EURUSD - Major resistance ahead with the fair value gaps!The EUR/USD pair remains firmly within a prevailing downtrend, characterized by a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This bearish momentum has resulted in the formation of several significant Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) on the 4-hour chart, which now act as potential resistance zones on any pullbacks. These FVGs not only coincide with important technical structures, but also align with key Fibonacci retracement levels, adding confluence to their strength. In the analysis below, we’ll walk through these zones and discuss the most probable scenarios based on the current price action.
First resistance zone
The first major resistance lies within the 4-hour FVG in the 1.1600 to 1.1650 region. This zone coincides with the golden pocket, which is formed between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels. This overlap strengthens the likelihood of price reacting bearishly here, should the market manage to retrace upwards into this area. Given the strong downward momentum, this level may be enough to trigger a continuation to the downside, making it a critical area to monitor for rejection signals.
Second resistance zone
The second key resistance is found in the upper 4-hour FVG, ranging from 1.1690 to 1.1750. This zone aligns closely with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and marks a former support zone that has now been broken, indicating a potential structure break. Price returning to this level would be retesting the underside of broken market structure, which often acts as a powerful resistance area. Given this, a deeper pullback into this region may serve as a trap for late buyers and potentially offer a high-probability short setup.
Bullish bounce area
On the bullish side, the most relevant support is currently found within the 1-hour FVG that was formed last Friday, during the release of the U.S. unemployment rate data. This zone is positioned below current price levels and is likely to act as a strong short-term demand area. It is reasonable to anticipate a bullish reaction from this zone if the market retraces downward, making it a favorable area to seek long opportunities for a potential move into the higher resistance levels described above.
Final thoughts
While the broader trend remains bearish, short-term bullish bounces are likely within defined fair value gaps. Traders should keep a close eye on the 1-hour FVG for possible long entries, while watching the 4-hour FVGs, particularly those aligning with key Fibonacci levels, for signs of bearish continuation. If resistance holds firm, the EUR/USD could resume its downtrend, but any structural breaks or sustained closes above these levels would challenge that view. As always, price action around these zones should guide the final decision-making.
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Forex
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GOLD?
Gold saw a strong rally on Friday following the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and is now trading near a key resistance zone.
At this resistance, a short-term pullback is likely as traders lock in profits.
We expect the correction to be contained within key support levels, and if price holds in that zone, the uptrend is likely to resume, targeting new highs.
Will gold resume its rally after the correction? Share your view below! 👇
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
BTC - Short Setup at 0.702 Fibonacci & Fair Value GapMarket Context
Bitcoin recently rejected from a major resistance area and has since been retracing downward, finding temporary support inside a bullish Fair Value Gap. The market is currently in a corrective phase, with buyers attempting to defend lower levels while sellers look for optimal positions to reload shorts. This environment shows a classic tug-of-war between these two forces as price moves between supply and demand zones.
Consolidation and Current Phase
Although the prior consolidation has been broken, the current price action can still be described as corrective, with intraday structure forming lower highs. The bullish Fair Value Gap beneath price has been respected so far, creating a temporary base. However, the path remains complex, as the market has unfilled imbalances both above and below.
Bearish Retest Scenario
One key scenario involves a retracement toward the bearish Fair Value Gap near 117K, which also aligns with the 0.702 Fibonacci retracement level. This confluence makes it a high-probability area for sellers to step in again. A rejection from that zone would likely resume the downtrend, with the next logical target being the deeper unfilled bullish Fair Value Gap around 110K. This zone acts as a magnet for price due to the inefficiency left behind during the last rally.
Bullish Defense Scenario
For bulls to regain control, the current Fair Value Gap at 114K must hold, followed by a strong move that invalidates the lower-high structure. Such a move would need to break above the 117K bearish FVG with conviction. Only then could momentum shift back to the upside, opening the door for another challenge of the higher resistance zones.
Final Words
Patience and precision are key when dealing with setups like this. Let the market come to your level — and react with intent.
If you found this breakdown helpful, a like is much appreciated! Let me know in the comments what you think or if you’re watching the same zones.
