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Gold breakout and downtrend continuesGold fell sharply in the context of US Treasury bond yields reaching a 16-year high and profit-taking activities leading to a sell-off of precious metals. Gold is also under pressure from the USD hanging high near a 6.5-month peak. The DXY index (which measures the movement of the USD against 6 major currencies) is near 106 points Gold also decreased because a commodity closely related to gold, oil, dropped sharply. Petroleum demand is forecast to be suppressed as major central banks keep interest rates high for a long time. North Sea Brent oil price dropped to 92.8 USD/barrel, while US light sweet crude oil price (WTI) dropped to 89.3 USD/barrel
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold trading strategy - the growth of goldGold spot price on the international market plummeted from 1,915 USD to 1,900 USD/ounce at 6:00 a.m. on September 27. This is the lowest price on the gold market in September 2023. The USD soared in value as investors were frightened by the commitment of major central banks to maintain high interest rates and control inflation. In particular, policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (FED) increasingly strongly support raising interest rates by the end of 2023 to bring inflation in the US back to the target of 2%. Futures are expected to stay high, causing international stock markets to sell off. On Wall Street (USA), the Dowjones dropped sharply by 388 points, the S&P 500 dropped 63 points, and the Nasdaq dropped 207 points.
TVC:GOLDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
WHAT IS A PRICE DECELERATION?✴️ What Is A Price Deceleration? A price deceleration is when the market slows down after a trend movement. It occurs when the price of an asset begins to slow down its ascending or descending impulse. It usually occurs at key levels, such as support and resistance. The price finds it difficult to make highs at resistance and lows at support. It all looks like an upward or downward wedge at levels or just channels. Price deceleration can occur at the end of a trend movement or at the end of a pullback. When the price approaches key levels, the bulls are reluctant to buy and the bears are reluctant to sell, which is characterized by price deceleration and poor highs and lows trading. As a result, this leads to a pullback or a complete reversal of the trend. Therefore, this one works well for price reversals. ✴️ Price Deceleration Identification One of the key features of a deceleration and then a price reversal is divergence. The pattern is formed when the price touches the channel border for the fourth time. Thus, we determine the first clues of the future price reversal or price continuation. Another important sign of deceleration is a decrease in the slope angle or steepness of the trend line, as well as a decrease in the size of price swings. It means that the price is squeezed before the impulse movement. Price usually shoots up and accelerates after the squeeze. ✴️ Confirmation Of Price Deceleration Oscillators are used to confirm the deceleration. For example, the relative strength index (RSI) shows divergence very well. Price, after a strong movement like a big ship, still makes some motion moving forward. So, it does not stop immediately. At this time, RSI shows that there is no strength in this movement and goes in another direction, confirming divergence and a soon reversal. Once we have four touches forming the channel, we can look for entry opportunities. Usually the 3rd or 4th touches of the border lead to reversal IF it is confirmed by RSI divergence. ✴️ Plan Your Entry and Exit Points Once we have identified the price deceleration, we need to plan entry and exit points. If the price touches the upper channel and the oscillator shows a bearish divergence, it can be called a confirmation. Usually, if there is a divergence, the price immediately goes in the opposite direction. The engulfing candlestick or pinbar can be used as a trigger to enter the market, as it perfectly shows the current market sentiment and the dominance of one of the sides, be it bulls or bears. The optimal risk/profit ratio in trades is 1:2, because if the trade is counter-trend, there is a probability that the price will go further along the trend. More Examples BTC/USD USD/CAD XAU/USD
Education
by DeGRAM
25
Joe Ross Trading StrategyHello everyone This post will be devoted to the trading methods of the famous trader Joe Ross. There is very little information about Ross on the internet, mostly copied from his books, so let's try to study this situation more deeply. The information is not for beginners. Support and resistance, trend lines, the concept of flat market, all this should be already worked out. You should already know and be able to apply them. You should also take into account that this Ross strategy used only in a trending market. It is not applicable in a sideways movement or choppy. 