EUR | USD THE DOLLAR SHAKES, THE EURO DANCES with PipGuardEUR | USD THE DOLLAR SHAKES, THE EURO DANCES with PipGuard
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GOOD MORNING, DEAR NON-FRIENDS!
Yeah, because if you were my friends, we’d be throwing death stares at each other by the coffee machine every time someone dared to question my analysis. But instead, here I am—calm, composed, and totally not petty.
Today, we’re talking about EUR/USD. But first, a challenge: SHOW ME ANOTHER ANALYSIS FROM NOVEMBER THAT'S STILL ACCURATE TODAY.
Go check the related article. Do yourself a favor, so maybe you’ll stop busting my chops at the coffee machine. Oh, by the way, got a spare euro? No? Alright, no analysis for you.
Just kidding, just kidding. I know you’re smart, humble, and definitely not thin-skinned… or at least, I hope so, otherwise, get ready for another lawsuit.
Anyway, let’s be clear—my analysis is NOT financial advice.
No, you don’t need to mortgage your house and bet it all. Also, let’s be real, you don’t even have one! 😆
LET’S GET TO THE POINT.
Back in November, I called the U.S. recession.
Guess who didn’t call me? Bloomberg.
Guess who did? An investment fund.
And guess how it went? Badly. My spoken English is worse than a drunk tourist trying to order a beer in a London pub, so I panicked and hung up. 📞❌
Unless you want to talk money 💰 or women 💃, don’t call me. Write me. But again—only for money or women, not for emotional support. I’m not your therapist.
EUROPE, REARMAMENT, AND THE CIRCUS OF POWER.
Same old show:
The tall blond guy with the orange face? Check.
The bald dude in the tie? Still there.
The political circus? In full swing. 🎭
But let’s cut to the chase: if you’re in the Eurozone, BUY A HOUSE.
I did— 180K for 122 square meters of prime real estate. Solid deal.
And why?
Because the euro is set to rise. 📈
Because Russia is in an economic lockdown.
Because when sanctions lift, we’ll likely see a mini Russian market collapse.
And the dollar? The U.S. is reliving 2008, but this time, it’s even dumber.
What’s different? Instead of subprime mortgages, now it’s credit card debt spiraling out of control.
Yes, you heard me. Americans are sinking their economy with loans for iPhones, 85-inch TVs, and vacations to Hawaii.
And banks?
“No worries, the debt is under control.”
Oh yeah? So if you’re 100K in debt for a house, that’s a crisis, but if you blow 100K on home decor and luxury junk, that’s fine? Make it make sense.
But who cares—I’m Italian, I eat pasta for breakfast. 🍝 Their problem, not mine.
NOW, THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.
Trend is BULLISH, get that in your head. Look for long setups, not shorts. If you must short, do it only for retracements.
Reversal zone: 1.082 – 1.095.
If it closes above, we keep going up.
Watch out for liquidity between 1.099 and 1.10.
If price gets there, look for a key level on the 4H. If it reacts bearish, wait for confirmation before shorting. If it closes above, we send it to 1.21.
Other key support levels:
1.076 – 1.062, solid area for bullish reaction.
If that’s not enough, 1.060 – 1.052 is the ultimate buy zone.
If you mess up, toss your PC. 💻🔥
Kidding. Hold on tight, because price is going up from there.
IF MY ANALYSIS HELPED YOU, HIT FOLLOW, DROP A BOOST, LEAVE A COMMENT.
Or else… I’ll have to come find you.
Much love, PipGuard.
Forex-trading
EUR/USD Dips as US Dollar Gains Ahead of Fed DecisionAs I write this article during the European session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair has slipped below the 1.09035 mark, following its recent ascent to a five-month peak of approximately 1.0955 just a day earlier. The decline in this prominent currency pair can be attributed to the strengthened performance of the US Dollar (USD) in anticipation of the upcoming interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, has surged to around 103.70 after previously touching a five-month low of about 103.20 on Tuesday. From a technical standpoint, the price has approached our Supply area, prompting us to anticipate a retest of the entry point for a potential 2X trade opportunity.
