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EUR/USD Analysis: ECB Stance and Market ExpectationsThe EUR/USD pair has shown strength as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers refrain from committing to extending the rate-cut cycle beyond the June meeting. This cautious stance suggests that ECB officials are wary of aggressive policy easing, which could reignite inflationary pressures. Market Expectations Adjust In light of recent economic indicators signaling persistent price pressures, such as the Negotiated Wage Rates for the first quarter and the preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for May, traders' expectations have shifted. Initially anticipating three rate cuts this year, market participants are now expecting only two. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is nearing the 61.8% retracement level from the previous swing high after a pullback around the 1.0800 level. There are several resistances above, with the first significant resistance at the 1.0860 area, and a more crucial resistance at the 1.0900 level. Our outlook suggests a potential bearish retracement towards the 1.0750 level.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
AUD/USD:Traders Eye Australian Retail Sales and CPI DataThe AUD/USD pair saw upward movement on Monday, benefiting from the subdued activity in the US markets due to the Memorial Day holiday, which left the Greenback weaker. This rise extends Friday’s recovery into a second consecutive day, providing some momentum for the Aussie dollar. Economic Indicators to Watch Australian Retail Sales and CPI Data: Tuesday: Traders are eyeing the Australian Retail Sales data for April, expected to show a modest recovery with a 0.2% increase following a 0.4% decline in the previous month. Wednesday: The focus will shift to Australia's Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, anticipated to grow at 3.4% year-over-year, slightly down from March's annualized 3.5%. US PCE Inflation Data: Later in the week, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data will be closely watched, as it could provide further direction for the USD and consequently impact the AUD/USD pair. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD is approaching a critical resistance area: The price is nearing the 61.8% retracement level from the recent daily swing high. Additionally, it is within the 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone from a more localized swing. This convergence area is a potential point of resistance, where sellers might step in, looking for a bearish retracement. The market inefficiency noted earlier still remains unclosed, suggesting a potential downward correction. Trading Outlook Given the current economic outlook and technical indicators, we anticipate a bearish retracement in the AUD/USD pair: Bearish Setup: The 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone could serve as an ideal entry point for sellers. Target: The objective would be to capitalize on the market's inefficiencies and the expected retracement back towards lower levels. In summary, while the AUD/USD pair has found some upward momentum, economic data releases and technical resistance levels suggest that a bearish retracement may be on the horizon. Traders should watch for key data points and technical signals to confirm this potential move.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Bitcoin: How to Forecast the End of a Trend.The advance from Dec 2018 seems to be tracing an impulse pattern. Wave 1 is an impulse, wave 2 is a zigzag which neatly predicts flat wave 4 by guideline of alternation. The fifth wave appears to be tracing an impulse as well; an extension. It's probable that two minute degrees have reached completion at this stage and the market appears to be tracing out the third wave. So how do you forecast the target for wave 5? One way is to use an Elliott wave channel. Connect the end of wave 2 and 4. Draw a parallel line along the top of wave 3 to project wave 5 target. It is quite common for wave 5 to end upon reaching the upper boundary line of the channel In some cases, when wave 3 is uncommonly strong, almost vertical. Draw a parallel line using the top of wave 1 instead of wave 3. From experience, it's quite advantageous to draw the two upper boundary lines.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Aquanet_Market_Forecast
EUR/USD: Anticipating Downside Movement Amid Market ImbalanceFollowing our previous analysis of the EUR/USD pair, the price has approached the 1.0900 round level, which is significant as it is forming a potential double top pattern. This movement includes a retest of the previous high reached last Wednesday. Currently, there are no major news events impacting the market, which indicates that the price may experience a bearish outcome as it seeks to cover the imbalance observed in the previous week. To support this analysis, I have included a Footprint analysis on a daily timeframe of the Euro futures. This detailed analysis shows that the price has started to exhibit a negative delta, and the cumulative delta has turned red, signaling a shift in market sentiment. Additionally, the volume profile analysis clearly identifies areas with inefficiencies, suggesting that there is an underlying weakness in the recent upward movement. Given these technical indicators, we are expecting a bearish reversal in the near term. The absence of significant news today aligns with this outlook, as the market may be poised to correct the previous week's imbalance without external influences driving volatility. This confluence of factors strengthens our confidence in anticipating a downward movement for the EUR/USD pair. In summary, the technical evidence from the Footprint analysis and volume profile, combined with the lack of impactful news events, points to a likely bearish reversal for the EUR/USD. We recommend closely monitoring these developments and adjusting trading strategies accordingly to capitalize on the anticipated market correction.