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GBP/USD Weakens Amid Caution Ahead of Fed Powell’s SpeechThe GBP/USD pair has retraced to 1.2618 against the US Dollar (USD) during Tuesday’s London session. The pair's weakness is attributed to risk aversion among market participants, driven by uncertainty ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech and the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, scheduled for release on Friday. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair is moving towards a clear support/Demand area around 1.2540, which appears to be its next target. Powell is expected to provide crucial insights into when the central bank might begin lowering its key borrowing rates. This week, investors will closely monitor labor demand and wage growth data to determine if the Fed will consider reducing interest rates starting from the September meeting, as suggested by the 30-day Federal Fund futures pricing data from the CME FedWatch tool. Given the current market conditions, we are anticipating a bearish continuation towards the Demand area around 1.2540. Once this level is reached, we will look for a potential long position from that area. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Analysis: ECB Rate Cuts and Fed Policy DivergenceThe EUR/USD pair is facing significant macroeconomic factors, with the European Central Bank (ECB) contemplating additional rate cuts beyond the summer, aligning with market expectations of two more rate cuts later this year. Conversely, market participants are debating whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement one or two rate cuts this year, despite the Fed's June 12 meeting indicating just one cut, likely in December. Today's release of the EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y and CPI Flash Estimate y/y shows weaker prospects than forecasted. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, suggests that a weaker result could drive the EUR/USD pair lower. Additionally, the recent rise in the US Dollar is partly due to hawkish comments from Fed officials and the growing monetary policy gap between the Fed and other major central banks, contributing to the euro's decline. In the short term, the recent ECB rate cut, compared to the Fed's decision to maintain rates, has further widened the policy gap between the two central banks, potentially leading to more weakness in the EUR/USD pair. From a technical perspective, on the Daily timeframe, we have identified a Demand Area that has not been fully tested. We anticipate a possible bearish momentum today and will look for a potential long position if the price reaches our Area of interest. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Navigates Sideways Market with Focus on US Inflation DatThe recovery move in the GBP/USD pair from the 1.2660 level appears to have initiated following the price's rejection at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing low. Our long-term forecast anticipates closing this position around 1.2760, as the COT report indicates a potential for USD strength outweighing that of GBP. Currently, the price is trading within a sideways range, presenting an opportunity for a strategy of buying at lower, discounted prices and selling at higher, premium prices. Investors are now shifting their focus towards the upcoming release of the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for May, which is scheduled for publication on Friday. This data is crucial as it is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation. The core PCE inflation data is expected to provide fresh insights into the timing and extent of future interest rate adjustments by the Fed. Annual underlying inflation is projected to have eased to 2.6% in May, down from the previous reading of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the inflation rate is expected to have grown by 0.1%, a slight decrease from the 0.2% growth observed in April. Given these conditions, we are looking to establish a bullish position within this sideways trading area, leveraging the price movements to buy low and sell high as the market dynamics unfold.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/NZD Poised for Bullish Rebound: A Technical AnalysisLast week, the EUR/NZD currency pair experienced a notable rebound at the 1.7400 support level. This level has historically been a robust area where the price has shown resilience, indicating a strong possibility that the price will not easily fall below this threshold. The significance of this support level is underscored by previous reactions, affirming its strength. In examining the COT Report, it's evident that the NZD currently holds a stronger position on the buy side. Despite this, technical indicators suggest a potential bullish impulse for the EUR/NZD in this area. Specifically, the stochastic indicator on the daily timeframe shows an oversold condition, further supporting the likelihood of a bullish movement. Given these factors, our analysis leads us to consider a long position in the EUR/NZD. The combination of a solid support level at 1.7400, bullish technical signals, and historical price behavior makes this a compelling setup for traders looking to capitalize on potential upward momentum in the near term.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
