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XAUUSD strong down opportunity to big falling 1. Resistance Zone Validity – The marked resistance zone appears strong due to multiple rejections. However, if the price breaks above this zone with strong bullish momentum, a further rally may occur instead of the expected drop. 2. Support Strength – The lower support around 2,890 is a key level. However, if buyers aggressively step in before reaching it, the price could consolidate or reverse prematurely, invalidating the expected bearish move. 3. Market Context – Fundamental factors like economic data, interest rates, or geopolitical events could impact gold prices, overriding this technical setup. 4. False Breakdown Risk – Price could briefly dip below intermediate support and then reverse sharply, trapping sellers in a bear trap
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Fx_Oliviaa
2
Us30 strong bullish opportunity 1. Overly Bullish Bias The analysis assumes a clean breakout above support and a strong push to resistance. However, Dow Jones is known for fakeouts—meaning: A false breakout above resistance could trap buyers before reversing. A liquidity grab below support might happen before the real move. 2. Weak Confirmation for the Uptrend There's no clear volume confirmation—breakouts need high volume to be valid. Price is consolidating near key Fibonacci levels, meaning a reversal is just as likely as a breakout. A better approach would be waiting for a strong retest and breakout confirmation. 3. Ignoring Key Fibonacci Levels The chart includes multiple Fibonacci levels but does not integrate them into the projection. The 2.618 (43,535) and 3.618 (43,446) levels suggest possible retracements before an upward move Instead of an instant push-up, a dip to test Fibonacci support is likely. 4. Resistance Might Hold Strong The resistance area is broad, meaning: A rejection at resistance could lead to a short-term bearish pullback. The market might range between the two levels instead of moving in a straight line. Alternative Scenario: Instead of assuming an instant bullish move: 1. Bearish Trap First: A false breakout above resistance to trap buyers, followed by a drop. 2. Deeper Retest: Price could revisit support or a Fibonacci level before a true breakout. 3. Wait for Volume Confirmation: If resistance breaks with strong momentum, then an entry makes sense
SKILLING:US30Long
by Fx_Oliviaa
AUD/USD – High Probability Long Setup1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position Today's AUD/USD trade was a perfect setup combining Fibonacci retracements, institutional order flow, and seasonality trends from Prime Market Terminal. The confluences aligned well for a high-probability long entry. 💡 Entry Details: ✅ Entry: 0.6380 (Key demand zone + Fibonacci golden zone) ✅ Stop Loss: 0.6365 (Below market structure) ✅ Take Profit: 0.6429 - 0.6450 (Previous supply zone & liquidity target) ✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1 🎯 Result: Currently in profit, monitoring for further upside! ✅ 2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences 📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Textbook Pullback & Bounce Price retraced into the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (0.6380 - 0.6365) and bounced perfectly. The bullish move followed an impulse leg, suggesting smart money accumulation in this zone. 📈 Smart Money & Order Flow – Trading with Institutions 🔹 Order flow from Prime Market Terminal shows major liquidity pools accumulating long positions. 🔹 DMX Data: 43% long vs. 57% short, indicating potential for a reversal as shorts get trapped. 🔹 COT Data: Institutional traders increasing their net long exposure on AUD. 🕵️‍♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long 📊 Seasonal Prime data indicates AUD/USD historically trends higher in late February & March. 📅 Next 3-5 day forecast shows bullish probability, reinforcing the long bias. 📉 Technical Confirmation – Structure & Momentum ✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart ✅ Price is trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288) ✅ Broke above short-term resistance, confirming upward momentum 3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade 🔹 Trading with smart money flow and against retail sentiment increases trade probability. 🔹 Seasonality trends aligned perfectly, adding confidence in the setup. 🔹 Fibonacci, EMAs, and Prime Market Terminal data provided a precise entry. 🔹 Patience and risk management ensured a well-executed trade. 📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for AUD/USD? 🚀 With this bullish breakout, I’m looking for further longs on dips, targeting the 0.6450 - 0.6480 zone. 👀 What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Are you long or short? Let’s discuss in the comments! 🔗 Follow me for more institutional trade setups & contrarian trading ideas!