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to attempt the push up, go into resistance where we wanted to short the market into the order region, and then look for the long trade back up from there on the RIP into the levels above. This went extremely well giving us a pin point move from level to level. During the week we updated the idea, which was already going to plan with a new bullish bias level and trade the new Excalibur activations upside into just below where we are now. Plan worked well again giving an almost pip to pip, level to level reaction from our levels and following our bias and analysis posted pre-hand. Well done to those that followed not only gold but the numerous other pairs we trade in Camelot which also gave us fantastic results for the week. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? This week we would say caution on long trades unless we get a pullback into key level support where we feel it’s worth a test, unless the higher levels aren’t taken on or during the early sessions of the week. We have an order region sitting above 2425-35 which is a large region, and if we see price attempt and give us a clean reversal there, we feel an opportunity to short the market is available for traders back down into the 2400 and below that 2385 price region which is where they may want to start to accumulate again. The issue we have here is that 2445-65 level which is a clean region of liquidity if they want to take it and stretch the sellers even more, so here we will caution again, as that level is the extension of the move, be prepared! So, in practice what do we do? Because we’re back in uncharted territory again, we’ll have to treat this as level to level play, we’ll look lower in the highlight region to go long, unless broken, and if they continue to take us up, we’ll trade it level to level looking for the ultimate short trade following our trusted guide. KOG’s Bias for the week: Bullish above 2395 with targets above 2430-35 and above that 2447 Bearish on break of 2395 with targets below 2375 It’s going to be a difficult week with potential of gaps on opening due to a Powell speech later, be fore market open! There is a lot of geopolitical news driving the markets and fear is present, although it’s looking like we’re going higher we would say caution over the week as a sudden turn will be extreme! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
GBPUSD at Resistance zoneThe trendline has been a significant price barrier, having been rejected multiple times before. It is probable that price will be rejected once again. Search for a selling opportunity and aim to profit at the lower support level. Look for confirmation signals such as bearish candlestick patterns or a decrease in buying volume to strengthen the selling opportunity. Keep a close eye on the price action as it approaches the lower support level for potential exit points. Remember to manage risk carefully and consider setting stop-loss orders to protect your capital in case the trade goes against you.
Short
by LeoDante_FX
GOLD Market Outlook: Accumulation Phase and Bullish PotentialGold prices extended their gains on Monday, trading just below the all-time high of $2,450 reached during the Asian session. This movement is driven by growing expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may ease monetary policy in 2024. After hitting the peak at $2,450, the price experienced a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with a high-value area and the 20-period VWAP moving average. This confluence of technical factors suggests that the price may be entering an accumulation phase, indicating the potential for a new swing high driven by a bullish impulse. If the market transitions to a distribution phase, the price is likely to revert below the 78.6% Fibonacci level, which has been identified as our stop loss. This level provides a crucial support point that, if breached, could signal a significant shift in market sentiment. This week, the U.S. economic docket will be heavily influenced by statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, leading up to the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. These minutes will offer insights into the Fed's current stance on monetary policy and potential future actions. Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report is expected to provide further evidence of a cooling labor market. This report, coupled with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, will be closely watched for indications of broader economic trends. Market participants should pay close attention to these developments, as they will likely influence gold prices and overall market sentiment. The interplay between technical indicators and fundamental economic data will be key in determining the next major move in gold prices. As always, traders are advised to stay informed and adjust their strategies accordingly in response to evolving market conditions. In summary, gold prices are positioned just below their historical peak, with technical indicators suggesting potential for further gains. However, the upcoming economic data and Fed communications will play a critical role in shaping market dynamics in the near term. Maintaining a close watch on these factors will be essential for navigating potential market shifts and making informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD Analysis (20th May 2024) GBPUSD Analysis On the 1 hour Timeframe, price has tapped into the 1 hour FVG and rejected very strongly and created a 15 minute Change of Charcter to the upside. Currently Price has retested the 15 minute bullish OB at the 1.26865 - 1.26924 level. There are 2 scenarios i am looking at. 1) IF price breaks through the Bullish OB with a body candle close below. If this happens i will be looking for price to do a break and retest to continue selling. 2) Price rejectes of the OB and creates a 15 minute CHOCH at the 1.27094. If we see that i want to see a retest of that key level or a retest of a bullish FVG or OB to continue longs.
