Weekly Futures Market Forecast November 14 2021Hey Traders just wanted to give an weekly forecast on what I see happening in the futures market this week. The S&P 500 Futures Market made another weekly all time high last week. The Oil futures market are still in an uptrend. Inflation fears are rising more and the US dollar futures market has broken out of weekly consolidation. The Bitcoin futures market also have broken the all time high and cryptos are once again on the move.
Enjoy
Trade Well,
Clifford
Forex-gold
Why Do You Need a Trading Journal? 📝
Hey traders,
📖 Trading Journal is a crucial element in your trading education.
Even though the majority tends to neglect it, in fact, it is considered to be the essential part of a daily routine of a professional trader.
In this post, we will discuss why you should keep a trading journal & how it enhances your trading performance.
Let's start with the obvious:
✍️ Trading journal is applied for recording your trading positions:
winning and losing ones.
With that, you can monitor your current performance, identify the mistakes that were made and examine your decisions.
❌ Analyzing the errors you learn your weaknesses & the situations when it is preferable not to trade. You adjust your trading strategy accordingly in order to avoid similar mistakes in future.
💪 Examining the winning trades you learn about your strengths.
You identify the trading instruments, the trading setups where your strategy reaches the highest accuracy.
⚖️ Working with the numbers you can measure your investing exposure and calculate your account drawdowns. You can analyze your losing streaks & your long-term/mid-term/short-term account statistics.
📈 Analyzing the figures you can measure your progress over time by comparing your current results with the old ones.
😡 Keeping the record of your emotions, you can measure & quantify the psychological element of your trading. You may calculate the percentage of emotional decisions being made and their effect.
🌟 Consistent journaling makes you disciplined. It teaches you to strictly follow the rules of your trading plan & constantly learn from your mistakes in order to hasten the path towards a more disciplined and profitable trading career.
A trading journal should be simple and tailored to your specific trading style and the goals you would like to achieve.
I hope that my words will inspire you to keep a trading journal!
Do you have the one already?
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
XAUUSD BUY OANDA:XAUUSD
1. Overall trend was bullish.
2. D was bullish
3. 4hr candle was creating HH HL
4. 1hr was ranging. 7pm candle made a strong rejection.
5. Took a buy with a smaller lot (dynamic risk) when the 7.30pm candle broke the prev 30m candle with SL below the prev 15m candle around 22 pips.
6. moved the Sl to the below the new 15m candle (8.15pm) around 17 pips.
7. Took another buy when the candle broke the D's high anticipating to push higher with the NY volume and clean candle to the left (40 pip range)
8. Closed the first position with 20 pips and the 2nd position with 11 pips. Since it was a monday I closed everything and did not leave a runner
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE. Explanation For Newbies👨🏫
✅Support and resistance levels are the price areas on the chart where the price has ever changed its direction. This place always attracts traders, because near the levels there are obvious places for setting stop losses and entering into a deal. Also, there are always limited orders of large buyers or sellers near the levels.
❇️We can say that the level is a price area in the market where traders consider the price to be overstated or undervalued, depending on the current market dynamics. Therefore, it is always important to pay attention to the key levels at which support and resistance have reversed roles or there has been a strong rebound in the price.
⚠️What is the support level?
🟢In theory, the support level is an area below the current market price where participants will make purchases and there are high chances to keep this area under pressure from sellers. At the time of the test of the support level, prices are repelled and begin to rise, therefore, the pressure from sellers decreases, since they cannot gain a foothold under the level to continue moving down. We can say that the buyers, in this case, were stronger.
🟢As a rule, such levels can be determined in advance on price charts. These can be both daily and hourly charts. However, experienced traders identify higher time intervals as more important. For example, the support level on the daily chart will be much stronger than the support area on the five-minute timeframe.
🟢On a daily time interval, prices can test support for weeks before bears can push the price lower. On a five-minute chart, sometimes one test is enough to gain a foothold below and move to the next level.
🟢Also, with the breakout of the support level, we can state the completion of the development of the upward movement. If prices are rising, and after the test of the support level, we constantly observe a rebound and a continuation of the rise. In this case, we can talk about the continuation of the upward trend. If at some point we observe a breakout of the support level, then we can think about the end of the upward trend on the chart.
⚠️What is the resistance level?