AUD/USD Pulls Back Despite Higher-Than-Expected Inflation DataThe AUD/USD pair has given up some of its intraday gains after reaching close to 0.6690 during Wednesday’s European session. The Australian Dollar is struggling to maintain its rally, which was initially sparked by hotter-than-expected Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May. The latest CPI data revealed that inflation pressures surged, with prices growing at a robust pace of 4.0%, surpassing the forecast of 3.8% and the previous reading of 3.6%. The report highlighted significant price increases in fuel, food, electricity, and rentals, which have all contributed to the heightened inflationary pressures. From a technical perspective, having successfully closed our previous profitable trade on AUD/USD, we are now looking for another opportunity. We are targeting a pullback within the 38.2% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area for a new long position, adopting a conservative approach to this potential setup. Previous Winning Forecast:
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Rebounds in Sideways Area, Concludes Flat Trading WeekAs forecasted, the EUR/USD pair rebounded within its sideways range on Friday, wrapping up a week of flat trading. Traders found little reason to push the pair meaningfully in either direction. The week saw German import prices and labor figures broadly missing expectations, while the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation printed at forecast without sparking significant movement. German Unemployment Change data showed a higher-than-expected increase, with 19,000 more consumers added to unemployment figures in June, exceeding the forecast of 15,000 but still below the previous month's 25,000. The German Unemployment Rate also edged higher to 6.0%, compared to the forecasted hold at 5.9%. Our technical analysis remains bullish as long as the price stays within the upper side of the sideways rectangle. Currently, the price has rebounded from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the lowest major swing and has formed a triple bottom pattern. This suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend. We will continue to monitor the economic conditions to determine future moves once the price approaches the upper boundary of the sideways range. For now, the technical indicators support a bullish outlook, anticipating further gains within the current trading range. Initial Idea ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Slips as Investors Await US Housing DataThe EUR/USD pair failed to sustain Monday's gains, closing in negative territory on Tuesday. Currently, the pair is struggling to regain traction, trading around 1.0690 in the European session on Wednesday. The price appears to be rebounding from a demand area near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous swing lower. Additionally, a divergence on the H1 timeframe suggests a potential bullish impulse. According to the COT report, institutional investors are increasingly shifting their funds to the USD side. This movement supports a potential bullish scenario in the short term, but we anticipate a bearish scenario to follow in the future. With no significant macroeconomic data releases, investors are cautious about taking large positions. Later today, the US economic docket will feature New Home Sales data for May, but it is unlikely to significantly impact the market.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
THE EMOTIONAL TRAP: UNDERSTANDING THE DANGERS OF TILT IN TRADINGAs everyone knows emotions are one of the main components of success in trading. And not only in trading, but also in life. And the problem is that everyone knows about the negative sides of excessive emotionality, but they still keep making the same mistakes. The mistake is that in the moment of calmness a person underestimates the harm that emotions can cause. They miss the moment when signs of leaving the state of calmness appear and then they have to deal with the consequences of actions made in an unbalanced state. In trading, tilt is an equivalent of an ordinary argument. A situation in which a person goes out of the balanced state and actually loses control over what is happening. In legal terminology, this is called a "Heat of Passion". But if in law the legislation calls the heat of passion a mitigating circumstance, then in trading the market does not care about emotions - all the consequences fall on the trader. 📍 THE HIDDEN DANGERS OF TILT The more emotion is eliminated from trading, the more logical and effective it becomes. However, emotions are an inherent part of human character, and it is impossible to completely eradicate them. Statistics reveal that traders between the ages of 20 and 30, as well as those above 50, are most susceptible to emotional influences. This can be attributed not only to their level of experience but also to their ability to manage themselves and remain objective. Young adults, just starting their careers, often exhibit a sense of recklessness, while the older generation tends to become complacent and lose their grip on their emotions. 📍 THE DANGERS OF TILTING IN TRADING ARE: • Loss of emotional control, leading to impulsive decisions that are not guided by logic or a well-thought-out trading system. • Emotions, whether negative (such as fear and anxiety) or positive (like euphoria and excitement), can take over, causing mistakes and irrational decisions. • Emotional reaction to every emergency situation becomes a habit, making it challenging to separate rational thinking from emotional responses. This habit can be difficult to break and can lead to consistent mistakes in trading decisions. • Tilting can also result in the violation of risk management rules, such as closing profitable trades prematurely or holding onto losing positions for too long, which can have severe consequences for one's trading account. One common occurrence that can lead to tilt is when a trade almost reaches its target level, only to suddenly reverse, resulting in a loss or lost profit. This can be frustrating and demotivating. Another scenario is when a trader opens a trade based on an obvious trend, only to see it turn unprofitable. When a trader is 100% certain of their forecast, but it proves to be incorrect, it can lead to an emotional outburst. This emotional response can cloud their judgment and lead to impulsive decisions that worsen the situation. Interestingly, professionals in other fields, such as poker and chess, have identified similar causes of tilt. In these games, tilt is often categorized into distinct groups. Understanding these causes can help us develop strategies to recognize and manage our own tilt, ultimately improving a performance and overall trading experience. 