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ETHUSD Next Trade Points from HereETHUSD ETH has been a fabulous short all the way dwon from 399 in a succession of trades over the summer. Left this one looking for a bounce from 252 and by chance happened to write on it last at exactly this point. At least shorts were closed out there but really should have reversed long there too. Easy to say that now of course.... It's afe agin whilst it's moving inside the parallels of the little continuation pattern it's now forming with first resistance right here at 305-6. A break above here should trigger further strength up to 320-329 range- then once it cam break above 330 it should start to find more buyers still and run back up to the upper parallel where it should then fall away again. On the downside a break back below 278 is needed to trigger another near term short back to 252 at least. *For fastest ALT updates please see link at top left of main page.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
GBPUSD:Look to sell the Counter Rally in GBP before next declineGBPUSD Sterling has spent all of August in free-fall. After breaking below the support line at 1.3029 it's finished the week right on the next line of support at 1.2766 after a low on Friday at 1.2723 . It should counter-rally some more from here, potentially as high as 1.2928-1.2957 at best before it comes off again back to current levels at least. On the downside any failure on Monday to hold up from 1.2766 and from 1.2720 at the lowest will trigger further near term weakness back to 1.2596. Worth a short if we see it happen with stops above 1.2770. Otherwise can look to short again from 1.2928-1.2957 range, as above. * For fastest real-time updates please see link to Global Markets at top left of main page.
Short
by sumastardon
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Update and Key Trade Points this weekBitcoin Update 24th July 09:42 Bst 04:42 Est The break higher duly came at the rather strange hour of 05:00 Bst and midnight Est. Volume has been quite high though not spectacular. Not much follow through in London though. It's the first time Bitcoin has made such a small surge following a break-out higher and it hasn't reached any clear resistance level either. The rally is a little spooky so far, lacking real intent. The long shot from 7800 is going OK but not great so far. Raising the stop to 7924 for now and hoping it won't get taken before more buyers appear. Last Bitcoin Update 23rd July 15:23 Bst 10:23 Est ...Bitcoin had to break above 7350-7380 to follow long to 7500 minimum and ideally to 7741 where it was a sell again with a stop 20 or so above. But the call was ruined by raising the stop too high to 7389 - Bitcoin came back to a low at the 7347 line again then rallied to just above 7500 before falling away to retest the 7347 line once more before rallying hard to a high at 7764. In this case a stop of 25 points was needed (above the given level at 7741 here on Bitmex) to avoid getting stopped out - sorry about that. It was meant to rally over the weekend and then to come off from 7741 at tops....pretty hard too. But it hasn't, so far at least. Instead it's finding support off the uppermost parallel of the little continuation pattern it had spent most of the weekend inside....it's now outside of the pattern and using it as support. This is telling us that there is still a chance of a break to the upside from here. It's at mission critical for the bulls in this argument at this point. It's giving off mixed short term signals here - it should have met with pretty heavy rejection at 7741 through to 7800 at the uppermost parallel but so far has only been mild. Bull hopes are being faded from 7725 but not aggressively so as yet. Price action is telling us to revert to open mind-set from here....it should come off but it isn't doing, dammit. If still short suggest lowering the stop to 7725 for starters and to 7445 at lowest for rough break even if hit. Trade Points from Here if Flat Don't want to get sucked in if it can be avoided from this point but we need to be prepared for a break higher... If it comes and volume rises to back it up we could get a very good break too. It has to break above the 7780-7800 range and the uppermost parallel on Bitmex on rising volume to follow long again to 7948 initially and then 8576 and potentially back as high as 9995 on this feed over the course of this week. However, as usual, if we see a break higher but volume doesn't quickly build on its back we need to be ready to close out and then be ready to go again, depending on price action at that critical point... But if do get a break higher on volume it should be worth following it for significantly higher levels still this week. Returning to the downside a break below 7683 should force Bitcoin lower still to 7614-7610 for a small scalp at best. It's likely to bounce again from here in the near term though. It has to break below 7610 to trigger a more aggressive short back to 7347 again. * For fastest Bitcoin updates in real-time for more active traders please see link at top-left of main page
Long
by sumastardon
3
FVX 5 Year Treasury Yield: Longer Term Outlook for RatesFVX Longer Term Outlook for Rates Since Yellen retired in February FVX has risen to test the the junction of the upper parallel at the same point in time as it hit the fixed resistance line at 29.83. Since then it's been consolidating inside a slowly forming pennant formation with a spike down to the 25.46 line almost exactly before it pushed higher again. Though it's likely to spend some more time messing inside the pennant, eventually the upper parallel is going to give way leading a spurt higher to 37.22 and then after consolidating some more should beat 37.22 and push higher to 52.39. That's the most likely stopping point for interest rates from that point - until wage inflation pops even higher, forcing the Fed to follow long again on rates, whether the President approves or not.