Long
by LDForex_
Analyzing the Australian Dollar: A Bearish Outlook for AUD/USDRecent developments in the Australian economy, particularly the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to trim its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, have sparked discussions among traders and analysts regarding the future trajectory of the Australian Dollar (AUD), especially in relation to the US Dollar (USD). This move, while anticipated, has implications that could shape market sentiment in the coming weeks. RBA Rate Decision: Implications for AUD The RBA's decision to cut the interest rate signals a cautious stance towards Australia's economic conditions. Although the RBA specified that this rate reduction should not be interpreted as the onset of a broader easing cycle, the act of lowering rates typically suggests underlying concerns about economic growth and inflation. Lower interest rates can diminish the attractiveness of a currency, as they often lead to lower yields on assets denominated in that currency. In the current environment, where other central banks may be maintaining or raising rates to combat inflation, the RBA’s rate cut could position the AUD unfavorably against its peers. Traders may interpret this move as a reflection of economic weakness, prompting a more bearish sentiment toward the AUD in the forex market. Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Supply Area and COT Report Recent technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD pair has triggered a supply area, aligning with insights from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report. The COT report illustrates that retail traders are predominantly holding long positions on the AUD, suggesting a potential mismatch between retail sentiment and market dynamics. When retail traders are heavily long, it can sometimes signal exhaustion in upward momentum, setting the stage for a bearish reversal. Furthermore, forecasting models indicate the possibility of an emerging bearish trend for the AUD/USD pair. Given these elements confluence—the RBA’s rate cut, the transition into a supply area on the charts, and the current positioning of traders—the market may be primed for a bearish impulse. In conclusion, the AUD appears to be facing headwinds in the near term. The recent rate cut by the RBA, coupled with retail traders’ long positions and our forecasting indicators suggesting potential bearish momentum, paints a challenging picture for the Australian Dollar. Traders should remain vigilant and prepared to act on signals that suggest a continuation of this bearish trend. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD: Navigating Supply Zones and Future TrendsThis morning, the EUR/USD pair opened at 1.05279, experiencing an initial push before retreating to around 1.04700. As I draft this analysis, the market is exhibiting a rejection spike, indicating volatile trading conditions. Currently, the price is lingering within a supply zone established last week, where we witnessed a notable bearish impulse followed by a sharp bullish reversal leading us to our present levels. In the absence of significant macroeconomic updates or policy news to influence the currency markets, we will be closely observing any developments surrounding tariffs and the US's stance on European security as they unfold this week. Additionally, the upcoming PCE inflation figures from the United States, scheduled for release on Friday, will be under the scrutinization of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials, as usual. Our outlook remains robust, as we anticipate a potential bearish trend in the market. The current price resides within a supply area, supported by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates a bullish sentiment among retail traders. Furthermore, our forecasting indicators suggest a looming bearish trend, consistent with patterns observed over the past decade during this timeframe. We are positioning ourselves for a bearish week ahead. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Forex: from 500 to 100k: is it possible? Hello, I am the professional trader Andrea Russo and today I want to answer a question that is frequently asked: "Can you get to 100 thousand euros starting from just 500 euros?" The answer, as we will see, depends on several factors, but above all on the strategy you choose to adopt, on risk management and on the discipline in respecting the investment rules. In this article, we will look at a specific strategy, a sort of "daydream" that, although theoretically possible, also involves a series of risks to be considered very carefully. Imagine starting with a capital of 500 euros. The strategy that I will explain provides that each successful investment will lead to a 30% gain on the invested capital, while each wrong operation will result in a 10% loss. In essence, if the market goes in your favor, you will earn 30% on the invested capital, but if things go badly, you will lose 10%. If applied correctly, this strategy could lead to significant earnings over time, but let's make some assessments. The strategy of earning 30% on each positive trade is based on the "magic of compound numbers", that is, on the fact that, every time you earn, you earn on an increasingly higher basis, thus increasing the invested capital. If you maintain a good rate of winning trades, the capital will grow exponentially over time. How many earnings do you need to get to 100 thousand euros? To calculate how many trades it will take to get to 100,000 euros, we can use the exponential growth formula. If we start with 500 euros and want to know how many winning trades at 30% we need to get to 100,000 euros, we can do the following calculation: 500 is the initial capital. 