Fomo
Exitpump in progress at important resistance, blowoff phaseThe grand exchanges exit pump is upon us. Talked about this in nov-dec '17 on tg and discord that this possibility was very present of how they did this in the past (especially with tethers at almost instantaneous access) and that sentiment can switch on a dime's notice, got the same feeling after the mysterious 100m buyer (i.e. exchanges in cahoot) as years gox and china fud manipulation, then tether/finex investigations went public memories and feelings of mtgox are reliving well now for exit pump in making. Big sells already happened at coinbase with almost no vol +40% up since (same other fiat exchanges, pumping on EMPTY books). No bid liquidity once this monster comes back down. Greedy people means they will be last to exit and we all know how that will look like. Stairs up, elevator down can be related to this human greed emotion. But in the end, not much retail is in anyway, paint tapers do w/e they want, I don't care about illusions and interpretations of fakenews telling you why this and that, always after the fact without any disclosure of personal positions.
Tbh, I would love to have seen finex to 33k while others at 3.3k, but it seems they still are "the market", like gox was "the market" back then.
Yeah, looks legit tether trading at $1.05 while at another place below a $1. Tether should be <= $0.74 by any common sense for the 26% unbacked reserves... All natural, right? The only natural thing coming is the selloff. Manipulation always happens first upwards and is always preferably over going down, because % exceeds the same price delta, that's why most of those exchanges employ the retarded "hodl" meme. If hodl, then please close your exchanges, we don't need you for hodl, I can buy p2p or from some website as well and hodl in my own wallet, thank you very much.
imgur.com
With this idea, I wanna see how this plays out in the months that follow this with all the recent events, the > 99% of bulls (including permabears that flipped to bulls at important resistance), since I'm used to clear all drawings after a while to start from scratch. The previous idea is active and this is a supplement to that and a chart from last year with the wyckoff distribution schematic 2.
Btw, for all bulltards thinking I'm a permabear, you're dead wrong. I bought the entire lower TR back in nov-dec (scalped 4.8k, 4.2k; held 3.2-3.3k), lots of people can confirm on tg and discord as I was one of the only ones insisting to buy and if goes lower buy more, despite everyone calling for lower lows. Nice try though, I'm getting used to this that people flip the script and the worst thing to do is lying to yourself. I will be a bull when the time is there. I don't wanna end up as bullsteak for what's coming.
Can it go higher? Absolutely, can even go to 8k or 13k, sure. Am I prepared for that? Yes, read previous idea how I'm playing this. Can -3k candle come? Absolutely, happened before a lot of times as well. Just use common sense and don't buy when it's pumped 100% with no retrace at a major confluence of resistance, that doesn't make any sense.
Imho, now is the time to #exitallcrypto and enjoy the spring/summer of the money you made. Imagine not taking profits at 100%, talking about greed.
BTC Update! My thoughts on Fidelity BTC trading opening!Yesterdays chart we were watching to see if BTC was going to consolidate or if it was just a daily bull flag. Consolidation I questioned because the 4 hour chart was still holding its lows in tact making me hesitant to believe the daily chart would begin consolidation over it just being a bull flag to continuation.
We got confirmation last night on the bull flag and ran pretty much right into the start of my resistance zone I highlighted a couple weeks ago. I would personally expect us to struggle here for several weeks under normal conditions or just reject hard from resistance zone. But, this is crypto and things aren't exactly normal.
So besides technical analysis, you must keep up with fundamentals, news/media, FUD/FOMO news, etc.
So Fidelity announced yesterday or the day before it would be offering BTC trading "in a few weeks" I believe is how they worded it.
So I've been thinking of how the market is most likely to react to this information as the actual trading opens in a few weeks.
Key points to this - Fidelity is opening this trading to institutional/pro investors, NOT retail investors. We will eventually have a KNOWN date to when this trading will begin.
Personal thoughts on this: BE READY. I believe this could take one of two different turns here. One bullish for those loving crypto and one bearish but I do believe both will be fairly easy to see which one is likely to occur.