🔴The resistance level is the opposite of the support area. If the support is below the current market price, then the resistance area is above the current market price. Thus, resistance indicates an area where the pressure from sellers is much higher than the pressure from buyers, prices are repelled and a drop occurs. Therefore, at the moment of testing a strong resistance level, prices quickly push off and begin to move in the opposite direction.
🔴With the development of a downward trend, resistance levels represent a place for conservative selling in the direction of the current trend. Recall that the basic rule is to sell on resistance and buy near the support area. Therefore, if the trend goes down, then a correction occurs, after which prices test resistance. In this case, the buyers' strength runs out and there is a decline in the direction of the current trend.
❗️The ability to correctly draw support and resistance levels is one of the basic skills that every trader should have. Levels are also the basis for trading strategies and the right risk-to-profit ratio.
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DAX40 / GER40 ready for the next move UP? Hello traders,
What is your idea about the DAX40 ? here is my opinion:
We had a very strong impulsive move up, followed by a clear and slow correction move.
After we found strong resistance on the fib-levels and had our indicators showing bullish signs we are waiting for the bullish break of structure to align with our indicators.
When the bullish structure break, we will also see the counter-trendline be broken, this means we are going to exchange strong bearish resistance for strong bullish support.
Expectations are, IF we break structure, and ONLY IF WE BREAK THESE structural levels, than we can make a MASSIVE move up.
So, conclusion, we are waiting for a bullish move to change from a bearish market structure to a bullish market structure.
And if this happens we will take our entry.
Kind regards,
Tim.
XAUUSD 4H - LevelsOur long trade is working well for us, members have managed to take a few entries, bank partial profits and re-enter again on this giving us a nice end to the month. We're going to follow this illustration and the trend that is in play which could possibly lead us to the key liquidity area around 1835. What we need to keep in mind is that there will be a lot of break even traders in the region and a lot of stops above so there is potential for a little higher!! For that reason we'll keep taking profits along the way on our long and protect with the stop at entry.
We're in now so lets see how far we can take it. Our ideal area is that 1835 region for another short, but lets be patient and we'll assess the situation when and if we get there.
Todays levels:
Support:
1797
1793
1786
Resistance:
1805
1808/9
1814-6
As always, trade safe.
KOG
What will happen to XAUUSD ?As you can see XAU has a strong Resistance on 1822 - 1833
Because that Resistance 3 times woks and When gold hit that resistance in the past we had large of sell power
We have FIBO 0.382 that zone
I think XAU wants to fall because of this reasons
Thank you for reading
Dont forget Like and Follow and Share
GOLD HATES FLIRTING SO IT'S MOVING TO 3RD BASE! BUY XAUUSDSo gold has finally broken a through a trendline and signs are it's heading up and the first stop is likely gonna be at the 127.0% fibonacci extension followed by the previous structure @2073. We will likely get a minor correction before we take off so you still have time to get your orders in!!
Forecast of GBPUSD H1 25/10/2021 2:44 PM
The graph shows a reversal pattern with a breakout and a pullback.
The market has been a bull market since September.
Market shows a strong support on 1.38224 line.
In M30, the 200EMA is above the graph which indicates a bear market for the next upcoming weeks.
Patterns of possible market correction or reversal 📊
Trend reversal or correction chart patterns signify a reversal of the current trend on the observed chart. In a bullish trend, a reversal formation indicates a highly probable reversal and initiation of a bearish movement.
In a bearish trend, a reversal patterns leaves bullish clues and indicates a highly probable bullish accumulation.
No matter bullish or bullish reversal pattern is spotted,
The trigger that we are looking for is a breakout of the pattern’s support/resistance.
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WHAT A BEAUTY!!! BEARISH GARTLEY ON XAUUSDWe have bearish gartley pattern forming on gold and this is going to be a bit risky because i an long on gold on a higher time frame, however, the market has been in consolidation recently. If the consolidation continues then you can expect this gartley pattern to be a winning trade but also bare in mind that the market can finish the consolidation at any time and resumes it's uptrend!
Trade everything that moves. The mechanics of the position set💡
Trading on the market can be regarded as a full-fledged struggle for the right to survival, where the main enemies are two factors, infinite randomness and time.
By adapting your positions to what is happening, you risk becoming that very accident and you can only fight with time.