FLong
by sumastardon
1
USOIL: WTI June 3 Trade Points For Week AheadWTI USOIL: June 3rd Trade Points for Week Ahead Good call/bad call last week here. Was looking to close out the short as the week began at around the 66.48 line and then reversed long from here looking for 69.48. A forlorn hope.The rally got as high as 68.63 before failing away to end the week 1 pip below the next key support at 65.55 - and busted out the long stop just under 66.47 for a few pips loss as it fell, before a little bear closing at the end of the week to finish at 65.69. This price action has left WTI on a knife edge, saved by the closing bell at the downside limit and in desperate need of buyers right here to avoid a another plunge to 61.92 initially. Any fall below 65.40 can be shorted using a stop above the 66.48 line to begin with looking for 61.92 initial downside..Any subsequent fall below here will signal further weakness to 60.21 and later to 58.25 as we move through the summer months Looking at upside potential from here, the 65.55-65.50 level is critical to the medium term trend. Bulls know full well this is their last stand for the summer ahead. It may well try to rally away from here but am not looking to buy it again after the pattern it's made since the last rally attempt. But it may tempt contarians...in which case please use a stop only 10 or so pips under the lows of last week and be ready to reverse short if broken. Am hoping for a good break lower here - but it may defy us a while longer yet if it can find some respite right here. If so, be prepared wait a little longer still or perhaps consider setting an alert
TVC:USOILShort
by sumastardon
1
UK100: FTSE 100 Index Trade Set-Ups For Week AheadFTSE 100 Index UK100 Since making a seasonal high on 22nd May FTSE has fallen away down a narrow impulse wave and chanelled down the smaller falling pair of parallels from the new high. Whist constrained within the channel FTSE remains vulnerable to further selling pressure back to the first minor support line at 7691. Failure to hold here will trigger a shorting opportuninty back to the 7600-75832 range where it should attempt to bounce away to the upside again. Looking beyond that bounce, should 7580 fail further out in time FTSE will likely fall away much further over the summer, to a new downside target in the 7335-7294 range. Returning to the upside FTSE has to break back above the upper parallel carrying the current down-wave for the bears to back off again now - it can do this, but only if 7691 holds up on London open. This level looks key to the near term. It must hold here and bounce up through the upper falling parallel and then hold up on the restest once it is broken above - if we see this kind of price action soon after the open can look to get long with stops under the 7690 level, but still ready to reverse again short if the stop is broken by 10 or more points.
OANDA:UK100GBP
by sumastardon
EURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally HereEURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally now Using DXY as the confirming signal (please see DXY updates) we've been short EURUSD for some time now, looking for a test of 94.20 on DXY as the likely medium term top for Dollar strength across the pairs. That came yesterday (too busy shorting Bitcoin to notice, sorry for that). But EUR didn't quite make it to the next downside target at 1.1665 here, bouncing away 11 pips higher than really expected, though it did bounce precisely off the lower parallel of the little pattern EUR is now trapped within. Yesterday was mostly bear closing by look of the chart. Today it's more bull buying with a small impulse candle arriving as London opened after an aimless overnight session in far East. It can rally to 1.1756 and then will probably need impetus and follow through from New York to push any higher still. Only once it can get above here should it push back up to the 1.1823 level, presnting a potential long opportunity if we see it develop later. But until we see that evidence present itself EUR is becoming vulnerable to another sell off, though this time it should only come back to the 1.1721 line to begin with and will need US selling to drive it lower still towards the 1.1679-1.1665 range. With the Dollar expected to enter an extended period of consolidation under 94.2 on DXY it's no longer appropriate to be looking for big EUR weakness in the nearterm. However, looking a little further out in time, DXY is expected to rally a further 1% or so from 94.2 to 95.15 and EUR to fall back to 1.1558 eventually before any real change in overall trend is likely on this pair. This update was posted shortly after the DXY companion forecast this morning. It never loaded correctly. Very annoying. Anyway, what was expected above is happening pretty much as it should so far - EUR is about to break higher as DXY unravels under the dynamic from the highs a while longer.