1-2-3 Setup 1-2-3 setup according to Ross is a reversal formation, that is, its development is information for thinking about the change of the current trend. This setup works absolutely on any timeframe and asset, which once again confirms its quality and flexibility. Bullish Setup This setup is formed at the end of the downtrend and consists of 3 key points. EURUSD chart, 1 hourly timeframe will be used as an example. What is the point of the setup; after the bearish movement, when the price consistently made new lower highs and lows, a breakout of the last local high was formed. This means that there may have been a change of movement and market sentiment. The setup is considered complete after the breakout of point 2. It is not the closing of the candle above point 2 that is considered a breakout, but the creation of a new high above this mark. After that it is taken as a condition that there is a new bullish trend. So, what we have in the case of a set-up occurring: • A clear 1-2-3 pattern • The pattern is finally formed and considered formalized after breaking the high/low at point 2 We identify the peaks, then we look for some sort of 1-2-3 formation to begin to emerge. If the last high is broken in a bullish setup, we look to see if this formation is clearly visible. If yes, we can enter the trade. Bearish Setup How this formation is built and what to pay attention to when marking charts. As we can see on the 1st chart, point 1 has formed a new low with its shadow. And here, when moving to the potential point 2 and then to point 3, the most important thing to pay attention to when marking this setup (for the example, we take a bullish setup) is hidden, namely: • The highs of the candles from point 1 to point 2 must be higher than the previous ones. In other words, each new candle makes a new high. As soon as the next candle is formed without making a high - we have point 2 • When moving from point 2 to point 3, each candle should make deeper lows, while the upper highs of the candles should not be higher than point 2. If shorter, we have a decline going down like a ladder • As soon as the next candle closed without forming a new low - ready, we have point 3 Ross Hooks (RH) The next step, and it is the main one in trading this method, is Ross's Hooks. This is the fundamental part of his strategy, which, by the way, uses it more than half a century. So, we have a 1-2-3 setup. There is a breakout of point 2 and the price goes up further. Each new candle makes a new low, while the highs does not go above the point 3. As soon as the next candle fails to make a new low, we have a Ross Hook (RH). Let's look at an example for clarity: We broke through point 2, created a new low and rolled back. The first RH and confirmation of the trend change to a downtrend appeared. Further price movement will be based on attempts to break through RH and pullback after the breakthrough and further attempts to establish new lows. It would be interesting to note that at the current stage we do not care what candles formed this trend, there is no need to pay attention to Price Action setups. Even this simplified view shows the development of the trend, its growth and direction. Later we will see how to apply hooks and trade with them in combination with Price Action setups. Ross Reversal Hooks Ross Reversal Hook (RRH) is formed by a pullback from RH and the formation of a new low in the current trend. Let's take a look at the same example above: Ross Trend Detection Methods So, let's summarize the main methods of determining the Ross trend and its pros and cons. Cons: • Firmly identifying a trend change happens quite late. In other words, a part of the trend movement is lost. • It is extremely rare that a 1-2-3 formation is formed, then RH, and the trend changes sharply to the opposite. Pros: • Despite the late entry, we have fairly reliable entries with low risks to our capital. • We have a strict orderly system and we can clearly see if there is a trend on the current timeframe or not. • The 1-2-3 and Rh formation works perfectly on any timeframe. • The period of trend change can be detected at an early stage if we apply filtering and Price Action methods. Now let's discuss trend detection methods in conjunction with basic Price Action methods. Forex trading is highly dependent on a few major factors. These are leverage size, spread size, lot size to trade, asset to trade. Now, as for the definition of trends. Ross' principles are applicable to any timeframe, so, having defined your trading timeframe (let's say 1 hour), you should proceed to 4 hourly, 1 daily, 1 weekly timeframes. On each of them, in accordance with the rules of technical analysis, mark the trend lines, starting from the higher timeframe. As a result, we get a picture on the trading timeframe, within which we can see the price movement at the current moment of time. And, having a complete picture, we mark 1-2-3 setups, hooks (if any) and the potential for further price movement. Finding the Best Trend Depending on the Timeframe How to determine if a trend is good? How to quickly and easily determine the timeframe, which is most interesting when trading using the Ross technique. Simply put, there should be a good growth, then a pullback of no more than 3 bars, possibly with the formation of RHR and a break of RH. If we see choppy market, a bunch of dojis, inside bars, incomprehensible moves; this timeframe is not quite well chosen. In particular, on GBPAUD a good timeframe can be seen on the 4 hourly timeframe, but on the hourly one the same trend does not look so good. Let's see: 4H 1H And it happens that on the hourly timeframe there is a