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DOGECOIN undergoing P&D - Advice to not fall for this scam.For novices out there, Pump and Dumps are NOT created to benefit you. It's a total scam, and you should never fall for this. The leaders of these P&D groups decide on which coin they are going to pump MONTHS in advance so they can buy the coin at a lucratively low price. Then, they "announce" what coin it is and when their thousands of followers go and buy those coins, they sell off part of their position due to the inevitable price spike and turn profit. You may ask, "Well, why can't I just sell my DOGE when they are pumping the price up?". This is because the buy volume isn't there to support the price, and you are NOT going to be able to sell your position at a good price. These sorts of things are designed to scam you out of your hard earned money, and you shouldn't fall for these kinds of scams just to "take the easy route". Make smart trades, think for yourself, and you'll be a much better off trader.
by yeeyee2020
33
Bitcoin BTCUSD Key break levels for this weekendBitcoin Weekend Update Lost the plot overnight with Bitcoin. It lost trck of the parallels but hasn't fallen away again to the lows but instead has made a good right shoulder at 13700 and has bounced . That is really positive overnight price action. In the process Bitcoinn has formed a reverse head and shoulders with the neckline at 14874 and a minimum upside measurement implication at 18631. We've just seen Bitcoin make a head and shoulders top with a downside minimum measurement target at 11391 (reached and exceeded by 240 odd points) - it will be interesting to see how it performs in reverse now. Bitcoin should rally to the necxkline at 14874 and pause ...this line is now the dividing line between bears on one side and bulls on the other. Tghus is the line in the sand that determines wheether Bitcoin has a great weekend ahead - or a depressing one, though the bigger parallel above should also present a problem ahead once that neckline is broken to the upside. Firstly though, Bitcoin has to break the neckline at 14874 and then it should move up to to test the parallel above it at around 15330 now - will likely recoil on first touch of the parallel and can then come back to the neckline agin to retest from above...must hold on that retest...then another attempt to breach the big parallel above ...and then once that's popped and broken through it should really begin to attract buyers again, moving higher to 15814, then 17229 and on up through the blue lines of resistance to 18631 minimum. Downside Potential Until the neckline is breached at 14874 Bitcoin is not out of the woods...the entire zone below here belongs to the bears now...they will try to force price under the neckline and to keep it there, knowing this and the parallel are their last lines of defense now. Would be better if this were France and not Russia in WW2 and the bears all ran away at the first shot. But that looks unlikely. If flat stay that way for now and await the break or can try for a short from the neckline when touched with stops just 50 points above - Bitcoin will remain vulnerable to tricks like this whilst unable to burst the neckline- and the longer it goes on the more likley it will fall away again...but if so must hold onto that right hand shoulder it's spent all night building in China at 14035 preferably and at 13500 at lowest on any declines from here...if it can do this it's still OK/bullish intent remains strong and will then make another attempt to break the neckline. Only if 13500 is broken will Bitcoin begin to look very vulnerable again, likely then to retest the lows which must hold at all costs today. Failure to do so will tip Bitcoin back into terrible technical trouble and likley force price all the way back to 10486 to begin with and then to 8324. But whilst the right hand shoulder stands firm on retests at 13500 Bitcoin is still overall positive. Look to buy the break of the neckline when it comes and close again on the test of the parallel above - then get ready to go long again when the upper parallel is broken on the upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
8
