EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum with 2.04R ShortEUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum with 2.04R Short Opportunity
Current Market Structure
The EUR/USD is displaying a clear bearish trend across multiple timeframes, with price action showing lower highs and lower lows since late 2024. Analysis of the charts reveals:
Daily timeframe: Sustained downtrend since October 2024, with price currently testing resistance near 1.0380
4-hour timeframe: "Confirmed" bearish alignment with both the 8 EMA and 21 EMA positioned below the 55 EMA
1-hour timeframe: Similar bearish configuration, reinforcing the short bias
EMA System Confirmation
The proprietary EMA System Status indicator demonstrates strong bearish conviction:
240 Signal: Bearish
240 Trend: Bearish
Alignment: Confirmed
This triple confirmation suggests high-probability conditions for short entries.
Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
1.0300: Psychological round number
1.0230: Recent swing low and profit target
1.0200: Major psychological support
Resistance Levels:
1.0400: Key resistance zone with 200 EMA confluence
1.0430: Stop placement zone above recent swing high
1.0500: Major psychological resistance
Correlation Analysis
Supporting the bearish thesis, the DXY (Dollar Index) shows a complementary bullish structure with:
Confirmed bullish alignment on the 4-hour timeframe
Recent break above the 107.00 resistance level
Bullish momentum in MACD
This inverse correlation adds significant weight to the EUR/USD short setup.
Trade Parameters
Entry Strategy:
Short at 1.03632
Stop Loss at 1.04287 (65.5 pips)
Profit Target at 1.02296 (133.6 pips)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.04
Risk Management:
1% account risk allocation
0.5 lot position size
$500 risk per trade (on $50,000 account)
Potential profit: $1,019.85
Technical Confluence Factors
Several factors align to support this trade setup:
Price rejecting at 55 EMA resistance on multiple timeframes
MACD showing bearish momentum and alignment
Weekly and daily session boundaries reinforcing resistance zones
Recent higher timeframe rejection of the 200 EMA
Market Timing Considerations
The European and US economic calendars should be monitored for:
ECB monetary policy statements
Federal Reserve commentary
US dollar-impacting economic data releases
Conclusion
The EUR/USD presents a high-probability short opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio of 2.04. All key technical indicators align bearishly across multiple timeframes, with strong correlation confirmation from the DXY. This setup fits the criteria for a "Confirmed" signal within our trading system, meeting our standards for trade execution.
Trade management will follow our established protocol with potential scaling out at interim support levels and trailing stops implemented once price moves beyond the 1:1 risk-reward ratio point.
Forex
Bearish drop?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.5686
1st Support: 0.5547
1st Resistance: 0.5761
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
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ETHUSD WEEKLY CHARTS (ETHUSD)Alternative (Bullish) Analysis
1. Potential Breakout Above 2835 Resistance
The current analysis assumes Ethereum will reject from the 2835 resistance and drop back to 2146.
However, given the strong upward momentum (+13.46%), ETH could break above 2835 instead of reversing.
A daily close above 2835 could trigger a rally toward 3000+.
2. Support Holding at Higher Levels
Instead of expecting a drop to 2146, ETH may form a higher low around 2400 – 2500, which would confirm bullish continuation.
If it retests 2500 and holds, it could bounce back up toward the resistance and push higher.
3. Volume & Momentum Confirmation
The sharp breakout suggests strong buying pressure.
If volume remains high, ETH could invalidate the resistance level and start a new uptrend.
4. Market Sentiment & Macro Factors
If Bitcoin remains bullish, Ethereum will likely follow suit, pushing above resistance levels.
The broader crypto market’s strength could support a continuation rather than a rejection.
Conclusion
Instead of expecting a double-top rejection at 2835, traders should watch for a potential breakout. If ETH stabilizes above 2500, it could lead to a move toward 3000, rather than a drop to 2146
GBP/USD Outlook TodayHello everyone! Let's take a look at GBP/USD today.
Since the market opened, GBP/USD has shown a slight recovery, currently hovering around 1.259 with support from bullish factors.
This rebound is driven by the mild weakness of the US dollar. Concerns over the US economic outlook and expectations of further Fed policy easing have prevented the USD from sustaining its previous three-day rebound.
Currently, GBP/USD remains within an ascending price channel, bouncing back after touching the lower boundary. If buyers successfully defend this trendline, it won’t be difficult for GBP/USD to aim for higher targets.
Happy trading!
GBPUSD Week 10 Swing Zone/LevelsWeek by week pinched pips keeps increasing.
