USDJPY: Pullback From Support 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY looks very oversold after a strong bearish rally last week.
The price is currently testing a confluence zone based on a daily
and 4H horizontal supports.
As a confirmation, the pair formed a cup & handle formation on that
and broke its neckline.
I think that the price will reach 159.0 level today.
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Forex-trading
The Psychology of Trading:Identifying and Overcoming FrustrationFrustration in trading is an emotional state that traders experience as a result of unsuccessful trades, losing money, or being unable to follow their trading plan. It can be caused by a number of factors including unexpected changes in the market, errors in analysis or lack of discipline. Frustration occurs when expected results do not match reality or when a trader fails to achieve his or her goals.
Imagine this scenario: you've been eyeing a specific gift for your birthday, available exclusively at a single store. However, when the time finally arrives to make the purchase, you discover that the item is sold out – and there's no alternative option. This sense of disappointment, accompanied by feelings of annoyance and irritation, is a common experience known as frustration.
In the context of trading, frustration can manifest in similar ways. Imagine spending hours analyzing market trends, only to watch your carefully crafted trading plan fall apart due to unexpected market fluctuations. Or, picture yourself agonizing over a losing trade, unable to extricate yourself from a losing position despite your best efforts. In both cases, the emotional toll can be significant, leading to feelings of frustration that can compromise your decision-making and ultimately impact your overall performance.
📍 THE IMPACT OF FRUSTRATION IN TRADING:
➡️ Emotional Responses to Trading Challenges. Traders may experience a range of emotional responses to trading challenges, including irritation, anger, anxiety, and depression. Frustration can be particularly debilitating, as it can lead to feelings of dissatisfaction with oneself due to perceived missed opportunities or imperfect decisions.
➡️ Self-Doubt and Loss of Confidence. Frustration can also erode a trader's confidence in their abilities. A series of losing trades can lead to self-doubt, causing a trader to question their skills and judgment. This can have a negative impact on subsequent trades, ultimately resulting in significant losses.
➡️ Impulsive Decision-Making. Frustration can also prompt traders to re-evaluate their earlier decisions and seek changes to their strategies without sufficient analysis. This impulsive decision-making can lead to further mistakes and exacerbate the situation.
➡️ Loss of Motivation. As frustration builds, traders may experience a loss of motivation. The desire to achieve a goal or make progress in the market can fade, leaving them feeling disconnected from their trading activities. Without motivation, traders are less likely to make informed decisions or take calculated risks, which can hinder their long-term success.
Frustration in trading can have far-reaching consequences, extending beyond the trading arena to impact one's overall well-being. Prolonged frustration can lead to nervous system disorders, insomnia, depression, and even unhealthy habits. However, in the early stages, frustration can be leveraged as a motivating force. Its benefits include:
⚡️ Increased Motivation and Perseverance: Frustration can propel an individual to redouble their efforts and push harder to achieve their goals. Those who are initially unsuccessful may be more likely to give up, but those who persist despite setbacks can emerge stronger and more resilient.
⚡️ Creative Problem-Solving: Frustration can stimulate innovative thinking and inspire out-of-the-box solutions. When standard approaches fail, individuals may need to think creatively to overcome challenges, leading to novel and effective problem-solving strategies.
📍 MANAGING FRUSTRATION: A STEP-BY-STEP APPROACH
To effectively manage frustration, it's essential to first acknowledge and accept your emotions. Recognize when you're feeling frustrated and avoid denying the issue. Instead, focus on finding solutions.
🔹 Identify the Root Cause. To address the frustration, identify the specific trigger or event that led to it. This could be a particular action, situation, or decision. Once you understand the cause, you can develop a plan to address it.
🔹 Develop a Plan of Action. Create a plan that outlines potential solutions to the problem causing your frustration. This will help you feel more in control and empowered to take action.
🔹 Seek a Fresh Perspective. Talking to someone about your frustration can provide a valuable fresh perspective. They may help you see the situation from a different angle, and you may realize that the problem is not as severe as you thought.
🔹 Set Realistic Goals. When setting goals, aim for something achievable. Setting unrealistic expectations can lead to disappointment and further frustration. Instead, strive for a middle ground that is challenging yet attainable.
🔹 Work on Your Self-Esteem. Maintaining a healthy self-esteem is crucial for confidence and setting realistic goals. Avoid underestimating or overestimating your abilities, and focus on building a balanced sense of self-worth.
🔹 Emotional Management. Lastly, learn to manage your emotions by quickly shifting your focus away from negativity. Try to find something positive in the situation or practice mindfulness techniques to maintain a calm and centered state.