📍 THE CAUSES OF TILT IN TRADING CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO SEVERAL FACTORS 1. Bad luck: Despite probability theory suggesting that the outcome of positive or negative events is 50/50, a streak of bad luck can still occur. This is due to the variability in trading systems and the role of luck. A trading system may perform well on one occasion but poorly on another. 2. Unfairness: Unjust market practices, such as sudden spread widening, market maker manipulation from brokers, can evoke feelings of tilt. Cryptocurrency markets, in particular, are susceptible to market maker games. While it's challenging to combat broker injustice, acknowledging and accepting market unpredictability can help manage tilt. 3. Fear of loss: Defeat is an inherent part of trading, but not everyone is willing to accept it. The way individuals perceive loss can significantly impact their emotional response. Some people learn from their mistakes, while others become overwhelmed by emotions. 4. Mistakes: Regrettable mistakes, especially those caused by inattention or failure to acknowledge a correct prediction, can lead to tilt. It's essential to recognize that mistakes are inevitable and develop strategies for addressing them without allowing emotions to dictate decision-making. 5. Uncertainty: Doubts about the accuracy of a signal or fear of loss can prevent traders from taking action, even when they're confident in their forecast. Developing intuition, trusting oneself, and practicing self-awareness through demo accounts or small accounts can help alleviate this type of tilt. 6. The desire to win back losses: The urge to recoup losses at all costs can lead to impulsive decisions and further losses. 7. Despair: This emotional state is characterized by a complete breakdown in judgment, leading to reckless decisions and potentially resulting in the loss of one's deposit and abandonment of trading altogether. 📍 THE CONSEQUENCES OF TILT IN TRADING CAN BE SEVERE AND FAR-REACHING Some common consequences include: 1. Impulsive and reckless trading decisions, often characterized by haphazardly opening trades without a clear plan or strategy. 2. Emotional fear can lead to premature exits from the market, even when the exit signal is not supported by technical or fundamental factors. This can result in missed opportunities and lost profits. 3. Doubts about the correctness of one's actions can lead to chaotic decision-making, causing traders to hastily change trade volumes, pending orders, and other settings. 4. When a stop-loss is triggered, emotional traders may impulsively open a trade in the opposite direction, often due to a local pullback on a strong trend or market maker manipulation. This is a classic example of emotional decision-making. 5. In an attempt to salvage a large loss, traders may decide to "wait it out" in the hope that the price will eventually break even. However, this approach often ends in a stop-out, as the loss continues to grow. 6. Greed can also be a consequence of tilt, as traders become obsessed with maximizing their profits and take excessive risks. This can lead to devastating losses and damage to the trading account. Tilt in trading is often more prevalent after a losing trade, rather than after a profitable one. This is because the emotional impact of a loss can be more significant and lingering, whereas a winning trade may prompt a sense of relief and complacency. However, this second type of tilt, which occurs after a winning trade, can be particularly dangerous. When a trader experiences a series of profitable trades, they may start to relax and let their guard down, leading to a loss of control and discipline. This can quickly snowball into a desire to win back their profits, which can spiral out of control and ultimately lead to emotional exhaustion and burnout. This phenomenon can be attributed to the psychological principle of "relapse," where individuals who have made significant progress in overcoming their biases or impulses may revert to old habits when faced with success. In the context of trading, this can manifest as reckless behavior, impulsive decisions, and an inability to distinguish between rational and emotional decisions. 📍 CONCLUSION Ultimately, the responsibility for our actions and emotional state lies solely with ourselves. The key to maintaining emotional control is to stick to our system, regardless of the outcome. This means resisting the temptation to deviate from our strategy, even when we're experiencing a streak of success or facing a series of losses. It's crucial to recognize that emotions can be unpredictable and potentially destructive forces. When we feel the urge to take action outside of our predetermined plan, whether due to elation or frustration, we must take a step back and reassess. If we're experiencing a series of successful trades, it's essential to take a break before we become complacent and let our emotions get the better of us. Similarly, if we're on a losing streak, taking a break can help us clear our minds and approach our trading with a clearer head. The ability to control ourselves is often the deciding factor between success and failure in any endeavor. By acknowledging this and prioritizing emotional regulation, we can develop the discipline necessary to maintain a consistent and profitable trading strategy. Remember, self-control is not about suppressing our emotions, but about acknowledging them and making conscious decisions that align with our goals. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