For those newer to the space (Jan 2018 or later) - please read up on the 2017 bull run if you have not already. For those of us who have been in the space for a few years now already know exactly how crazy this market can be.
So lets start with 2 years ago. May 2017. We were around $1500 BTC price. We saw a huge run up between May 2017 and December 2017 to nearly $20k. And then the crash started and continued for all of 2018. But what interests me if in 2017 when Futures Trading was announced as coming soon. CME/CBOE were both looking to open futures trading. This sent the bulls into a frenzy. Media really picked up their coverage. FOMO set in. Everyone starts drinking the BTC KoolAid. We ran up to $20k from $6k in a matter of 5 weeks! And then Futures opened and we immediately dumped 40%+. And then start the strong and steady trend down to $3100 over the course of 2018.
Starting to see any correlations? Is this Fidelity news going to startup the frenzy again and get people back on the BTC train? Will we repeat the same process and over "a few weeks" as we wait for Fidelity to open see a run from about $6k to $20k only to then see Wall Street short it like crazy when it hits Fidelity platform? I don't believe we will see that type of pump but do believe we could see a strong push upwards, $8k? 10k? Perhaps. And if we do over the next few weeks start seeing increasing media hype and attention, Fidelity pumping their news on trading opening, get the known date for it to start, etc. then I'd personally be looking to ride the wave up and be sure to exit a day or two prior to Fidelity trading opening with anticipation that the institutions are not going to be buyers to go long if BTC price has run wild in the weeks leading up to their known date but rather that they'd seek to short the asset.
Flip side of this: does BTC price just reject here in the $6k range and start dumping over the new "few weeks" because Wall Street legitimately DOES want in on the asset to be long positions. But they of course want to buy as cheaply as possible before the long their position. Remember, this is ONLY going to be open to institutions/pros for Fidelity initially. So if I were an institution wanting to long a position, you get price to come down leading up to your known event and then you buy it up and create the FOMO/hype to get the ball rolling in the bullish direction again. In this scenario, institutions can be long, start driving the price UP and then announce they will open BTC trading to its retail investors "in a few weeks"... create further hype/FOMO/KoolAid drinking and really pump the price as retail investors get excited they can buy and sell BTC on Fidelity. At that point those institutions who are long are making killer profits and perhaps then they short once retail investors are allowed in and they crush the retail investors and institution make their money both directions.
Sorry for the long take but that is how I am personally preparing. Does it have to happen exactly or even close to either of those scenarios? Of course not. But I always seek to have a plan in place. Lay it out and then watch to see how the pieces begin to fall into place. Could BTC just dance around sideways and not go up or down much leading up to Fidelity opening in a few weeks for institutions? Certainly. I just personally am preparing for more volatile situations.
Personal trades - as noted in yesterdays chart I was back to all cash. I then noted in comments of yesterdays chart shortly after that I had begun to scale into LTC and NEO for my next trades. I remain in these positions just slightly above average entry and will be watching 4 hour higher lows to utilize as stops. If we see a nice push upward, I will scale out of portions of my positions just to lock up profits and lower my break even point for remainder of position.
Just My 2 Sats!
Bitcoin : Don't FOMO ! But ...Hello, I'm as much as you thrilled by the idea of a new bullrun , knowingly that this time, it's going to be even stronger than before. More and more people are joining the crypto sphere and those who got in, back in january 2018 , are still here since then, waiting for the right moment to get their chance . It's going to be massive : some say bitcoin could reach 100k$ easily , that if we compare the Bitcoin bubble to the Internet bubble , we haven't gone anywhere near as high as people went for the internet, if we look at the money involved. We know the tech is good, but the tech isn't linked to the price , sadly, it needs to climb slowly, with cycles , and those take time, that's how it works. After a move up, people will take their profits, and make the price go down, that's a correction .
My TA is simple.
The bullish sign is the 200 EMA Cross . We know that when we are above this line 80% of successful trades are longs.
The bearish sign is that the RSI is at its biggest overbought since december 2018 ( when BTC hit 16 500$ )
Right now I'm bearish. But I can't predict the future, that's where TA has a limit.