As highlighted last week, Weekly zone and levels are mapped based on previous week daily high-low relationship (ie Monday HL in relation to Tuesday in relation to Wednesday HL, etc).
Using the 5min candle for entry keeps the SL small btw 10-15 pips and TP ideally to the next level. Some swing levels are only marked after price interacts pre-calculated levels.
Two possible road maps for the week, a or b?
As always price action determines trades.
SPY Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 594.00
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 602.54
Safe Stop Loss - 590.04
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ: Long Trade with Entry/SL/TP
QQQ
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long QQQ
Entry Point - 508.17
Stop Loss - 501.12
Take Profit - 522.71
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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USDJPY Massive Short! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for USDJPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 150.60
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 149.93
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
How Will GBP/USD Move at the End of the Trading Session?Hello everyone! Let’s take a look at how GBP/USD might move as we approach the final trading session of the week.
As expected, GBP/USD declined yesterday, extending its losses below 1.2580 in today’s session, with no signs of a bullish correction yet. Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies from U.S. President Donald Trump has weakened the British pound against the U.S. dollar, making GBP/USD look even more bearish.
Technical Outlook: GBP/USD is targeting lower levels, with the trend channel under pressure. The pair has dropped to the EMA 34 and 89 levels, reinforcing the probability of further downside momentum. If buyers continue to lose ground to the bears, 1.2460 will be the next major support level to defend.
Bitcoin/USDT 1-Hour Outlook: Consolidation Near 200 EMA at 86k.As traders awaiting for breakout
1. **Trend & EMA (200):**
- The **200-period EMA** (Exponential Moving Average) is plotted, acting as dynamic support/resistance.
- Price hovering near the EMA suggests a potential inflection point. A sustained break above could signal bullish momentum, while a drop below may indicate bearish pressure.
2. **Key Levels:**
- **Immediate Resistance:** 86,000 USDT (current price level).
- **Support Levels:** 84,000 → 82,000 → 80,000 USDT.
- A close below 84,000 could trigger further downside toward 82k or 80k. Conversely, holding above 86k might target new highs.
4. **Actionable Insights:**
- **Bullish Scenario:** Hold long positions if price sustains above 86k, targeting 88k–90k.
- **Bearish Scenario:** A break below 84k could signal short opportunities toward 82k.
- Use tight stop-losses (e.g., below 84k for longs) due to the tight consolidation range.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the initial rally attempt in this week's trading session, The Euro failed to reach our target of Inner Currency Rally 1.060 due to prevailing bearish sentiment. As a result, the market established a Mean Resistance target of 1.041. The current trend suggests a continuation of the downward price movement toward our designated target of Mean Support at 1.030, and there may be a retest of the Completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.020 via Key Support at 1.024. Conversely, if the anticipated downward trend does not materialize, we may witness the Eurodollar retesting the Mean Resistance level of 1.041 and subsequently target the Inner Currency Rally level of 1.060.
NATGAS What Next? BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for NATGAS is below:
The market is trading on 3.819 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 4.073
Recommended Stop Loss - 3.667
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUDUSD: Bearish Outlook For Next Week Explained 🇦🇺🇺🇸
AUDUSD broke and closed below a significant daily horizontal support on Friday.
It feels like the pair is returning to a global bearish trend.
The market will most likely continue falling.
Next support - 0.61725
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USDCHF: Will Keep Falling! Here is Why:
Balance of buyers and sellers on the USDCHF pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
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GBPJPY A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
GBPJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 189.95 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 189.26
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUDNZD Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on AUDNZD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.1089 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.1072
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USD/JPY Fake Breakout and Bearish Reversal SetupThis is a technical analysis chart for USD/JPY, showing a potential bearish reversal after a breakout attempt.
Analysis:
Key Levels:
Resistance: Near 151.039 (recent high, indicated by the blue arrow).
Support: Around 150.500 and 150.000 (marked within the red consolidation box).
Market Structure:
The price was consolidating in a range (red box).
It broke out briefly above resistance, but the breakout appears weak.
The price is now falling back inside the range, indicating a fakeout.
Potential Trade Setup:
Bearish Bias: If the price fails to hold above 151.039, it may retest the lower range.
Target Levels:
First target: Around 150.500 (mid-range support).
Second target: Around 150.000 (lower support of the range).
Stop Loss (SL): Above 151.039, in case of another breakout attempt.
Volume Confirmation:
The volume spiked on the breakout, but the quick rejection suggests a lack of strong buying pressure.
If volume increases on the way down, it supports a bearish move.
Trading Bias:
Bearish short-term outlook due to fake breakout and rejection at resistance.
Expecting a move back into the range, potentially testing lower support levels.