📍 CONCLUSION
In the realm of trading psychology, several emotions and thought patterns are common pitfalls that can hinder performance. Frustration, Fear of Missing Out, and rumination are all closely related to mistakes and failures, which can snowball into negative consequences if left unchecked. However, it is crucial to recognize that these psychological states can be transformed from liabilities into assets.
By acknowledging our mistakes, incorporating them into our learning process, and approaching challenges with creativity and resourcefulness, we can turn any psychological obstacle into an opportunity for growth. By doing so, we can break free from the cycle of negative thinking and cultivate a mindset that is resilient, adaptable, and ultimately successful.
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Is It End Road for the BEARS...?Hey Guys!
On the larger timeframe of the Monthly, Weekly and Daily, we see this market is bearish.
Over the past few days leading into weeks, we have seen the market gravitate to the north to reach higher prices. We are tempted to believe that all of that bullishness was to drive the market into our expected bullish reversal zone.
Market price is currently inside our Daily zone. We are looking to see reversals.
Where that happens, we will look to trade bearish.
In the unlikely event that the market breaks our zone and clears our protected high, we will deem come to the conclusion that the bearish of the daily chart is over, and we will look to trade Bullish on the Daily.
Until then, we will hold on to our bearish perspective.
Gold next sell Ahead 2372.00 - 2374.00#XAUUAD ( Update..! )
Till end Today gold I think will running with bullish market. Next resistance area located at 2375 - 2385. Better to avoid getting sell orders till reach that price or broke nearst support.
However I got some different idea also. In 15M timeframe after I analysis it shows me price will going to 2342.00 level after reaching 2364.00 - 2367.00 level. It's unusual for me. So be careful.
Are We Bearish on the 4 Hour Chart...?On the lower timeframe, we have seen a great deal of bullishness. But all of this bullishness on the lower timeframe of the 1 hour has been seen as a move to drive the market into our earlier marked out 4 hour reversal zone.
Market is currently in our reversal zone, and we are seeing some signs of reversals. We will wait for a confirmation of the reversal to enable us jump in on it.
It is expected that our zone will hold, the market will reverse, and we will see lower prices printed.
Our target on the downside is the 4 hour liquidity target at 1.06657
EURCHF: Time to Fill The Gap 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF formed a gap down after the market opening.
Consolidating during the Asian session, the price formed
a bullish engulfing candle, indicating the strength of the buyers.
The gap will most likely be filled to day.
Target level - 0.9707
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WHAT IS APY IN CRYPTO ?💹 APY (Annual Percentage Yield) is the amount of money an investor will earn in a year if the money is reinvested after each accrual period. The calculation formula is compound interest. In cryptocurrencies and decentralised finance (DeFi), APY is used to express the returns users can get from staking, liquidity mining and other types of income farming.
📍 UNDERSTANDING APY CALCULATION
APY allows users to understand what annual returns they can expect from their investments, taking into account reinvestment of interest earned. This helps to compare different investment opportunities in cryptocurrency startups:
➡️ Comparing the returns of different cryptocurrencies in staking, income farming on one exchange.
➡️ Comparing the yield of staking one coin on different exchanges.
The rate, which is calculated using the simple interest formula, only takes into account the initial investment amount. In comparison, APY gives a more accurate idea of how much an investor will earn, taking into account the re-investment of interest
📍 THE APY CALCULATION FORMULA IS:
APY is the Annual Percentage Yield
r is the interest rate per period (in decimal form, e.g. 0.05 for 5%)
n is the number of times interest is compounded per year
For example, if an investment has an annual interest rate of 5% compounded quarterly, the APY would be:
APY = (1 + 0.05/4)^(4) - 1 = 5.127%
This means that over a year, the investment would earn an effective annual return of 5.127%, taking into account the compounding effect. Note that this formula assumes that the interest is compounded at the end of each period, which is often referred to as "compounding frequency". The more frequently interest is compounded, the higher the APY will be.
📍 THREE CRUCIAL POINTS TO KEEP IN MIND ARE:
1️⃣ Frequency of interest accrual. The more frequently interest is accrued, the higher the APY will be, even if the nominal interest rate remains the same.
2️⃣ Reinvestment. APY assumes that all interest earned is reinvested, which increases the total return.
3️⃣ Transparency. APY provides a more accurate representation of potential returns compared to a simple interest rate.
APY is a forecast and actual returns may vary. It may be affected by market volatility, changes in interest rates, risks associated with a particular investment product. APY is specified for each product and each coin separately, you can find this information on the website of the cryptocurrency exchange. To understand the amount of earnings, you need to know the period of accrual of income. For example, accrual in staking can occur both every minute and every day.