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XAU/USD Trading Plan – Preparing for Volatility Ahead of FOMC! ⚠️This week, all eyes are on the FOMC meeting on March 19, where the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook. Gold remains in a bullish trend, but it has now reached a key resistance zone that could trigger a correction before determining the next move.
⚠ Important Note: This plan is only valid before the FOMC meeting. As the announcement approaches, traders are advised to close their positions to protect their accounts, as high volatility is expected.
🔥 Fundamental Analysis – What to Expect from the FOMC This Time?
📌 1️⃣ The Fed is Expected to Keep Rates at 4.25% - 4.5%, But…
Dot Plot & Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will shape market expectations for the future.
If the Fed remains hawkish, the USD could strengthen, putting pressure on gold.
If the Fed signals a dovish stance, the USD could weaken, potentially pushing gold higher.
📌 2️⃣ Global Central Banks Continue to Buy Gold
China, Russia, Poland, and India continue to increase their gold reserves, reducing their reliance on the USD.
This trend supports long-term bullish prospects for gold, although there could be short-term corrections.
📉 Technical Analysis – Key Levels for XAU/USD
🔹 Main Trend: Bullish, but facing strong resistance.
🔹 Price Channel: Gold is still in an uptrend, but a short-term correction may occur.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
📍 Resistance:
3,055 - 3,071 – If gold fails to break through this level, a correction could follow.
📍 Support:
3,021 - 3,009 – Watch this area in case of a pullback.
2,986 - 2,948 (FVG Zone on H1) – A deeper liquidity level if selling pressure increases.
🎯 Trading Plan – Pre-FOMC Strategy
BUY ZONE: 3010 - 3008
SL: 3004
TP: 3015 - 3020 - 3024 - 3028 - 3032
SELL ZONE: 3054 - 3056
SL: 3060
TP: 3050 - 3046 - 3042 - 3038 - 3030
⚠ Important Warning:
Ahead of the FOMC, consider closing all positions to avoid unnecessary risks, as market reactions can be unpredictable.
🔥 A major wave from the FOMC is coming – trade wisely and protect your capital! 🚀
Euro Climbs on German Deal, Awaits Fitch RatingThe euro climbed toward $1.09, nearing its highest since early November, as Germany agreed on debt reform and increased spending. Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz secured a deal with the Green and Social Democrat parties ahead of next week’s parliamentary vote.
Markets await Fitch’s rating decision on France, which is due after Friday’s close. Meanwhile, trade tensions rose as Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European wines in response to the EU’s tax on American whiskey. On geopolitics, Trump called his talks with Putin on Ukraine “very good,” expressing optimism for a resolution.
Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0800, with further levels at 1.0730 and 1.0650.
2 reasons the peso rally may not be over The USD/MXN has fallen over 2.5% in the past five trading sessions, dropping below 19.9 per USD for the first time since November 2024.
Two key factors could be driving this move:
1.
Investor distrust in the U.S. dollar – Market confidence is weakening due to Trump’s inconsistent tariff threats and other unpopular policies.
In contrast, the Sheinbaum government’s kid-glove handling of Trump is securing favourable trade concessions.
2.
Attractive interest rate differential – With Banxico’s benchmark rate at 9.5%, the peso remains appealing for carry trades.
The Federal Reserve’s decision this week could widen this gap further. Last week’s subdued U.S. inflation data is helping to fuel speculation of earlier Fed rate cuts, which may continue to support the peso despite trade uncertainties.
AUD-CHF Move Up Expected! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-CHF made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 0.5576 and the
Breakout is confirmed
Because the daily candle
Closed above the key level
So on the market open
We will be expecting a
Local pullback and then
A strong move up
Buy!