How to exactly know when to get in ?
You can use My PSAR Bot Trader to set up and alert and receive a notification as soon as the Trend reverses.
TLDR;
Prepare yourself for a move. Get some stable coins and be ready to enter if something were to happen. Do not wait the last minute to make your bank transfer, it can take up to 48h and trust me there is no worse senstation that missing out because of that. But most importantly: Don't FOMO because it could very well go -30% again after this move up.
Good luck ! TAs and ideas are welcome.
NMR/BTC - wait a minuteNMR/BTC making a nice move upwards but seems to be finding resistance at the top of the range. If a daily candle closes above the range then the green box will be active. If the daily candle and/or further daily candles close within the range then expected downside towards the lower green boxes.
Blue triangle indicates the current range.
Green box is buy.
Red box is sell.
Blue line indicates major resistance.
ETHEREUM (ETHUSD): avoid FOMO and being eaten alive. I present an alternative and perhaps unpopular perspective on ETHUSD. I'm saying that there is a risk that price on 2H and 4H time frames could spike down into the Daily trend before recovering.
The markets are there to make us feel stupid. If for example, the price rocks north now, everybody would say I am wrong. But I'm not here to be right about one position. I'm here to control my risks over several trades in the long term.
LOOM-BTC Trade SetupMid-Long Term Trade
-> Accumulate in the given Buy Zone
-> TPs at the Blue Lines
-> SL at the red line
WAVESBTC Trade SetupShort-Mid Term Trade
-> Accumulate in the given Buy Zone
-> TPs at the Blue Lines
-> SL at the red line
BTGBTC Trade SetupShort-Mid Term Trade
Accumulate in the given Buy Zone
TPs at the Blue Lines
SL at the red line
STORMBTC Trade SetupShort-Mid Term Trade
Accumulate in the given Buy Zone
TPs at the Blue Lines
SL at the red line
XRPBTC LONG Setup!XRPBTC seems ready for a big move soon and has found support around 9k zone.
I'm guessing this would be a move up.
Yellow rectangle is the Accumulation Zone.
I've setup my orders in the Accumulation ZONE and have kept an extra stagger at the horizontal support under the rectangle as a safety net followed by a SL.
TPs would be those Lower highs on the 4hr timeframe.
Let's see how this goes!
[ETHUSD] Short to 117, look for rebound afterThe current uptrend before the ETH hardfork update seems to have been rejected off of 100 MA resistance, the lighter green line. The support line from the start of this rally, sub 85, that was held at 113 off some sell pressure, has also clearly been broken (white line).
Looking at the fib extension for a 50% pullback and the 50 MA as potential support for a continued rally, I am entering a short position until ETH nears 117. Depending on momentum, etc, I will likely ease out of the position then and look for a long entry. I think we could still see bullish action with some Constantinople FOMO if ETH can catch support at that 50 MA and 50% line.
If ETH falls through 115 without slowing down then low 100s would be my next target.
Happy trading all!
ETH Prospective LONG Trade (Mid/Short Term)The volume on ETHUSD paid is good.
Has bounced from the uptrend line from the bottom. Basing this trade on this uptrend line.
XBT could make a move up here which should ETH Long.
SL for Mid Term Trade Setup -> 110.20 at 3-5x Leverage with an extra stagger around 111(optional)
SL for Short Term Trade Setup -> 119.20 and 5-7x leverage
Pink lines are the mid term targets
Blue lines are short term targets
I'm going for a mid term setup.
What's next for BTC?Previous/Current position?
After a week of indecisive movements and volatility, we've made quite a lot of small LONG trades.
We did go up $300 since my previous LONG Call.
What's happening?
BTC has been pretty volatile for more than a week now. The volatility is limited between 3900 and 3600. Now, we could trade SHORT from this channel's TOP or LONG from the bottom until, it breaks out in either direction.
What's interesting to note is that volume is decreasing.
With current volume, it is difficult to break out towards 4300.
We have a wedge forming with the uptrend support and the neckline of the supposed iHnS.