XAU/USD | Bounce in Play – Watching $3350 Support for Next Move!By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after hitting the first target at $3361, gold continued its rally and reached our second supply level at $3385. Upon reaching this key level, the price faced strong selling pressure, dropping over 350 pips down to $3349. Gold is now trading around $3363, and if it can hold above the $3350 support level, we could expect another bullish push. The next upside targets are $3367, $3375, and $3385. This analysis will be updated in the coming hours with your continued support!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
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BTC recovery within the downtrend – watch for sell signalsHello friends,
Today, BTCUSD is showing a slight bearish bias, currently hovering around $115,000.
On the macro front, global financial markets are still digesting expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates in September, with current odds close to 90%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The main driver? Last week’s disappointing Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, which slightly weakened the US dollar and gave Bitcoin some short-term relief.
However, BTC is still not out of the woods. Institutional investors remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals from the Fed. If the US stock market pulls back, Bitcoin could follow suit as part of a short-term profit-taking wave.
From a technical point of view, BTCUSD is still respecting a well-defined descending channel on the H4 timeframe. Price is approaching a strong confluence resistance zone around $115,800 (Entry Sell 1), aligned with both EMA and trendline. The next key level to watch is $118,000 (Entry Sell 2) – a zone that may trigger a false breakout before sellers step back in.
Looking ahead, the plan is to sell if the price shows rejection signs near 115,800 or 118,000. Place your SL just above resistance, and TP targets at 112,000, with an extended target near the $110,000 channel bottom.
So, what’s your take – will BTC break the downtrend channel or drop further?
Drop your thoughts in the comments below!
Latest Gold Price Update TodayHey everyone! Let’s take a closer look at what’s happening with gold today.
Over the past week, the global gold market experienced dramatic swings. Prices tumbled following cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, only to rebound sharply after disappointing U.S. employment data.
On Wednesday, the Fed held interest rates steady, and Powell stated, “We haven’t made any decisions for September.” Though brief, that statement hinted that a rate cut isn’t guaranteed — dashing investor hopes and sending gold to its lowest level in four weeks.
But by Friday, the narrative flipped. A weaker-than-expected jobs report triggered a powerful rally. Within just two minutes of the data release, gold surged by $30, closing the week at $3,361 — a gain of over 2% in a single day.
These moves highlight just how sensitive gold is to Fed signals. A slight shift in tone or a single data point can spark major volatility.
From a technical perspective, falling U.S. Treasury yields have allowed XAU/USD to regain bullish momentum, as the market reassesses Fed rate expectations after the weak NFP print. If gold successfully breaks out of its current channel after a short-term pullback, the next target could be $3,400 — or even higher.
Do you agree with this outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Good luck and happy trading!
#AN023: US Tariffs and Jobs Data Sinking the Dollar
Today I want to talk to you about the latest relevant news of the week, focusing on US tariffs and the jobs data sinking the dollar and their overall impact on forex. Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, an independent trader and prop trader with $200,000 in capital under management. Thank you in advance for your time.
Let's get started:
1. Disappointing US jobs & new Trump tariffs
The Non-Farm Payrolls report (July) shows only 73,000 new jobs (+unemployment rates at 4.2%), with negative revisions for May-June: -258,000 jobs.
President Trump immediately signed executive orders imposing reciprocal tariffs (10–41%) on 68 countries, including Canada, Switzerland, India, and Taiwan.
The US dollar has lost ground, Treasury yields have fallen sharply, and the market is now pricing in a 90% rate cut as early as September.
FOREX Impact:
USD weak across all major crosses (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD).
Emerging currencies such as MXN, TRY, and INR could stabilize or gain against the USD.
JPY and CHF gain safe-haven appeal; USD/JPY and USD/CHF face possible reversals.
2. Return of $5 billion RBI swap, impact on Indian liquidity
RBI swap expiration of ₹43,000 cr (~$5 billion) scheduled for August 4: possible drain of liquidity from the Indian banking system.
FOREX Impact:
Potential downside pressure on the INR, volatility on USD/INR.
Monitor capital flows: USD/INR gains possible if trade roles remain balanced.
3. IMF Improves Forecasts but Beware of Tariff Risks
The IMF revised global growth for 2025 to 3.0%, but warns of persistent risks from high tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
FOREX Impact:
Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) benefit from a moderately positive tone.
USD weak, but emerging markets vulnerable if growth weakens further.
4. 🇺🇸 Fed Maintains High Rates and Delays Cuts
The FOMC left Fed rates at 4.25–4.50%, adopting a wait-and-see approach. Internal disagreements on potential anticipated cuts.
FOREX Impact:
USD gains limited in the short term.
