Gone are the days of passive investing, but...Gone are the days of passive investing, but mid-term trading could be the solution.
The term passive investing was first made famous by Warren Buffet, who once said, 'If I like a stock, I will hold it forever.' However, in recent years, he has been seen cutting losses on his wrong decisions and taking profits when he finds the time is right. The dynamic of the markets have changed, and he has adapted to them.
Technical Reasons -
From the chart, it's clear that the days of passive investing are behind us. We can refer to the Dow Jones or S&P Index; they provide similar readings as Nasdaq, although Nasdaq has a shorter history.
Since the beginning of 2022, the great volatility started with a year of bearishness. In my opinion, this could be a start of a long-term bear. What we are seeing in 2023 rally, possibly a bear retracement.
Let’s support my analysis with the fundamental factors.
3 Fundamental Reasons –
• Why did the decades of long-term growth, forming a linear bull market, come to an end at the beginning of 2022?
This is because it marks the beginning of long-term inflationary pressure that we all have to contend with. To counter inflation, one of the most effective measures is to raise interest rates. As we all know, higher interest rates bring challenges to businesses and stock markets.
Please take note of the timing. Inflation first exceeded 2% in April 2021, and since then, it has been on an upward trend, something unprecedented in the last 40 years. However, the Federal Reserve only began raising interest rates in March 2022, while the markets peaked at the beginning of 2022.
Consumer Price Index
Feb 21 1.68%
Mar 21 2.66%
Apr 21 4.15%
May 21 4.94%
Jun 21 5.34%
Jul 21 5.27%
Aug 21 5.21%
Sep 21 5.39%
Oct 21 6.24%
Nov 21 6.83%
Dec 21 7.10%
Jan 22 7.53%
Feb 22 7.91%
Mar 22 8.56%
Apr 22 8.22%
May 22 8.52%
Jun 22 9.00%
• Why did the market turn bullish in 2023.
Many attribute the rally to AI, but it goes beyond that. By the end of 2022, the market was still hovering around its lowest point. However, as seen in the inflation numbers below, there was a gradual decline from 9% in June 2022 to 6.5% in December 2022, creating a divergence between this positive news and the market's performance. At that point, I was preparing for a bear rebound or retracement. Of course, the inflation number continued its decline to 3.2% in October 2023, and the rally has continued until now.
Continue Price Index
Jun 22 9.00%
Jul 22 8.50%
Aug 22 8.30%
Sep 22 8.20%
Oct 22 7.70%
Nov 22 7.10%
Dec 22 6.50%
• Why have the days of passive investing come to an end?
Unless inflation can back down to 2% in a sustained manner, we should expect to see much more volatile markets in many years to come. Traders welcome volatility but not investors.
There are reasons why back down to 2% in a sustained manner is unlikely to happen. Please leave me a comment, I hope to exchanges ideas with you.
E-mini Nasdaq Futures and Options:
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $5.00
Code: NQ
Micro E-mini Nasdaq and Options:
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $0.50
Code: MNQ
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Forcast
Weekly Forecast with ranges Nasdaq Futures has closed the day and the week very strong with high volume.
I have identified the target range for the next week. Monday will be very silent as there is no big news. But the other days have all the big news with PPI and CPI data release, so there are very high chances of Nasdaq futures testing the target range and then chopp around on the Data release for the entire week. If Inflation data comes in very strong, then prepare for the downside. But as of now we are looking to slowly chop and go higher.
COOTTON📊 COTTON
⏱ TIME: 1W
📝It is reaching very important areas for spot purchases, and you can make purchases in a gradual and managed manner. It has also been checked for fundamental analysis and is a sustainable and strong project for the future.
⭕️risk: LOW
📍buy market:89 $
📌TP1: 104 $
📌TP2: 116 $
📌TP3: 124 $
📌TP4: 150 $
⛔️SL: 74.5$
XAUUSD📊 #XAUUSD
⏱ TIME: 1D
📝It is reaching very important areas for spot purchases, and you can make purchases in a gradual and managed manner. It has also been checked for fundamental analysis and is a sustainable and strong project for the future.
