XAUUSD is trending downAfter Hamas' surprise military attack on Israel last weekend, safe-haven demand for gold increased sharply. Thereby, December gold price increased by 18.40 USD, to around 1,863.40 USD/ounce.
Besides, the gold market is also being affected by US macroeconomic data about to be published this week. Meanwhile, Marc Chandler, CEO at Bannockburn Global Forex, said the market The gold market needs more economic data to confirm the sustainability and clearer direction of the market.
According to Chandler, currently the gold market is still mainly affected by the strength of the USD and bond yields, not the gold purchasing activities of central banks. He believes that gold will have to move above the level of 1,833 - 1,835 USD/ounce to stabilize the current trend.
OANDA:XAUUSD SELL 1863-1865
✔️TP1: 1858
✔️TP2: 1853
❌SL: 1868
Forex-trading
EURUSD has a downward trendThe U.S. dollar rises as capital flows into the safety of the U.S. currency following Hamas's attack on Israel, analysts say. "The escalation of the tension sent a panic into the financial markets on Monday open," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, says in a note. However, it is difficult to predict the extent of the price action on geopolitical shocks, she says. The EUR/USD trades 0.3% lower at 1.0557.
XAUUSD is trending downWorld gold prices tend to increase in the first trading session of the week. Wall Street analysts and retail investors are evenly split on the outlook for gold prices this week.
After a series of days of losses since the US Federal Reserve (FED) kept interest rates unchanged on September 20 and after the US employment report pushed spot gold prices to a new 7-month low of 1810.46 USD, gold is finally showing signs of positive recovery.
Meanwhile, Mr. James Stanley - senior market strategist at Forex.com said that gold will maintain its recent price range but cannot increase in price, and the precious metal may even probe its low level this week. This.
XAUUSD SELL 1850 -1852
✔️TP1: 1844
✔️TP2: 1838
❌SL: 1856
TRADING SESSIONS CHARACTERISTICSIn this post, we will look at the three major forex sessions and their features to understand when and where we can expect volatility and movement in the forex markets. This will be helpful for those who want to associate their forex market trading as a day trader.
Main Sessions in the Forex Market
When trading currencies or indices, there are three main sessions that occur every day. We all know that the currency market is open 24 hours, but during those hours when the markets are open there are spikes and lulls in volume and volatility that we need to be aware of.
Asian Session
The Asian session comes first. The reason why the trading day starts with it is that it opens the trading week as early as Sunday, at 8:00 am in Tokyo and 9:00 am in Sydney. This session is usually marked by very volatile price action, with the exception of some pairs (JPY, AUD, NZD) occasionally showing volatility during the Asian session. In addition, there is usually little volume or manipulation by banks and financial institutions at this time, resulting in very organic and slow price movements.
Liquidity at the Asian Session
There is one interesting feature here. This thing is that a little volatility in the Asian session is created naturally, because of this over the range of the session, above and below, liquidity is created. As the London session begins, the price moves strongly to one side. When day trading, you must realize and consider that that liquidity above and below the Asian session range is highly likely to be absorbed almost immediately after the London session opens.
London Session
Following the Asian session, the London session opens. This time is the main trading time in the UK and Europe. Why do people love the London session? Asia tends to accumulate liquidity in or around its range, the further out, the more volatile the market gets. When trading opens in Frankfurt or London, there is a huge volume of orders coming into the market. This creates ideal trading conditions, especially for those who want to capitalize on large intraday movements.
Before London Opens
The official opening starts at 8:00 am local time. The London session is characterized by high volatility for the first 2-3 hours, after which this volatility starts to slow down as both retail traders and financial institutions start having lunch. London time is great, especially if you will be trading major pairs, European indices or equities, because London movement is real movement.
Lull in London Session
From about 11:00 to 12:00 (noon), price fluctuations quieten down a bit as the major movements in the London session come to an end. This does not mean that the trading day is over and there is no more volatility, from three o'clock and up to an hour before or after the opening of the New York session you can see it rising again. Most traders who trade both sessions take a break, and those who trade only the London session may call it a day.
New York Session
Next we have the New York session, which is a favorite for those living in North and South America, as well as for Europeans who are just too lazy to get up early for the London session and prefer to start trading at 13:00 local time zone. The New York session is special because it also includes the opening of the US stock market, which leads to volatility in certain asset classes that forex traders can trade, including indices.
Before the Opening New York Session
As with the opening in Frankfurt before London, the hour before the session opens is worth devoting some attention to trading and analysis. There is usually a bit of a lull with volatility during this time frame as well. This is something to be aware of and remember, as a good trader, that normal movement will soon begin again.