I believe a break of 4k will render the iHnS true whereas a break of 3600 will mean that the iHnS is invalid.
So, if you wanna trade the break out, 4k and 3600 is where your orders should be at to enter a LONG or SHORT respectively.
Now, with decreasing volume, a pump here would be meaningless as without decent volume, holding the price above 4k would be practically impossible. If we do not break 4k within next couple days, I believe we'll break the uptrend support, find support around 3500 and if that doesn't hold, look for new lower lows eventually.
It's not easy to break out of this channel for good. As we saw previously, we broke the previous uptrend support but bounced back into the channel.
In simple words, charts are still bullish whereas market is giving some bearish signs due to this delay in break out.
Fibs Theory
We didn't get a 61.8% retracement from the previous uptrend and bounced from 50% retracement.
1. Trend based Fib extension of the left shoulder's tip (3435), Neckline's beginning (4423) and the tip of the head (3121) - Green Rectangle
2. Trend based Fib extension of the neckline's beginning (4423), tip of the head (3121) and Neckline's second contact/previous high (4242) - Blue Rectangle
3. Trend based Fib extension of the current bottom/tip of iHnS (3121), previous high (4242) and previous low (3568) - Red Rectangle
4. Trend based Fib extension of the previous major high (4242), Previous low (3568) and previous high (3966) - Yellow Rectangle
78.6% of Trend Based Fib 1 and 23.6% of Trend Based Fib 2 defining the top of current channel
50% of Trend Based Fib 1 and 2 defining the bottom of the current channel
Uptrend targets
Using Trend Based Fib 2 and 3, we have 4733 and 5378 as possible targets.
Downtrend targets
Using Trend Based Fib 2, we have 2942 and 2139 as possible targets.
Using Trend Based Fib 4, we have 2863 and 2183 as possible downtrend targets
My sentiments
Short Term - Bullish
Mid Term - Bullish
Long Term - Bearish
How am I going to trade this?
Considering we are still in an short/mid term uptrend, I wouldn't want to open a SHORT position here.
But looking at the emerging bearish signs, this seems like a perfect scenario to hedge your position.
HEDGE POSITION
Open a low leverage SHORT Position in one bitmex account using proper staggers upto 4400. SL at 4450
Open a medium leverage LONG Position in another bitmex account using proper staggers upto 3440. SL at 3420
Keep taking profits regularly from both positions until we have a clearer picture.
IF NOT HEDGING
LONG is still the play until we break 34-3500 in my opinion. So setting up a LONG from 3450 to 3740 won't be a bad idea.
What are my indicators saying?
FOMO
4hour and daily, both are green at the moment.
HTL
4hour and daily are both red and are at 3796 and 3742 respectively as can be seen from screenshots above.
FOMO Momentum Scalper
On 4hour, Momentum is low on either side since 30th December indicating indecisiveness.
On daily, momentum is still in favour of Bulls
How I trade ALTs?My Personal Alt Trading Strategy
Bitmex trading takes up most of my time and hence, I do not get enough time to TA Alt Coins.
Now, Bitmex is profitable, but just to scatter my risks, I ventured back into ALT Trading last month probably after a gap of 6-7 months.
I came up with this indicators based ALT trading Strategy that I'm sharing with you all here.
I use two indicators, namely ->
1. FOMO Momentum Scalper
This is the leading indicator I use for this trading strategy. I created it a couple months ago and is available for FREE on TradingView
2. FOMO Buy_Sell_Indicator
FOMO is being used in this strategy as a confirmation of trade tool. FOMO makes up for a big percentage of my Trading Decisions in any sort of trading. Unfortunately, it's not free. It's not really required if you can perform some TA or rely on some other indicators for confirmation.
The links to both the indicators are at the bottom of this Idea.
The Strategy
1. I've created a TradingView watchlist of decent to high volume Alt Coins.
It shouldn't look like this on 1hr timeframe.
