Get started

Forecasts

Nokia may be worth nibbling as it approaches supportFactset, an agency that polls analysts, released a newsletter today titled "S&P 500 NOW PROJECTED TO REPORT A YOY DECLINE IN EARNINGS IN Q1 2020." The newsletter shows that analyst estimates of S&P 500 earnings have fallen from an expected 7% growth rate in Q1 to an expected -0.1% growth rate, and they're still coming down. However, the newsletter also breaks things down by sector, and when you slice it that way, things look more complicated. The hardest hit sectors are materials, industrials, and consumer discretionary, all poised for double digit earnings decline. A few sectors are still poised for earnings growth in Q1, including communication services, with a 13+% growth rate. Information technology and utilities come in second and third place, with projected growth over 5%. Also set to grow are healthcare and real estate. Now, earnings expectations likely will continue to decline, and even the outperforming sectors will fall with the rest of the market. But the outperforming sectors will start to find support sooner, and they will get outsized bounces when the market rallies. I don't suggest putting a lot of money here just yet, but it's worth taking a few nibbles at attractively valued companies in these sectors. Nokia has support from about $3.30-3.50. The company has an attractive PEG of about 0.73, and it's been signing lots of deals lately in connection with the rollout of 5G. It plunged after suspending its dividend last year, but as the company recovers I think we could see the dividend return.
NYSE:NOKLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
7
A note of caution as SPY reverse RSI flashes a sell signalOn January 2, I predicted that the SPY would rip higher because of extremely strong earnings and revenue growth forecasts for 2020. It's still true that analyst projections are high: Q1 earnings growth of 5.0% and revenue growth of 4.4%, and Q2 earnings growth of 6.6% and revenue growth of 4.9%. That compares to just 0.3% earnings growth for the entire year in 2019. However, I'd like to sound a note of caution as the SPY struggles at a resistance level: namely, that it's pretty overvalued right now. According to FactSet, "The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 18.3. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average of 16.7 and above the 10-year average of 14.9. It is also above the forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.8 recorded at the end of the third quarter (September 30). Since the end of the third quarter (September 30), the price of the index has increased by 9.4%, while the forward 12-month EPS estimate has increased by 0.2%." The high P/E multiple isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, because securities tend to trade at a high P/E when earnings expectations are strong. However, the risk here is that the index could quickly come down from this high P/E multiple if expectations weaken or if a lot of companies start to miss the analysts' raised expectations. In my opinion, it's risky to buy the S&P 500 at this valuation. Now is a good time for value investing-- finding solid, undervalued, dividend-paying stocks and ETFs the market has ignored. Sectors worth looking at: Analysts see the most upside for 2020 in the energy sector, with 66% of companies in this sector having a buy rating. Utilities posted absurdly strong earnings last quarter, especially in the clean and renewable energy segment. This segment looks pricey, but it should continue to perform if oil and natural gas prices stay high this quarter. The utilities sector has strong execution, improving profit margins more than any other sector. Communications services companies also posted strong performance last quarter that should continue moving forward. The entertainment segment has been especially strong. Watch the monthly jobs reports to see if "leisure and hospitality" continues to be the strongest segment of the labor market. Telecommunications companies also should benefit from the 5g revolution. The financials sector is cheap right now even as it experiences an earnings boom. The low valuation reflects the recession risk to banks and the political risk to insurance companies, so buyer beware. The sector is still projected to post gains, and it might be worth buying for the dividends. The sector most likely to beat analyst expectations is consumer staples. This sector has the lowest percentage of buy ratings (39%), but it had the highest percentage of positive earnings surprises (88%) last quarter. Sectors to stay away from: The most overvalued sectors are consumer discretionary and information technology, both with forward P/E multiples over 22, so beware those sectors. Consumer discretionary is especially dangerous, with many companies having issued negative guidance last quarter. However, isolated companies in the sector are worth buying, including Foot Locker and Zumiez. Macy's may also be a buy, having nuked analyst expectations last year, and currently trading at 6.28 forward P/E. Healthcare, industrials, and materials companies also issued disproportionately negative guidance last quarter. If we get a really strong trade deal with China, however, the outlook for industrials and materials could turn positive very quickly.
