Trading psychology - The key to success !!In this post, I'm going to focus on one of the most unpopular but most important topics of all.
TRADING PSYCHOLGY !!
The central issue in retail are feelings, especially fears. Anyone who wants to survive in retail in the long term needs mental knowledge and has to work hard on oneself all the time.
The beginner neglects topics such as risk management, money management, position sizes mostly completely. This leads to the fact that he becomes insecure with every small movement. He is constantly afraid of not getting straight. Anyone who is in this emotional kaos, it is very difficult to achieve long-term profits.
That is the main reason why most of them fail at trading. They trade emotions, not setups. All these useful tools are of little help if you are not able to use them with discipline. And only those who have their emotions under control will also rule the trade. Traders do not fail because of the system, they fail because of the implementation. Many studies have proven that.
Do you know the advertisement. a good-looking guy, a hot blonde in the passenger seat of his lambos ... takes his cell phone out of his pocket, quickly places a buy order while driving, and 2 traffic lights further he has earned 3k..don't fall for such guys.trading is hard work !
I burned my portfolio 3 times before I got confused with my personal psychological problems.
Already heard of the 90-90 90 rule: 90% of all traders lose 90 % of their portfolio in the first 90 days.
Your spot on, the only way to succeed is hard work and control those emotions. Trade the chart not your heart. Safe trading everyone.
First ask yourself frafe aller: Why do I trade, what do I want to achieve? The answer determines whether you want to trade as a game, as a hobby or as a business!
The second important question is what psychological type are you
Brain stem-oriented person:
-person-oriented
-avoid arguments
-Customer
- inflexible
- strong need for security
- are routine tasks
This guy acts stomach-oriented, listens to others and avoids change - own trading style difficult to achieve
diencephalic oriented person:
- dominant character
- gets straight to the point
- can admit mistakes
-acts impulsively
-acts flexibly
This type is quite suitable for scalps and daytrades - but you have to be careful not to over-trade
strives for a safe distance
-is a lone wolf
-has little relation to his feelings
-rational process-oriented
- he keeps calm in the chaos
This type has very good trading requirements, emotions on the interpersonal level will also be reflected in trading. Stop out-never mind. This type will certainly find its strengths in system.swing and position trading.
All professionals went through hell in the first few years. Why should it be any other way for you?
Are you ready to lose money in order to increase your portfolio much later in the long term?
Are you ready to take many years of time for success?
IF YES, YOU CAN DO IT !!
WHIT COACHING TO THE GOAL !!
if you want to become a good trader you should constantly work on further development. external coaching and self-coaching are the solution. every professional, no matter in which area they need help, just pay attention to the fact that they are not of the beginners in their suits reinfallen can be found on countless youtube channels. it cost me months, if not a year.
IF YOU WANT, I M ALSO HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS; JUST WRITE ME !!
If you like my posts smash the like button, comment or follow me !!
and I will expand this important topic into countless numbers
Fomo
XVG double Cross in Weekly - Big TrendAs you can see, there is a double overlap of the MA-7-25-99 in the time frame next week. This is a sure permanent trend announcement.
1st target: 174
2nd target: 336
3rd target: 821
From the historical point of view even more... ; )
$COIN The Most OverHyped and OverPriced Listing of the 21st CntyCoinbase's Direct Listing signifies what is wrong with the trading world on a grand scale as of late.
The new investor possibly with their stimulus check or worse their life savings throwing everything into every turd that is being FOMO'ed onto the public.
$COIN is no exception, besides the company taking advantage of new crypto investors be charging a ridiculous transaction fee for each trade.
The company itself really is in a bad position, financially and spatially in the sector. The balance sheet isn't anything to bat your eyes at, and the multitude of early investors before it even went public will gladly dump all their stock at these price levels as it is by far the most overhyped company trading right now. The real value for this turd imo? $10 and I wouldn't even throw much at it.
Call me jaded since I actually used the website when I first started trading crypto before switching, but this public listing will be the death of the current crypto run and we should see all the cryptos begin to fall like dominoes behind this tanking ticker.
PT in a few months around $100 and I wouldn't even buy it at those levels.
BTC ATH for DummiesOn this chart I try to help you visualise the following:
Resistance and Support levels using simple boxes or the help of the Volume Profile indicator.