14
USD/CAD Gains on Fed's Inflation Fight, Watching for Short SetupThe USD/CAD pair is edging higher on Wednesday, currently trading around the 1.3687 mark. This upward movement comes as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, bolstered by commentary from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Their statements collectively suggest that the US central bank remains reluctant to cut its main interest rate, the Fed Funds rate, due to insufficient progress in lowering inflation. This stance is viewed positively for the US Dollar and, by extension, the USD/CAD pair because maintaining a high Fed Funds rate attracts greater foreign capital inflows from investors seeking higher returns. However, we also observe a confluence of signs that suggest a potential new bearish impulse for USD/CAD. Yesterday, we successfully closed a short position in USD/CAD with a quick profit, following the release of the Canadian CPI economic data. Today, we are considering another opportunity to sell at relatively premium prices. Specifically, we are targeting the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement from the major higher swing. Additionally, we have identified a divergence on the H1 timeframe within a possible bearish channel, reinforcing our bearish outlook. Given these factors, we are looking to establish a new short position in USD/CAD, aiming to capitalize on the anticipated downward movement.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
USD/JPY Overheated: Indicators Signal Potential ReversalThe USD/JPY pair is showing signs of a potential reversal as price action appears to be overheating. This is most evident in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic indicators, both of which are in overbought conditions and exhibiting divergence. These technical signals suggest that the current upward momentum may be running out of steam. Japanese authorities are closely monitoring the situation and are poised for intervention if necessary. However, they are likely to wait and see if upcoming US economic data releases on Thursday and Friday will naturally ease the pressure without requiring direct action. This cautious approach allows them to avoid unnecessary intervention unless it becomes absolutely necessary. In the meantime, we are looking to anticipate this potential reversal by considering a short position. The combination of overbought technical indicators and the likelihood of Japanese intervention, alongside the potential influence of forthcoming US data, creates a favorable scenario for a bearish trade setup. By positioning ourselves ahead of these developments, we aim to capitalize on a possible downturn in the USD/JPY pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
GBP/AUD Poised for Bullish Rebound: Technical Strategic InsightsLast week, the GBP/AUD currency pair mirrored the movement of the GBP/USD main pair, experiencing a notable rebound around the 1.9000 demand area. This area has proven to be a significant support level, reinforced by the stochastic indicator on the H8 timeframe plus a bullish divergence, which shows an oversold condition. This technical signal aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, where the price reacted with a strong bullish candle, indicating a potential upward momentum. The price is currently situated in a discount area, making it an attractive opportunity for a long position. Using a Supply & Demand strategy, we aim to capitalize on this potential bullish impulse. The confluence of technical indicators and the historical behavior of the price at this level support our long setup strategy. Given these factors, we are looking to enter a long position, anticipating that the GBP/AUD pair will continue its upward trajectory. This strategic approach leverages the robust demand area, the oversold condition indicated by the stochastic, and the significant Fibonacci level, creating a compelling case for a bullish rebound.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Breakdown Analysis 1.21RR% - Comprehensive Multi-TimeHello Traders, In today's breakdown of the GBP/USD pair, I share an in-depth analysis covering both higher and lower time frames. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, this video aims to provide valuable insights and education to enhance your trading skills. Key Points Covered: 1. Higher Time Frame Analysis: - Overview of the current trend and key support and resistance levels. - Examination of major chart patterns and their implications. - Long-term price action and fundamental factors influencing the pair. 2. Lower Time Frame Analysis: - Detailed look at recent price movements and short-term trends. - Identification of potential entry and exit points based on technical indicators. - Strategies for intraday and swing trading. 3. Educational Insights: - Explanation of technical analysis concepts used in the breakdown. - Tips on how to combine multiple time frame analyses for more accurate predictions. - Practical advice for managing risk and improving trading discipline. I invite you to watch the video and share your thoughts and comments. Let's learn and grow together as a trading community! Happy Trading! Abdul Kalk Mohamed Afrideen