perfect trend, but when you switch to the 4-hour or daily timeframe, there are confusions. The same is true for 15 minutes, and so on. The main thing is to learn to determine whether a trend is ""nice"" or not by just looking at it. It is also very useful to look at the previous trends on the selected timeframe. History repeats itself and trends can behave similarly precisely because there will be support and resistance lines in approximately the same places. RHs Filtering Methods Here we come to one of the most difficult parts of the Ross trade. RH filtering is something you need to pay the most attention to. Even if you don't trade Ross, but know his filtering methods - it helps a lot in terms of identifying such moments, what we call "false breakout", "collecting stops" and so on. Support and resistance line Trend line A price break or gap Accumulation The first and easiest way of filtering is, of course, in support and resistance lines. If we see that the hook hit the monthly resistance when trading on a 4 hourly timeframe, it is a good reason to think about whether a trend change will follow. But on the other hand, a breakout of the maximum of such a hook combined with strong resistance can be a good buy signal. Also, if the trend is long enough and the hook is formed at the resistance level, there is a good chance that the trend will turn sideways. The next way of filtering is the trend line or channel lines. They are good for determining the end of a pullback in a trend and the formation of reversal setups. This post is a simplified representation of Joe Ross's strategy, there are so many nuances, subtleties, and filters. Ross in his books shows combinations of his hooks with such indicators as Stochastic, ATR, Bollinger Bands, moving averages and much more. In practice, as soon as there is some "confusion" of the price, which is out of the framework of the normally current trend, you should put this tactic aside and use other ones. Hooks work exclusively in a trending markets. Traders, If you liked this educational post, give it a boost and drop a comment.
Education
by Lingrid
11
💱 EURAUD - The market is preparing for further decline EURAUD is forming a local flat after breaking through 1.6658. The market is forming a retest of support, but there will be a chance of a breakout if the price comes back again after a small rebound TA on the high timeframe: 1) We have a bearish trend 2) A pre-breakout consolidation is forming near 1.64975 3) Another support retest may break the level and form an impulse to 1.61900 TA on the low timeframe: 1) Price is descending in steps within the bearish channel, which indicates a strong trend 2) Support at 1.64885 and multiple retests of it are forming. 3) The market is preparing to break this line and further fall. 4) The sell signal will be a retest and consolidation below the support level Key resistance📈: 1.66122 Key support📉: 1.64885
Short
by AndeWave
4
📉 GBPUSD Under Pressure & Support Broken! 📉the FX:GBPUSD pair is currently under intense pressure, and it's just broken through a crucial support level at 1.22800. The charts are revealing an interesting story as our Fibonacci retracement suggests that the next stop might be around 1.1800. What's even more intriguing is that this level coincides with the last major resistance point on the chart. The Fibonacci retracement levels are powerful tools for identifying potential support and resistance zones. In this case, it's pointing us towards 1.1800 as a significant level to watch. Just yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would be keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.5%. This decision is essential to monitor, as it can have a substantial impact on the USD's strength and, consequently, GBPUSD. A steady interest rate could suggest stability for the USD, but it's essential to keep an eye on any future developments. While we can't expect a straight plummet to 1.1800 "like a bear falling from a window," all signs point to this being the next significant stop. Happy trading, everyone! 💹📊📈
Short
by scipheord
EURUSD: Important Key Levels to Watch 🇪🇺🇺🇸 Here is my latest structure analysis for EURUSD. Horizontal Structures Support 1: 1.0630 - 1.0635 area Support 2: 1.0516 - 1.0545 area Resistance 1: 1.0717 - 1.0737 area Resistance 2: 1.0755 - 1.0775 area Vertical Structures Vertical Support 1: Lower boundary of a falling channel Vertical Resistance 1: Upper boundary of a falling channel Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
4
CADUSD, Possible FLAG-FORMATION In The MAKING!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about CADUSD on the daily timeframe perspectives. As when looking at my chart we can watch there that CADUSD already initiated a bearish development with the first impulse wave A into the bearish direction. From there on CADUSD showed up with this channel-formation in which it is also forming a local wave-count which is actually building the global wave B of the wave-count to the downside. As CADUSD now heavily pulled back off the upper boundary of the channel formation and already forms the pullbacks below the 400- as well as 800-EMA there is a high possibility given that the whole channel-formation will be completed as a bear-flag if CADUSD moves finally below the lower boundary of the channel and shows up with a similar confirmation-formation as it is seen in my chart. Once the whole channel-formation has been completed as a bear-flag it will activate the lower target zones seen in my chart, once these have been reached the situation needs to be elevated again, it will be an interesting development. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "Trading effectively is about assessing possibilities, not certainties." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
