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USD/JPY- Further Price Analysis Last week we saw price return to the major resistance zone after some rejection late in previous weeks and early last week. Price returned to this zone after accumulation of contracts throughout the week within the range of 113.700- 114.250 and then a push to resistance on the release of negative NFP data (114.250). After the push to resistance there has been a slight pullback off this zone suggesting the strength of this zone and the contracts it will need to break it and push further. This week there is a good possibility to see further upside based on price action and current fundamentals. The two scenarios how I can see price play out would be (A) a continued retracement to a supply zone or TL followed by accumulation of the resistance zone then a push to the extended upside target zone making a higher high continuing the uptrend. The other option is (B) a strong break of the resistance and a push into the target zone followed by a rejection and a retest of the broken resistance (now support @ 114.250). This seems less likely as it looks like we need some good strength to break this zone as price hasn't traded higher than that since a rate hike back in March 2017. Interestingly enough, fundamentals are strong for the dollar right now as a future rate hike that it almost certain to occur in December is being priced in. Even negative NFP data wasn't enough to bring prices lower. Would be interesting to see price return to the same area for the same type of fundamental event. Fundamentals for this week include some central banker speeches (USD, JPY, EUR) and a USD bank holiday on Nov 10.
by nick.trader4
Looking to short NZDJPY on ABCD patternNew Zealand new Prime Minister Labour Party Ardern is implementing new policies such as reducing immigrants can affect the economic growth. Also lack of details in RBNZ cause uncertainty about future monetary policy outlook. So I am bearish on NZD From the chart, market is actually moving side way (200ema is flat). However, since the election, NZD has dropped significantly and price is below 200ema. There is a downward bounce (ABCD) formation. I am looking for pullback and short at previous low. Reward to risk for this analysis is 5 : 1
Short
by hzs
USD/JPY Trend- MAJOR FUNDAMENTALS WEEK Last week USD/JPY was moving up in a nice bullish market structure on its way to the major daily level around 114.500. It was making a series of HH and HL throughout the week before hitting the major resistance on a news release last Friday. After the major resistance we saw a nice rejection and bearish close near a support zone. Should be interesting to see how/where price opens in accordance to the support area. This week we could see some continued bearish price action to the major 113.250 area or a push up for liquidity back to the major supply zone from last week. I believe at some point we could strike 113.250 this week but with all the high impact fundamental events on the calendar this week it's hard to determine exactly when/how these moves will play out so its best to just follow price action as it develops. It's also a possibility that with the increased volatility that could take place this week if we are able to break one of these major zones clearly (Resistance @114.500, Support @113.250). This would open the door for further directional price action. The major high impact events on the calendar this week include NFP Nov.3, interest rate decisions for USD (Nov.1) and JPY (Oct.31) and other events for USD, CAD and GBP.
by nick.trader4
USD/JPY On the MoveLast week we saw it was very bullish for UJ. The first week in about a month where we saw good trending price action. Previous weeks were filled with a lot of consolidation and ranging price action. On Friday price broke a major level around 113.500 and the last time we saw price rise above these levels was in July. This week we could see a continuation of this uptrend after some consolidation or a slight pullback as we have already had a lot of consolidation over the past month now is the time where a trend can continue. The most logical upside target would be about 100 standard pips away at 114.500. What will happen at this level is uncertain whether we keep going up or make what would look to be a triple top at this level. However if we do continue up 115 would be next. Fundamentals/News this week looks light, some high impact news but nothing out of the ordinary for USD. More importantly the focus would be on the geopolitical issues (Trump & NK could change the outlook for USD/GOLD fast.) and also Trump's new tax reform plan and the replacement for Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
by nick.trader4
EUR Pound short and the reason why Good evening everyone SO currently I am in this trade shorting the reasons why are the following: If you look at the weekly and daily sellers where my stop is sellers are showing their strength in pushing this market down engulfing candle followed by a daily confirmation of breaking down towards lower lows Conclusion: My target is either tps at the same time we will need to watch how this market reacts to the tp : Either the Euro shoots through the tps and goes down further or we go back up after hitting the tps Any feedback I am all ears and looking forward to any questions you may have Kris www.mymentortv.com Facebook: mymentortv Instagram: mymentortv
Short
by mymentortv
USDJPY Oct. 9- Oct. 13Last week analysis called for a week of consolidation after a strong trending market. We had a lot of consolidation staying within the 112.25-113.25 range. NFP results were positive for USD and caused price to break this resistance but then quickly rejected the next zone and returned to our range. For this week price is still in an uptrend but has lost some momentum due to the accumulation of orders for the past week. So far it looks as if price should go to retest the major support after rejection on Friday. This is a zone I would watch closely as if we reject this support again I think we can bring momentum back to the uptrend to the target of 114ish area. (Daily Supply Zone) But if we break the support zone we could have a potential trend change. Fundamentals are light this week.. mid week Fed meeting minutes will be of the most impact as fed members have been increasingly hawkish moving the chance of another rate hike this year to 77% from 70%. (credit to investing.com for those numbers). Lastly.. previous week longer term analysis still stands and is valid.
by nick.trader4
Sterling : Life beyond the shackles Last year in June, United Kingdom's majority chose to leave the European Union. This year on March 29th Prime Minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, officially stamping the process to sever ties with the bloc.This brings to end a 44-year-old relationship that always had National political parties at odds, will the UK be better off without the Union or with.Most economists hold a negative view of the Brexit.They warned the public that a Leave win could have acute but serious consequences for UK economy, an immediate increase in unemployment, inflation etc. Their predictions were wide off the mark.Although inflation increased unemployment is at a record low since 1975.This is a good indication that separation from EU would be good for the UK economy in the long run.The UK once fully segregated from the Union and the regulatory burdens of trade policy could benefit immensely by adopting their own free trade policy with major world markets. There are more than 2 million EU nationals working in the UK, a divorce would give British government control back over who it allows to live and work, hence more work opportunities for Britons.After Germany, Britain is the second biggest contributor to the EU budget, leaving EU would mean all that money would be used for the national budget.But what the UK actually stands to gain will depend on the terms of negotiating with EU.It might be possible that EU could force UK to keep contributing to EU budget if they want access to EU Single Market.There have been hints that Britain will have to pay a hefty exit fee to EU that could run into tens of billion Pounds.Whether Brexit will bring about economic gain or loss for the UK can only be speculated as of now.I am not an economist but an investor and a trader, from my standpoint the worst for GBP is over. Pound in the midst of US Civil War in 1864 reached a value of $10. After the high of $10, its value started to drop and continued the downward slope for over a century against USD. A drop that started in 1864 halted in 1985, which almost brought it down to parity with the USD at 1.0438.I believe that the low of 1985 will remain to be a historical one as I do not see that low being taken out for decades.An unprecedented event like Brexit threw Sterling in a tizzy, it dropped over 1800 pips against the USD in one day after a Leave win was confirmed. And over the next few months, it kept trading lower and stabilized after hitting a low of 1.1980 in October 2016.Now it has started to get back up and is gearing to move upwards from here.The low of October 2016 will remain a very strong support for a long time to come. Coming to the analysis I'm expecting GBPUSD to make a short-term high in last week of October or first week of November. Then a low in last week of November to the first week of December. high in the first week of January and a major low around the first week of February. Then major high around last week of February or first week of March. Highs should be higher highs unless a low is broken, and lows to be higher lows as well. As always, will update as and when changing dynamics necessitates so.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn1307339