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Charting the Trade: USDCAD and the Downtrend DynamicsGreetings Traders, As we anticipate the upcoming week, our attention is firmly on USDCAD, where we are actively assessing a potential selling opportunity around the 1.32600 zone. Engaged in a downtrend, USDCAD demonstrates a sustained downward trajectory. Concurrently, the currency pair is in a correction phase, steadily converging towards the trend at the pivotal 1.32600 resistance area. This numerical level bears significance as both a historical resistance point and a crucial juncture where the correction may intersect with substantial market forces. Taking a broader economic perspective, let's examine the progression of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, providing insights into the potential market dynamics. The most recent data, dated January 25, 2023, indicates an actual inflation rate of 1.9%, surpassing the forecast of 1.6% and the previous 1.8%. This data points to a pattern of inflation fluctuation over recent quarters. Such variations can potentially influence the sentiment of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the forthcoming meeting, hinting at potential adjustments in their approach. Understanding these nuances is crucial for traders, as it suggests the possibility of a dovish USD outlook, impacting currency pairs like USDCAD. In navigating the opportunities within the USDCAD chart, traders should remain vigilant, aligning their decisions with the evolving economic landscape. The anticipation of a potential dovish sentiment from the FOMC meeting underscores the importance of a strategic approach to trading in the coming period. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
2
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCKOG REPORT – FOMC: This is our view for FOMC tomorrow, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. There is a huge possibility this FOMC is already priced in, so we may not see too much movement until the press conference which will be held 30mins after the release. We have a few levels in mind where we will be looking for a reaction in price, however, we would ideally like to wait until tomorrow to see where the daily closes before getting in. Otherwise, it will be a quick scalp on the retracement or pullback of the move. One thing we need to keep in mind is the NFP movement and where the began the sharp decline and left a void. The structure entails a move up at some point into that 2030-35 region which is the level to watch as well as a target level for any potential long trades. That’s what we will potentially be looking for, and IF we get there, we see a RIP, we’ll be looking to trade this back down for lower pricing. On the flip, if they take this down, we’re too low to attempt shorting it with the added risk of the void above, so we’ll be looking at the lower level for a RIP, a confirmed set up, and then look to carry the price upside into the order regions highlighted. Fortunately, we have our trusted guide (Excalibur) which we will be monitoring closely for activations in the given direction of our plans. Levels to watch: Support – 1978 / 1969 / 1952 Resistance – 1993 / 2006 / 2015 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMCFOMC – KOG Report: This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. On Sunday’s KOG Report we said the report would only be applicable for the first half of the week due to FOMC today. We did well with this so will stick with some of the levels from the report for today. We’re going to keep this FOMC Report short this time as we’re not likely to be trading again until tomorrow. For those who are keen to get involved, we’ve highlighted the key levels to look for a reaction in price. The daily is showing a potential swing where a bullish move here can take it up towards testing the 2000 level and slightly above. For that reason, we’ve given the level on the break up towards 2005-8 with the initial hurdle being the 1980-85 level. On the flip, 1975-80 is another level to keep an eye on. We’re not publishing the daily bias today, but this was yesterdays bearish below level with a rejection around here potentially leading to price first attacking the 1945 region and below the 1930-35 order region which was our initial target for the short trades. Illustrated on the chart is the potential path, obviously with the swings, spikes and volatility expected please take it as a guide. We’ll only be looking for extreme levels in Camelot and that, as we said above is probably going to be in the sessions ahead. If you’re new to trading, the trade will come after the event. Please try not to get involved in the pre-event price action, it’s going to chop you in the range before they make the move. Best practice is to come back to the markets tomorrow and look for a clean set up. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/5/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2023 - PR High: 15351.00 - PR Low: 15341.25 - NZ Spread: 21.75 Expected heavy volume at session open - Traders anxious to get back after long weekend - Ranging into London session, inside NZ - Front running pivot high from June 16 Fed kicking off the short week 14:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Weekend Gap: +0.09% (closed) - Session Open ATR: 219.98 - Volume: 57K - Open Int: 243K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -8.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 15533 - Mid: 15247 - Short: 14675 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQU2023