ETHUSD Opportunity knocks for next Bull PhaseETHUSD A fabulous weekend has developed into a terrible week for the Alts. This should create another fabulous buy opportunity over the coming 12 to 24 hours...and potentially lead into another good weekend ahead...if we can pick this up at lower levels without getting stopped out in the process. First support is nearby at 630 which if broken now should lead to further weakness back to 557-551 range (a good short when triggered). Ideally though, for bulls still wanting to get long here, ETH will plunge even lower, to 512 and maybe, if lucky right back down to the rising dynamic support at around 447 before bouncing strongly. It might not reach here, but we can still place orders in market at a coiuple of points above 447 and see if it gets struck. The 488-481 range is the other range to target as a potential antry zone for longs on any further weakness but any stops will have to remain below the 440 mark to keep from being hit...if you can handle the potential 9% downside from 481 there is 100% upside from 447. Look to buy over the next 24 hours, when the pips are really screaming. Need a plan and the courage to execute. The stage is set...let's see how close we can get to the bottom before committing to next long from here.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin BTCUSD Entry points for shorts: Clean chartBitcoin: BTCUSD Trading The Breakdown The massive head and shoulders top formation that has been building since the weekend highs has been completed today. Though quite loosely defined and with two potential neck-lines lying 300 points apart at 15814 and 15509 the pattern is undeniably bearish for the next 24 to 48 hours by look of the chart. But in very near term Bitcoin is staging a counter-rally which has taken it back to the upper neckline at 15814 where it's meeting resistance - it will now have to push on through here and hold up to trigger a further unwinding of shorts back up to 16447 and into the upper parallel before it crashes back down again. But whilst unable to beat 15814 and hold Bitcoin is vulnerable - a sell from 15800 with stops 60 higher for small loss if wrong and it can beat this level and hold - in which case it should rally a further 800 points to the upper parallel and then come off from there - so presenting a second chance to short from highest extreme likely with a stop about 80 points above the patrallel. So two chances to short from here. It should fall away from 15814 (and from 16447/upper parallel at highest) - to test 14040 at least and more likely 13086. The minimum downside target implied by the head and shoulders is 11391. The blue lines of support and then resistance have been working OK so far since the descent began - as usual a fall below any line by more than 25 points or so should lead to further weakness to the next. The new parallels guiding this descent are wide and strong - wider than any of the up-trends on the other side of this mountain. It's big. Obviously. The chart shows it clearly. Right now Bitcoin is making a little continuation pattern - under the neckline - it will fight at 15000 and just above - a lot of orders still determined to buy at this round number - but they are matched by equally determined sellers at 15814. Eventually the bears are likely to win...use any last rally up to 15814 as a selling opportunity with stops just 60 points higher for small loss if wrong, looking for a fall to 14035 initially, then lower still, as above. If not already short any break below 15000 by more than 10 points can be followed for a fall to 14040. And when this gives way another short opens up, this time to 13086. Or look to use this little rally attempt to sell from 15500 with stops 60 points higher *Stops - cannot be used in traditional manner with Bitcoin. You have to keep a stop number in your head and set an alert so if it comes within 50 points or so you get a notification and then have to watch to see price action: is it a spike down to your level and quickly bought back up or is it sticking... be cold, emotionless, machine-like. Easier said than done sometimes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
BTGUSD Buy this dip for rally back to highsBTGUSD BTG took over from BCH at around 11pm est - as BCH topped out BTG took on the baton and ran higher and higer for the next 5 hours as BCH headed back south. The patterns are similar on both charts, both tracking within a series of parallels, a sell off the top pair and and a buy off the lower pair. It's ahving a problem at 305 and looks like it has to unwind a little more before it can go again, ideally dipping back into the lower 2 parallels where it can be bought again ahead of a possible good weekend rally in prospect. Alternatively, buy on a break above the dynamic resistance line off the highs on a successful retest for rally back to highs BTG stays good overall whilst it holds the parallels and should continue to be bought on dips until we see the lowest parallel broken.