Divergence, Accumulation and FOMO using Volume bars versus price using only chart candles and the Volume bars indicator
Top longing visualised with candles and the Volume Profile indicator
Top longers, where they are created and the resistance that is then generated at the top forcing them to either close at a loss or liquidate
1. BEARISH DIVERGENCE
Here you can see the volume bars declining over time but in the chart the price is rising over the same period. Expect a volume spike and big price move at the end.
2. SELL OFF INTO ACCUMULATION
Once the price reaches the required level, the sells are triggered. This causes panic sells and the larger second sell volume bar.
After the sell off, volume bars are small and roughly the same size as the asset is accumulated over time while price is kept low.
3. FOMO INTO SELLS
Accumulation over, large sell orders are removed allowing prioce to jump.
Volume bars increase in size over time as more people FOMO buys pushing the price to a new ATH until the target price is met, FOMO continues to push the price higher than the top creating the zone of Top Longers.
Buys orders are then pulled causing price to drop.
Quickpost Beware FOMO into BNBAs I see it BNB is about the end of its run in terms of time. I am a fan of using fib channels to chart out large movements and to try and see when the majority of a move is done and in general around the 2 level of the Fib I would expect to see some topping behavior. On a weekly chart we could definitely see some wicking through the 2 level that could get many people looking for more continuation. I personally am going to close my BNB position and putting it into something that is undervalued.
Given how quickly the price action came up I would expect a relatively quick top. After we top a return to the 1 line over the next year or so would be a very natural. One thing I am going to be looking for is the pregnant VSTOP on the daily close on the daily time frame. When you start to see pregnant VSTOPS it is a sign that price action is moving very quickly and it is a sign that the trend will be reversing soon or will need a month or so of consolidation. I'll be out around $700ish
$VET is testing ATHs on the daily -- no kidding!With $BTC expected to hit a consolidation point or minor pullbacks..
...the stage is set for Alt Season 2021!
And we have $VET here that is endlessly retesting ATHs ever since the turn of this year.
While 5th Waves are characteristically related to FOMO, we can clearly see that the 'energy buildup' is increasing ever since late March.
I will not be surprised if more FOMO kicks in and retail rushes in to grab their $VET.
With this information at your fingertips, you have the best seats to front-run these buyers.
Go $VET!
Short sell when others are fearfulI posted an idea on GME yesterday where I did not even mention the price going down, I was very neutral and did not give reasons for the price going down 90%.
Still some bagholders that bought at the top got angry and started insulting me, maybe they think they can cyber bully me into silence? Lol. Oh boy, here we go.
How I wish I could buy a put on GME here from Europe. But I can't, what I can do though is paper trade. If I could I'd buy a put expiring DEC 2021 with a strike price of 100.
The Gamestop story is similar to the Blockbuster story, it's always the same story all over again, history repeats itself but this time it's REALLY the same story, to the details.
Their model just is not working. And if they were going to magically change they would have gone it long ago.
I am not saying a hobo has better odds that GME management, don't worry about them I'm sure they can bounce back if they want to, with another project.
Simpliest solution is to use the US government+FED trick:
- Sell some shares, use all the money from the sales to keep the business running
- Keep your entire salary and company profits in your pocket
- Start talking to people are you
==> "Monetize" the shares to have a starting capital for a new business and use the people you know and trust and can rely on to be part of it
You can compare GME to Bitcoin & Tesla, that went way up, but not before going way down:
I would buy a put and target $10, I would not sell it before the price drops below 100 in any case.
I could add to it on the way down, give it another kick while it's down. Once the price gets to 10 bucks thought I'm not sure it's worth it.