The mechanics of the position set includes a theory about the direction of the price.
Directivity theory
The essence lies in the continuous direction of the price when the distance from the selected zone is inevitable. It is important to highlight the level and work as soon as the price reaches these values.
How is the usual set of positions made
Opening a position in a certain direction, as soon as the price goes against the desired forecast, closing with a stop loss, abandoning the transaction, searching for a new entry point, and trying to predict the direction, is an extremely difficult task.
An example of a set of positions taking into account the theory of price orientation and risk control R
The mechanics of position recruitment are based on clear and simple principles of operation, flexible thinking, quick adaptation to market sentiment.
If you start to apply these mechanics in practice, you will notice how at first glance simple things are difficult to do the practice. There will be a feeling that nothing will work, there is no logical explanation for this, eventually, everything will be lost and a big chaotic high-speed car will crush you.
This is the basic principle, as long as the market is such, you have very little chance of the death of capital. While large funds, investors, and someone else is fighting among themselves for huge movements, we do not necessarily have to accept their rules of the game and play on their territory in predicting the general and long-term direction of the market.
You should think with your head and look for benefits primarily for yourself, taking into account all the nuances of what is happening.
But how to be flexible?
Constantly turning over a position is completely unprofitable, in the final execution, losses exceed the target profit. It is not at all clear where and when to put stops, overturns, and takeaways.
This is where the risk control system R will help us
She kicks down the door, breaks into our strategy, and, as the most important puzzle, falls into its rightful place!
From my experience, the optimal risk per trade for a beginner is $10
With a smaller volume, there will simply be no motivation to work.
But it is worth remembering that the deposit should not be extremely small, as it will not withstand a series of unsuccessful transactions
For example, if the deposit is $100, 1R= $10, the power reserve is 10 stops, this is extremely small
But with $ 400, you can already try, since the probability of getting 40 stops in a row is extremely small
Example of risk calculation for a $1000 deposit
The risk is reasonably low
R=$10
Power reserve 1000/10=100
100 stops
I recommend having a power reserve for the 200R series, from practice I can say that for training and the first results will be enough.
All calculations are carried out without taking into account the commission
A few tips for improving efficiency:
- Do not risk your funds in vain, TradingView provides an excellent opportunity for paper trading (demo) completely free of charge, where you can try out any of your ideas and strategies.
- Search for highly volatile tools and work with them.
- Analyze the broker (exchange) for conditions, commissions play a particularly important role, pay attention and look for more favorable conditions.
- Before you start trading, you should have a clear action plan, the most important component of which should be a risk control system.
- Your stop should be tied only to the mathematical component of the transaction.
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DIVERGENCE IS CONVERGENCE
✅There are several main ways to work on the stock exchange in trading. Technical analysis, for example, is recognized as effective and is used by almost all market participants. But the disputes about indicator analysis do not stop for a long time. Some traders talk about the backwardness of the method because trading operations are performed faster every day. Others build successful strategies based on one or more indicators. Still, others combine two methods to find successful market entries and get an effective tool for making money on the stock exchange. Divergence is often used for this, which will be discussed below.
🔴What is divergence
Divergence is one of the strongest signals that indicator analysis can demonstrate. To obtain it, one of the possible oscillators is used. The divergence conditions are that the curve of the price chart diverges from the indicator data. For example, with an uptrend, the price continues to move up, while the oscillator shows a decrease in the interest of the main participants of the trading system. In this case, we should expect a change in the direction of the price.
Such a change does not always mean a new trend. Sometimes it can be a normal correction or price fluctuation. To determine the exact forecast, the methods of technical analysis of divergence are used. The result largely depends on the timeframe, sometimes on the support and resistance levels.
⚠️There is also an opposite process — convergence when the price of an asset decreases, and the indicator shows growth. This process is called convergence. Both signals are used in the Forex market, but they are known collectively as "divergence".
There are bullish and bearish divergences in the Forex market. In addition, divergence is divided into three types:
1️⃣Classic divergence.
2️⃣Hidden divergence.
3️⃣Extended divergence.
❗️To successfully trade currency pairs on Forex, taking into account divergence, you need to learn how to correctly read information from the market. A combination of indicators and fundamentals of technical analysis will help in this. Divergence plays an important role, so its indicators cannot be ignored.
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