BLong
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin BTCUSD Watch out for potential Head and Shoulders hereBitcoin BTCUSD Update If you got long again at the ridiculous hour of 11.30 pm est you're hard working and deserve your 400 points reward. Weirdly the crypto chat room was quite quiet with a guy from London waiting for the BCH burst to top out so he could bail out and fade the consolidation. London's finally catching on. 2018 will be so fascinating and fast moving. It's good for competition, good for spreads and good for us therefore, in time. Now, finally people are taking BTC very seriously. So many Bitcoin jobs to be created now. How long for though? No one can answer that one for us but if anyone will know in advance it will be GS. And the chart. Until that day comes we ride this like nothing has ever been ridden before...in the entire history of speculation. Ever. We are alive for it. Wow Right now Bitcoin is trying to track huigher but is, weirdly, being contrained on the upside by an old parallel from way back in the mists of time (hell, it's 14 days old - that's 2 years in FB time!) - and yet it's clearly back in play once more, stopping the rallies. Another nice day in prospect for day traders but not much for others right now. It's trying to hold a newly forming little parallel off yesterday's lows and needs to keep holding up there or we have a danger of a head and shoulders forming here off the top, with a neckline at 15809 and a minimum downside target at 14210 if it gets broken. Time will tell but right now this is not a very strong pattern, except for day traders. Unless you look to short if head and shoulders gets completed later on, as above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
2
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update and stops for longsLatest Update 21.30 GMT We can by on a break of the dynamic holding back price off the highs - stop below the line...hope for a good clean break with enough powwer to break above the highs...if you go long just be careful at the highs....great if we see green candles beat it there...if it stutters and halts close down for small win and go again if and when the line is beaten Hope you were not put off by the messing all over the line after it was broken...look at the pin bar of desire/greed off the line? You could SEE this was beinning to look good here after 20 minutes of thrashing around ABOVE the line...a really good thorough test and it survived, no problem. You KNOW that price is irrelevant now, but it's still there in the back of your mind making you hesitiate. Forget everything you thought you knew about price. This is Bitcoin. It does not apply. Everywhere else in the investment universe price matters. Just not here. Only patterns matter here. Follow your chart or follow your heart. You must decide. It stays good whilst within the parallels. so stops just under lower line rising dynamically as the parallels rise above it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
1
BCHUSD: Vunerable below 1300 - sell here stop 10 points aboveBCHUSD Update Trading Strategies Today We were short from 1346 back to 1245-1228 range for a quick 100 point win but then reversed here according to the plan (top left) - we were looking for a wipe-out to 1286 and hena bounce back to the line above it on chart and then the big collapse. It went OK, but the low at this point was 1274 (so stops which were way too tight in a crazy fast market were hit for a 5 to 20 point loss and we missed a great trade back on the rebound as it duly whipsawed back up to 1349-1367 range with a great pin bar of rejection appearing as it attempted to break free of the parallel that still holds it back now - a clue that this is still unloved right now...so with TV down and no way of uploading we had a second chance there to short again...what a night for TV uploads to explode. This is so technically near-perfect (the new downtrend contained within the parallels is hardly perfect, but still feels right (but we know it's can be violated on upside and not be trustworthy, so not perfect here for sure)...will it stay that way for the finale? BTC still doesn't look finished on the downside yet. It's about to hit the upper parallel and can reach 1300 where it becomes a sell again, looking for the final flush out back to 1178 to 1123 range. Look to get long again in this range if struck later. Will likely be hectic and full of whipsaw potentially, nevertheless brave the storm and look to get long as low down as possibe in this range. Can set buy orders now, rather than in heat of battle, if it comes as expected to. Spread them across the range from 1178 down to 1123 with all stops below 1100. if not all struck be ready to add on break of upper parallel once the lows have been struck. Cannot trust a break above this upper paarllel that controls upside as we can see it's been broken through but never survived a retest, but still believe it will hold back this rally at 1299. Sell from here with stops 10 points plus above the parallel and look to buy back later, as above.
BShort
by sumastardon
ETHUSD Update Good for Day Traders, others look for lower entry ETHUSD Update Neutral in near term but still bearish whilst trapped under 440 Very interesting price action here: having sold at 468/9 we were waiting to see if ETH could hold up above the lower parallel...it tried so hard for a few hours but eventually it succumbed...failed breaks: remember the pyschology gone over in past posts...day traders are out almost immediately an ETH dives to find structure to left, losing the line at 446 like a hot knife through butter, finding support around the next line of support at 433/target level for bears to close out shorts with a low at 432 (mid structure here, so far) on the chart. Although day traders have bailed out some have bought back lower and others, bemused by the price action remain long...the pattern is confusing in the very near term at that point...bulls say it's cool, spike down, correction done, it's