Forex-aud
AUD/USDThe pair is preparing a reversal, heading to the weekly support (0.72843)
enter when the trend line touches the daily resistence (0.74417)
Hit the like button and thanks for he support.
AUDUSD SHORT on the DAILYMainly technical analysis here, but I think the fundamentals support a break to the downside. I have an order in to short if it drops on opening with stops back above the channel support and the SMA 50, with limits set just above lines of support from earlier in the year. I'm hoping LIMIT 1 will be realised quite quickly, and looking to buy back 50% there, with LIMIT 2 with the other 50% of my position being a potential super score (in my books!) lower down. AUDUSD 's past performance suggests that if it tanks, it could fall down to that bottom line quite quickly. In my view, the fundamentals might help to accelerate the bears.
These are only my opinions. Comments, questions and suggestions are very welcome!
TradeToStart week 10: AUD/USD good value to short fromAs all retail traders are looking for long trades, we know this pair can easily get lower again.
The nice high test at out weekle resistance is a good signal to trade from along with a bunch of other confluences on the different TF's.
AUDNZD Long Fundamentally we have the Reserve Bank of Australia with a neutral stance and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a neutral stance after the latest rate cut. In fact the NZ CPI Figures are scheduled for this week before we head into the showdown of the RBNZ in the last week of January. I am expecting a drop in NZ CPI Figures of round about -0.5%, while the newest Dairy Auction should bring a negative result for milk price pouder what should force the RBNZ to act further this year and give up the neutral stance. Further the El Nino should have a much bigger Impact on NZ's Economy than on Australia Economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia should keep the Cash Rate unchanged throughout the year. The only thing i am worried about are the falling coal and iron ore prices what is more related to Australias ToT. Further the weakness surrounding about china is more bad news for the Land Down Under than for NZ because Australia Export round about 33 % to China, while NZ is only within the game with round about 20%.
Technically we are also preparing for a big move higher. This does not mean it could happens this or next week. But should the NZ CPI Figures and Dairy Prices tank, than the RBNZ has to act again. Currently the RBNZ expects CPI to shrink to -0.2%. But as said earlier, I am expecting a drop to -0.5%. Anyway, in the weekly and monthly chart we are forming a nice head and shoulders reversal pattern. What i am also wanted to say is: The iron ore and coal prices what i am worried about has fallen significantly already and the AUD adjusted to them a lot already. Anyway, short term we still have space to go a bit down to my area, but i am not thinking about that the AUD/NZD could test the Parity again. Further when we scroll back in history, we are at one of the most important support zones for this pair, what makes me more confident about it. Please let me know what you think. Thank you! Have a great sunday
AUDNZD - Top of the channel short, good R/RShorted yesterday AUDNZD at the top of the channel. Good R/R
Now with Break-even stop.
Partial Target: mid line of the channel (dotted blue line) 1.104
Full Target: Low of the channel 1.092
Clean break of support will result in a short positionThis pair has run into a resistance area however with the large bearish candles it doesn't look like slowing down any time soon. If we see a candle break below resistance and close i would see this as a good reason to take up a short position. I would like to see it close around the 0.77 area rather then just below as this will increase the probability of the trade. If the pair gets to the 0.768 levels i might look at taking some partial profits but my main price target is 0.753. This pair also looks bearish on the high time frames and we can also see on the daily that the moving averages have crossed over. But the main thing to remember here is we need that close below resistance.
AUDUSD Correctional move UP possible2 previous weeks gave us a possible reversal signal (Spinning bottom), and the price will possibly continue a correctional move up to 0.8250 area which is 23.6% - 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area. Current opportunity is only possible if the present week will be closed above the previous week middle range and above the 0.7625 Level. For a short term Long entries, use intraday/intraweek signals with a short stops not lower then 0.7625 level
$XAU vs $XAG Remains Bullish | #Gold #Silver $GLD #SILVFriends,
A quick note on this relative strength chart between Gold and Silver. Last October 10th, 2013, I offered a bullish directional idea based on the completion of a pattern of moderate/high reliability, called the "Kiss Of Death ("KoD").
As the pattern play out quite well, so did price action, as it is now ever closer to the targets defined at the time as well, namely:
1 - TG-3 = 77.75 - 10 OCT 013. Targets #1 and 2 were it as per the two remaining yellow lines @ 50.80 and 503.98.
and
2 - TG-Hi = 80.29 - 02 MAR 2014, defined later on as low-probability.
OVERALL:
In the Forex context, I would keep an eye on Gold-sensitive currencies, such as AUD, CAD and CHF, as well as NZD, which are positively correlated to Gold. So, a decline in this relative strength chart should alert the Forex trader to the possibility of such throughout effect.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter:
(Alias: @4xForecaster)
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Disclaimer:
- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