In addition to APY, there is another key rate to consider: APR (Annual Percentage Rate). Similar to APY, APR is a rate that measures the yield of an investment, but it is calculated using the simple interest formula. While APR is commonly associated with the cost of borrowing at an interest rate, it can also be applied to investments. Like APY, APR is not a fixed value, as it can fluctuate based on network activity and other factors.
📍 CONCLUSION
APY is a critical parameter that represents the return on an asset with compound interest, taking into account the reinvestment of profits after each accrual. This metric is essential when evaluating the feasibility of staking or other income-generating opportunities. For instance, it can help you decide whether to stake Coin A or convert it to Coin B and stake it instead. By comparing APY rates for different coins and staking options, you can make informed decisions about where to allocate your assets to maximize your returns.
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Dollar Index (DXY): Very Bearish Outlook
Dollar Index leaves multiple bearish clues on a daily.
The market broke and closed below a support line of a rising wedge pattern,
then the price violated a key horizontal support.
Looks like sellers will keep dominating.
Next support - 104.5
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USD_JPY RETEST OF SUPPORT|LONG|
✅USD_JPY is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair is now
Making a long-awaited bearish
Correction but we are bullish
Biased overall so after
The retest of the horizontal
Support level of 160.000
We will be expecting a
Further move up
LONG🚀
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Price Discount in USD/JPY - Trend ContinuationThe market is a discounting mechanism. When prices rise too high, buyers start taking profits, aiming to buy at lower prices during an uptrend. This behavior sustains the trend.
In USD/JPY, this concept is evident. The swing low at 160.26 attracted strong buyers, pushing the price above the previous high, creating a new higher high. At this peak, buyers no longer saw value and took profits, seeking a discount to buy at a lower price.
Fibonacci retracement is useful in trending markets, as its key ratios indicate potential levels of trader participation. Currently, the price has been discounted to the 76.4% retracement level of the rally. The corrective ABC pattern brought the price from the high to the current discount.
Based on this scenario, we expect more buyers at this higher low, pushing the price above the recent high. Using Fibonacci as a target tool, we anticipate the price reaching at least the 123.6% level of the current rally.
The risk in this trade is if the swing low of 160.26 is broken, buyers won't be profitable, so this level will be our stop loss. The risk/reward ratio for this trade is 7.05.
Always think in probabilities.
GBPUSD May Keep Growing! Here is Why 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD broke and closed above a key daily structure resistance.
The broken structure turned into support.
Retesting the broken structure, the price formed a double bottom
pattern and successfully violated its neckline.
It confirms the strength of the buyers and indicates a highly probable bullish continuation.
Goal - 1.2795
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Is Biden quitting the biggest market risk right now? Bloomberg reports that dozens of U.S. House Democratic lawmakers are considering sending President Biden a letter urging him to withdraw from the race. The New York Times confirms this, citing a key Biden ally who reveals that the president understands the fragility of his candidacy following a lackluster debate performance last week.
Despite the speculation, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has dismissed these claims as "absolutely false," asserting, "The president said it is absolutely false. That is coming directly from him."
President Biden, at least publicly, remains steadfast, confident in his mental sharpness, and in another concerning sign, seemingly perplexed by the ongoing doubts about his capabilities.
However, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights one in three Democrats think Biden should step aside. When potential replacements were considered, former First Lady Michelle Obama strangely emerged as the leading candidate in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump, with a 50% to 39% lead. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris trails Trump by a narrow margin of 42% to 43%, indicating her competitive standing is comparable to Biden's.
Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas has become the first Democratic lawmaker to publicly call for Biden's withdrawal, expressing hope that the president will make the "painful and difficult decision" to step down.
EUR/USD Gains Amid Market Risk Flows: Short-Term Long PositionThe EUR/USD pair is trading in positive territory, slightly above 1.0750, following modest gains on Tuesday. While the technical indicators suggest a buildup of bullish momentum, the pair may face resistance in clearing the 1.0790-1.0800 range unless supported by significant fundamental factors.
As Wednesday's session began, risk appetite dominated the markets, making it challenging for the US Dollar (USD) to attract demand. The upcoming USD Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI forecasts suggest a bearish outlook for the USD, prompting traders to favor the EUR.
Our primary strategy is to wait for the price to reach a supply area before considering a potential short position. Given that the price rose from a demand area yesterday, our current focus is on a short-term long position, targeting the 1.0850 level.
Later in the day, the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data from the US will be closely watched for new market insights.