OK so long as 446 holds it up ...those looking at the bigger picture are not so sure ...we did the right thing to trap in profits close to the highs of the run: and not to get trapped at the 480 levels even though it was looking fine for a few hours before failing. It was OK to close out shorts at 433 too. But this pattern is not healthy now. ETH has not finished its rinse out by look of it. More stale bulls need taking out, still, before this is ready to rock again...it's till under pressure whilst unable climb back above 440 and hold up there...432 must hold now if ETH is to have a chance of stabilising here. Any failure here will tip ETH back into bear territory, forcing price lower to 418 and likely spiking as low as 410 before rallying back to 432/3. Annd if at any point 410 gives way by more than 3points look to shoort again on next pull back to 410 fr another decline to 385. Good trades here so long as we follow what the chart is telling us. Initial resistance at 439-440. Needs to break above here and hold before the bears will let go, then it should run up to 446-8 again and come off one more time from there. Good moves for day-traders here but for swingers and those looking to buy this at a good price it looks like we'll get a better chance from lower down if we wait, and not be tired by waiting, etc.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
2
XAUUSD: Gold Prepeare for Big short coming soonXAUUSD Gold Prepare for Big Short Soon Now Gold did get the brief bounce expected up to the first target at 1286 witha spike high at 1289 before recoiling again. Another 'reluctant' rally. Now it's back on support at 1274 and this time DXY is holding up and trying to turn around to the upside. It has not broken lower, but so far double bottomed - conflicting near term signals, which gold is likely to duplicate. And if the Dollar is bottoming now, it menas gold is likley topping here, not bottoming as the chart might suggest. That pin bar of rejection from 1289 is very ominous looking. No longer want to play chicken with gold by buying the lows...this looks like it will break to the downside soon. Any move below 1270 will confirm this - look to short back to 1260 in first instance (stop above 1272) and close out here for bounce, potentially as high as the underside of the dynamic support at 1270 again before recoiling once more. Then, if/when 1260 gives way short again aggressively down to 1204 with stops above 1262. Now have zero interest in upside for gold from here. If it rallies will not be following. End of now.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by sumastardon
BTGUSD Next Buy PointsBTGUSD Next Buy Points Well it got to 304, not as quickly as anticipated, taking a whole 20 hours or so to reach the upper parallel/target for a 34 point win in a tricky market, 2 points hy of the target, but the hit on the parallel was so good I'm claiming this one as a victory, imperfectly perfect, is all. So the next buy point here is around current values down to 287 with stops at 284, next below here will be 272 again if we see it. And the place to a to these will be on a break above the parallel...this will free BTG up to fly much higher if we see it and must be followed (usual drill on a breakout). If it can manage we have a realy good weekend in store here.
BLong
by sumastardon
1
GOLD: XAUUSD Trading Strategies for both sides of marketGOLD XAUUSD Strategies for both sides of market Gold is now delicately poised - to say the least. Am closing out the long at 1274.75 for just under 4 points as it looks like it can come back again to the lineof last support at 1270. This entire pattern all month looks like a continuation pattern, prior to gold crashing back to 1203 level. But gold has been playing chicken with the bears all month and it may still make one last rally on dollar weakness before falling away. Still think it will bounce off that little uptrend line one last time on dollar weakness so will be putting in an order for one last long attempt at 1270.5 with a stop 1.4 lower at 1269.1. If struck and then the stop goes too will reverse for fall to 1260 with stop above 1270. If we see this price action will close out and await what happens at 1260. That's the last line in the sand for bulls. If and when it caves in will look to short pretty much immediately with stops above 1270. Upside depends on DXY: it's plain to see from the shape of the pattern this month that no one really wants to buy gold, it's as if they only do because if they don't they do nothing instead, or worse, lose by being wrongside and staying stubborn. So this long is contrarian and low risk with a stop 1.4 points away if struck. It just needs to get through 1275 now and it should start to attract buyers - but there is resistance right here, so am taking the few points available and using them as stops on next trade, as above. and if it doesn't come back one last time from here will have to buy again above 1276 for another reluctant rally to 1286 at least, more likely to1297 and just maybe1305. This entire rally will depend on the Dollar falling. If it doesn't gold can't really rally. Hence both charts. Hope it's of some use in the coming days, whichever way gold jumps next. Good trades coming up here, though this might not be one of them!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by sumastardon
BTGUSD steady whilst it holds the trend lineBTGUSD BITCOIN GOLD DOLLAR The rally today is thin and grindingly dull, but it's steady. Better to be long with a stop under the little uptrend for the day than flat. But if at any point the day's supporting line is broken it will likely force price down 25 to 30 points to 340-330 range where it becomes a buy once more. This thing has already lost the protection of the bigger trend line which is now acting as resistance. It's not nearly as good looking as BCHUSD, but so long as the this new dynamic holds up it cannot be shorted, only bought, with stops below the parallel until the pattern changes and tells us to reverse.