by CallistoFX
EXPLAINING LIQUIDITY IN SIMPLE WORDSLiquidity plays a vital role in shaping market prices, particularly among large market players such as banks, hedge funds, and other influential entities. These entities, often referred to as market makers, manipulators, and others, are driven by their pursuit of liquidity. In fact, liquidity is the foundation upon which successful trading is built, and it's where traders should begin their journey. In the context of Smart Money Concepts (SMC), liquidity refers to the levels of asset price where multiple market participants have placed limit orders, stop orders, and liquidations. Stop orders are essentially reverse orders designed to mitigate losses by buying back positions that have gone against a trader's expectations. When a trader sets a Stop-Loss order, they're essentially trying to limit potential losses if the market moves against them. The concentration of stop orders creates a gravitational effect, making it attractive for larger players to gain an advantage. By identifying areas with high concentrations of stop orders, big players can exploit these liquidity zones to collect profits from retail traders who are unaware of these market dynamics. As a result, the movement of prices from one liquidity zone to another is driven by the actions of these powerful entities, ultimately shaping the market landscape. ❓ HOW TO IDENTIFY LIQUIDITY ON THE PRICE CHART? Before we dive into trading and trades, we must first identify obvious liquidity pools. These will be our closest target for the price to converge upon. There are several types of liquidity in the market: Equal highs and lows (EQH/EQL), which mark significant turning points Swing structural points, including notable highs and lows that can be significant drivers of market activity Boundaries in sideways price movement, such as ranges or sideways trends, where liquidity is concentrated Trend movement, where liquidity tends to accumulate below or above the trendline 📊 SIGNIFICANT PRICE HIGHS AND LOWS The SMC features six key extrema that significantly impact trading: • The previous month's high and low values • The previous week's high and low values • The previous day's high and low values • The current trading day's high and low values • Equal highs and lows, which can be particularly significant in determining market trends 📈 Equal Highs (EQH) or Equal Lows (EQL) 📉 The double bottom or double top candlestick formation is a common indicator of a potential price reversal. When the price reaches these formations, it typically signals a change in direction, with the price moving in the opposite direction. For retail traders, equal highs and lows are crucial levels of support and resistance, prompting them to place stop orders at these levels. These levels act as a gravitational force, attracting large capital flows and creating a significant amount of liquidity. When the price approaches these levels in reverse, it's not uncommon to see a cluster of stop orders forming, as traders anticipating a bounce from the level wait for the price to react. However, large players often take advantage of this expectation by executing stop-loss orders through a false breakout, ultimately triggering a price reversal. 💲 SIGNS OF A SUCCESSFUL LIQUIDITY GRAB Let's consider a buy scenario as an example. Traders identify a strong low price, and large capital players recognize an obvious accumulation of liquidity at this point. When the price returns to this low and breaks it, but without forming a full candle, the price closes above the broken low. To better understand this concept, let's examine the schematic representation of liquidity grab in buying scenario. Liquidity is a top priority for big players, known as “smart money”. A significant player is actively seeking to find it to secure their position. The reason is that if they were to open trades without sufficient liquidity, they would be exposed to price slippage, as there may not be enough buy or sell orders in the market to execute their trades efficiently. 🔎 IS IT A LIQUIDITY GRAB OR NOT? Distinguishing between a liquidity grab and a breakout of market structure is crucial, as they share similarities. In the case of a liquidity grab, the price fails to close at an important structural highs or lows, instead takes liquidity forming long tailed candles. In contrast, a breakout of the structure sees the price breaks and closes above or below new level. Notably, liquidity grab often precedes a price reversal, whereas breakout of the level typically perpetuates the underlying trend. 📍 TREND LIQUIDITY In a clear trending market, liquidity forms in both directions, at the lows and highs. Let's take a closer look at a downward trend movement. When we see the price moving downwards, we initially take liquidity at the lows, which has been building up since the price reached its maximum. Then, we take liquidity at the minimum, creating a natural flow. At the highs, we deliberately leave liquidity on purpose, allowing it to build up and eventually be taken away naturally. The liquidity at the lows acts as a price magnet, attracting a large player who begins to accumulate their position. In some cases, the price may form equal lows, known as a double bottom in technical analysis. This signals to traders that it's time to enter a trade, and they place stop losses above these levels. At this point, a major player manipulates the price, taking this liquidity and reversing the trend. The first target is then the trend highs, where liquidity is located – it was left earlier to be taken away. 📝 HOW TO WORK WITH LIQUIDITY? When working with liquidity, it can be a valuable tool for entering a trade, as well as helping to set a stop loss by avoiding arbitrary price levels. Instead, you can use liquidity to guide your trading decisions and create more informed stop-loss strategies. Moreover, take profits can also be placed on liquidity levels, as the price is constantly moving between these levels, making it essential to take profits before they're taken away. 💎 CONCLUSION The benefits of liquidity analysis extend to any time frame, whether it's weekly, daily, or even 1-minute charts. This means that liquidity can be effectively applied to analyze forex market, indices, cryptocurrencies and shares of companies for investment purposes, making it a versatile tool for traders and investors alike. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
23