by mv3trader5
GBPUSD I FOMC trading plan and levels to watch Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** GBPUSD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
by BKTradingAcademy
2
Analyzing the Impact of FOMC Meetings on Stock PricesAs a stock trader, it's important to pay attention to major events that can impact the market, such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. These meetings can have a significant impact on stock prices, and understanding their historical trends can help you make informed trading decisions. In preparation for the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 3, 2023, we've analyzed the highs from each FOMC meeting since 2021. We've compiled this data into a timeline that shows the market's reaction to these meetings, with vertical lines indicating market open and close. As you can see from the image below, the majority of market movers occur in the after-hours trading following the FOMC meeting. This can be attributed to the fact that traders are reacting to the decisions made by the committee and adjusting their positions accordingly. We've also calculated the percentage change from the original opening line to the high point for each meeting, with the highest mover being 6.14% and the lowest being 4.25%. These results were found at market close on Thursday following the FOMC meeting. It's worth noting that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and the market can be unpredictable. However, analyzing historical trends can be a useful tool for stock traders who want to be prepared for potential market movements. In conclusion, the FOMC meeting on May 3, 2023, is likely to have an impact on the stock market. By understanding historical trends and analyzing market data, traders can be better equipped to make informed trading decisions. We hope that this analysis has provided some useful insights and helps you navigate the market with confidence. I hope that this analysis of previous FOMC meetings and their impact on the stock market will be helpful to anyone who is curious or considering trading tomorrow. However, we want to emphasize the importance of doing your own due diligence and research before making any trading decisions. The FOMC meetings can be highly unpredictable, and it's essential to trade smart and cautiously. As our analysis shows, the majority of market movement following the FOMC meetings tends to occur in the after-hours trading, making it even more crucial to be cautious. Therefore, it's crucial to stay informed, keep an eye on market trends, and use historical trends as a guide while making informed trading decisions. In conclusion, I hope this analysis provides helpful insights for traders and investors, but remember to exer cise caution and always be mindful of the risks involved in trading. Happy trading!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by jacobwilson007
What can we expect for Bitcoin this FOMC meeting?As the FOMC meeting is coming up in just a few hours Bitcoin is relatively not moving that much. What can we expect Bitcoin to do? As we are closing down the triangle I am expecting this to break during the meeting as volume will start to kick in. We have 2 clear scenarios • We will break up and are going to 21k • We will break down and are going to 19,750k Stay away from trading leverage as we can expect an fake-out up or down!! Trade safe
by Mynameisnotrelevant
BTC - What about after the Dump?I've been doing a lot of number crunching, specifically around Fibonacci numbers and Harmonics. There is a possibility we get a Bullish crab at 16.3k with a retracement to 18,700-19,400. I will be Shorting this area after TP'ing Short at 16.3k. The next target to close FOMC pump Short would be between 15.5k-15k. Not sure which. But i'm certain it's one of these two. The less likely scenario if these are broken is 13k . But that is less likely. I think a lot of people are expecting really low (I see people shouting 10k in chat) and they aren't expecting a local bottom at 15k. As is always we get some kind of Relief Rally after FOMC event has happened. I assume this will be the push towards the mid 19's. I am ready to SHORT this area - it will be fairly simple! All I have to do is wait until volume dies after FOMC pump. Take Profit target 15.5k. The final trade in this next 3 weeks will be LONG 15.5k and 15k, with a take Profit target of around 22k. The reason why it will dump again after FOMC rally... is it because it always does! It happened last time.. it dumped 32k-> 20k then rallied to 22.5k then dropped to 17.6k. Good luck!