SP:SPX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
News background and trading ideas for 26/12/2018Despite the holidays, the turbulence remains in the world. After Trump presidency, it’s very easy to find a chief troublemaker. And now again he continues to create tension and doesn’t allow traders to take some rest and enjoy with a festive feeling. The US stock market has fallen before the Christmas, oil prices have crashed, it is stormy on the cryptocurrency market, the dollar is sold off - and this is just a part of a news background or its consequences more precisely. Do not either forget about the Fear Index (VIX), which literally took off to the area of maximum values in 2018. Looks like Trump decided to make enemies literally of everybody up to end of the year. The US Secretary of Defense Mattis resigned, a scandal with Democrats led to another shutdown, and the accusations of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell of all the sins of the US economy gave rise to rumors about the imminent resignation of the head of the Central Bank, and finally knocked investors out of emotional balance. Amid all these tensions we would like to pay our readers attention one more time to the long-term deal on selling the dollar. After it 10% growth in 2018, the dollar possibly can suffer equivalent losses in upcoming 2019. So we continue to recommend mid- and long-term sales of the dollar. Recall that our current recommendations besides the general one of the dollar sales in the foreign exchange market include sales of oil, the Russian ruble, as well as purchases of the gold and British pound.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Danger In The Equities Market, Massive Sell Off May Occur!Hey Traders, there has been some significant selling in the equities market over the past week leaving the Dow down 7.5% in 6 days! On the chart above, I have labeled a few Major structure levels. For those of you who have gone through my How to read structure tutorials- we can clearly see that price has been trading within a range for a long time. That range was recently tested by the new higher high labeled on the chart above, and the test failed propelling price in the opposite direction. Since then, price has produced a weekly lower high followed by a break and close below the previous low. This leaves us with a weekly lower high, lower low situation. The next probable move would be a small rebound creating another lower high- If another lower high is created on the weekly chart, fear will surely pick up amongst Investors and there is a good possibility that we may witness a Major sell off from that point. This is purely structure analysis and nothing is confirmed yet however the recent price action shows all the characteristics of a market that is potentially reversing. If the market is to continue this way, and we receive confirmation of a reversal, I do not see how the markets will recover without a significant correction of at least 20%. For many years, people have been calling for a market crash, economic collapse, and so on however my analysis has always pointed towards trouble in the markets at the end of 2018 through 2021. If my analysis is correct, a market correction would occur throughout 2019, 2020, and possibly 2021. In this scenario I do not see the markets beginning to recover from these losses until at least 2021-2022. This analysis is based off of many different fundamentals, regarding interest rates, economic data, short term/long term cycles etc. Fundamentals only provide an outlook and are better used to determine a relative time frame for certain events, Technical Analysis however, can be used to help narrow that time frame. Judging by the current technicals, it appears as though we may be entering/approaching an Equities bear market. As for economics, I am not going to comment on that now in this post however I will touch on that subject in the near future. For now I am interested in seeing how price action unfolds over the next month or so as it will be revealing! Lets see if we can get a rebound on Monday up into the 23,000-23,500 level before a further sell off. If we do not get a rebound, then we may be looking at a famous "Black Monday".. The last scenario that could unfold is- price makes its way back up into the trading range (between the major previous high and low) and trade within that range for awhile. In my opinion the first scenario of a rebound and then sell off is the most likely to occur, while the last scenario is the most unlikely to occur. I hope this post is of value to you. If you would like me to post more on this subject please let me know in the comments section below. Please leave your feedback in the comments as well and give this post a thumbs up if you agree and/or it was helpful to you.
DJ:DJIShort
by Alec40
4
Long-Term forecast from https://walletinvestor.comI just saw something VERY alarming. With today's chaos, I took to the internet looking for long-term crypto forecasts. According to walletinvestor.com , out of BTC, ETH , LTC, and XRP - and this of course is only 3rd party predictions , the results are shocking. Have a look at the long term forecasts at walletinvestor.com for the major crypto's. Unfortunately they only have forecasts available for what can be termed as the fairly recent top-5 cryptos , and according to their site , out of the coins listed , there is only one with a current positive prediction. You are likely to be surprised. *I am nobody. This is not financial advice. Only a relay of Information available to the public at large.*
BITSTAMP:BCHUSD
by Cryptocautious
8
EURUSD may down to 1.1330 this week and below if break itLast week on 3rd of May EURUSD reach to the top level of 1.1616 and found strong resistance. In the last few days of the week the dollar recovered to the level of 1.14. World-Signals.com expects to see new recovery of the dollar in the week. In United States the investor focus is over the expecting PPI and Retail Sales on Friday at 13:30 GMT. In Europe the first key event for the week is on Tuesday Germany Trade Balance, Imports, Exports and Current Account at 6:00 GMT. On Thursday the focus is over EU Industrial Production at 9:00 GMT while for Friday the most important events are Germany GDP and CPI at 6:00 GMT and EuroZone GDP at 9:00 GMT. The dollar will continue to recovery as the key support level is at 1.1330. World-Signals.com recommends using this level to sell Euro for levels down to 1.12 or to use 1.1330 to open long positions if not break below.
Short
by World-Signals
2