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GBPJPY Analysis (16th April 2024) Market Analysis PT2/2 (16th April 2024) GBPJPY Analysis On the 1 hour timeframe, price action created a bearish Change of Character after rejecting off a psychological level at 192.700. In the process of forming a 1 hour CHOCH, price also created as 15 minute orderblock that hasnt been tested. I am expecting price to retrace towards the 15 minute unmitigated orderblock before looking for potential sell confirmations during the london session. Do keep a lookout for this potential set up!
Short
by CallistoFX
XAUUSD Analysis (16th April 2024) XAUUSD Analysis Price action has finally started to show bullish intentions creating a 4 hour Change of Character after sweeping Liquidity at $2325 on Gold. This tells us price action is gearing up to continue to the upside, potentially creating new All Time Highs. 4 hour has created a bullish Fair Value Gap, so during Asian/London, i want to see price retrace into the 4 hour Fair value Gap before looking for Potential Buys. Confirmation wise i should see at least a 15 minute change of character, or 5 minute change of character if it gets tapped during the london session.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by CallistoFX
BITCOIN HALVING MYTHSIn a week, another bitcoin halving is expected to take place, which is expected by many cryptocurrency traders. Cryptocurrencies are still a dark horse for traders: sharp price fluctuations in both directions, high volatility attract traders with the supposed simplicity of making money. And although many consider the industry a bubble, there are still enthusiasts willing to take risks. What Is Halving In Simple Words? 📜 Halving is a reduction for rewarding miners for performing operations on the bitcoin blockchain network. Currently, the reward for solving equations for a block of data on the blockchain is 6.25 bitcoins. After halving, it will be cut exactly in half to 3.125 bitcoin. Basically, miners act as accountants in the blockchain network or as an equivalent of the collective Central Bank in the blockchain and serve as a guarantee of transparency and veracity of information: it is impossible to fake it in one block without other miners noticing it, but it is necessary to fake the entire chain of operations in the entire blockchain, which is practically impossible. Miners are responsible for processing all transactions: if there were no miners, there would be no new bitcoin transactions. How Bitcoin's Halving In 2024 Will Affect The Price? 📈📉 Bitcoin's halving in 2024 is one of the most expected and discussed events of the first half of this year. In most cases, analysts cannot clearly explain why the price of BTC (and subsequently other alts) changed, finding unconvincing reasons in hindsight. Therefore, the upcoming event is a reason to try to predict the future behavior of the price before it happens. Halving is a halving of miners' profits. That is, a miner bought expensive equipment, spends electricity in the hope that each block will be rewarded with 6.25 BTC. But then halving occurs and now the reward per block is 3.125 BTC. In theory, halving means that fewer coins will be mined and some miners will leave the market altogether. This will be followed by an increase in the scarcity of BTC, and therefore an increase in its price. At least, this is how optimists explain the growth of BTC price after halving. But the question is: how will the reduction in the volume of its production contribute to its price increase? 1️⃣ The Approaching Halving Is Already Priced In . This myth is taken from the fundamental analysis of stock market if investors are sure that, for example, if the Fed's interest rate is going to be exactly changed in a month, they buy or sell dollars in advance. However, this does not work in cryptocurrencies for several reasons: ✔️ Halving is embedded in the blockchain and for BTC it is done every 4 years. But that doesn't mean it is already factored into the pricing. ✔️ There are very few people involved in mining. And it is not a fact that investors are basically aware of what halving is and when it will take place. Short-term speculators may still be interested in this information. Those who bought BTC with the expectation that someday it will rise again (or did not sell it after a fall) are hardly interested in it. ✔️ The role of mining in the share of speculative circulation is not high. Market makers rule the market, which can simply squeeze miners with capital. 2️⃣ Bitcoin's Price Will Fall. The halving of bitcoin in 2024 may indeed affect the prices, but not as drastically as many investors would like. An argument in favor of a fall is the example of LTC, which got cheaper before halving profits. Compare the volumes of LTC and BTC, which occupies more than 54% of the entire cryptocurrency circulation. LTC is a speculative instrument, whereas BTC has a large share of long-term capital. 3️⃣ Halving Will Lead To The Annihilation Of The Mining Industry . Supporters of this myth argue that mining is becoming less and less profitable. In addition, more and more startups are being developed on more modern algorithms that do not involve mining. In reality, existing miners aren't going anywhere. Those who have already invested money in it will continue to "recoup" their costs. There will be no influx of new miners, so the mining industry will eventually disappear on its own. But halving will definitely not be to blame for this. ✅ Conclusion Halving bitcoin's price can affect the price significantly. The price may shift to one side or the other, but there are enough fundamental factors for growth, but not for a fall in price. Therefore, it is very likely that this event will be noticed.