Opening of New York Session
Next, the New York currency session opens at 8:00 am EST, which is usually accompanied by a lot of volatility, but not as consistently as the hour or two of the London session. During the New York session, you will usually see a big spike in volatility across the major pairs and North American indices, and sometimes a little volatility into the evening. It should be noted that the London session closes at 4:00 p.m. local time, which means lower volumes from London banks and other financial institutions.
The Highs and Lows of the Day
The day's highs the day's lows are key liquidity levels that can either be consumed or used as target liquidity to drive movement. Typically, you will want to mark the highs and lows of previous days to get an idea of what liquidity is being harvested where, as well as the current day's high and low if globally you are in a price range.
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EURUSD is trending downSupport for lower EUR/USD remains in early 4Q but becomes less clear in November and December, when seasonality indicates a weak USD and positive risk appetite, SEB Research analysts say in a note. "However, in October, the relative rate spread tends to be supportive of a lower EUR/USD," they say. Current macroeconomic trends also support a stronger USD, with the soft-landing narrative and "higher for longer" monetary policy stance having a strong hold on markets, they say. The euro trades 0.1% lower at $1.0538.
THE IMPORTANCE OF TAKING BREAKS IN TRADING✴️ How to do the job right
Around 2-3 hours in the afternoon you feel tired, your brain is not working as actively as in the morning and you want to take a nap. Is that normal? More than normal. All of us to more or less conscious age were taught to sleep at night and stay awake all day. But it's not the best habit for our mental health and it's certainly not how our ancestors used to sleep.
People in the pre-industrial era, when there was no electricity yet, would go to sleep around 8pm, then at around 2am wake up for a couple of hours, do some creative work, go visit neighbors and then go back to sleep until morning.
A similar story happens during the day. The fact is that our brain prefers to fall asleep and wake up more often than once a day. From 2pm to 4pm is the so-called "Nap Zone", a time period ideal for daytime naps. It is known that the ancient Romans in the first century BC liked to nap in the afternoon, such breaks they called Meridiari, then they began to call them Sexta (sixth hour, according to their time measurement), well, and the word Sexta over time transformed into Siesta.
Many studies show the positive effects of a short nap during the day. Concentration improves, attentiveness improves, you can do more things.
Moving on. The following interesting keys are given to us by a 30-year study of people who are outstanding in their fields - musicians, athletes, writers, etc.
Number 1 : it is only possible to perform at peak performance for about an hour without rest. This is worth taking note of for scalpers who follow the market intensively. If you have traded for an hour, take a break.
Number 2 : people who have achieved great results in their fields practice/train about 4 hours a day on average. Increasing the workload time only leads to burnout and injury (in the case of athletes). Therefore, it makes little sense to trade more than 4 hours a day. And of course, the most effective period is from morning until lunchtime. If you have any business that requires extreme attention and concentration it is better to do it in the morning.
If we summarize all of the above, then:
• We do the most important thing in the morning
• It is possible to work hard, at the limit of your capabilities without resting for only about an hour, feel free to take small breaks
• It is pointless to practice trading/sports for more than 4 hours a day
• Between 14 and 16 hours it would be good to allocate 15-20 minutes for a short nap
An important note, if you have entered the flow you do not need to stop through force. If, for example, you are happily testing a new system until one o'clock in the morning, this is a good sign.
✴️ How to rest properly
The best way to relax is something involving physical and mental activity, with deep immersion in the process. For example: rock climbing, painting, golf. The goal is to completely disconnect and not think about work/trading, etc.
Of course, if you are wildly tired then sleep, watch TV series, play video games when it's simply not physical strength. And perhaps you should focus more on athletics If you want to play a sport.
As for vacation in general, scientists agree that it should ideally be about one week every three months. Hard work or trading without weekends and vacations will only lead to health problems. You can't make all the money you want anyway. So, health is wealth.
✴️ Conclusion
It is understandable that not everyone can apply the above tips. But if this post made you at least think about the importance of rest and breaks in work and trading, then this post was written for a reason. I myself thought for a long time that it was cool and great to be busy all the time, even sometimes I felt guilty during weekends or vacations when I didn't do anything, but as it turned out, there is nothing to feel guilty about without rest and breaks, productivity is simply impossible.
Keep in mind the market will be here tomorrow. And if you feel that you want to take a break from trading for a day/week/month then go ahead. Nothing bad will happen, even on the contrary during this time you will surely come up with new, cool ideas on how to improve your trading.
USDCAD ForecastPrice is trading in an impulse phase, projecting a potential wave 4 minor drop then making a wave 5 high. Wave 2 retraced more than 61,8 Fibonacci level which tells us that wave 3 will complete at 2.618 Fibonacci extension level. Often wave 4 retraces 38,2 of wave 4. Also, keep in mind a base channel.