by reiiss7
5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/4/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2022 - PR High: 13134.50 - PR Low: 13106.00 - NZ Spread: 63.50 Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Gap: = N/A - Session Open ATR: 397 - Volume: 16k - Open Int: 224k - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -21.75% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 14675 - Mid: 13500 - Short: 12390 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQM2022
by mv3trader5
🔥 Bitcoin & The Federal Funds Rate: An Easy ExplanationEver since the FED has been talking about interest rates, I see questions popping up on social media where investors ask why the federal funds rate (also known as the FED interest rate) is so important for the stock and crypto markets. With this post I'd like to write an easy understandable explanation on what the FED funds rate is and why it is important. What is the FED funds rate? The FED funds rate is the interest rate set by the FOMC (the committee of the FED). This interest rate targets the rate at which commercial banks in the USA can lend and borrow excess money to each other. Higher rates means it's more expensive to borrow money for banks, lower rates make it cheaper. Why is it so important? The FOMC changes the rate in order to control inflation. Higher rates reduce the money supply because money is more expensive to get (borrow), whilst lower rates increase the money supply because it encourages spending. The latter has happened during the 2008 Financial crisis and the more recent Corona crisis. Encouraging people to spend money generally helps the economy. Rule of thumb: if the economy is in good shape, higher interest rates are needed to control inflation. If the economy is in bad shape, lower interest rates will encourage people to spend and can help turn things around. Should I be afraid of it? Generally, no. As seen on the BTC chart above, the only time that the FED has increased the rates it did not have a bearish effect on BTC. However, this was done during a period of lower inflation than we currently have. To combat the current inflation rates, the FED needs to increase the rate at a much faster and higher rate than what we have seen in the past 30 years. During the 1980's the interest rate was set to 20% in order to combat strong inflation, I'd argue the FED has to do that as well if they don't raise the raids much faster this year. The imposed rate hikes of 0.25% every meeting are not enough to reduce the 10% year-over-year inflation. In case the FED decides to raise the rates with big steps (>1% per meeting), this can definitely have a huge impact on the stock- and crypto-markets. It will become much more expensive for banks to borrow (and invest) money since money will become more scarce. There's no immediate danger for the markets. However, if inflation spirals out of control because the FED decides not to act (keep the rates low), they'd have to increase the rates much higher and quicker than everyone anticipates, which will trigger a big sell-off in the markets. In my view, this will be the start of the next crypto bear-market. The FED interest rates are most definitely an interesting, but also difficult topic. If you think that I've skipped an important part, please share your knowledge in the comment section. The more people know about it, the better.
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
88
S&P 500 - Futures by CryptoTradersWWThe S&P 500 futures have been a leading indication for BTC price direction since this morning. The stock market has gained strength over the last two days, with prices currently nearing the top of the range. If we witness a breakout above, it's possible that this will spill over into the crypto market. Today is also the FOMC Fed meeting, which is expected to hike interest rates. Historically, this has resulted in stock market volatility, which could lead to instability in the crypto market. <----------------------------> ☑️ Follow, Comment & Like ☑️ Create a civil and healty discuss in the comments and share with me your thoughts Thanks and Happy Trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CryptoTradersWW
Gold - Upcoming Fed Meeting and Negative Yield InsuranceAs my last forecast has shown, gold has had quite a lovely run up in light of the rate cut delivered from Jay Powell Gold soared towards $1,600/ ounce and stopped just shy at $1,570/ ounce. With the September FOMC decision looming the question is what the yellow metal will do next? A rate cut is all but certain, with a 25bp cut baked in at this point, a 50bp cut is possible but the chances are lower (not impossible mind you). This rate cut is likely to do two things - Push bond prices higher and yields lower (I will also elaborate on a potential play on bonds ) - Drive gold up as bond yields creep closer to zero (Europe is already at zero and the US is the last major bastion of 'safety') The impact on silver is more uncertain, as rates are also a measure of productivity in general and silver is primarily an industrial metal, long-term silver looks good, but bear in mind it does not respond the same as gold. The gold price near-term is impossible to predict, but lower rates and near zero yielding bonds means only one thing...higher gold prices. We could see some consolidation going into the FOMC meeting, at which point gold would be poised to make another leg up (although on the longer time-frames gold is a little overextended) or we could see a short lived selloff. In any case, if you have yet to position yourself for a negative yielding world, best to do so now
COMEX:GC1!
by Profit_Link
DXY: Tuesday Week11Hi Guys, the scenario hasn't changed much since my last post. DXY still looking bearish into mid week11. FOMC meeting due tomorrow. 50SMA keeps pushing despite divergence with RSI. A,B and C are lower lows. RSI is making higher lows compared to price. If the index re-climbs above 1000SMA and crosses the 50SMA for the upside at the same time, DXY may commence correcting week10 fall. RSI still below 50 though and if bearish momentum picks up next stop could be week8 low. IMHO in the 4H chart below options may be: A) a run towards 50SMA or B) a run towards 1000SMA Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:DXY
by cozzamara