BLong
by sumastardon
Litecoin LTCUSD Testing important resistance: raise stops againLitecoin/Dollar LTCUSD Litecoin Dollar LTCUSD Testing important resistance at the old highs and so far standing up well. Once again it needs buyers here to push it out of the reach of bears at current levels. Litecoin found buyers exactly where it needed them and has since pushed 5% or so higher. The longer term chart (left) shows price straining against the old high , but actually it's sitting right on top of it, trying to pin it down and use it as support. It's doing well so far but the shorter term chart shows price getting squeezed into a narrowing funnel where a decision has to be made quite soon now...it either pops above the upper dynamic and makes a run for 109 - amazing, but possible, even though it seems unlikely. The Dow and Nasdaq have done exactly that this year already, so it can't be dismissed as outrageous altogether. But, on the other side of the coin, there's also a 50/50 chance (probably 60-40%) that price will lose the support of the lower dynamic and then fall back to 89 at least.This wave of buying has seen 4 smaller waves running inside the funnel, each one getting smaller in size, which is hinting at potential exhaustion here, a natural place to encounter profit taking. Suggest raising the stop on longs to a little under the dynamic support if day trading, and increasing longs if the upper resistance line can be broken through and survive any retest. swing traders can keep their stops at 88 for now.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
DASHUSD Next Buy Points for break outDASHUSD DashDollar We got stopped out of the long from 305 at 599 which was cruel considering it bottomed at 596. Just bad stop management - should have lowered it to cover the lower parallel but didn't pay enough attention in truth, so busy with those other 3 favorite girlfriends to pay this enough time. Bad. And got punished for that lapse. Back on the trail: the continuation pattern is clearer now. There are two posible entry points here: 1. On a break of the upper parallel, confirmed by a push above the blue line above it at 638, looking to buy on the first minor pull-back with stops kept under the parallel. 2. But Dash is now in a vulnerable spot, trying to break above the old dynamic support line from the lows which is now acting as resistance...If this continues and Dash falls away from the old dynamic stopping it now there is a good chance it will fall back to 606-595 range again. If so look to buy here with stops below 590/adjusted to below the lower parallel, unlike the mistake made above, with a little luck. But if Dash can break above this old dynamic and then the resistance immediately above it, it would be a real show of strength. Follow it as per 1st option.
BITTREX:DASHUSD
by sumastardon
ETHUSD Next Buy Point: Flag Formation - againETHUSD Neutral but underlying still strong whilst working inside the flag Won't quit. It's spent the last few hours consolidating gains by hammering out another flag. Two strikes on the lower parallel shows this is still 'hot'. A buy of the lower parallel but close out at the upper parallel if day trading. A break above the upper parallel can be followed for next momentum break but be careful ...very whippy! (see last break of the last flag). IF at any point ETH loses the lower parallel of the flag it will start to unravel for a while. Don't buy rallies if this happens. Need to stand back awhile at that point if it happens. This shouldn't really revisit the lower parallel if it's to remain 'hot' from here
BITTREX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Clean Chart Waiting for dust to settle- no hurryBitcoin: BTCUSD Do the Math another way Whilst Bitcoin gyrates around and waiting for a clear pattern to emerge - no hurry - old bull mode, not young one - waiting for dust to settle - here's a review of yesterday's tough-won 2% gains. Today ETHUSD has been clearer, so wrote on that in interim. It's just a prettier chart right now, and more profitable too today, way better than Bitcoin, so far. So am waiting f or better signal here. In meantime, consider, please: If you can make 1% trading Bitcoin per day, just 1%, you will make 365% per year returns, buying Bitcoin three times over. Every year. Or you can buy and hold. Or both. One thing we learned last night was that support just above 7800 is still strong but that we need to keep stops under 7660 for now: we don't want these taking for they're the last nails in the freeezer lid - the stops for long term holds at 7717. Frustrated by the timings of Bitcoin's gyrations. If only it would sleep. It was right to accept defeat at 8175 yesterday and look for shorts. The long was a waste of time, losing around 10 points on entry at 8175 and on exit on break of the dynamic underpinning the day's lows. But sometimes it's OK to admit defeat if that's what the chart is telling us to do. We could have been hopefully/stubbornly long still had the chart not shown us that bears were beginning to smell blood after such a weak rally in low volume conditions..at least