⭕️risk: low
📍The initial buying limit: 1850$
📍The second buying limit: 1813$
📍The third buying limit: 1734$
📌TP1: 1883 $
📌TP2: 1975 $
📌TP3: 2060 $
📌TP4: 2328 $
❌These analyzes are just to give a better perspective for you dear ones
Do not base on buying and selling❌
NZDCAD📊 #NZDCAD
⏱ TIME: 1H
📝It is reaching very important areas for spot purchases, and you can make purchases in a gradual and managed manner.
⭕️risk: high
📍The initial selling limit: 0.80818 $
📌TP1: 0.80650 $
📌TP2: 0.80447 $
📌TP3: 0.80150 $
📌TP4: 0.79640 $
⛔️SL:0.81044 $
❌These analyzes are just to give a better perspective for you dear ones
Do not base on buying and selling❌
CADCHF📊 #CADCHF
⏱ TIME: 1D
📝It is reaching very important areas for spot purchases, and you can make purchases in a gradual and managed manner.
📍The initial sell limit: 0.68070 $
📍The second sell limit:0.69260 $
❌These analyzes are just to give a better perspective for you dear ones
Do not base on buying and selling❌
EURAUD📊 #EURAUD
⏱ TIME: 15MIN
📝It is reaching very important areas for spot purchases, and you can make purchases in a gradual and managed manner.
⭕️Risk: mid
📍The initial buying limit: 1.65566 $
📍The second buying limit: 1.65196 $
📌TP1: 1.64728 $
📌TP2: 1.64119 $
📌TP3: 1.63662 $
⛔️SL: 1.66163$
❌These analyzes are just to give a better perspective for you dear ones
Do not base on buying and selling❌
Bitcoin prediction in 15 minutes time frameIs there certainty in the market?
Which category do you belong to? Yes or no
I believe there is certainty in the market and you just have to discover it.
Bitcoin will definitely lose the price floor of $30,000 and fall.
(Of course, this drop is only to get the energy of the big pump)
But which area is better for trading shorts????
I take risk on the red box according to the left of the chart.
"Not financial advice"
MASKUSDT📊 #MASKUSDT
⏱ TIME: 1D
📝It is reaching very important areas for spot purchases, and you can make purchases in a gradual and managed manner. It has also been checked for fundamental analysis and is a sustainable and strong project for the future.
📍The initial buying limit: 3.660 $
📌TP1: 4.74 $
📌TP2: 5.84 $
📌TP3: 7.19 $
❌SL: 3.04 $
DXY forecast on Weekly time frameIn the end, the reins of all markets are in the hands of the great devil "dollar".
We must check the dollar index for this analysis of all markets so that we can understand where the market maker wants to take us.
In my personal opinion, the recent drop in the dollar index is only fuel for the big pump, which will eventually fall into the hands of this cunning devil.
I am checking for the exact area to finish this refueling and start moving but
In the long term, I am certain that the dollar index will cross 115.
"Not financial advice"
Ethereum forecast on daily time frameEthereum also helps Bitcoin to burn market liquidity.
In the daily time frame, Eth is getting ready for a pump fake to attract the attention of all crypto enthusiasts and be a driving engine for altcoins.
But the whole market is preparing for the day of the accident
After finishing this rally fake and big scam, I know the $700 price channel is available for Eth.
BITCOIN📊 #bitcoin
⏱ TIME: 1d
📝After the floor that we considered for Bitcoin, it activated our order and it has yielded about 26% until now (linked analysis).
But now it has reached a resistance range where I expect it to suffer from here or the downward pressure will enter and have a short-term correction. I have written the important ranges for the price return.
