Get started

FOR

FTSE 100: UK100 Nice impulse wave down - great for day-tradersFTSE 100 UK100 FTSE's made fine double top spread out over 5 months, quite a big one therefore. Since then it's got itself into a well defined impulse wave which day traders are clearly loving, sending a series of point perfect buy and sell signals all the way down, pretty much. This index remains in the grip of the bears until it can break free of the upper parallel. They look capable of driving it down to 7295 at least if not to 7195 again. It's in a very weak near term technical position whilst below fixed resistance at 7383 and still trapped within the impulse wave. Only by moving up above 7383 and then breaking free of the upper parallel will the bear-spell be broken - stops above the parallel for shorts, looking to sell more on each test of the upper parallel until the target is achieved
FX:UK100Short
by sumastardon
GOLD: XAUUSD All about the dollar nowGold/USDollar XAUUSD It's all about the dollar for now Sometimes gold is a fabulous market to trade - when it gets itself in a trend that traders can see glinting at them off their screens the impulse waves it goes on to form are some of the best in any market (except Brent Crude which wins top spot for powerful, tradeable impulse waves, see today's comment)Right now is not one of those golden moments. Gold is a really difficult, choppy market, great for day traders but not so good for swingers. The first point is to recognise that with no real wave to power it gold is consequently aimless, taking a random walk on a northward bearing and very much against its will, judging by the pin bars studding the uncertain zone between the 3 blue lines on the chart. It's now powered from underneath by ongoing dollar weakness from here, (see DXY comment today). You can see from the chart that gold doesn't really want to go up, that traders are pretty bearish, or certainly were until DXY fell out of bed in London this morning...But DXY is already testing the first target at 93.99 after a low at 93.97 and should make a feeble rally (as per comment) before falling away again. Once 93.97 gives way on DXY It should fall to to 92.6 at least, so another 1.5% from here. Look to buy dips in gold (and if you're experienced you'll already be using DXY chart as confirmation of when to distribute and when to accumulate) because with at least 1.5% and quite possibly 3% to come in dollar weakness gold will keep defying the bears over the next few weeks. It's on support right now at 1278 and unlikely now to dip much lower. Only on a break below the trend line supporting the recent lows will the underlying resilience of gold be shattered - a fabulous downtrend should re-emerge as a consequence, driving price down to 1205. But until that happens, it's tricky. No trend except a seemingly grudging reaction upwards to dollar weakness. Go with it for now. No point in fighting this yet. And if you're looking to trade a trending market right now, try Brent (or check today's comment). They don't call it sweet crude for nothing.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Bitcoin: BTCUSD This should stay fluid for a while yet, giving day traders a great space to trade in... a break below 6000 for a move back to 5747 (can take 200 or so points on that long from 10 minutes ago now if you want...just trade from line to line shown on the chart...we're looking for a double bottom today to sjow loss of downward momentum and give a chance of getting long...swing traders too look for a double bottom. Bitcoin ain't dead or even dying. Opportunity knocks today. we gotta answer the door. More as it develops.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
6
Bitcoin BTCUSD Next support approaches for day-tradersBitcoin Update Although it's now testing the next line of support at 6312, unless a day trader would advise to stay short lloking for a test of the lower parallel. Some day traders will close out here looking for a decent counter rally back to the last support/new resistance at 6425, though the old trend line, now at 6390 may now prove so toxic that any rally is stopped dead here, on the underside of the old dynamic medium term support line. For others, stay short for test of the lower parallel...if we don't see a rally from 6312 it should happen around 1pm est, but if we get a rally first that will be delayed some. If it does rally from 6312, others looking to short this who have missed part of the ride can look to get on at 6420 if seen.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Decision time for day tradersBitcoin BTCUSD Decision to make here for day traders and others if running a decent profit today Trying to hold up off a tiny line of support that once broken should lead to an acceleration to downside and help achive the minimum downside target at 6312....so tricky here with spreads...if short and day trading from th sell point at 6943 we should be oK, but some might consider a stop not too far above 6830 to trap in 100 points or so ..it can whip back higher to the break level at 6943 one last time, potentially...it's not easy to decide with spreads so wide, though. Whilst below 6943 it's still in a bad way but if continues to hold at the lows it's obviously running out of short term sellers and can stage a quick counter rally. Alternatively a take profits now at the lows but be ready to short again hard on a break below 6700 aiming for 6312 minimum downside target
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
NAS100: NASDAQ 100 Looking positive for week aheadNasdaq 100 Index NAS100 Nasdaq throws a lot of similar shapes to Bitcoin whose consolidation periods tend to last a few hours and no longer than 2 days maximum, but here the continuation patterns last a minimum of 2 days (last one) and more usually 8 days and up to a month. But the shapes are almost identical. Fast, sharp declines over 2 days, followed by an immediate rally into new high ground are a sign of a very strong market, usually a confirmation signal of further strength ahead. In addition, the pattern carved out on the chart over the past week is a clear flag formation with a minimum upside measurement target at 6472, and could easily extend further to 6515. Look to get long for the early part of this week at least: Initial support begins at the recent high at 6282-0. Whilst it can hold up here this index is extremely positive...so long as this level holds tomorrow Nasdaq is expected to have a stellar week ahead. It's a buy with stops under 6275 for a 20 point loss if wrong. Or wait for the open on Monday to see that 6275 holds up first...but it may have gapped up by then. If so follow it, though with stops still below 6275. And if this trade goes wrong and 6275 fails to hold at any point between now and the open it's likely to drift further and then perhaps come off on the open to 6246 (at lowest a spike to the upper parallel just below here) before rallying strongly again. That looks to be worst case scenario, which looks less likely than a gap up as things stand right now. One other way to enter the trade is to put a buy order in at 6283 and hope it gets struck overnight with a tight stop 11-15 points under for small loss if wrong but 200 to 300 - points upside if right. If it gets stopped out look to re- enter again around the open on any further weakness in the first 5 to 30 minutes, ideally towards 6246 and a tad lower - but this is only likely if 6282-6275 gives way. Don't think it will for what it's worth...let's see For more on Positive 16 Year Cycle: Dow-and-S-P-500-DOWI-SPX500-Super-long-term-Chart-and- analysis/