1.30 is the multiplier for each winning trade (30% earnings). n is the number of trades needed. Solving the equation, we get that n is approximately 17 consecutive winning trades (approximate). Therefore, you will need to make at least 17 consecutive successful trades, without any losses, to get to 100,000 euros. Dangers of the strategy Although the numbers may seem promising, it is important to remember that the market is not predictable and that not all trades will be winners. Furthermore, the 30% gains and 10% losses are hypothetical and do not take into account other factors, such as trading commissions, slippage, and market volatility. Here are some of the main dangers associated with this strategy: Volatility and risk of loss: The 10% loss per mistake, even if small, can quickly accumulate in a drawdown period. For example, after 5 losing trades, the capital could be drastically reduced. Psychological complexity: Maintaining discipline in such a volatile trading environment is one of the most difficult challenges for any trader. There is always a temptation to “catch up” losses or make riskier trades to increase profits, which can undermine the effectiveness of the strategy. Market Unpredictability: The market is never linear. Winning trades are not guaranteed, and even with a well-structured strategy, it is possible to find yourself in a prolonged drawdown period that puts the solidity of the plan at risk. Capital Management: The Heart of the Strategy The real secret of this strategy is not so much in earning 30%, but in protecting your capital and limiting losses. Capital management is essential to any type of trading, and it is what separates successful traders from those who fail. Here are some key principles for effective capital management: Position Size: Do not risk more than 1-2% of your capital on any one trade. This allows you to survive even a long period of consecutive losses, without compromising your capital. Stop loss and take profit: Use stop loss to limit losses and take profit to cash in profits when the market moves in your favor. Don't expect the market to go up forever, but set clear goals. Controlling emotions: Being able to stay calm, even when facing losses, is essential. Greed and fear are a trader's worst enemies, so keeping a clear mind is the key to long-term success. Diversification: Don't put all your capital on a single asset or trade. Diversification helps reduce overall risk. Conclusions In summary, yes, it is theoretically possible to get to 100 thousand euros starting from 500 euros, but it is not easy at all. Success in trading does not only depend on the percentages of gain or loss, but also on the ability to manage capital and stay calm in difficult phases. Happy trading.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Trump-Putin Ukraine Deal: Impacts on Forex Hello, I am Professional Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an important news that is shaking up the global markets: Donald Trump has apparently reached an agreement with Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, with an agreement that includes Ukraine's exit from NATO. The historic meeting between the two leaders will take place in Saudi Arabia and this move is expected to have a profound impact on the global geopolitical and financial landscape, especially on the Forex market. Geopolitical and Economic Impact: The announcement of a possible agreement between Trump and Putin could mark a significant turning point in the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine were to actually leave NATO, it would open a new phase of stability for the region, but at the same time it could create uncertainty on the geopolitical borders. This decision will directly affect the currency markets, in particular the currencies of the countries involved, the main European currencies and the US dollar. In the current context, the war in Ukraine is one of the main causes of economic instability worldwide. Any end to hostilities could lead to a reduction in economic sanctions and a revival of trade flows between Russia, Europe and the United States. These changes will be closely monitored by traders, as any geopolitical fluctuations could affect the dynamics of currencies globally. Implications for Forex: A possible agreement between Trump and Putin could have a direct impact on Forex, especially on the following currencies: Russian Ruble (RUB): A peace agreement would lead to a possible revaluation of the ruble. International sanctions against Russia could be gradually removed, boosting the Russian economy and supporting demand for the ruble in global markets. Euro (EUR): Ukraine's exit from NATO could lead to greater stability for European countries involved in the conflict, but it could also reduce the risk associated with energy and military security. In the short term, the Euro could appreciate against riskier currencies, but the situation could vary depending on the political reactions in Europe. US Dollar (USD): The dollar could react positively if the Trump-Putin deal is seen as a stabilization of international relations, but it will also depend on how the Federal Reserve responds to evolving economic conditions. A slowdown in the conflict could reduce the uncertainty that has pushed markets towards the dollar as a safe haven. British Pound (GBP): The pound could benefit from a possible de-escalation of the crisis, but again, domestic political factors in the UK, such as its post-Brexit negotiations, will continue to influence the currency. What to expect in the coming days: News of the Trump-Putin meeting in Saudi Arabia will be watched closely by the markets. If the details of the deal are confirmed, we can expect an immediate reaction in the currency markets. Forex is likely to see increased volatility in the currency pairs tied to the nations involved, with shifts in capital flows that could reflect a new perception of risk or stability. Conclusions: In summary, the Trump-Putin deal could be a turning point in the war in Ukraine and have a significant impact on financial markets, especially Forex. Investors will need to carefully monitor geopolitical developments and prepare for possible currency fluctuations. With the end of hostilities, stability could return to favor some currencies, but the situation remains delicate and constantly evolving.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
GBPCHF: Range BreakoutThis range breakout follows the same pattern as my other idea on CADCHF. In a very similar fashion, price has been in a range since September 2024. The upper range boundary has shown signs of weakening or breaching a couple of times over the past few months. However, price recently closed above this range level over the past two days, which indicates a higher probability of sustained breakout. The daily ATR is currently 64.3 pips. This sets my trading parameters at TP 32 and SL 64. Note that I'm only targeting 0.5x ATR because I scale into positions, but I also want to ensure I'm able to secure a profit with minimal holding costs.