If Powell remains wait-and-see, the dollar will tend to remain weak or stagnant.
5. 📉 Correct Treasury rise and rate cut expectations
2-year bond yields -25 bps, pricing in 65–100 bps of cuts by the end of the year. Markets are losing confidence in jobs data, and the credibility of the BLS is being questioned.
FOREX Impact:
USD under pressure, especially on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Higher-yielding currencies such as AUD and NZD may gain carry trade flows.
6. 🌏 Asia-Pacific markets nervous on US pressure and strong yen
Asian stocks mixed: Nikkei -2%, MSCI Asia +0.3%. Strong yen penalizes Japanese exports.
FOREX Impact:
JPY strengthens, USD/JPY may compress below 150.
AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are sensitive to risk-on/off flows into the JPY.
7. Rising country risk, emerging markets under stress
Experts recommend currency and sovereign hedging due to US volatility, impacting international portfolios.
Strengthening CHF, JPY, and possible weakness in less liquid thermal currencies.
Interest remains high in the USD compared to high-risk emerging currencies.
8. Key events expected: Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21–23)
Powell and other regulators expected to deliver a speech. No Fed/ECB meeting soon, increasing the importance of Jackson Hole as a catalyst.
FOREX Impact:
Potential flash volatility in the USD, EUR, and GBP following forward guidance.
GBP/USD: Sell setup shaping upHey everyone, what’s your take on GBP/USD right now?
After breaking below the trendline, GBP/USD tried to retest the area but failed to hold. Price is now hovering around 1.329, and the selling pressure is still clearly present.
This current setup is aiming toward the Fibonacci 1.618 extension zone around 1.287. In the short term, a pullback could play out based on Dow Theory, and the highlighted zone might offer a prime shorting opportunity.
My bias: SELL on the retest — with tight risk management, clear TP and SL in place.
Now it’s your turn — what’s your outlook? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.
Good luck and trade smart! 💼📉
EURUSD – price retest in motion, will the selloff resume?After a decisive break below key support, EURUSD is now retesting that zone in a classic break–retest setup. While familiar to many traders, this structure can be deceptive if the reaction is misread.
Currently, price action remains cautious. Buyers have pushed price back toward the former support – now acting as resistance – but we haven’t seen any strong bullish candle closes. If clear rejection signals emerge (such as a bearish engulfing candle or increasing downside momentum), EURUSD is likely to resume its decline toward TP1 at the Fibonacci extension near 1.1288, or even further down to TP2 at the 1.618 extension.
On the flip side, a convincing break and hold above 1.1580 would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook. That would signal a potential shift in market sentiment – and flexibility will be key.
I’m currently waiting for more confirmation.
What about you – how are you reading this reaction? Let me know your take in the comments!
Accurate Price Model for Trading Smart Money Concepts SMC (=
If you trade Smart Money Concepts SMC, there is one single pattern that you should learn to identify.
In this article, you will learn an accurate price model that you can use to predict a strong bullish or bearish movement way before it happens.
Read carefully and discover how to track the silent actions of smart money on any market.
The only thing that you need to learn to easily find this pattern is basic Structure Mapping . After you map significant highs and lows, you will quickly recognize it.
This SMC pattern has 2 models: bullish and bearish ones.
Let's start with a bearish setup first.
Examine a structure of this pattern
it should be based on 2 important elements.
The price should set a sequence of equal lows.
These equal lows will compose a demand zone.
The area where a buying interest will concentrate.
The minimum number of equal lows and lowers highs should be 2 to make a model valid.
Exhausting of bullish moves will signify a loss of confidence in a demand zone . Less and less market participants will open buy positions from that.
At some moment, a demand zone will stop holding. Its bearish breakout will provide a strong bearish signal , and a bearish continuation will most likely follow.
This price model will signify a market manipulation by Smart Money.
They will not intentionally let the price fall, not letting it break a demand zone. A buying interest that will arise consequently will be used as a source of liquidity.
Smart money will grab liquidity of the buyers, silently accumulating huge volumes of selling orders.
Once they get enough of that, a bearish rally will start, with a demand zone breakout as a trigger.
Though, the chart model that I shared above has a strong bullish impulse, preceding its formation, remember that it is not mandatory.
The price may also form a bearish impulse first and for a pattern then.
Each bullish movement that initiates after a formation of an equal low should be weaker than a previous one.