2. Added FOMO Momentum Scalper (Free) Indicator to my chart.
3. Added FOMO to my chart.
4. Choose 1hr Timeframe and go through the watchlist probably 6 times a day, every 4-5 hours.
5. Wait for a Buy Signal from FOMO Momentum Scalper. Looks like this.
6. Set an Alert for FOMO 1hr Buy Signal on the coin with FOMO Momentum Scalper Buy Signals.
You can add an extra layer of confirmation if you want like FOMO HTL 1hr Crossover. I'm currently running with just 1 confirmation.
Once the Alt Coin you are looking at has crossed over HTL comfortably (consolidating and HTL has started moving up), you can say that that coin is bullish on 1hr Timeframe.
Problem is, with more confirmations, your profit factor on a trade will reduce. As most of the time, while waiting for a confirmation, you'll lose out on initial profits.
For example in this case
9. I find the previous structural LOW and stagger to that low followed by a SL behind that low. I'm mostly running with a fixed percentage for my TPs instead of finding previous structural highs for TPs.
Since, Binance doesn't let you add TPs n SLs at the same time, I'm using 3commas to add SLs, staggers and TPs at the same time.
10. Then, I set up the trade in 3commas and leave it until I come back to the charts. If I see that a couple of TPs have been filled and if there is a reason to let it run, I let the trade run or if it isn't looking good and a couple of TPs have been filled, I close the trade in profits. This is not a bot trading. It's completely manual. There is no point in letting a profitable trade to come back in negatives when the charts have started to become bearish.
Sometimes, I move my SL well in profits for example at TP1 or TP2 and let the trade run if it seems a bit bullish with very little bearishness.
11. Rinse/Repeat. I strictly follow the rules I've set for myself. I do not run around messing with my trades if I'm in profits or even in loss. Let the trade takes it course.
Examples
1. This trade went in other direction. Looking at the chart it was clear AION is downtrending but could be getting very close to reversal. Now I zoomed out and noticed that there is a possibility of Double Bottom. I decided that will be my stagger in case the trade doesn't go in my direction initially. And if it breaks double bottom prospects, it's obvious that it'll keep dropping/downtrending. So, there won't be any point of chasing it in case it doesn't double bottoms.
I set my SL a little below the double bottom and kept my last stagger at the double bottom.
AION ran 9% soon after. Proved to be a good profitable trade in the end.
2. Similar to 1. After running 3-4% a couple times, forming new lows (higher lows) this trade finally ran 9-10%
Prospects of double bottom. Placed Staggers carefully. Staggering, proper risk management paid off in the end.
3. Couldn't find any immediate structural low except one before previous short term uptrend as shown in the chart.
Hence, used that as a possible last Stagger and SL behind it
Looking at the chart, one cannot find any possible reason to close the trade just yet considering, we would have the best possible entry in the trade.
Improvement
I would be keen to know if there is another indicator/timeframe that you've tried with this strategy or made any improvement to it.
I've traded with this strategy for a while now. It works just the same on longer timeframes. For example on 4 hourly and daily.
Let me show you some examples
BCH Continuation of UptrendThings to note
-> Forming a bull flag on the daily timeframe which is a uptrend continuation pattern.
-> Has retraced more than 50% already. I would like to see it retrace to 61.8% before continuing with the uptrend.
-> Forming a falling wedge on smaller timeframes.
-> Has tested HTL on daily timeframe once
-> Decent volume
-> RRR is pretty good considering the next target is a bit far
How am I trading this?
Keeping Low Leverage as this is a long term trade for me.
I'm spacing out my entries with last one being at 350 followed by a tight SL of course.
What are my indicators saying?
FOMO 4hr and Daily are sell signals which indicates that we could be heading down temporarily.
To play it safer by risking not having a LONG position if it runs here, you could enter around 390 or lower
Targets
465
530
590
648
BTC - Beautiful SHORT. Time for Bulls to step in
Previous Trades?
Christmas didn't allow me to ride that SHORT properly. Made multiple small SHORTs as I was unable to look at the charts all the time. This is what I mentioned in my previous Idea.
Opening a small SHORT position right now at low leverage and keeping more entries at 4150, 4280, 4420.
I'll be taking profit around 3870, 3730, 3670, 3550, 3470, 3370
What's happening?