Education
by Lingrid
4
BTCUSD Analysis (13th April 2024)Crypto Analysis (13th April 2024) BTCUSD Analysis On the Daily Timeframe, Price action has created a Huge dump due to the 800+ Million Liquidation across multiple different exchanges. Nothing fundamental changed about BTC just yet. Just the usual happenings in the crpyto space. Price has reached a daily orderblock and has shown strong rejections from that key area and closed the daily with a strong bottom wick indicating rejections. There are 2 scenarios i see playout. 1) Price has just flipped the new daily candle after creating another huge bottom wick, Buys from here at 67602 is possible to come up to fill the clean candle on the left caused by the sell off. I want to see at least 69252 be tapped. 2) Price fails to hold, breaking the bullish daily orderblock at $64572. Once we see a body candle closure below that level, Sells are alot more likely to occur and i will look for a break and retest set up for shorts to target $60,000.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by CallistoFX
EURJPY Analysis (12th April 2024) Market Analysis PT2/2 (12th April 2024) EURJPY Analysis On the 4 hour timeframe, price action has created a a nice support and resistance of about 40 pips wide. This tells us that price on EJ is currently consolidating. There are 2 potential scenarios here: 1) Price pushes higher, breaking through the 4 hour resistance, and retesting it before going higher. I am leaning towards a bullish Bias due to how the higher timeframe on the weekly and daily is also bullish. 2) IF price decided to break the support, i will wait until the over all Daily Orderblock fails, before looking for potential Sells.
by CallistoFX
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: In the KOG report on Sunday we gave the extension levels of 2365 and 2372 as bullish targets which as we can see we're extending in to and completed one of them. Yesterday we said unless we broke below the bias level we were likely to take liquidity from higher again, so put caution on the short trades. Again, the opportunity presented itself to long the market which we gladly took for a level to level red box trade adding to the other pairs that hit TP's making this one of the biggest Months so far in terms of completed targets and pip capture in Camelot. For that reason, we're going to take it easy now and wait for CPI unless a clean opportunity arises. So, what now? For the remainder of the session and the Asian session we have resistance now 2350-55 which if we manage to hold could give us the potential swing down into the support levels 2330 and below that our bias level 2320! Break above, and we have added a new level for everyone as the potential target region before another expected RIP. We've left the original chart illustration from Sunday's KOG Report as we did say there will be an extension of the move, so for now we'll stick with it unless anything changes tomorrow. Please remember, pre-event price action will entail choppy market movement and conflicting patterns as well as the potential small range forming. Please be cautious on your trading! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
7
GBPJPY Analysis (10th April 2024) Market Analysis PT1/2 (9th April 2024) GBPJPY Analysis On the daily timeframe, Price action has created a daily fair Value Gap. Since the over trend is bullish after creating a bullish Change of Character and a BOS to the upside, I am primarily looking for Longs. What i want to see price action do is to come into the daily Bullish Fair Value Gap and reject off it, creating a 15 minute/1 hour bullish Change of Character. This will tell me that price action is still bullish and we can continue looking for longs in alignment with the daily timeframe price action. Ideally price should come and tap into the 1 hour Bullish Orderblock where we can look for potential longs as an added confluence. Remember to Risk less when trading this Tomorrow as there is CPI and FOMC Minutes coming up so there will be increased volatility in the markets.
Long
by CallistoFX
EURGBP: Multiple Time Frame Analysis & Bearish Outlook 🇪🇺🇬🇧 Take a look how EURGBP reacted to a daily falling trend line on a 4H time frame. The market started to consolidate within a narrow range and was stuck within for 2 trading days. Today we see a strong bearish movement with a confirmed violation of the support of the range. It indicates the strength of the sellers. We can anticipate a bearish movement lower, at least to 0.8562 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
3
NZD/USD: Odds for NZ rate cut? NZD/USD: Odds for NZ rate cut? This week the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged at 5.5% Interestingly, as recently as February this year, the RBNZ was still deliberating rate hikes. Presently, the market attributes a 4% probability to a rate cut. The earliest feasible moment for a rate cut could be in November. However, the New Zealand economy entered a technical recession in the latter half of 2023, which could potentially prompt the RBNZ to consider rate cuts if economic fragility persists. Gareth Kiernan, the chief forecaster at Infometrics, anticipates a potentially more hawkish stance in the RBNZ's statement compared to February. Despite New Zealand's slightly more favorable interest rate differential, the Kiwi dollar has not managed to outperform the US dollar. Kiwi bulls are currently facing potential resistance at 0.6040 and then the 200-day simple moving average. On the downside, support could lay at 0.5993 and 0.5940. Traders might also like to closely monitor the upcoming US CPI figures. A positive surprise in the data could reignite momentum for the US dollar and push the NZD/USD pair down past its current weak trendlines.