So that the price should set a lower high every time after a formation of an equal low.
Look at a price action on USDCHF forex pair. Way before the price dropped, you could easily identify a market manipulation of Smart Money and selling orders accumulation.
A breakout of a horizontal demand zone was a final bearish confirmation signal.
Let's study its bullish model.
It has a similar structure.
The price should set a sequence of equal highs, respecting a horizontal supply zone.
Each bearish move that follows after its test should have a shorter length, forming a higher low with its completion.
This model will be also valid if it forms after a completion of a bearish impulse.
Weakening bearish movements will signify a loss of confidence in a supply zone, with fewer and fewer market participants selling that.
Its bullish breakout will be an important even that will confirm a highly probable strong bullish continuation.
Smart Money will use this price model to manipulate the market and accumulate buying orders, not letting the price go through a supply zone. They will grab a liquidity of the sellers each time a bearish move follows from a supply zone.
When they finally get enough of a liquidity, a bullish rally will initiate and a supply zone will be broken , providing a strong confirmation signal.
That price model was spotted on GBPJPY forex pair.
Smart Money were manipulating the market, not letting it continue rallying by creating a significant horizontal supply zone.
Selling orders that were executed after its tests provided a liquidity for them.
A bullish breakout of the underlined zone provides a strong bullish confirmation signal.
A breakout and a future rise could be easily predicted once this price model appeared.
Why they do it?
But why do Smart Money manipulate the markets that way?
The answer is simple: in comparison to retail traders, they trade with huge trading orders . To hide their presence and to not impact market prices much, they split their positions into a set of tiny orders that they execute, grabbing the liquidity.
The price model that we discussed today is the example how they do it.
The important thing to note about this pattern is that it efficiently works on any market and any time frame. You can use that for scalping, day trading, swing trading. And it can help you find great investing opportunities.
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USDCHF – Bullish comeback in progress?Hey everyone! What’s your take on the current trend of USDCHF?
While the pair experienced a recent dip, take a step back and look at the bigger picture — doesn’t it still seem to be moving within an ascending channel?
Right now, USDCHF is hovering around 0.8092 and starting to bounce back. The recovery appears to be supported by a newly formed support zone and the confluence of the EMA 34 and 89. The pair seems to be eyeing the recent high, with potential to climb further toward the upper boundary of the channel.
My current bias? Bullish.
What about you — do you see the same opportunity?
Drop a comment and hit like if you’re on the same page!
CADJPY: Bullish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
Balance of buyers and sellers on the CADJPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the buyers, therefore is it only natural that we go long on the pair.
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Gold’s heating up – Riding the wave or waiting for the dip?Hey everyone! So, what’s your take on XAUUSD right now?
Gold’s been on a tear lately – yesterday it kept pushing higher and is now chilling around $3,376.
The move’s mostly driven by hopes that the Fed might ease up soon, especially with recent U.S. data showing signs of slowing down.
From a chart perspective, it’s looking like we might be at the beginning of a fresh bullish wave. There’s a nice bullish confluence happening at the EMA 34 and 89, plus we’ve broken above previous resistance – both giving that upward momentum some real backing.
If price pulls back before another push, I’m keeping my eyes on the Fibo 0.5–0.618 zone. That area also lines up with the EMAs and old resistance, so it could be a sweet spot for a buy setup if things line up right.
Personally, I’m leaning bullish today.
BTC/USD - KEY SUPPORT BREAKOUT IN FOCUS!Bitcoin is currently trading near a critical support level, and price action is setting up for a decisive move.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias):
Key support at ~$117,800 has broken, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
If the breakdown holds, we could see a strong bearish continuation toward the demand zone around $111,000.
Price may retest the broken support before the next leg down.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Alternate):
If buyers regain control and reclaim the broken support, BTC could retest the strong high at $120,700, and possibly push toward the supply zone near $123,000.
🔎 Structure Highlights:
Supply Zone: $122,000 – $123,000
Demand Zone: $110,000 – $111,500
Key Resistance/Support: $117,800
Strong High: ~$120,700
📌 Watch Closely:
Price behavior on the retest of the broken support
Bearish confirmation for downside continuation
Bullish reclaim for short-term recovery
A decisive move is near – be ready for both scenarios with tight risk management!
DOGE Setup Heating Up: These Levels Could Define the Next Move!Prediction for the Period Ahead (Next 1–2 Weeks):
*Base case: Holding support at $0.198–$0.200 → test $0.215.