Short
by AfrideenAyanAimen
EUR/USD Continues to Rise Following Wednesday's PullbackThe EUR/USD pair continues to grow after experiencing a pullback on Wednesday. Traders are closely monitoring today's US Initial Jobless Claims report, which is forecasted to show a modest drop in new US jobless benefit claims to 235K from the previous 242K. Despite this anticipated decrease, the claims are still expected to exceed the four-week running average of 227K. Should the data align with the forecast, we could see a possible bullish impulse for the US Dollar. However, current technical analysis and the Commitment of Traders (COT) report suggest a potential continuation of the bullish sentiment for the Euro. Today's price movement saw a pullback to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the last swing low, a significant technical indicator often associated with a potential reversal or continuation of the trend. This retracement level has provided a solid support base, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Currently, we have a bullish position already opened, and the technical indicators point to further growth potential. The COT report indicates a favorable sentiment towards the Euro, with an increase in long positions. This aligns with the technical analysis, which shows bullish momentum. The EUR/USD pair's ability to maintain above the key Fibonacci level is a positive sign, suggesting that the bulls are still in control. As we await the release of the US Initial Jobless Claims data, traders should remain vigilant for any potential market shifts. The economic news could provide additional insights and potentially impact the direction of the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall outlook remains positive for the Euro, with technical and sentiment indicators both supporting a bullish continuation. In conclusion, while the upcoming US jobless claims data might introduce some volatility, the EUR/USD pair appears poised for further gains. The pullback to the 50% Fibonacci level has reinforced support, and with a bullish position already in play, there is a strong possibility for continued upward movement. Traders should keep an eye on the economic news release for further clues but remain optimistic about the Euro's prospects.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
USD/CAD Poised for Bullish Impulse Amid Key Economic Data ReleasAhead of the release of key economic data, including the CAD CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, Trimmed CPI y/y, and the USD CB Consumer Confidence, the USD/CAD is making a notable bullish impulse around the 1.3680 level. This move aligns with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the last swing, along with a confluence of resistance in this area, where the price is positioned below the 50 Moving Average on the H4 timeframe. Key Economic Data Insights Canadian CPI Expectations: Statistics Canada is set to release the top-tier Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May. The annual rate of CPI is expected to rise to 2.6% in May, slightly down from April’s 2.7% increase. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.3% from April’s 0.5% growth. The core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, showed no growth over the month in April. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will also release its core Consumer Price Index data. The annual BoC core CPI inflation is expected to remain steady at 1.6%, while the monthly BoC core CPI is projected to increase by 0.2%. Canada’s inflation rate is likely to stay below 3.0% for the fifth consecutive month, approaching the central bank’s 2.0% target. A soft CPI report could enhance the BoC’s confidence that inflation is sustainably reaching its target, influencing market expectations for a potential rate cut next month. Market Implications and Technical Analysis If the CPI data is softer than expected, it could bolster the BoC’s confidence in a steady decline towards its inflation target, potentially leading to another rate cut. This scenario could cause the CAD to weaken, allowing the USD/CAD pair to stage a rebound toward the 1.3800 level as renewed dovish bets weigh on the CAD. Technical Outlook: Fibonacci Levels: The price action around the 1.3680 level is supported by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the last swing, indicating a potential support zone. Moving Averages: The USD/CAD is trading below the 50 Moving Average on the H4 timeframe, which could act as a resistance level. Support and Resistance: The area around 1.3680 is crucial, given the confluence of Fibonacci levels and resistance, which could dictate the next move for the pair. Conclusion Given the upcoming economic data releases and the current technical setup, we are looking for a correction on the continuation in the USD/CAD pair. The interplay between the anticipated CPI data and the Bank of Canada’s potential policy response will be pivotal in shaping the near-term direction of the USD/CAD.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USDCHF: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇺🇸🇨🇭 Here is my latest structure analysis for USDCHF. Vertical Structures Vertical Resistance 1: Falling trend line Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line Horizontal Structures Support 1: 0.882 - 0.884 area Support 2: 0.872 - 0.875 area Resistance 1: 0.898 - 0.902 area Resistance 2: 0.908 - 0.911 area Resistance 3: 0.915 - 0.916 area Resistance 4: 0.919 - 0.922 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
1