by BlackBull_Markets
DEMO KING SYNDROME: DISADVANTAGES OF A DEMO ACCOUNTThis post is directed towards novice traders who harbor the belief that honing trading skills and mastering profit-making strategies is achievable solely through practice on a demo account. However, the unforgiving reality of statistics paints a stark picture: approximately 65-80% of novice traders find themselves facing financial losses within the initial months of transitioning to a real trading account. Surprisingly, the extent of practice on a demo account beforehand appears inconsequential in mitigating these losses. If your aim is to cultivate profitable trading abilities while safeguarding your account from losses, relying solely on a demo account will inevitably fall short of achieving this goal. DISADVANTAGES OF A DEMO ACCOUNT 🚫 A demo account works like a simulator, allowing you to do everything you would on a real account, but with virtual money instead of real funds. In essence, it's designed to help you get comfortable with the trading platform. PSYCHOLOGY 🧠 Trading on a demo account provides a risk-free environment, shielding traders from the consequences of losing real money and thus alleviating mental strain. Consequently, traders might exhibit a tendency towards more aggressive decision-making compared to their approach on a live account. In the absence of mental pressure and the fear of missing out (FOMO), errors are less likely to surface. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO STUDY THE PSYCHOLOGY OF TRADING 📝 One of the pivotal aspects of successful trading lies in the adept management of emotions. Yet, it's widely acknowledged that the emotions experienced on a demo account pale in comparison to those felt on a live one, making it challenging for traders to grasp how these emotions influence their decision-making. When a trader initiates a trade, it's akin to embodying a different persona altogether. A demo account falls short in providing a crucial element: it fails to address the fear associated with taking the first step into live trading; instead, it perpetuates hesitation. Every time a trader deliberates on transitioning to a real account, excuses surface: "I'm not quite prepared yet," or "I need to further refine my strategies," and so on. Despite spending an indefinite amount of time on a demo account, the leap to real trading remains elusive. NO NEED TO CAREFULLY OBSERVE RISK MANAGEMENT 📊 There's often a tendency to overlook the importance of diligent risk management. Why bother calculating the risk percentage for each trade or determining the stop loss length when there's no fear of losing money from a demo account? After all, it's easy to replenish virtual funds at any time. Consequently, even if a trader sets out to learn about risk calculation, they may approach it with less seriousness at a subconscious level. Consider this: A trader may achieve impressive gains, perhaps even exceeding 20%, in a single trade on a demo account. But can they replicate the same success on a real account? SLIPPAGES 🔢 Slippage is a critical consideration in trading dynamics. On a live account, brokers source quotes from providers, and ensuring that traders receive these quotes with millisecond precision is technically advantageous for the broker. This precision becomes paramount in algorithmic trading, where even a split-second delay can translate into a significant price shift of several pips. Conversely, in the controlled environment of a demo account, trades are executed seamlessly. However, it's essential to note that slippages, especially those spanning several points, can markedly impact outcomes, particularly in high-frequency trading strategies like scalping. The primary distinction lies in the timeliness of quote delivery: traders on live accounts benefit from real-time, accurate quotes, whereas those on demo accounts may encounter delays. COMMISSIONS $ On a demo account, commissions are often not fully accounted for. ALL FUNCTIONS OF THE TRADING PLATFORM ARE NOT ALWAYS AVAILABLE 🖥️ It's worth noting that not all features of the trading platform are consistently available on demo accounts. Certain brokers might opt to limit access to specific functions on these trial platforms, perhaps as a means of encouraging traders to transition to a live account. However, it's important to recognize that a demo account holds intrinsic value. It serves as a practical tool for grasping the fundamental concepts of trading. Particularly for those who are new to the platform, a demo account offers a risk-free avenue for gaining familiarity. Moreover, viewing demo trading as a game of chance is not uncommon. Just as some individuals enjoy racing or strategy games, others find satisfaction in virtual trading simulations. Over time, engaging in this activity can gradually pique interest in trying one's hand in the real market. CONCLUSION 💡 Novice traders often perceive a demo account solely as a simulator for mastering the art of profitable trading, which is a misconception that frequently results in losses when transitioning to a real account. However, the true purpose of a demo account is twofold: first, to acquaint oneself with the functionalities of the platform, such as executing trades, calculating trade volumes, and utilizing indicators; and second, to test trading strategies. If a strategy proves to be unprofitable on a demo account, it's highly likely to yield losses on a real account as well. Conversely, even if a strategy yields positive results during demo testing, there's no guarantee of success on a real account. The true mastery of trading with financial assets can only be attained through experience on a real account. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
6