Or maybe it goes like HMNY
& BLIA
& SEARS
& LHHM (kek)
& ENE
& RSH
& TOY (Toys R Us)
& Remington Arms Company, LLC (after 200 years damn)
& Vanity (private)
& MCDIF
& SSI (Stage Stores, Gordmans)
& Southeastern Grocers
& SNH (I bought at 9 cents or so because I think bigger fools will buy btw :p nah honestly they still have over 100k employees and billions in revenues...but the price did go down 100%)
& CHUC
& WM/WAMU (the comeback! oh wait no haha)
& Worldcom (funny one)
& INTE
& JCP
& PCG
& Chrysler LLC/Chrysler Group LLC/FCA US LLC/bought by the dutch
& HTZ
& (Chuck E Cheese)
& Diesel
& BONT
& Claire’s (bought by vultures at Elliott mngmt the guys that tried to seize a warhip from Argentina trust me it's not to save the business)
& 24 Hour Fitness
& PYX (a "new era of hemp products you just don't get it")
& XL
& RIDE
& SUNE
& DRYS (congratulations to those that bought at 2000 and held but to be fair those that bought "cheap" at 20 and held also lost everything)
& MNKD
& VRX (awww ticker is gone from tradingview good thing I saved some screenshots)
& CXRXF
& GEVO
& PVCT
& GBSN
& MGTI
& EBIO
& ANY
& NWBO
& What was that company where trading was halted and held at zero?
& LINE
& SDRL (Well I guess the gap got filled - 100% good job fomo buyer & diamond hands This chart wow 🤣)
& INSY
& ANTH
& NSE:DHFL
& NSE:JPPOWER
& PC Jeweller (very famous Indian scam)
& Monsanto
& Mory Group (thousands of lost jobs, 6 years later 1500 workers sue the company that bought the bag)
& LSE: TCG. If you want to find a dead company in the US you scan bagholding forums, if you want to find one in France & around you look for "lost jobs"
& Lufthansa
& GLE (I worked for them - not as a trader. Their management said blockchain was the guarenteed future. Does it feel good watching others fail? Yes ^^)
& URW (France)
& DELGIA (Belgian stock up 250% in 2 days then went to zero)
& Every single stock that is ever trending on stocktwits that I didn't already mention
& Many many many more
& GME soon
I doubt any GME bagholder will come explain to me why these companies, 1 by 1, are different from GME :)
I am sure for 1000 shares that went to zero there is 1 or 2 that survived.
GME price is higher today than when it was making money. Surviving would mean staying around $20. Or less, entirely new business from ground up as I said.
Not everyone is a casino gambler, some people even despise gambling with a passion (🙋♂️).
Some people actually buy companies based on their fair value, and these people tend to have a lot of money.
And other people buy & sell for all sort of reason, for example if an employee gets a few dozen shares as bonus, and he thinks the price is very high, he is mor elikely to sell.
Linear chart:
Log chart:
Ending words
I have been trying to look more at stocks, expand the number of instruments I trade rather than look for mediocre setups in my comfort zone, and how much frustration and regret I am getting not being able to short GME... But nothing I can do about it.
GME is a pump and dump. It's going to zero. This is my paper trade.
Feef Rinance W patternW bullish 1D pattern.
Strong bullish tendence with high highers and high lowers.
Bitcoin's mid-term analysis you should considerHere I present my POV on Bitcoin's mid-tem action with a confluence of bearish signals seen on the daily chart.
Even though Bitcoin is showing an impressive bullish strenght, it is also leaving some negative traces behind. Let's take a look at the potential worrying aspects:
Rising wedge formation (magenta dashed lines): this pattern has a 60% probability of a downward breakout, according to Bulkowski
Volume trending downwards (indicated by the orange arrow): this trend reinforces the wedge pattern; we should expect a big move soon
Elliott wave (green wave): this impulse wave is usually followed by an ABC corrective wave
Bearish divergence (magenta lines): the price is forming a strong bearish divergence on the RSI since the beginning of the the rising wedge
Extreme greed : this Bitcoin's bull cycle has shown a lot of greed and FOMO, much more than previous cycles, as seen by the very agressive inclination on bigger time frame charts
Stimulus checks : even though the fact that many people is putting their $1400 stimulus in Bitcoin is good, this is also very attractive for whales looking for huge liquidations any time soon
These multiple confluences should make you - at least - reconsider any overbullish prediction for the following weeks regarding Bitcoin. I'm not saying a correction here would mean the bull cycle is over, I think we're far from that, but corrections are healthy for a bigger price development and we have not seen many along the way so far.
>> However, I don't think the breakout would occur right now. Considering Dollar's inflation with all the bad decisions coming from the FED, I believe we would reach new highs before that, probably touching the upper line of the wedge once more, setting a new ATH @ ~70k, and then starting the potential greater correction of this bullrun.
If it happens, the probable worst case scenario is already on the chart, being the lowest low of the wedge, around 31k, supported by the VPVR.