5
GBPUSD, Bear-Pennant To Setup Next Impulse!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about GBPUSD on the 4-hour timeframe perspectives. In recent times I detected a pivotal formation developing for GBPUSD. As when looking at my chart now we can watch there how GBPUSD is forming this main bearish impulse development to the downside in which it just broke down below the ascending-resistance-line, this ascending-resistance-line was support previously and now it is a strong resistance. Below this line GPUSD is forming a bear-pennant as seen in my chart, this bear-pennant is signaling the continuation of the bearish trend. Once the pennant has been completed as shown in my chart this will be the setup for further continuations and GBPUSD will activate the lower target-zone as marked in my chart. Once this zone has been reached it will be highly crucial how GBPUSD continues from there on because when GBPUSD forms a next formation in this structure this will lead to the continuation into the bearish-continuation-zone marked in red, for now we need to see how the dynamic evolves. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
6
USDCHF, Massive BROADENING-WEDGE, Determinations Ahead!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about USDCHF and the 4-hour timeframe perspectives. When looking at my chart we can watch there how USDCHF in recent times has formed this massive broadening wedge formation, in this broadening wedge formation USDCHF already completed the coherent wave count reaching from A to E, and with the completion of this wave count with the wave E USDCHF has shown up with this massive bounce off the lower boundary of the broadening wedge formation till the breakout above the upper boundary emerged. Now as USDCHF has shown up with this breakout this completed the whole broadening wedge formation and USDCHF from there on activated upside targets in the structure. In the next times there is an increased possibility given for USDCHF to bounce off the upper boundary as it is seen in my chart, in this zone USDCHF has also coherent supports determined by the 65-EMA in red and the 35-EMA in green, taking these factors into the consideration with USDCHF bouncing in these levels there is an increased likelihood given for USDCHF reaching out further targets in the structure especially as the high bullishness already settled there is good potential given for this determination, it will be an interesting development ahead. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "Trading effectively is about assessing possibilities, not certainties." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
5
ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION INDICATOR ✴️ Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) is a standard pack of technical analysis tools of many trading platforms. Today we will get to know this tool in detail and see how it works on Forex. This indicator can be especially interesting for supporters of the VSA method, as it takes into consideration trading volumes in its analysis. The author of the tool, world-known theorist and practitioner of technical analysis of stock markets Mark Chaikin, managed to describe the market phases with the help of volumes and price behavior: Accumulation - purchases of shares by investors and speculators; Distribution - sales of stocks at fixation of income. The forex market looks somewhat different: the accumulation or growth phase is interpreted by the A/D curve as an increase in the strength of the bulls, while the distribution or decline is perceived as an increase in the pressure of the bears' positions. ✴️ How indicator works Accumulation/Distribution is considered a technical tool for confirming or rejecting a trend. The growth or fall of prices on the chart must necessarily coincide with the direction of the indicator curve. All divergences are interpreted in the direction of A/D, i.e. any divergence is considered as a signal of the soon reversal of the currency pair. Indicator divergences from price are the most popular signals in technical analysis, but only A/D indicators have a high leading predictive accuracy. The indicator formula uses real volume indicators compared to price range changes, thanks to which Chaikin has achieved the best algorithmic display of VSA theory principles on the chart. ✴️ How to use the indicator in trading The most common strategy for applying Accumulation/Distribution is considered to be the oscillator method proposed by the author himself. It consists in finding the difference between two exponential moving averages with a period of 3 days and 10 days, taken from A/D values. Due to the settings of A/D to generate leading signals of trend change, the Chaikin oscillator (CHO) indicator has an important feature of signals synchronized with the current change in prices, despite the