we saw it coming and so day traders cannot have been the wrong side of this - but the levels where it was expected to bounce, 7938 and 7803, proved useless in the scheme of things. The low was 7876, some 73 points away from the ideal buy point. Rubbish Totals Apart from a very fast 100 points short early yesterday and then a very slow 10 point loss on the long (all day, it seemed, as Bitcoin took a rest at Thanksgiving too) followed by shorts back to 8060 from 8165 for 100 points quick profit and then a second short from this level with stops above profits were hard to come by yesterday...and short from 8060 is where it went wrong due to having the stop way too tight - my fault: if I'd kept to usual 50 points this short back to the next level at 7938 at least would have been good. Right call, Dumb stop. Are you learning too, would be reassuring to know that some of you are actually reading this never-ending saga. So 200 points of short profits coulda/woulda/shoulda been 320 but for a stop. So that was mistake 1. Stupid stop Next was an admittedly 'speccy' buy at the small double bottom at 7990 for an immediate 15 point loss followedby another 20 point loss after a buy at 8210. So the last 24 hours including today's loss have yielded only 180 or so points, maybe 300 if you were more sensible than I was with a 50 point stop, not 20. So maybe 2%+. On a bad day. So if you can make that on a bad bad day it is quite possible to make 1% on a good day. If just less than one in three days yield 1% returns and th either two were to cancel themselves out between wins and losses it would be very hardwork and very tiresome, but would still yield a rough 100% return on capital each year. So far in the past month we have taken over 3850 points from Bitcoin long and short and got some bagged up in the freezer too...maybe. Those 3850 are REAL points. Whether Bitcoin is or not doesn't really matter. The only thing that matters here is points. Right? Buy Bitcoin. Sell Bitcoin. So long as it moves, it doesn't matter. Isn't that the sanest way to view this phenomenon right now ? More when the situation stabilises.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
GE: Next buy points for counter-rallyGE Next Buy Points We never got a chance for a long down by the lows, but we did get the next one: the break above the small parallels channelling the tiny corrective move yesterday and Monday. It was a really good, painless/stress-free break too. So now, after GE filled a small gap (left on chart) it's coming back to support at 18.07 (tweaked by a couple of pips) and should hold up there and bounce again (low risk entry point with stops below 18.00 . If so, The next challenge should be at 18.46 (take profits) - we know that each of the last three pathetic rally attempts have all been 100 pips...which is exactly where 18.46 lies...then we only go long again once we can see 18.50 has been broken on upside, looking for 19.36 where look to close (just under here) and some may then wish to short with stops above. More as this develops. Better than Bitcoin today too! Old V new. Today the old won. There are some good trades here, between the lines - and so much less stressful than Bitcoin. For a quiet, steady calm trade GE wins hands down, no contest. Depends on your profile.
NYSE:GELong
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Is Bitcoin becoming respectable at last?Bitcoin: BTCUSD Is Bitcoin becoming Respectable? Bitcoin has been surprisingly quiet around the highs at 8000. There is no real selling. Any Goldmans whales selling from 8000 have been overpowered but the buying surge out of China hasn't materialised as yet. Instead Bitcoin is moving sideways, every sale being quickly accumulated but lacking enough buying power to push higher in the near term. It can carry on moving sideways for a while yet, trying to build a new base at 8000. Although disappointing so far, Bitcoin is beginning to behave like a regular stock now. The Noah Cross quote from Chinatown springs to mind: " 'Course I'm respectable. I'm old. Politicians, ugly buildings and whores all get respectable - if they last long enough." Maybe we can add Bitcoin to that list soon, too. Bitcoin respectable? It's certainly beginning to act that way. So it's quiet, verging on respectable, moving sideways in a holding pattern as every sale is quickly absorbed. Those big bear attacks from 8000 have failed. They've realised they can't fight this thing, not at 8000 anyway. It should continue to grind higher again to 8087 and then move sideways to try to build a base at 8000...it needs to turn this level from near term resistance into support over the coming hours because if it can't find the power to do this it will drift away to 7900 and look for support here and down to 7855. There's more support building just below here, at 7798 (minor) and then major support at 7717-7700 freezer lid levels. Whilst above here Bitcoin belongs to the bulls. But it needs to clamber above 8000 and hold to avoid drifting sideways from here for a while longer. Day traders can use the the little dynamic supporting this move as an exit for longs but it's tricky with such wide spreads - (wouldn't it be good if Goldmans actually did start a Bitcoin desk, forcing others to join too, bringing competition to spreads and driving down margins and making day-trading so much easier ? Any comments?) - if it loses the dynamic it will fall back to 7900 but the spread makes it untradeable. So, Bitcoin is positive above 8000 and neutral whilst under this level, the likely pivot point of the day, and whilst unable to regain that level and hold up there it's likely to trade sideways/down using 7900 down to 7855 as support before grinding higher once more. Stay long, stay patient. A break and hold above 8000 is the price action bulls need now. Now that would be respectable.