The reason I say it's time for Bulls to step in is that if bulls don't step in right now, we'll break this big support area and head towards new lows.
I'm betting on Bulls this time after that beautiful SHORT from 4200.
You should have closed a majority of your SHORT here.
I would suggest letting a portion of it run.
Almost everyone I know in crypto space is seeing this massive Inverse HnS.
All of my students in my private group are seeing this IHnS. Trading it should be a good idea right? Since, so many people are looking at it.
Maybe not such a great idea.
If this iHnS is in play, once the neckline breaks (4150 zone), there is little to no resistance between 4400 and 5000. Hence, a LONG position could prove to be extremely profitable. More profitable than a SHORT here to 2900-3000.
This makes me think, if I was a Giant Whale and I wanted to dump my BTCs, wouldn't this be a perfect opportunity for me to empty my bags? Considering the orderbook would be filled with buy orders.
Well, that's the negative me. A break below 3430 will invalidate the iHnS dreams for me and that is when I'll look for a SHORT entry. Not before that.
The positive side of me thinks, even Bears would want it to go up from here, so that they can get a higher entry. Profit from 3600-2900 is obviously too small as compared to profits bears can make from a 4.4k or 5k Short.
You can see an uptrend line. This line has been respected for now, but I think, it won't be for long. In a couple of hours, it'll out of the trend and invite break out traders, retail traders like myself to SHORT it to Low 3500s or High 3400s.
Fibs Theory
A drop to 3540 will confirm a 61.8% retracement of the uptrend.
Trend based fib extension using previous high of 4420, this years low 3122 and current high of 4243, tells us that 61.85 retracement would be 3436. This tells me that if iHnS is playing out, 3540 to 3436 should be the area of reversal.
My sentiments
Short Term - Bearish
Mid Term - Bullish
Long Term - Bearish
How am I going to trade this?
I've very little contracts left in my SHORT. Will close them as we proceed closer to 3540.
Got LONG orders in a separate bitmex account at 3550, 3496,3436
If we don't drop here, which is highly unlikely, I'll close my SHORT and wait for a retracement to get in a LONG position later.
Will set a sell stop around 3420 to enter a SHORT position if it keeps dumping, invalidating the iHnS.
What are my indicators saying?
FOMO
4hr has been a sell signal since 4100.
Daily is a sell signal which appeared yesterday.
Holy TrendLine (HTL)
Daily HTL is at 3744
4hrly HTL is at 3799
HTLs are red on each timeframe. Suggesting a bit more of a dump.
FOMO Momentum
Suggesting a Bullish Divergence on 4hr Timeframe (marked with pink lines).
Gigantic Bullish divergence building on Hourly (marked with pink lines).
BTC - Back to 3200 or form new high above 4000? Part 2Previous/active trades?
After a powerful rejection from 3900, BTC consolidated at 3700 level for a level where I took profits on my SHORT from 3900. Was a nice 6% drop.
We bounced from fibs I shared in an update on my previous idea. Then out of no-where we saw a high volume pump to 4116. I got stopped in Profit on that pump. Must admit I didn't see that pump coming.
What's happening?
BTC has double topped at 4170 on hourly timeframe.
This could be the lower high (under 4420) mention in my previous trading idea.
But BTC might make another move and if this move falls short again, we'll have to call 4170 the new top until we retrace to one of the following levels -
3860-3730
3550-3450
3370
In worst case, the retracement could end at 3370 support. If 3370 breaks, bears will be out looking for a lower low (2900-3000).
Another interesting thing to note is LONG wicks in both directions signaling indecision.
Usually at times like these, we see BTC's infamous BART moves.
LONGing here wouldn't be the best course of action in my opinion since a double top and possible new lower high has been formed. Long wicks to the top is depicting high sell pressure.
Fibs Theory
According to trend based fib extension from previous low (3431) to previous high (4422) and current bottom (3121), 100% fib is at 4108. BTC has wicked that level.
If 4170 is the lower high we were anticipating, trend based fibs for upcoming downtrend tells us that the 61.8% retracement would be around 3370.