use of exponential averages, which traditionally lag due to averaging the result of calculations. The strategy of trading on the oscillator signals is to open positions: Long - the CHO curve crosses the zero line from bottom to top; Short - the CHO curve falls below the zero line. M. Chaikin suggested using divergence signals, divergence of tops and bottoms of the chart and oscillator trends as a trade filter, interpreting them in favor of CHO. The chart above shows how an uptrend is not confirmed by the next top of the curve, which means that we open a Short position at the zero line crossing from top to bottom. The situation is similar with a falling trend: if it is not confirmed by new CHO lows, we open a Long position after the indicator crosses the zero line. Positions are closed by reversal on the reverse signal, it is possible to insure the open order with a stop-loss moved to the breakeven zone. At the first opening of the trade, it is located at the nearest maximum or minimum, usually coinciding with the top CHO. Some traders who trade exclusively counter-trend divergence signals choose Accumulation/Distribution. As soon as a divergence is identified on the chart - a pending order is placed: Sell limit at the maximum not confirmed by the A/D indicator; Buy limit at the minimum at which the A/D divergence occurred. In other cases, the Accumulation/Distribution indicator is used as part of trading systems as an overbought/oversold oscillator filter. The picture below shows a simple MA + RSI strategy, where one of the conditions for a sell signal is the A/D divergence in the overbought zone. Having confirmed the trend reversal in this way, the trader waits for the prices to cross the MA and opens a Sell order on the market. ✴️ In conclusion Accumulation/Distribution is a sample of perfect synchronization of trading volume indicators with the dynamics of market quotes. The indicator is easy to interpret and use, it will not cause problems with its application even for a beginner, as it has no settings that would have to be selected. Like any other tool of the chanalysis, A/D indicators are better used as a part of trading systems or together with other developments of Mark Chaikin. They are published on the Chaikin Analytics website, repeatedly recognized as the best portal for quantitative analysis of financial markets.
Education
by DeGRAM
2
EURAUD, Broadening-Bear-Flag-Formation, How It Completes!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about EURAUD and the daily timeframe perspectives. As I discovered recently in the forex market EURAUD is forming a important formation that is likely to complete within the upcoming times and show up with important determinations. Therefore, as when looking at my chart we can watch there how EURAUD initiated this main ABC-wave-count to the downside with the first major wave A already completed from where on EURAUD continued with forming the wave-B in the structure and within this wave-B EURAUD is now developing a main broadening-bear-flag-formation simultaneously. In this broadening-bear-flag-formation EURUAD has a coherent wave-count from A to C already completed and now approaches the upper-boundary of the formation from where a bounce to the downside is likely to come up. When EURAUD then moves on further to breakout below the lower boundary of the formation this will be the setup for the main wave-C to emerge in the structure and the further continuations till EURAUD reaches out the dynamic-target-zone marked in blue from where the dynamic needs to be elevated again. When EURAUD approaches this target-zone there is the ability given to a appropriate reversal, how this develops then needs to be shown, it will be an important journey ahead. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, it will be great when you support it with a like, follow and comment for more upcoming market analysis, all the best! "The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
7
USDCAD, Potential BULL-FLAG, How It Completes!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about USDCAD and the 2-day timeframe perspectives. In recent times USDCAD showed up with an important first impulse to the upside which has formed the first wave A from where on USDCAD moved on to continue forming this main descending-channel-formation in which it is consolidating and established a wave-count reaching from wave A to C which has almost already completed. Now as USDCAD showed up with this great bounce off the lower-boundary to the upside and now continued with a breakout above the upper-boundary of the descending-channel. This breakout now completed the whole formation as a bull-flag-formation from where USDCAD has the ability to build up on and continue further bullishly to the upside. When this happens USDCAD will appoint the upper target-zones within the 1.34 USD level marked in blue, once this zone has been reached the situation needs to be elevated anew and USDCAD needs to show if it manages to continue further bullishly or firstly shows up with a reversal, it will be an important development ahead. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, it will be great when you support it with a like, follow and comment for more upcoming market analysis, all the best! "The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
6