by sumastardon
4
WTI: USOIL Still on Target for 86.33 but overbought near-termWTI USOIL After consolidating off the 66.48 line but never threatening long stops under here WTI has pushed 550 pips and more higher to 72.28 so far. It's a little overbought in the near term and looks like it will consolidate back to 70.69 and then bounce 150 pips or so - and then come back again, doing so 3 or 4 times before it pushes higher still. The overall trend is still positive and will remain so as long as 70.37 holds in the near term and at the worst the 69..48 line holds up on any retests from here. Swing traders can leave long stops below here and let it run for now towards 75.28 and eventually to 86.33 (which is the minimum upside target created by the reverse head and shoulders on last update).
TVC:USOILLong
by sumastardon
GDOW: Global Dow Step UpGDOW Global Dow (USD) Step Up The Dow Global has made a similar pattern to the Dow itself with a double bottom at 2970, the second bottom picking up the longer term parallel. Since then it's got itself trapped within the same triangle formation we see on the Dow, still using the lower parallel as ultimate support on down-side tests.Whilst it continues to do so the longer term trend remains in tact. This index has behaved in text-book fashion as the great rally progresses, with each decline being arrested by the previous high, and moving North in a series of steady steps. The next big test comes on the next touch of the falling dynamic (which defines the upper boundary of the triangle formation). At some point soon this challenge will arrive - even if it gets rejected again one more time this rejection is likely to be the last and should be short lived if we do see it happen first. Once it does so it should rally with all world markets to 3109 and consolidate there awhile. A break above 3110 would in turn be the next near term bull signal for world markets in general, opening the way for a rally back to the ATH at 3322. This has, so far at least, been a very reliable confirming back-up signal for other major markets across the globe. When it breaks higher it's therefore the confirming signal to get long of your local market too. We're looking at a 10% average rally across all major stock markets when it triggers. Yours might do even better ... Be lucky.
GLong
by sumastardon
1
The Reason Why YOU Are Fish Food For WhalesThe Reason Why YOU Are Fish Food For Whales That's exactly how most people react, who are greedy and don't understand the market. Once Bitcoin is in high, many think it would only go up. As soon as Bitcoin is in the deep, many think you could buy cheaper later. But mostly the opposite happens. You can see how easy you can become fish food for whales. You actually buy their expensive coins and later sell them cheap. Over time, you will lose more and more money until you end up with nothing left. That's when a bull market really starts. A tip: If you want to change something, think differently than others.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by EWHALE
17
BTCUSD Key Levels for Longs TodayBitcoin Coinbase Update 12:52gmt 07:52est Although it's rallied above the 8768 line and held the the little retest the rally from there has been very lame so far. Looks to be waiting for more buyers going into US open. They need to be there or this long shot will get stopped ...raising stop to 8810 as if it gets hit it will come back to the 8768 line again most probably. If so will look to buy again around there if stopped out at 8809. It will need some volume to arrive soon along with buying interest for this long to stay good from here. Bitcoin Update Coinbase 10:53gmt 05:53est Since making a high at 9763 and missing the upside target by fully 100 points - sorry for that, missed it by a country mile - Bitcoin has lost nearly 1200 points and is now resting on the lower parallel. But there is little interest showing right now, even at these lower levels. A safer potential long lies not far above here and it looks prudent to wait for better confirmation than we have right now as this continued lack of interest is making a long from here just too risky. It has to break back above the dynamic from the recent high to attract any more buyers. It's a safer buy/add only once it can achieve this, needing to break and hold above the 8768 line as it does so with stops below 8750 when broken above. Small spikes above and below price on the 15 minute chart shows the indecision here at the 8700 level On the downside Bitcoin has to break below 8600 to trigger further weakness/short back to 7760 and 7584 .
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
4