BiTri weekly broad market analysis FX Indices Commodities Crypto- Indices -
Started a downtrend lost a crucial support and the selling continues today.
I think the downtrend will continue a while longer. I am aiming for that 2700-2800 area with the SnP.
The DAX and Dow Jones have the lowest spreads of them all, twice as cheap relative to the typical ATR than S&P500 EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD. And also they behave "nice".
Bitcoin got better but a few weeks ago I compared the DAX to BITCOIN on the 1 minute chart and the difference was shocking.
They can be day traded.
- FX Majors -
Currencies still pretty dull, but there are a few things going on.
EURUSD dull
USDJPY ???
GBPUSD ???? Dull
AUDUSD did exactly what I said lol. Did not participate in it because all my conditions were not there.
USDCAD the price action is zero, and the range is 0.
USDCHF started moving, but it's probably going to turn back to dull like the rest.
No point buying a break. If it goes up up up I'll buy at the top (a little pullback).
USDMXN duller by the day
Let me zoom in maybe something is going on... The range still decent, it is "normally" 50% bigger than other FX.
EURJPY dull, even zooming in it's not that great. I can't play around this.
- Commodities -
Gold bottomed. BUT. You don't fool me. You don't fool me. You don't fool me. Da da da da dah. You don't fool me those shinny eyes. If it traps fomo bulls in the 1300-1325 area (People are asking questions like "With stock market so expensive will gold rally into a new bubble?" It is super early and some people cannot help but FOMO in as early as now); then guess what I will do? SHORT IT TO THE GROUND!!!!
(If every one knows about something then there is no edge)
Oil rapidly bounced, but failed to break 63$ and went back down. I considered re-buying if I see a triple bottom but no I am not going to. I will buy again in the next demand area shown here.
Soybean futures my man. Spreads are a little high but it's not awful either especially considering how dull currencies are. I'll join the downtrend at the end of the ABC correction.
- Crypto -
Bitcoin entered supply area today. the retailers with no experience and no clue are very massively betting on the upside and even started celebrating the end of the bear market (for the 20th time since 20k). Irrational exhuberance usually ends well :)
- FX minors -
GBPAUD maybe a quick buy here. EURAUD already going up. Maybe this one follows with a delay. Slow bots.
Swedish Krona still at all time low.
So to sum up:
Entire Forex market is dull, and I only see a few potential swing trades here & there.
Indices are downtrending. Possible day trades on Dax & DJI.
Gold baiting bulls I think. Will short when it "makes a new high and reverses the trend".
Oil I am going to buy back in at a lower price. IF.
Soybean futures I want to join the downtrend after an ABC completes.
Bitcoin exit pumping. Entered in massive supply today (after slowing down below it so I don't expect it to get far).
I might daytrade GBPAUD, that's pretty much all I got in the DUUULLL entire FX market.
That's all folks.
Forex-gold
Broad market TA. Indices Currencies Commodities. 22 April 2019.Indices
S&P 500 and Dow Jones are both in the same situation and might retrace soon, by end of month, just posted an idea about this
The DAX CAC40 and the Footsie are going up up up (and not at ath), I would want them to pullback and bottom while US indices either top or drop, and I would then buy. Would like to be short US indices and long europe ones in the near future.
Majors
US currency indices are all so flawed (and DXY volume is not enough for it to be otherwise relevant). Should I make my own to check us dollar strength?
EURUSD I am looking to either buy or sell if the conditions at that time will be right.
USDJPY I want to short.
GBPUSD AUDUSD USDCAD are all so bad. GBPUSD looks like complacency.
USDCHF it's a bubble! Tulips! I would definitely buy if sellers don't overwhelm us and buyers are still present. Friday SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks, going to play around this check it out.
Minors
USDMXN, I am watching this weird situation I do not know what to think. Long term uncertainty? Not doing anything for now.
EURJPY, I could buy... But shorting the Yen is more profitable and I'm not sure here with EURJPY...
I'll watch EURUSD USDJPY and EURJPY, maybe I'll do some special combo.
Wednesday there is a Monetary Policy Statement in Japan it's pretty important, Half of Economists Now Expect BOJ's Next Move to Be More Easing (wtf do they know thought).
The USA publish their real GDP results. Ya all know it's going to be disapointing. Even if it's not it will be a sell the news event I bet with stocks "going up on trade hopes" for ages.
Imma just short the USDJPY & long the EURJPY and no matter what the boj says idc. Idk we'll see.
EURAUD sucks.
GBPJPY, just waiting. No trades on H1. Only a big swing trade maybe in a while. I should poke people about the pound and if I get "you have no idea what you are talking about" and affirmations that the pound goes higher, it will confirm the complacency thing XD Ye idk I am just waiting.
Gold Oil Crypto
GOLD still in a downtrend after rejecting that triangle resistance on the weekly chart 2 months ago, currenctly recovering, will use the opportunity to short if I get a good entry. At that rate the price should get into my buy area ~1225 in a month or two. Expecting it to tighten for the rest of 2019.
USOIL spiking up, still strong uptrend. So strong I do not know how to get in. I don't know what to target either. I guess it could keep going up all the way to 75$. Oil is stupid.
BITCOIN I am thinking of being a buy-only on this dumb ponzi, which means I would not have to use Bitmex, tired of their cancer coinflip funding and frozen engine each time price spikes up and can't place orders while cashed out (short*0).
I prefer being able to estimate and predict everything, to me funding is pure coinflip.
I actually decided to be buy only with Bitcoin 6 months ago, but shorted 2 months ago to hedge what I had on mex... Tired of that place takes too much effort for no reason.
+ CRYPTOs: Quitting Bitmex I am not limited to Bitcoin too, ignoring the wash trading these are the 5 most trading crypto's: BTC ETH LTC XRP BCH, I might look at those, I don't know yet.
They are correlated, but not that correlated, the ath tops did not even happen at the same dates.
So it's quite like indices.
These 4 should be enough. Why do I feel I am going the easy route taking advantage of greedy delusional idiots? It's for the greater good they're wasting a ton of electricity and idiots need to get crushed anyway. I need to backtest my strategies with these crypto's thought, thought I could close my eyes, buy and scale in and it would always bounce, they'll always be casino jockeys "buying the dip" and "not missing on the bottom" every time price gets pumped a bit.
What a pos ponzi.
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