The Basics - Trend LinesTrend lines are used in technical analysis to define an uptrend or downtrend. Traditionally, uptrend lines are made by drawing a straight line through a series of ascending higher troughs (lows). ... With downtrends, trend lines are formed by drawing a straight line through a series of descending lower highs.
In an uptrend, the “imaginary line” acts as support and in a downtrend, the line connecting the points at swing highs become the resistance.
Although we can go into what and why – the logic for trend line, is to keep it simple. It’s another subjective area and people like to spot patterns. It’s human nature.
This shows in it's most basic form the concept of a trend line.
In an uptrend we want to see, higher highs as well as higher lows as shown below;
And in a down trend, the opposite is true - Lower highs & lower lows to create the pattern as per main image of this post.
Many other techniques and indicators use this concept, and perhaps the most famous being Elliott waves.
Here's a post on Elliott basics;
This then all points back to Dow Theory - where markets have 3 cycles and 3 waves (another lesson for another time) in short;
Here's also a post covering the Dow basics;
You can also use Moving averages as part of "working out the trend"
And her is another simple guide to MA's (moving Averages)
We thought it would be interesting to post, more of a beginners post that our usual stuff. Hope this helps some of the newer traders.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Forex-gold
DeGRAM | GOLD consolidation Although gold has exited the channel, there is no confirmation that the instrument has changed its trend to a downtrend.
If we traverse the channel, then we see horizontal accumulation, range, a clear lower border (3 touches).
The trend is upward, the global key point has not been reached, it is possible that large players do not have enough energy and it is necessary to accumulate it before the distribution and achievement of the goal.
For now, I'm sticking with long formations.
I expect growth from 1855 to the border of the canal.
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Nice 1:11 Risk:Reward Sell on XAU/USD!Gold has recently began making LH & LL after positive US data, but has since recovered a lot of its losses. Although confluences for this trade are strong (resistance + trendline 3rd bounce + 78.6 fib level) i do feel as though gold could push higher. Targets are 1875 --> 1855 ---> 1843
Emotional Analysis I have posted recently on Wyckoff, Elliott cycled, Gann education and covered psychology.
The Thing is - as a long time trader, you often see new comers and the assumption is more indicators, more stuff = better results. Take a step back and view this from 30,000 feet. You looking at finding an edge, an edge can be as simple as risk management and positioning yourself with a great risk to reward system.
The problem is, if there was an algo or one indicator that could make you rich. The world would quickly run out of doctors and postmen.
What Elliott, W.D.Gann, Wyckoff, Dow and others clearly understood - was not the technical count on the chart, or if this is a UTAD or a spring event. What they appreciated was human nature - psychology.
I wrote this post to show how the mindset fits into the chart - When everyone started posting the "Wall Street, cheat sheet" and asking - Where are we? I would respond, depending on where you bought or sold. It's not a group thing. Unless you refer to sentiment - which is another topic again.
The issue is - everyone is looking to have their hand held. Indicators can be useful of course. But you cannot depend, rely or only take buy and sell signals.
Make yourself sheep and the wolves will eat you.
Benjamin Franklin
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So whilst people assume The Elliott's and the Gann's where the titans of technical. There's a deeper skill they tapped into. Emotional analysis. When studying Elliott, you can walk through a certain journey of why the price moves up & pulls back. Why it rapidly grows in wave 3 and why the 4th becomes messy. Elliott knew what drove these moves & how the retail traders follow on like sheep.
click link for full article
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Wyckoff and Dow - this is not a lesson on the technical side. It's an eye opener.
Wyckoff could make a schematic of the logic and emotions inside the chart and simply plotted it. Dow, simplified it into 6 market tenets. But either way they knew more about the market psychology than they did the chart.
If you are looking to trade alt coins - you need to understand the project, the team & just like investing in a stock. Get a feel for the company.
This last week, I have seen social media posts about "this guy lost this, that or the other" All blaming and pointing fingers at Musk - the truth is if you need to follow a celebrity for stock picking. Chose another sport. Doctors, lawyers, accountants and many professions take many years just to qualify - why is crypto trading any different?
Professional traders know this - and currently it's like having penguins in the water for the first time, the pro's are the sharks.
PSYCHOLOGY This is all it boils down to.
We assume big brother is watching, we assume stocks, crypto etc all being manipulated. There's often talk about FOMO & FUD. Wyckoff knew this as the "Composite man"
Truth is - retail do it to themselves 90% of the time, trying to catch tops and bottoms. Not learning market phases or cycles and then blaming everyone else for their mistakes. Everyone wants to strike it rich, one trade and millions. Seems to be the mentality. It needs time & proper risk management.
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If you can take a step back and see the market with "emotional vision" switched on, you will see why Elliott & Wyckoff are applicable today - Humans don't change, the psychology and mindset is still the same. Market manipulation is strong and real - it's just not what you think.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
GOLD BUY AND SELL ENTRIES AND EXITS! WEEK 6/6-6/11How I trade -
Buy at support or WAIT once thee buy entry has been broke . If support breaks more than 15 pips than ride that SELL ENTRY to TPs (Take Profit) 1-3. Trail stop 15-20 pips behind each TP. Same thing at resistance, sell or WAIT and sell once thee SELL ENTRY has broke. but if broken by 15 pips then enter the buy and ride to TPS 1-3. Each TP is a different level of support and resistance so be wary of reverses during each bull and bear run!
Gold - Price Testing Long Term Ascending TrendlineAre we going to see some bearish PA if we break this ascending trendline?
Check out what happened last time we broke an ascending trendline!
If we do see a break and downside movement, keep an eye on our marked shorter term key levels for potential bounce points and areas of support.
BUY ON XAU/USD BUY LIMIT SET FOR XAU/USD
Except this to Continue in a bull trend in to the 1780s area , but we won't enter in this consolidating zone , im instead placing a buy limit as I except a big wick down like before then spikes back up continuing the trend ( Spike down to liquidate RETAIL investors)
Gold (Xau/usd) Sell setup to 1839 Price is approaching a critical zone based on previous market pattern that i broke down few month ago. based on the price level 1905 acts as a strong level of poc or liquidity zone . we could expect price to continue as the volume dry out for reversal around 1905-1915.
follow me for a video breakdown for this gold setup!!
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Gold (Xau/usd) Buy towards 1905 levelWe could expect price to retrace to 1862- 1860 level to grab liquidity before heading towards our take profit around 1905. based on the Ema we still see a nice trend to upside and price just broke the descending channel . above all price is attracted to our poc level of 1905 which i will explain in a video break down soon.
follow me for more update and video breakdown
Bitcoin will continue to fall in the coming days | $24K As youve probably seen by now, bitcoin has followed wyckoffs distribution almost perfectly, and with that said, we should expect PHASE E to play out, a mark down, which would lead us all the way to $20-24k. From there id like to see price consolidate/accumulate for a 1 or 2 weeks before we get a push to the upside.
GOLD completion of growth, next step is FALLGold pushed off strong support zone 1798.44. In this zone, the support level and strong lines of June 2016, December 2015 and June 2019 intersect. From this zone, the price started to rise and now almost came to the resistance level of 1878.89. I expect a reversal from this level and a fall back to the support area of 1811.42. This will be our goal.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad👩💻
GBPUSD 100% correct The Analysis
I have posted on my previous analysis that if a lagging span broke out from the Kumo cloud then we should go long. You can check my previous chart on GBPUSD.
In this Chart, the Lagging span has broken out of the cloud. Signal accuracy 100% using Fibnoacci, Ichimoku and Eliott wave.
GOLD basis of GROWTH - SUPPORT line of 2018As you remember, the price first broke through the support line 1803.19.
After that, it pulled out of it and rolled back again as a correction.
Yesterday we expected the price to fall to the line at 1803.37.
And today I extend my forecast as the price continues to fall. I expect that the first thing the price touches the support line 1803.37 and only after that it will reverse and start growing towards the resistance line. Thus, my final target is the resistance line at 1850.53.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad👩💻