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
CRB Index: TRJEFFCRB Useful Back-up for Gold and Oil tradersCRB Index Commodities Index: TRJEFFCRB The CRB index - Back-up Confirmation for Gold and Oil Trades. It's useful to know which way the greater wind blows before setting sail. This wind is with the bulls and has been off and on since June. It's making a nice trend of its own, grinding away each bear in its path until 195.62 is reached - up about 2.5% from here. Do not consider shorting gold, oil, silver or copper aggressively until 195.62 is reached on this index, except near term scalping raids which will carry wiith them all the risks associated with trading against a trend. Even the deftest of scalpers will need their A game to make much from shorting, and will likely have to move fast to bag any profits. Any bears with a medium term view are going to get crushed. Can therefore only turn aggressively bearish of Oil once the lower parallel channelling this impulse wave is broken on downside. Then you know the greater wind is turning and it's finally time to change tack and start selling rallies again. This index has a look of latent strength behind it - 195.62 will not hold it back for long. Once passed it will rally another 5 points or a firther 2.5% to 203.6. Then look for the wind to change and at least a 2.5% fall back to 195.6 again. Get this medium to longer term idea of push and pull and you can make some very good returns. Good trading to the 3 wise men who bother to read such arcane research. You will do well. Never so sure about the rest though...
TVC:TRJEFFCRBLong
by sumastardon
Brent Crude Oil: UKOIL Trade Set-ups for this weekBrent Crude OIL UKOIL Trade Set-Ups for this Week Position: Flat - Just didn't trust this short after it bounced at 61.70 first target and then started to build a near term low at 61.33 so closed out the short for just over 100 pips after spreads, as per updates to last comment. Disappointed at the time to close out a trade that had stopped behaving according to expectations. Not so disappointed now though. Brent is now testing the original break-down level at 62.88 after a high one pip higher on Friday. The zone between 62.88 and 63.10 is a treacherous range, full of uncertainty and potential whipsaw - a difficult spot to trade...it should fall away from here, but that behaviour at the highs doesn't look bearish except in very near term: a tiny flag is forming and Brent can be shorted here with a stop above the upper parallel, all the way back down to the lower parallel where the position should be reversed on the first touch, flipping back long again here, with stop 30 pips below the line. The ideal entry back long would be at 62.30 with stops 30 pips under. Continuation patterns like the last one - and potentially this one too - usually only have two touches on the lower parallel before moving higher, the second touch coming quite late in the pattern, and ideally, for bulls looking for clues, leaving a few pin bars off the lows (see last continuation pattern for comparison). So it's a buy on the next touch of that lower small parallel (stop 30 pips under) for a move back to 62.88-63.10 where look to close out if this trade works out. Then look to see if Brent can start to build a base at 62.88 as we move through Monday into Tuesday... We need to watch out this week coming for any such price action and follow with longs again if we see it develop, looking for another move up to 64.16-64.25 range initially and thereafter back to the upper parallel once 64.30 has been broken on the upside. Good idea to split this into two trades. On the downside, first support for Brent is that small lower parallel creating the near term flag - at around 62.26 if hit early on Monday morning in far East and as low as 62.04 if it comes later in the day - but there should be only one direct hit, as with the last pattern and ideally it will leave pin bars on the 1 hour chart. All bullish indicators that can be used to prepare new longs. Barring a brief shake out from currrent levels, as above, Brent will have to move below 62 to flip back into serious bear territory from here, triggering aggressive shorts down to 61.70 at least, and potentially to 61.33. But whilst that little flag holds, upside is more likely this week coming.
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon