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Short Term Bearish Before Going Bullish...?On this 4 hour, this market has maintained its bullishness, printing higher highs and higher lows from over a week now. Prices are currently in a Bullish PB that is forming a high at the moment. Because the market never moves in a straight line, the market is expected to experience some bearish retracement back into our PB, from where it would be expected to experience some reversal before the continuation of the up move. We have refined our PB to a rather smaller zone. It is expected that prices will come right into our zone, and begin to reverse from there. When that happens, prices will be expected to resume the bullish push and go all the way to the 4 hour liquidity target above.
Long
by PanzyPips
Some Bullishness ExpectedToday, we will be looking at this pair from the 4 hour perspective. On this timeframe, we have seen the market continue to make higher highs and higher lows over the past 2 weeks. This up trend is expected tocontinue for a little longer. From our analysis, the market is current making 4 PBs to the top side. We expect to see some retracement at this level to bring prices into our PB, and possibly into our refined zone, from where we will be looking to see prices reverse bullish and go all the way to the our daily liquidity target at the top. It is expected that prices will continue to move bullish until it gets to our weekly zone above.
Long
by PanzyPips
THE KOG REPORTKOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would face a difficult week on the markets and will be looking for higher pricing on Gold, and if price did start with a decline, we would be looking for the levels 1970-65 for a strong support before attempting the long trade into the target regions we had above. We gave KOG’s bias level as 1965 bullish above and a target price of 2003 on our morning review and update. Looking at the move that occurred, it couldn’t have been anymore precise with the low being put in at 1965 and the target regions above completing. Another successful week on the markets with not only on Gold, but the numerous other pairs we analyse and trade. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? It’s the end of the month, so expect there to be some profit taking across the markets which will cause a lot of volatility. It’s a good idea for most traders, but especially new traders to sit out of the markets during these periods, rather spending their time on education, practicing, and improving their techniques and strategies. Gold, we can see higher pricing, however, again, how high are they going to take it? We’re looking for two moves this week, either the long from the immediate support level or KOG’s bias level which we’ll issue, or a short if price continues to the upside from the open. We’re a too high to get a decent entry from this level, so Monday could be played sitting on the sidelines waiting for price to make a move into the levels we want before attempting a trade. Of course, we’ll also be waiting for our trusted Excalibur to guide us. Levels of interest on the downside are the 1990-85 levels, where, if support holds, we feel an opportunity to long the market into the higher resistance levels could arise. We’ll be monitoring the 2010-15 resistance closely, if achieved, this is where we feel a reaction in price may take place, potentially giving bears an opportunity to short the market back down into the support levels below. A break of that level will continue the move into the previous order region 2030-35 so it could be an idea to hold a runner for higher pricing. A weekly and monthly close above that 2020 level is important for bulls and it’s likely there will be a fight for the close, so please trade this wisely, if you’re going to trade it. On the flip, if price does continue to the upside from the open, we’ll again be looking at 2010-15 for a reaction in price, otherwise, we’ll trade this level to level long on the intra-day using our red box strategy until we feel there is an opportunity to short it back down. KOG’s bias for the week: Bullish above 1985 with targets above 2010 and above that 2015 Bearish on break of 1985 with targets below 1975 and below that 1965 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
TRADING BASICS: TRENDLINESTrend lines are the simplest and most basic concept of technical analysis. It is also, paradoxically, one of the most effective tools. Since almost all price patterns require the use of trend lines, the latter are the basic element of both pattern definition and its use. Now we will discuss what trend lines are, how to work with them and how to determine whether they are working. A trendline is a straight line that connects descending lows in a rising market or highs in a falling market. Lines that connect lows are called rising trend lines, and those that connect highs are called falling trend lines. To make a falling trend line, we connect the first high to the subsequent highs. When the price breaks the trend line, it is a hint that the trend may change. Similarly, for a rising line. How to draw a trend line? ✔️ For a trend line to be real, it must connect the previous highs or lows. Otherwise, there is no sense in such a line at all. This is called the major trend line. It is where the first low of a bearish trend connects to the first intermediate low. In the example below, the trend line is not particularly steep (it is at a low angle, and angles are important in a trend). Unfortunately, price then accelerates sharply after the next low. In a situation like this, it's best to simply redraw the trendline as price moves further away. This is called a new line in the picture and it reflects the changed trend much better. This line will be a secondary trend line. Well, the downtrend lines are drawn in the same way, but in reverse. Since the trend can go sideways, it is quite possible to guess that trend lines can be drawn horizontally. This is often the case when we find price patterns like the "neck" in the Head and Shoulders pattern, or the upper and lower borders of triangles. In such patterns, if the trend line is crossed, it is an indication that the trend is changing. The same is true for rising and falling trends. It is also important to realize that drawing a trend line is a matter of using common sense, not a set of very strict rules. A trendline breakout could indicate a reversal or consolidation The completion of a price pattern can indicate: 1. reversal of the previous trend, aka reversal pattern; 2. continuation of the previous trend, aka consolidation or continuation pattern. Similarly, a trend line breakout indicates either a reversal of the trend or a continuation of the trend. An example demonstrates this concept for a downtrend. In this case, the trend line connecting one high after another is broken in a downtrend. The fourth high will be the highest point of the bearish trend, so an upward breakout of the trend line in this case indicates the beginning of a bullish trend. In the picture above we see again a rising trend and a trend line breakout, but this signal has a completely different outcome. The reason is that the break of the trend line caused the trend to continue, but at a much slower pace. The third scenario is when the price goes into consolidation (aka sideways) instead of reversing, which is shown in picture. Accordingly, when a trendline is broken, it is a strong indication of a trend reversal. A changed trend can eventually reverse or go sideways after rising or falling. Unfortunately, in most cases we can't tell accurately what will follow a trendline breakdown. However, there can be some pretty good clues, such as the angle of the trendline. Since trends that run at an acute angle are less stable, their breakout more often leads to sideways rather than reversals. Useful hints can be hidden in the general state of the technical structure of the market. In addition, a trend line breakout often occurs at the successful completion of a reversal price pattern or shortly before. Extended trend lines ✔️ Many beginners, when they see that a trend line is broken, automatically conclude that the trend is about to change and immediately forget about the line. After all, an extended trend line can be as important as the fact of its breakdown. For example, if a rising trend line is broken, the price very often returns to the same line, but later. This is called a throwback. Significance of trend lines ✔️ So, we have it all figured out - a trend line breakout leads to either a trend reversal or a trend slowdown. Of course, it is not always possible to say what exactly happens there, but we need to understand how effective a trend line breakout is in general, which we are going to do now. In general, the significance of this event depends on three factors: The length of the line; The number of touches; The angle of inclination or rise. 1. Trend line length ✔️ A trend line is used to measure a trend. The longer the line, the longer the trend and the more such a line will become important to us. If descending lows come one after another for 3-4 weeks, such a trendline is less relevant. If the trend line lasts 1-3 years, its breakout is extremely important to us. The breakout of an old trend line is very important, it is a powerful signal. The breakout of a fresh (relatively) trend line is a less important signal. 2. Number of touches or approaches to the trend line ✔️ The more touches or interactions with the trend line, the more important it is, there is a direct correlation. Why is this so? Because the trend line represents a dynamic zone of support or resistance. Each successful touch of the line strengthens it, reinforces its importance as a support or resistance zone. Thus, the trend line's role as a guide for the trend as such is also strengthened. Approaching the trend line is no less important than touching it, because this is how the zone is actualized. If the trend line has become strong due to the touches, its continuation will be no less strong, but from the other side. After all, in an extended trend line, support often becomes resistance and vice versa. 3. Angle of slope ✔️ A very steep trend is usually unstable and easily broken, even by a short sideways movement. All trends break sooner or later, this is a fact. However, steep trends break much faster. The breakout of a steep trend is less significant than the breakout of a smooth and gradual trend. It sounds paradoxical, but the point is this - the break of a steep trend usually causes a short correction, sideways price movement, after which the trend resumes, but much less strong and smoother. Accordingly, the breakout of a steep trend line is a confirming pattern, not a reversal pattern at all. To summarize Trend lines are an easy tool to understand, but they must be used correctly and thoughtfully. A trend line breakout indicates a temporary interruption of the trend or a reversal of the main trend. The significance of a trend line consists of its length, the number of touches/approaches to it and the slope angle. A good trend line always reflects the underlying trend and forms significant support and resistance areas. Extended trend lines change former support/resistance in places, which should be paid special attention to. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
36
EURSGD - Making a Complete 180Similar structure to the AUDSGD trade idea I just published, but I have a few more points to add here. I was originally short this pair. I attempted to make another attempt to enter short and ended up taking out a loss. Since price broke to the upside of this range, my directional bias has changed from bearish to bullish. Momentum picked up nearing last Friday's close and the moving average crossover is an indication of potential price acceleration for the week ahead.
Long
by FinancialGamblR
AUDSGD - Upside Momentum Picking UpThe Singapore dollar appears to be weaker against several pairs. I believe the "cleanest" setup is on the AUDSGD pair, but this signal also exist on the EURSGD pair as well. Price makes a new lower low. Price fails to push to new lows, confirming that the previous low point holds up. The third test and failure of forming a new lower low is a good indication that selling pressure has weakened. Momentum to the upside picked up last Friday going into the weekend. In addition, I'm beginning to see a moving average formation, which is a further indication that momentum to the upside is picking up.
Long
by FinancialGamblR
EURNZD - Downside Momentum PlayI see high probability to the downside for the week ahead. Here's a breakdown of the five key points I'm looking at. Price tops out in late-August of 2023. Price fails to push above previous highs, which serves as another indication that this range marks a relative high point for this pair. Price re-enters this range, but sits lower than the previous high at #2. Very repeatable pattern as price re-enter a lower range. Watching the break and waiting for momentum to pick up to the downside as price is beginning to accelerate last Friday.
Short
by FinancialGamblR
1
AUDUSD - Trend Formation?Early last week, traders started taking profit on US dollar long positions in anticipation of an end to rate hikes. The Federal Reserve shared a sentiment that there likely won't be any further rate hikes, but they will remain elevated depending on how inflation figures come out. From a technicals perspective, I am beginning to see some major shifts happening. Over on the AUDUSD pair, there are two key points I'd like to point out. Price breaches above a consolidation, which I mark in a style similar to the Darvas box system. Simultaneously, the moving average crossover is a further confirmation that price momentum is accelerating to the upside. This pair closed off strong last Friday so I do anticipate seeing a smaller pullback on Sunday's open before a further rally to the upside.
Long
by FinancialGamblR
INDUCEMENT IN TRADINGInducement is the most popular phenomenon in the smart money concept, but most traders don't know how to label it properly and what its definition is. This post will definitely improve your ability to pinpoint the exact location of the inducement and how to use that inducement to your advantage. What is Inducement? Inducement is labeled IND on the chart, sometimes you may see IDM. Inducement is the area and specific point that encourages (incentivizes) traders to buy and sell. In the Smart Money concept, most traders buy after the breakdown of the previous high and sell after the breakdown of the previous low. This is a normal phenomenon and it is what most people do, because this is what all classic trading books teach from the point of view of market structure. ✴️ Examples Look at the initial structure. The bullish movement is accompanied by small pullbacks. According to the classics, if the price breaks the last low, the bullish movement will be replaced by a bearish one. What we see is that the pullback starts and the price updates the previous low. Traders start to buy on the pullback towards the continuation of the movement and sell on the breakout, towards the new, bearish direction. The previous low in a bull market is the Inducement. This is the place where inexperienced traders give their money to the big player, a bait, not otherwise. After liquidity is collected, the big player drives the price in the direction of the true trend. When the price updates the high it will be a BOS, i.e. confirmation of the structure. Note that when the price rises, lows are formed again, these are again the places where you usually buy and sell. ✴️ The idea behide it As you can see, the real market structure is a bit more complicated than retail traders imagine. After the last example, the price can go higher again, there is nothing to prevent it, but we will just move our structural low under the previous inducement. The essence of price movement is only one thing and that is to collect and form liquidity. That is why the price very often goes down when trending up and updates the low, and then continues to fly up, but without you. The same is true for a downward trend. In the picture above you can see the logic of price movement. As you may know or already know from classic books, the price after an impulsive movement starts to make a pullback. This pullback is done not because the price needs to rest, but because the price needs liquidity to continue the trend. Each pullback is an achievement of inducement, that is, a set of liquidity, and within each pullback you can find the same thing. That is, there are pullbacks within a pullback, and within that another pullback, etc. The market itself it is a fractal. This is what confuses millions of traders to choose the right place to enter a position. Reality is very different from what is portrayed in books, people just don't realize which low will be the break. Which top is extreme? Show one chart to 10 traders and all 10 will show a different structure. It also strongly influences why some traders make money while others, in the same pattern, lose. As you have already realized, price will always take out highs and lows to gather liquidity. If you buy or sell without understanding and practicing such a concept, that liquidity will be you. You must understand and be able to identify where that very spot will be inducement. The main thing to remember is that IND appears only when the price updates a structural high or low. You don't have to incorporate a bunch of Smart Money trading principles into your trading strategy. You just need to realize that without liquidity there will be no movement in the market. Price needs only one thing and that is liquidity. You can trade profitably, even without using any instrument, if you understand what highs and lows most traders buy and sell.  
Education
by DeGRAM
5
ANALYSIS OF XAUUSD H1 FRAME ON 11/24/2023- The main structure of XAUUSD is bullish, and the current downward momentum is considered a correction. - Key resistance levels for XAUUSD are noted at 1987. If the price closes below this level on any H1 candle, the selling side takes control of the market. Traders can consider shorting on a rebound from 1987-1990 with a target around 1976. - In the scenario where the price touches the resistance and faces selling pressure, signaling rejection around 1998-2000, it is an opportunity to consider selling.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Golden-Fund-Forex