FX:NAS100Long
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Last chance for low risk entry approachingBitcoin: BTCUSD Last chance for low risk entry coming up See how the old (now dead) rising support line is still trying to kill anything that comes near it? It's still toxic... You can see why day traders are wary of it, especially as it coincides with fixed overhead supply at the same 7350 level. (This stuff takes too long to write and too damn often what I think is about happen, HAS hapened by time it's finished ...very trying, especially as Bitcoin moves between 10 times and 1000 times faster than any other instrument on the planet. It was already on crack. Now it's doing steroids too. It's Jaws on crack and steroids and we've got it on the hook...maybe If you were slick enough to get long lower maybe you were slick enough to exit too??? If not, it's OK. We need to move away from that old toxic rotting line of rising support/new resistance, the left-overs from an old trail, to stay in outlaw-chasing mode....well there's not much selling going on from 7350 so far...ideally Bitcoin will trade sideways to down for a while and start to build support off 7260-7245 range and from there start to rise again. Look to buy/add from this range if tested. Will still be using a tight stop though just below 7220 just in case that old resistance line proves to be so strong it''s unsurmountable. If it gets struck, the risk is about 50 points. The potential reward is incalculable at present. It's the only financial instrument in the world you can say that about. Everything else has it's value, pretty much. Good luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
3
DXY: Dollar bulls building pin bars ahead of next rallyDXY: Dollar Index DXY is up and down like Harvey Weinstein's pants. But those series of pin bars forming over the course of this week shows serious support for the dollar at 94.41. This whipsaw can persist a little longer and cause havoc with positions (as in Gold, and across the pairs) and it's why it helps to keep an eye on this chart if trading any pair against USD. DXY continues to unwind the overbought conditions of last week by moving sideways between 94.82 short term resistance and 94.41 short term support...but those pin bars are showing that ulimately the break will be to the upside. Intend to keep accumulating Dollar longs on each test of 94.41 and increase once 94.90 has been broken on next minor pull-back towards 94.80.
TVC:DXYLong
by sumastardon
EURUSD: Closing out short here for small 22 pip profitEURUSD Update Friday Currently Short EUR on this pair from 1.1657 as per last comment but it's not going very well. Fed news was dovish enough to give the pairs some respite, for now at least. Today's low is above yesterday's and it's enough to give the pairs a lift back to 1.16652 again and destroy the 23 pips profit if not taken now. This gives us 23 pips (of stops) to play with for the next trade So am closing out the short at current values (1.1636) and going flat across all the pairs for now to take what few profits are still left on the shorts. Still believe USD has much further to rise but have to accept, looking at price action over last 24 hours, that it probably won't be this week now. Therefore prefer to flatten out across the all pairs and await next clear signal
by sumastardon
IBEX Index: Last chance to get long for 1346 points updsideIBEX Index: IBEX 35 Going well so far after breaking above 10460-10470 overhead supply. Minor resistance at 10600 but it shouldn't come back much below 10550 now (stops under here by 20 pips or so) so giving another chance to get long here with a small loss if wrong. It should rally to 10761 once 10600 is broken through, consolidate a little there and then rally further to 11168 - and then after another bout of consolidation to 11576 and then, last push to 11888 target. About 1346 points upside and around 20 points downside from here.
TVC:IBEX35Long
by sumastardon
USDJPY Trade set-ups for this week's Fed outcomeUSDJPY A battle royale is raging between these two heavyweights, caught between the lines of near term support and resistance shown on the chart. The fight could go on until Thursday at this rate when one of those two lines should finally give way... It's OK to buy at 113 (with a stop no more than 20 pips away) but would still go flat again at 114.30-114.50 as it's now become such a big level, where fixed resistance frrom a triple top meets the dynamic resistance line falling from the highs. Not looking to short again from 114.3 because DXY is saying the break, when it comes, should be in favour of the Dollar, not the Yen. Therefore unless daytrading this pair needs watching over, awaiting the break (whichever way it comes) for the next worthwhile swing trade... Upside break for USD: USD needs to break above 114.3-114.5 to rout the bears and trigger a flurry buy stops and fresh buy orders just above here - a very bullish outcome - breaking through tough converging lines of overhead resistance in the process. This would create a medium term upside target at 118.1-118.6 for swing traders and a nearer term upside target at 115.3-115.6 for day traders. USD will be likely to fall away again from here, coming back to test 114.5-114.3 range one last time before rallying towards 118. Downside Break for USD: A break below 112.85 (first trade) should result in a fast test of 111.73 - then, only when 111.50 gives way can a more a prolonged period of dollar weakness be expected back to 108-107 range (second short trade) - ideal for swing traders, if we see it. Either way, there should be some good trades emerging over next 48 hours on this pair. Consider setting alerts for either eventuality...
by sumastardon
DXY: Get ready for a strong Dollar rally Tuesday from 94DXY: Looks like DXY should come back down to 94.28 at least and to 94 at most on Tuesday (well it could spike a few pips lower to test the lower parallel at lowest) before it and all Dollar pairs bottom out and start what should become a very powerful bounce...so get ready to start to building Dollar long positions across all Dollar pairs Tuesday as close to 94 on DXY as possible. Stops just below the lower parallel. Good trading
TVC:DXYLong
by sumastardon