But if we actually end up breaking the wedge downwards, I'll update this idea with the possible targets and support levels we may reach.
BTC bull pron for us degensA couple different scenarios based off historical break of previous ATHs. Being citibank predicted 318k .... unprecedented money printing.... multibillion dollar corps buying.... leads me to think the corn blows past 318k. Maybe even outpace the 2013 bull run.
I would not be surprised to see a market cap similar to gold..... at a 10 trillion cap, that would imply $476,000/btc
I'm personally not see much retail fomo on the streets yet, which leads me to believe the parabolic blowoff is still 6-9 months away. When grandma starts asking about bitcoin, prepare to exit. lol
Goodluck humans.
REEF recovering power after Sam Trabucco's FUD attack.As you can see, REEF defeated the Sam Trabucco's FUD attack.
This is not the first time that REEF got fud-attacked, and always the crypto defeats these criminal people.
Why they attack REEF? Because they feel envy and fear by the great potential this project has, and the very good person and CEO that Denko is.
Now, you can see why is too important keep calm and NEVER sell when a FUD attack comes to your crypto.
This is a very great experience for all.
Don't worry, REEF will go to the moon.
If you are out of REEF, buy it right now and add to your portfolio; this is one of the most important and powerfull crypto projects right now.
Buy REEF. This crypto will explode to a X10 in some days.Reef is a smart liquidity aggregator and yield engine that enables trading with access to liquidity from both CEXs and DEXs while offering smart lending, borrowing, staking, mining through AI driven personalized Reef Yield Engine.
Tomorrow will be a special staking event offering rewards at 2:00 pm CET
Right now, REEF is on a dip, and this is the perfect opportunity to buy!
What can I do with REEF?
Governance: vote on different proposals such as releasing new features and re-adjusting certain parameters in the system
Protocol fees: pay fees for operations such as entering/exiting a the basket, reallocation, rebalancing and other activities
Staking: stake into various pools to earn interests with preferred APR;
Yield Distribution: choose the payout ratio of the profit generated by the activities in your basket
Reef.Finance is secured under Polkadot's shared security model, ensuring high resilience and forkless upgradability.
A decentralized network governed entirely by Reef Token holders via DAO to achieve a transparent future: a future based on more truth and less trust.
IS THE CRYPTO MARKET ABOUT TO CRASHLIKE 2017?Greeting This is arsalan here. I am a forex institutional market trader and cryto trader from the past 6 years but never shared any of my idea here so this is the first time.
The thing I noticed to share this chart with you guys is that to stop facing big losses.
CHART ANALYSE:
The naked chart showing down below is the weekly chart of bitcoin/usdt pair. I am seeing the bearish divergence on weekly time frame and it never happened before since the last crash of 2017. The market is making higher highs but the RSI of period 14 is making lower highs. That is the indication of bigger crash that we may see in the coming years.
Done for now but from now onwards I will keep share my ideas here with you guys free of cost so follow me for future analysis.
Thank You!!
Best regards: Arsalan aka binaryTrader :)
BE SMART: DONT FOMO- BTC BULL SUMMERI’m BULLISH till SUMMER,
but see a lot of folks doing the FOMO dance right now.
Typically after every high there is a pullback! BTC is going up for sure and if your a long term investor don’t do anything. But for those new to the game the next few days will prob see a slight pullback for better buy targets then 62k.
I just want to point out that if your new don’t just buy watch it for a few days and learn the rhythm. BTC is going up but the next couple days should see a little drawback for bargain prices to push us up to 65k
Not saying SHORT just saying selling now and waiting a couple days or delaying your FOMO feelings would be the smart play.
Thanks 🙏🏻 Hope everyone’s making money! Think we are BULL till SUMMER for sure
A Day Traders Results of not Sticking to the Plan! feat. BoeingAt times I find myself locked in to trying to find a better entry while my trade plan is setting up during the day. More often than not, when the internal battle is won by the impatient voice in my head,
I sneak into a trade early and pay the price for it.
Well... today was one of those days
I'm not sitting here saying that my set-ups are always right, nor am I saying I'm some trading savant that wins every trade. What I am saying is the important part is to have a plan and follow it. In doing this, it eliminates a lot of the emotion that can go into the decisions being made throughout the trading day. It allows for well-thought out entry and exit points, manages exposure of losses when wrong, and provides a picture of what the profit/loss will be depending on if the analysis is right or wrong.