*Bull trigger: Break above $0.215 with volume → possible move to $0.232 and higher.
*Downside risk: Falling below $0.182 could drag the price to $0.175 before any recovery.
DOGE is currently consolidating in a tight range with a neutral to slightly bearish technical bias. However, a breakout above $0.215, particularly supported by volume, could set the stage for further gains targeting $0.232–$0.287 zone. Conversely, a downturn past $0.182 opens the risk of a deeper test toward $0.175. In either scenario, the upcoming weeks seem pivotal...
Only look for BUY signal points in the current trend of Gold✏️The D1 candle closed with strong bullish force at the end of the day. The gold trend is still increasing wave 3 and there is no sign of correction. The reaction around 3385 in the Asian session this morning is being awaited to see if it is a recovery of Gold or not. The BUY strategy at important support zones is still maintained and pay attention to the price reaction of the candle.
📉 Key Levels
Support 3363-3346-3332
Resistance 3385 - 3407
Buy trigger: Confirmation of buying candle at support zones 3363-3346-3333
Target: 3400.00
USOILUSOIL price is now testing the support zone of 64.72-63.88. If the price cannot break through the 63.88 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying in the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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Gold Price Analysis August 5#XAUUSD – Gold continues to increase in wave 3, BUY strategy continues to be prioritized
The D1 candle continued to close with strong increase, confirming that the uptrend is dominant and there are no clear signs of correction. Gold is currently moving in wave 3 - a period with strong amplitude and few recovery beats, so the main trading strategy is still to wait to buy at important support zones.
In the Asian session this morning, the price is reacting at the 3385 zone - an area that can act as a confirmation point for the next recovery. If the buyers maintain their position in this zone, the price will likely continue to move towards higher resistance zones.
🔹 Support zone to watch: 3363 – 3346 – 3332
🔹 Potential resistance zone: 3385 – 3407
👉 Strategy: Prioritize waiting for confirmation signals at support zones to open BUY orders in the direction of the trend. Need to carefully observe the price reaction at the 3385 zone to assess the strength of the buying force during the day.
BITCOIN H4 | Bullish bounce offBTC/USD is falling towards the buy entry, which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Buy entry is at 111,694.11, which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 107,575.37, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 117,203.18, which is a pullback resistance.
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XAUUSD breaks out – bullish bias returnsGold has bounced from the bottom of the descending channel, initiating a clear upward move with a series of strong bullish candles. On the H2 chart, price has broken above the upper boundary of the medium-term downtrend channel and filled the nearest fair value gap, signaling a resurgence in buying pressure.
Current price action is approaching a previous resistance zone, aligned with recent swing highs. The chart suggests a potential consolidation before further upside, provided that the current bullish structure remains intact.
From a macro perspective, while the stronger-than-expected U.S. PMI data supports the USD in the short term, weak labor market figures and ongoing global geopolitical tensions continue to fuel demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. This environment is helping sustain XAUUSD’s current recovery structure.
GBPJPY: More Growth is Coming! 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY will likely bounce from a key daily support,
following a formation of a double bottom pattern
on an hourly time frame.
I think that the price will reach 196.7 level soon.
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Gold Trading Strategy XAUUSD August 4, 2025Gold Trading Strategy XAUUSD August 4, 2025:
Gold prices rose more than 2% last Friday, hitting a one-week high, as weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data boosted hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut and the announcement of new tariffs fueled safe-haven demand for gold.
Fundamental news: The non-farm payrolls report showed only 73,000 jobs added in July, well below market expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a cooling labor market.
Technical Analysis: Gold prices are rising strongly after a strong candle in the 3285 - 3300 area as previously predicted. The bullish pattern on the H1 frame has shown that the buyers are returning very strongly. Currently, the price is showing signs of sideway at the 336x area, our strategy today will be to wait for trading at the support zones of the gold price. Important price zones today: 3315 - 3320 and 3330 - 3335.
Today's trading trend: BUY.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3330 - 3332
SL 3327
TP 3335 - 3345 - 3355 - 3370.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 3318 - 3320
SL 3315
TP 3323 - 3333 - 3343 - 3363.
Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 3370 - 3372
SL 3375
TP 3367 - 3357 - 3347 - 3337 (small volume).
Wishing you a safe, smooth and profitable trading week.💗💗💗💗💗