Long
by FinancialGamblR
CADCHF: Range BreakoutCADHCF has been in a range since August 2024. This range is quite wide at approximately 160~ pips. Another observable detail is that the upper range boundary breached twice - once in November 2024 and then again last month, in January 2025. Right now, in early-February, price is showing signs of breaching the upper range boundary again. Unlike the previous breakouts, this one seems more sustained. Right now, the daily ATR is 41.4 pips. This sets my trading parameters at TP 20 and SL 41.
Long
by FinancialGamblR
EUR/USD - Bearish Bias🔹 4H Timeframe: • Still in a bearish structure → Major sell confirmations. • Took out buy-side liquidity (BSL) and inducement (IDM) before mitigating a supply zone → Bearish intent remains. 🔹 30M Timeframe: • Bearish structure confirmed, but price is forming a range inside the bearish structure. • This range has built a bullish structure, likely a manipulation move to strike supply before continuing down. • Took out SSL & IDM within the bullish structure → Tapped a bullish order block inside the range. 🔹 5M Timeframe: • Waiting for a flip entry → CHoCH break of major LH + liquidity sweep before entry. • Plan: If 5M confirms CHoCH + sweep + order block retest, I’ll enter for a continuation downward. 🎯 Target: Next major low inside the 4H bearish structure. 🛑 Invalidation: If price flips structure fully bullish and holds above supply zones. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EUR/GBP - Bullish Bias🔹 4H Timeframe: • Broke a major Higher High (HH) → Confirmed bullish structure. • Engineered liquidity at an order block → Expecting a move higher. 🔹 30M Timeframe: • CHoCH confirmed → Bullish intent established. • Took out sell-side liquidity (SSL) and inducement (IDM) to mitigate a 30M order block. • Plan: Looking for a bullish reaction from the 30M order block → Entry on confirmation for further upside continuation. 🎯 Target: Next major high. 🛑 Invalidation: If price breaks below internal structure lows.
Long
by Juicemannn
AUD/USD - BULLISH Bias🔹 4H Timeframe: • Price took out sell-side liquidity (SSL) before pushing up. • Broke a major Lower High (LH) → Confirmed bullish intent. • Targeting the previous high as the next liquidity point. 🔹 30M Timeframe: • CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed → Bullish intent. • Price is now approaching inducement before mitigating order flow. • Plan: Wait for price to sweep inducement, confirm a lower timeframe CHoCH, and enter off the order block for a continuation to the upside. 🎯 Target: Next major high. 🛑 Invalidation: If price breaks below previous swing low and structure shifts bearish. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
Price Action: Traps of Market MakersHave you ever felt confident about a market trend, only to watch the price suddenly reverse direction? Or found yourself following what seemed like a clear price movement, only to realize it was a false signal? Don't blame yourself or your trading strategy. What you're experiencing is likely the work of market makers who strategically create traps to trigger stop losses and pending orders. In this post, we'll dive into these market traps – learning how to identify them, understanding their different types, and most importantly, discovering how to turn them into profitable opportunities. What are market maker traps? At their core, market traps are deceptive price movements designed to create an illusion of a genuine trend, convincing traders to take positions before the market reverses course. 📍 1. The False Double Pattern Trap At its core, most market traps manifest as false breakouts of key levels. One of the most common examples is the deceptive Double Top/Double Bottom pattern. If you have traded these patterns, you have probably noticed something interesting: the second top is often slightly higher than the first, while the second bottom tends to be slightly lower than the previous one. This contradicts the traditional pattern theory, which suggests the second top should be lower, indicating market weakness. What's really happening here? Large market players deliberately push prices beyond these levels to trigger the stop losses and pending orders of smaller traders. Once they've captured this liquidity, the market reverses, revealing the trap. 📍 2. The Trend Continuation Trap This trap is perhaps the most devastating for traders. Traditional market wisdom tells us that a bearish trend consists of progressively lower highs and lower lows. When a previous high gets broken, conventional technical analysis suggests the bearish trend has possibly ended. However, reality often plays out differently. The price might briefly break above a local maximum, triggering stop orders and creating the illusion of a trend reversal. Instead of reversing, though, the price continues its original downward trajectory. This phenomenon is particularly visible on shorter timeframes like M30 or H1, where the fake breakout typically spans several candles. When you spot a breakout against an established trend, approach with caution – it's more likely to be a false signal than a genuine reversal. In contrast, during sideways market conditions, focus on trading bounces from the channel's boundaries (upper and lower borders). This more conservative approach can help protect you from these common traps. 