Below is just an example of a position I took today in which I didn't follow my plan and ended up being on the wrong side of the trade. The technical analysis explained is simply included to describe the approach and thought process I had in entering this trade. In no way am I suggesting for anyone to use these types of set ups, nor am I claiming these set ups are a successful way to trade.
SPOILER ALERT: The price action would have given me my entry if I would have stuck to the plan.
This morning I posted the trade idea image below before entering a trade in BA
At this point I had been patient and let the 1st move settle. I noticed that the price action was stuck dead in the middle of a battle between two previous action zones; one supply (top gray-shaded zone) and one demand (bottom green-shaded zone). I was licking my chops knowing that this was setting up perfectly for a day trade. I anticipated that the price action would give me a good point of confirmation before making its move either to the up or down-side.
The plan that if the price broke up above the supply zone, entry would be triggered at a rejection of downside re-entry into supply. Or to enter a long put position at a rejection of upside re-entry back into the demand zone, following a break below.
The confirmation of a call entry would give a change of about 3 delta to the upside while placing my stop-loss at a break below the supply zone, giving a delta of -1.5. Profit target was decided by an above descending trendline in which the angle was produced by previous highs of supply resistance connected to the following confirmed demand zone before a lower supply was formed. So, a higher supply based resistance would be drawn to a lower demand-found support, angling down towards but above the current price range. My thought here is that if there is downside rejection to a previous supply zone, the sellers are currently no longer there. Inversely, an upside rejection to a previous demand zone shows that the buyers are no longer there.
The confirmation to enter a put position provided the same risk/reward profile as the call entry. Similarly, the profit target was decided by the inverse of the supply to demand (descending) trendline. Which results from a previously lower supply zone connected to a higher confirmed demand zone, ascending towards but below the current price action.
Whether it was because I got impatient, or maybe I thought I had solved the Rubik's cube equivalent to arbitrarily drawn trendlines for intra-day breakouts... It didn't matter, I didn't really have a plan.
Below is where I decided to enter the trade. - I posted this chart as an update to the trade idea shortly after I entered.
I wasn't sure what resistance would be produced from a break of that level and I wasn't really sure at the time where my stop loss should be placed. After entering the trade I realized that the entry would give me higher negative delta to reach my stop (increasing it to as potentially high as -2). I still really wasn't sure where price would find upside resistance, so I just used the same resistance as the original plan.
So what came as a result?
After a break of the supply zone failed to hold, a higher low was found but was quickly met with a rejection to break back into supply.
The result? A potential diamond top developing!
Translation = quick, everyone long simultaneously set stop losses on a break below the bottom trendline support.
Next up. You guessed it
Stop was hit and I exited the trade for a loss.
The result of entry from the original plan is as follows.
Lessons to be learned-
1. Yes, although in this case my original trade plan would have given me my entry and produced the expected profit, this will not always be the case.
If a trade plan is created and it doesn't end up triggering your intended entry, GOOD! you were wrong anyways but you didn't have to lose money this time to figure that part out.
Take this as an opportunity to review your trade plan. See what indications you may have missed to enter or not to enter. See where you can improve your edge.
2. Maintain control of your emotions during price action, don't let quick moves produce a reaction.
If a move is already happening quickly, guess what you're late to the dinner party. Don't try and convince yourself that the stale crackers and warm coleslaw left is the meal you really want to be eating.
3. If you miss a trade or your plan doesn't produce an entry, try an identify where others entered and why.
4. Look at both sides of every trade.
-If you intend to go long ask yourself if you already held a position what would keep you from selling at your entry, or what would reasons would there be to add to your position here.
-If you're short ask yourself "why wouldn't I buy here" or "why would I want to be quick to sell at this level?"
5. The best part about trading is learning. At times, it is more rewarding to learn than it is to win.
-I have included the link to my original BA trade idea
YOLO...keep your FOMO under checkCliche candle patterns can be mis-spdcified.
In some cases if a market can probe the Limit Order Book deeply it can mean quite the opposite to what is wriiten...so hammer-like formations can signify further downside and weakness over several bars.
So just use limits and dont get sucked in on the upside.