EURUSD is trending downEuro exchange rate developments on the world market show that the EUR/USD index is currently at 1.0521, an increase of 0.0018 points, equivalent to 0.17% compared to the previous session. After yesterday's sharp decline, today the Euro has decreased. regained recovery momentum. A rebound in oil prices has had a negative impact on the already deteriorating Eurozone economy, and concerns about Italy's fiscal situation mean the downside for the Euro is growing. increases, increasing the possibility of this currency falling closer to the 1 USD/EUR mark. The main reason is because the USD is strong when the US economy is strong. However, there are internal factors, especially the impact of rising oil prices, that put the stagnant Eurozone economy at risk of weakening further.
The common currency is vulnerable to rising oil prices, as net imports account for over 90% of the supply of petroleum products in the European Union. Nomura also forecasts that the Euro will fall to 1.02 USD/euro by the end of the year, a further 3% decrease from the current level.
Direction of movement of XAUUSDWorld gold prices last night almost only fluctuated in the range of 1,820 - 1,830 USD/ounce. By 6 a.m. on October 4, today's gold price was trading at 1,822 USD/ounce, on par with the price at the same time the previous day. According to analysts, after many days of continuous increase, the USD Index has reversed. going down, causing the USD to decrease in value compared to 6 other strong currencies, including: Euro, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF. According to the latest figures from the World Gold Council, central banks bought 77 tonnes of gold in August, up 38% from purchases in July. Over the past three months, central banks have purchased 219 tons of gold after record net purchases in the first half of the year. Countries with USD-denominated debt continue to face high financing costs. James Robertson, an analyst at Grant's Interest Rate Observer, said the only way for countries to reduce those costs is to diversify away from the dollar and gold remains the most attractive global monetary asset.
TVC:GOLD BUY 1827-1829
✔️TP1: 1833
✔️TP2: 1837
❌SL: 1822
Direction of movement of XAUUSDWorld gold prices last night almost only fluctuated in the range of 1,820 - 1,830 USD/ounce. By 6 a.m. on October 4, today's gold price was trading at 1,822 USD/ounce, on par with the price at the same time the previous day. According to analysts, after many days of continuous increase, the USD Index has reversed. going down, causing the USD to decrease in value compared to 6 other strong currencies, including: Euro, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF. According to the latest figures from the World Gold Council, central banks bought 77 tonnes of gold in August, up 38% from purchases in July. Over the past three months, central banks have purchased 219 tons of gold after record net purchases in the first half of the year. Countries with USD-denominated debt continue to face high financing costs. James Robertson, an analyst at Grant's Interest Rate Observer, said the only way for countries to reduce those costs is to diversify away from the dollar and gold remains the most attractive global monetary asset.
OANDA:XAUUSD BUY 1827-1829
✔️TP1: 1833
✔️TP2: 1837
❌SL: 1822
EURJPY Continuation PlayEURJPY has been trading in a range between 157.139 and 159.336 since early August. Earlier this week, price finally broke below the lower range boundary and it looks like price will remain below it.
I currently have a bearish sentiment. Although price may take a pause post-breakout, I anticipate continuation to the downside will remain likely as this reversal is underway.
NZDCAD Continuation PlayPrice bottomed out mid-September and has been trading in a consolidation since August. After the initial break in the beginning of October, price entered another range (small pullback).
I'm currently seeing an upside breakout coming out of an accumulation. This is an indication that there is a good swing trade opportunity here.
USDCHF Reverses After Double-TopPrice made the original high on September 27th. A few days later, a retest of the high occurred on October 3rd.
After today's New York close, price continues to push to the downside. As long as price holds below the labelled neckline at 0.91492, I believe we can expect a bearish outlook.
Reversal Chart Pattern: WedgeWhat this chart pattern shows us is a loss of trend strength and a deceleration in price movement.
The most achievable projection for setting our take profit will be the maximum width of the pattern, which occurs at the beginning of it. Alternatively, you can take the level that marks the start of the correction as a profit-taking point.
As for the stop-loss level, it will depend on the type of entry made in the trade, whether it's a high-risk entry or a reduced-risk entry.
(Like any other pattern or indicator, this one provides a signal of a possible market move. Therefore, the greater the number of confluences, the higher the probability that the observed scenario will occur). 💼💹 (🇬🇧)
EURUSDHello everyone! As of today, I see two potential scenarios for intraday trading.
1 (marked in black) - The scenario involves breaking the Asian high with a potential target set at the Asian low.
2 (marked in red) - This scenario focuses on breaking the fractal high in the 1.05 zone, with targets around the Asian low.
We maintain a short context both on the daily and hourly charts.