📍 3. The News-Driven Trap One of the most common traps occurs during news events. You've probably experienced it: price suddenly surges in one direction, breaks through a significant level, only to reverse sharply. This classic "fake-out" catches many traders on the wrong side of the market. A key strategy for identifying these traps is to analyze multiple timeframes. Generally, you'll want to examine both higher and lower timeframes than your primary trading window. Remember: the higher the timeframe, the fewer traps you'll typically encounter, making your analysis more reliable. 📍 4. Session Opening Traps Trading session transitions, particularly around the London open, often create another type of trap. You might notice one price direction before London opens, followed by a different movement at the session's start, which then reverses later. These movements typically trigger stop losses at key levels before reversing. For detailed analysis of session traps, dropping down to smaller timeframes (15M) can reveal the true price action. For instance, you might spot a clear price rise followed by a decisive bounce off a significant level like 189.500. When you see a breakout of any significant level – whether it's a round number or a local high/low during a trend correction – approach it with skepticism. Until price firmly establishes itself in the new zone with clear confirmation, consider the possibility that you're witnessing a trap designed to collect stop losses. Remember this fundamental truth: price is more likely to bounce from a level than break through it. 📍 Practical Tips on Trading Traps ◾️ Multi-Timeframe Analysis. The key to successfully trading traps begins with analyzing multiple timeframes. When you spot a breakout of an obvious level, switch to the timeframe where the movement appears most convincing. This helps you better understand the trap's structure and potential reversal points. ◾️ Entry and Risk Management. Timing your entry is crucial. Look for the first signals of price reversal, but remember - proper position sizing is essential. Keep your stop losses tight, as the market may still produce additional spikes that could prematurely end your trade. While this approach might take practice to master, the reward potential is significant - you can set take-profit targets up to 10 times larger than your stop loss. ◾️ Position Management. Once in the trade, actively manage your position. Move your stop loss to breakeven at the first appropriate opportunity to protect your capital. 📍 Conclusion Trading traps effectively requires patience and practice. While this strategy can be challenging to master, the ability to recognize and capitalize on these traps gives you a significant edge in the market. Many traders fall victim to these traps; learning to spot them transforms you from potential prey into a skilled hunter. Take time to practice identifying these patterns before committing real capital, and start with smaller position sizes as you develop your skills. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
13
Xauusd weekly chart From a technical perspective, the overnight bounce and the subsequent move up on Friday validates the near-term positive outlook for the Gold price. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing slightly overbought conditions on the day chart and warrants some caution for bullish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation before positioning for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend from the December monthly trough.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JohnHarry_7
GBP/NZD Swing: Identifying Double Sell Limit OpportunitiesWe’re analyzing the GBP/NZD currency pair with a focus on establishing a swing position using a double Sell limit setup at key Fibonacci levels. This strategy aims to capitalize on expected retracements or reversals. Strategic Entry Points Our primary Fibonacci levels of interest are the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. These points are based on recent price actions and are where we anticipate potential reversals could occur. Short-Term Trend Focus By employing this setup, we aim to capture short-term market fluctuations on a daily basis. Monitoring price movements closely allows us to adapt swiftly to changing market conditions. Conclusion Traders should keep an eye on GBP/NZD for signs of reversal at these Fibonacci levels, implement effective risk management, and remain flexible in their strategies. This approach may provide opportunities to benefit from short-term trend reversals in this dynamic market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/NZD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
8