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GOLD Hits $2,300 Support Zone as Fed Officials Maintain Hawkish 🟡 Gold pushed lower to around $2,300 on Wednesday as investors weighed comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, who remain hesitant to cut interest rates amid persistently high inflation. This reluctance by the Fed to reduce rates has exerted downward pressure on gold prices.
However, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals strong institutional interest in gold, indicating a substantial long position. Additionally, the price has reached a significant demand area that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at the $2,300 support zone. This convergence of factors is further supported by a divergence, suggesting a potential bullish reversal.
Given these conditions, we are considering adding another long position in gold from this point, anticipating a rebound from the current support level.
Levels discussed on 3rd July Livestream3rd July
DXY: Needs to break 105.70 (61.8% retracement), to trade lower to 105.40 and bullish trendline. Below 105.40 could trade down to 105.15 support
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6110 SL 20 TP 45
AUDUSD: Could trade higher, look for reaction at 0.67 resistance level
USDJPY: Buy 162.20 SL 30 TP 80
GBPUSD: Look for reaction at 1.2740 (UK elections on 4th July)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0790 SL 20 TP 60
USDCHF: Buy 0.9020 SL 20 TP 50
USDCAD: Buy 1.3625 SL 20 TP 60
Gold: Breaking out of the range, above 2345 could trade up to 2355
EUR/USD Awaits ADP Data!EUR/USD Analysis
Current Overview
EUR/USD is retreating towards 1.0700 during the European session on Wednesday. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar finds stability after dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell. Cooling inflation in the EU keeps the Euro under pressure. Eyes are on the US ADP report and Fed Minutes.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support: 1.0650
Resistance: 1.0780
Recent Trends and Outlook
Euro Weakness: Primarily due to cooling inflation in the EU and comments from the ECB about further rate cuts.
US Dollar Strength: Supported by more hawkish comments from Fed officials and the possibility of a rate cut in December.
Recent Trading Range: 1.0730-1.0740, reflecting a consolidation phase.
Fundamental Analysis
Eurozone: The ECB is considering further rate cuts by the end of the year, with inflation at 2.5% YoY and core inflation at 2.9%.
United States: Debates on one or two rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 69% probability for a cut in September and 95% for December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Political and Economic Factors
ECB Forum in Sintra: Discussions between Lagarde and Powell. Lagarde highlighted progress in Eurozone disinflation, while Powell emphasized the need for more data before deciding on rate cuts.
French Elections: The upcoming round of elections in France could further influence the EUR/USD pair, introducing short-term volatility.
Short-Term Outlook
Bearish Risk: If bears regain control, EUR/USD could test the June low of 1.0665.
Bullish Potential: Renewed strength could bring the pair towards the 200-day moving average at 1.0790. A breakout of this level could focus on the March peak at 1.0981 and the January weekly high at 1.0998, with the psychological level of 1.1000 in sight.
EUR/AUD: Preparing for a Bullish Rebound in a Defined RangeThe EUR/AUD currency pair is presently trading within a defined range area. Technical indicators show that the price is in oversold conditions, suggesting that a rebound is likely. Our area of interest is the Demand zone, where we expect to see a significant price increase. This expectation is supported by the fact that institutional traders are holding major long positions, indicating their confidence in an upward movement.
Furthermore, we have conducted a seasonal analysis, which reveals that historically, the price tends to grow over the next two months. This seasonal trend adds another layer of confidence to our bullish outlook. Given these factors—the oversold technical indicators, the concentration of long positions by institutional traders, and the positive seasonal trend—we are now considering entering a long position in the EUR/AUD currency pair.
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GBP/USD Weakens Amid Caution Ahead of Fed Powell’s SpeechThe GBP/USD pair has retraced to 1.2618 against the US Dollar (USD) during Tuesday’s London session. The pair's weakness is attributed to risk aversion among market participants, driven by uncertainty ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech and the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, scheduled for release on Friday.
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair is moving towards a clear support/Demand area around 1.2540, which appears to be its next target.
Powell is expected to provide crucial insights into when the central bank might begin lowering its key borrowing rates. This week, investors will closely monitor labor demand and wage growth data to determine if the Fed will consider reducing interest rates starting from the September meeting, as suggested by the 30-day Federal Fund futures pricing data from the CME FedWatch tool.
Given the current market conditions, we are anticipating a bearish continuation towards the Demand area around 1.2540. Once this level is reached, we will look for a potential long position from that area.
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Gold wait for it..The pair now located at instable area. Next resistance located at 2332 and 2339 and 2352. And 2 Times touch with descending channel.
If broker the 2332 resistance gold will retested the 2345 - 2352 levels. How however if Got reasonable rejection from 2332 resistance zone gold will down to check the 2313 - 2316 next support zone.
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