SIGNAL PROVIDER TESTIMONIALSWhen choosing signal providers, it is a difficult task to determine the quality of the provider. One way of course is to look at testimonials. Testimonials are a common tool used by signal providers to showcase success stories or attract potential customers. While testimonials can provide valuable information about a provider's performance, they should be approached with caution. It is important to study them thoroughly. Here are a few key factors to consider when you read forex signal provider testimonials:
1. Authenticity
First of all, you need to make sure that the testimonials are genuine and not fabricated. This is where details are important. Look for specific details such as the trader's name, location and trading experience. General or vague testimonials without any identifying information should alert you.
2. Verifiability
Check if testimonials can be verified through independent sources. Reputable signal providers often provide links to their clients' social media profiles or trading accounts, which allows you to cross-check the information provided. Such transparency indicates a higher level of trust, as testimonials without verification are not a good sign.
3. Consistency
Analyze the consistency of testimonials. Do they all sound the same or use identical wording? For example, identical and short sentences. Such testimonials may indicate that they are scripted or fake. Genuine testimonials should reflect individual experiences and vary in tone and content.
4. Duration
Pay attention to the duration of the testimonials. Are they recent or written several years ago? Testimonials that cover a significant period of time indicate consistent performance and reliability. But too old testimonials, say left 3 - 5 years ago, may not accurately reflect the current work of the provider.
5. Third-party testimonials
Look for independent reviews as we do for example or testimonials about the signal provider in reputable sources like Trustpilot. Such reviews can provide an unbiased point of view and verify the claims made in the testimonials. Internet forums, social media groups, and specialized review websites are excellent resources for finding such information.
6. Track record
Evaluate the overall track record of the signal provider. Does it have a track record of generally providing accurate and profitable signals? Look for evidence of long-term success, including consistent positive testimonials from numerous clients that reflect the provider's profitability.
In conclusion, while testimonials can be a valuable tool for assessing the reliability of signal providers, you should approach them with skepticism. Considering factors such as authenticity, verifiability, consistency, longevity, third-party testimonials, track record and trial period give informed decisions on which signal providers to trust. One must remember that thorough research and due diligence are crucial when choosing a reliable signal provider.
UNDERSTANDING COMPLEX PULLBACKWhat is a two-legged pullback ?
A two-legged pullback in the market is a pattern of price action in which the market retreats in two separate steps or movements before resuming its primary trend. This is a counter-trend move. After a strong trending move, price needs to sort of take a break and there is a double attempt to reverse the trend. When the price hits a strong zone, the price pulls back from it and if the trend does not continue, a second pullback occurs. Here the second pullback is approximately equal to the first one. We use this model for 2 purposes in the market:
- Projection of the next move
- End of pullback
If you look at the market, it likes power of two, be it a double top/bottom, a double test of the uptrend, followed by a breakout. Let's look at the example of the recent movement on EURUSD. As we can see the asset has been in a strong bearish trend for a long time. The price bounced off the support and made the first pullback and then the second one. Note that the first pullback ended where there were no strong levels. But when we have the second pullback, we can see that it ends right at the strong resistance. This was an additional signal to enter a trend trade.
A two-legged pullback in the context of the market
Traders using the two-legged pullback strategy usually wait for both legs of the pullback to complete before entering a trade. It is very important to look at the context of the market here. If it happens that the second leg breaks through the lower high or higher low, it is a reason to be wary because it is usually a sign of a trend shift. The first leg can be projected and wait for the price at these levels. If it coincides with a strong level, it is a trade with a high probability of success.
Let's look at some examples
The recent example of gold shows well the interaction of a two-legged pullback with a strong level. The first time we got a pullback A. The price paused and then went up. The question remains where we should wait for price. We simply take the A pullback and project it and get the approximate end of the C pullback. This pullback ended on a strong resistance, which led to the price reversal .
The EURUSD, too, after a strong bearish movement, rolled back to the resistance, making a two-legged pullback. Note that the EURUSD touched a strong level and fell. Although it did not lead to a complete reversal of the price, but we got a reaction and a short term trade. Here you can see a perfect example that there can be a third leg, which exactly led to the price reversal.
The UKOIL example perfectly shows a trending trade. The price bounced off the resistance, and as you noticed there was a two-legged move before that. When A and B have formed, we use the projection method to wait for the price at the end of C.
The last example is a great example of a perfectly formation of the two-legged pullback. The price has not yet triggered the level. But what do we have here? A downtrend, a two-legged pullback and a strong resistance at 1.66000. Will the trend continue, what do you think? Let's see.
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EURCAD: Your Trading Plan For Today 🇪🇺🇨🇦
EURCAD is trading in a strong bearish trend.
After the price set a new lower low lower close on a daily,
it retraced to a key daily horizontal resistance.
To short the pair with a confirmation, monitor a head and shoulders pattern on 1H t.f.
Its neckline breakout - hourly candle close below 1.422 will confirm the strength of the sellers.
A bearish continuation will be expected then to 1.418 level.
Remember, that if the price sets a new higher high, the setup will become invalid.
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