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GBP_CAD WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅GBP_CAD broke the rising
Support line after trading in an
Uptrend for a long time so
We will be awaiting a long
Overdue correction and a
Move down on Monday
Towards the target of 1.8500
SHORT🔥
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GBP-USD Bearish Breakout! Sell Limit!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-USD was trading in an
Uptrend and the pair was locally
Overbought so as we are seeing
A bearish breakout we are
Locally bearish biased
And we can set a Sell Limit
Order at 1.8649 with the
Target being 1.8465
And the Stop Loss at 1.8773
Slightly above the local high
Sell!
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$DXY: Dollar Strength or Dollar Dip?(1/9)
Good afternoon, everyone! 🌞 DXY: Dollar Strength or Dollar Dip?
With the DXY at 103.732, is the dollar flexing its muscles or ready to stumble? Let’s break it down! 🔍
(2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊
• Current Price: 103.732 as of Mar 14, 2025 💰
• Recent Move: Near recent levels, down from 110.18 peak (web data) 📏
• Sector Trend: Forex markets volatile, with trade and policy shifts 🌟
It’s a wild ride—dollar’s dancing on the edge! ⚙️
(3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈
• Role: Measures USD vs. euro, yen, pound, and more 🏆
• Influence: Drives forex and commodity prices globally ⏰
• Trend: Balancing U.S. policy and global demand, per data 🎯
King of currencies, but not without challengers! 🚀
(4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑
• Trade Tensions: U.S.-China tariff talks ongoing, per data 🌍
• Rate Cut Bets: Markets eyeing Fed moves, per posts on X 📋
• Market Reaction: Holding steady at 103.732 amid mixed signals 💡
Navigating a storm of global pressures! 🛳️
(5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡
• Rate Cuts: Could weaken dollar if Fed acts, per X sentiment 🔍
• Trade Wars: Tariffs disrupting supply chains, per data 📉
• Global Growth: Slowdowns hitting demand for USD ❄️
It’s a tightrope—risks aplenty! 🛑
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪
• Reserve Status: USD’s global dominance holds firm 🥇
• U.S. Economy: Still a powerhouse, supporting dollar value 📊
• Safe Haven: Attracts flows in uncertain times, per trends 🔧
Got muscle to flex when it counts! 🏦
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️
• Weaknesses: Vulnerable to rate cuts, trade spats 📉
• Opportunities: Strong U.S. data could lift it higher, per outlook 📈
Can it hold the line or break out? 🤔
(8/9) – POLL TIME! 📢
DXY at 103.732—your take? 🗳️
• Bullish: 105+ soon, dollar rallies 🐂
• Neutral: Steady, risks balance out ⚖️
• Bearish: 100 looms, dollar dips 🐻
Chime in below! 👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯
The DXY’s 103.732 shows it’s steady but tested 📈. Trade wars and Fed moves could swing it either way—dips are our DCA gold 💰. Buy low, ride high—time’s the key! Gem or bust?
EUR-AUD Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-AUD is trading in an
Uptrend and we are now
Seeing a nice bullish reaction
From the horizontal support
Of 1.7153 which reinforces our
Bullish bias and we will be
Expecting the pair grow more
With the target of 1.7417
Buy!
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EUR/USD: Insights and Tactics from My Perspective.Last week, the US Dollar experienced significant downward pressure due to discouraging macroeconomic data coupled with US President Donald Trump's tariff strategies, which raised concerns about a possible economic decline in the United States. As I compose this article, the dollar stands at around 103.710, and it appears poised to approach one of the two Demand Weekly Areas marked on the chart (link included below), where a pullback could trigger a shift in market dynamics.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that Nonfarm Payrolls grew by 151,000 in February, falling short of the projected 160,000 increase. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate slightly rose to 4.1%, up from January's 4%. Additionally, annual wage inflation decreased to 4%, down from 4.9% in the prior period.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair has taken advantage of the dollar's decline, currently trading at 1.08490 as I write this, with the rate moving closer to one of the established Supply Areas. For further clarity, the Futures 6E1 chart provides additional context, as seen in the link below.
