure with higher peaks and higher troughs. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the 4-hour chart of the SPX. Yellow dashed lines highlight the pattern resembling a rising wedge formation. Here are some of the most important statements from Jerome Powell’s speech: “Inflation has eased substantially while the labor market has remained strong, and that is very good news. But inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. We are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.” “Our restrictive stance of monetary policy has been putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. As labor market tightness has eased and progress on inflation has continued, the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.” “Activity in the housing sector was subdued over the past year, largely reflecting high mortgage rates. High interest rates also appear to have weighed on business fixed investment. In our Summary of Economic Projections, Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to slow from last year’s pace, with a median projection of 2.1 percent this year and 2 percent over the next two years.” “Over the past three months, payroll job gains averaged 265 thousand jobs per month. The unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, at 3.9 percent. Strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers, reflecting increases in participation among individuals aged 25 to 54 years and a continued strong pace of immigration” “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. The economic outlook is uncertain, however, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer, if appropriate.” “We know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we have seen on inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2 percent.” “ If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of this year, 3.9 percent at the end of 2025, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2026—still above the median longer-term funds rate.” “Turning to our balance sheet, our securities holdings have declined by nearly $1.5 trillion since the Committee began reducing our portfolio.” Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXLong
by Tradersweekly