Ideal movement here on would be to retrace 61.8% and seek higher high after depicted with high opacity blue arrows.
But 3730 is not a strong support which leads to 3550 being the next possible reversal level.
My sentiment
Short Term - Bearish
Mid Term - Bearish
Long Term - Bearish
What are my indicators saying?
Daily HTL is still at 3740.
4hrly HTL is at 3670
Hourly HTL is at 3872. It has provided support to this uptrend since the beginning. Would be interesting if we break it at 3870 and continue towards 3730.
FOMO 4hrly is green. Had turned temporarily turned red after a reversal from 3900 the other day.
FOMO 1hrly is red.
FOMO Momentum Scalper on 4hrly is showing bearish divergence but it's not very significant (shown with red lines)
How am I trading this?
I'm in no trade right now.
Opening a small SHORT position right now at low leverage and keeping more entries at 4150, 4280, 4420.
I'll be taking profit around 3870, 3730, 3670, 3550, 3470, 3370
BTC - Back to 3200 or form new high above 4000?Previous/active trades?
We saw a nice move up today, finally breaking the 3540 resistance after 24 hours of struggle. In the process we did downward fake out invalidating the bull flag and ultimately hitting my SHORT SL.
Found myself an entry at 3615 after a breakout from the downtrend resistance market in red towards 3800.
Currently sitting under another major horizontal resistance 3876.
Peaked to 3777.
What's happening?
I can see two trade opportunities here.
1. Reversal from 3800-3900 resistance. Considering the buy momentum at the moment, I think we'll easily get there and won't reverse until we touch the resistance properly.
Marked with high opacity Blue Arrow
2. Break 3800-3900 resistance and form a new lower high between 4000 and 4400. Probably double top and reverse. We have a decent buy volume on the daily timeframe and if doesn't die soon, that should help BTC get to 4000-4300.
Marked with low opacity Blue Arrows
Market Structure
Remember this bear market is here to stay for another 8-9 months at least
And things can't just stay pumping left right and center in a bear market
Major resistances here onward are 3800-3900 -> 4100-4300 -> 4800-5200
And breaking 38-3900, will confirm that 3200 is the new temporary bottom.
Now, breaking 4300 will form a higher high and should take us to next resistance level of 4800-5200.
This will form a new market structure of 3200 and 5200, until we break it in either direction.
Breaking 5200 would end this market structure and bring us back to 6k. I don't see it happening anytime soon. We are too far from doing this.
Breaking 3200 would prolong this bear market further to new lows between 1800-2900.
Fibs Theory
According to trend based fib extension from previous low (3431) to previous high (4422) and current bottom (3121), 61.8% fib is at 3734 (where we are sitting right now followed by 78.6% fib at 3899.
78.6% fib of trend happens to be 23.6% retracement of this drop from 6422 to 3121. This makes me believe that we'll see a correction of this uptrend from 3900.
If we don't follow this, the next point of reversal from this uptrend would be 38.2% fib line (4383). I personally don't see it breaking 43-4400 and retrace 50% without making a correction of the current uptrend.
My sentiment
Short Term - Bullish
Mid Term - Bearish
Long Term - Bearish
What are my indicators saying?
Daily HTL is at 3740
That's where we are sitting at the moment.
4Hrly FOMO has been green since 3165. Might call for a retracement, if we don't reach 3800 soon.
How am I trading this?
I'm currently in a LONG with a Stop Loss in profits at 3700. I'll let this trade run for a while. TP some more between 3800-3900. But I won't close it in case we break 3900.
Based on my Fib theory and 3800-3900 being a strong resistance, I believe we'll see a retracement soon.
Trade 1 -> I'm setting up SHORT orders in a different Bitmex account as follows
Initial Entry -> 3810
Stagger 1 -> 3860
Stagger 2 -> 3899
SL -> 3910
Trade 2 -> In case we break 3900 and my SHORT SL hits, I'm setting up
market buy stop at 3920.
Trade 3 -> In case we don't reach the resistance level (doubt it), I'll look for SHORT entry once we break 3500.