Looking ahead, the US economic calendar is set to include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, which will be released on Wednesday.
As I anticipate this upcoming economic data, my approach for the EUR/USD involves waiting for the price to reach one of the identified supply zones. I plan to observe how the DXY behaves as it concurrently approaches the Demand area, keeping an eye out for potential reactions at these crucial levels before formulating any trading strategies.
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Gold Rallies Past $2,980 as Trade and Inflation Risks MountGold surged above $2,980 per ounce on Friday, hitting a record high and poised for a 2% weekly gain amid risk aversion and rising Fed rate cut expectations. Trump escalated trade tensions, threatening a 200% tariff on European wines after the EU imposed a 50% tax on U.S. whiskey. February's PPI and CPI data signaled easing inflation, increasing Fed flexibility for rate cuts and boosting gold’s appeal. Strong ETF inflows and continued central bank purchases, with China extending its buying for a fourth month, further supported prices.
Key resistance stands at $2,985, with further levels at $3000 and $3,050. Support is at $2,930, followed by $2,900 and $2,860.
Yen Benefits from Dollar's Broad RetreatThe Japanese yen held around 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from the dollar’s decline on a stronger euro and Trump’s tariff policies. His selective tariff exemptions and retaliatory measures weakened the dollar further.
Domestically, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida suggested possible rate hikes if economic projections align but emphasized that Japan’s monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with only minimal reductions in government bond holdings.
Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 147.10, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
NZDCHF: Intraday Bearish Reversal Confirmed?! 🇳🇿🇨🇭
NZDCHF formed an intraday bearish Change of Character
on an hourly time frame after a completion of a strong bullish wave.
I think that the market is going to correct and move down.
Goal - 0.5067
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Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold Amid US Tariff UncertaintyGold rose above $2,920 per ounce, nearing record highs, as a weaker dollar and trade uncertainty drove safe-haven demand. Trump granted US automakers a one-month exemption from 25% Canada-Mexico tariffs and hinted at more changes. A US official suggested lifting the 10% tariff on Canadian energy if trade conditions are met. Meanwhile, China filed a revised WTO complaint in response to new US tariffs. Investors await the non-farm payrolls report for Fed policy signals.
Key resistance stands at $2,923, with further levels at $2,955 and $3,000. Support is at $2,860, followed by $2,830 and $2,790.
GBP/USD IS GOING TO MELT !!!!!!!!!
GBP/USD
Daily analysis
------------------------------
Our sells unfortunately got smoked. Do I think she will drop? Maybe, but for me I have no other entries for the bears and selling on my end is done. These current bears should (theoretically) push price down but we shall see. It seems like the sellers want a cheaper selling point, hence the bulls pushing price high and higher. But for me those were my last bearish plays. I will be now only focused on the bulls to end the week strong.
Regards,
MR.OAZB
GBPUSD Week 10 Swing Zone/LevelsWeek by week pinched pips keeps increasing.
As highlighted last week, Weekly zone and levels are mapped based on previous week daily high-low relationship (ie Monday HL in relation to Tuesday in relation to Wednesday HL, etc).
Using the 5min candle for entry keeps the SL small btw 10-15 pips and TP ideally to the next level. Some swing levels are only marked after price interacts pre-calculated levels.
Two possible road maps for the week, a or b?
As always price action determines trades.
Is the ZIP DIP OVER? Is it a suitable time to Buy?Is the Base solid enough to drive the price to 3 OR will it require a manipulation below the base to test key support "2"?
THIS IS ONLY AN IDEA AND COULD BE RIGHT...
For the Fundamental lovers:
Also keep in mind:
Dow Jones Newswires:
"Zip Price Target Raised 5.9% to A$3.60/Share by Ord Minnett"