📍The initial : 38000 $
📍The second : 32000 $
BITCOIN📊 #BTCUSDT
⏱ TIME: 4H
📝The price is reaching its own descending channel floor and also approaching two strong support levels that have been previously established. These two levels intersect with the ascending trendline in the medium term. There is a possibility of a short-term upward movement from this range.
A DEEP TECHNICAL DIVE ON 2023 BTCTECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Overall, we anticipate a short-term bearish market trend for Bitcoin, with a potential bearish bias before a potential upward movement, likely occurring towards the end of 2023.
Below, I present the key point of interest, where I would consider initiating long or short trades based on the prevailing market conditions at that time.
Additionally, the chart below illustrates the potential reactions that can be expected at said point.
Once the price reaches this area, I will employ a combination of the RSI indicator to assess market momentum, and the Lorentzian classification algorithm to determine entry points. While it is evident that the market will already be bearish at that stage, I prefer to witness a pullback after the price closes below the trendline before entering a bearish trade. This pullback could range from a retracement of 20% to 100%. Within this range, I will be prepared to initiate a short position once the specified conditions are met, relying on a sell signal generated by the aforementioned indicators or any other technical confirmation.
For a more accurate assessment, let us shift our focus to the 4-hour timeframe. Here, we observe that we are presently within a bearish channel. However, I anticipate a temporary retracement to the upside before resuming the downward movement. This expectation is supported by the fact that we are approaching slightly oversold conditions on the daily timeframe. Nevertheless, it is important to note that I maintain an overall bearish outlook on this timeframe as well. I emphasize my predictions accordingly.
Additionally, it is worth noting the presence of a significant wick on the 4-hour timeframe originating from the downside. This particular region could potentially serve as a point of rejection, contributing to the current market conditions we are experiencing.
If you are looking to trade the pullback this would be a good time to go long once he 4H candle closes and the oscillators are still oversold on the 4H timeframes.
As far as technical sentiment goes across all indicators we can see that we have a number of indicator showing a bearish trend however the oscillators are mostly neutral. Which is a good sign meaning that there is still room for the market to push down without any retracements.
FUNDUMENTAL OUTLOOK
Based on the most recent fundamentals above I conclude the following below.
🔹Bearish Sentiment:
Declining Active Wallets: The number of active Bitcoin wallets, both for sending and receiving funds, has been decreasing significantly since mid-April. This trend suggests a decline in user activity and may indicate that rising fees associated with Bitcoin transactions are discouraging users from engaging with the network.
Rising Fees: The hype surrounding BTC NFTs and BRC-20s has contributed to increasing fees for interacting with the Bitcoin network. Higher fees can deter users from conducting transactions and lead to a decrease in overall network activity.
🔹Bullish Sentiment:
Increased Transactions: The number of daily Bitcoin transactions has grown by 89% from mid-April to mid-May, indicating a surge in activity. This growth can be attributed to the recent BRC-20 craze and the implementation of native solutions for NFTs and issuable tokens on the Bitcoin network.
Weakening Correlation with Ethereum: Bitcoin's correlation with Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has reached its weakest point since two years ago. This suggests that the price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum are becoming increasingly non-correlated. Some analysts interpret this as investors considering Ethereum an emerging market after its transition to PoS, while Bitcoin is seen as a hedge asset.
Overall, the analysis suggests a mixed sentiment for Bitcoin. While increased transaction activity and the weakening correlation with Ethereum may indicate some bullish factors, the decline in active wallets and rising fees contribute to a bearish sentiment. It is important to consider additional market factors and conduct further analysis to make a more comprehensive assessment.
MATIC📊 #MATICUSDT
⏱ TIME: 1D
📝It is reaching very important areas for spot purchases, and you can make purchases in a gradual and managed manner. It has also been checked for fundamental analysis and is a sustainable and strong project for the future.
📍The initial buying limit: 0.7 $
📍The second buying limit: 0.63 $
📍The third buying limit: 0.47 $
📌TP1: 1.55 $
📌TP2: 2.9 $
📌TP3: 5.53 $
📌TP4: 12 $