Market Analysis: NZD/USD Struggles to Sustain Gains—What’s Next?Market Analysis: NZD/USD Struggles to Sustain Gains—What’s Next?
NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.5700.
Important Takeaways for NZD/USD Analysis Today
- NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.5760 resistance zone.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5715 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.5760 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.5725 against the US Dollar.
The pair settled below the 0.5720 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 0.5695 zone and is currently consolidating losses.
Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5736 swing high to the 0.5693 low at 0.5715. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5715.
The next resistance is the 0.5725 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5736 swing high to the 0.5693 low. If there is a move above 0.5725, the pair could rise toward 0.5750.
Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 0.5800 resistance zone in the coming days. On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near the 0.5705 level.
The next major support is near the 0.5695 zone. If there is a downside break below 0.5695, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.5665 level. The next key support is near 0.5640.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Forex
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Struggles to Sustain Gains—What’s Next?Market Analysis: AUD/USD Struggles to Sustain Gains—What’s Next?
AUD/USD declined below the 0.6320 and 0.6300 support levels.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6320 level against the US Dollar.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6300 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6330 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6300 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.
The pair even settled below 0.6280 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6270. A low was formed at 0.6269 and the pair is now consolidating losses.
On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6295 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6312 swing high to the 0.6269 low.
There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6300. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6312 swing high to the 0.6269 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.6310 zone, above which the price could rise toward 0.6320.
Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.6330 resistance. A close above the 0.6330 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6380.
On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6270 zone. The next support sits at 0.6260. If there is a downside break below 0.6260, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6200. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6165 support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
HelenP. I Gold is still rising and can reach 3115 pointsHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Some time ago, the price tested Support 2 at the 2985 level, which coincided with the support zone between 2985 and 2976 points. This area provided strong support, resulting in a bullish reaction that pushed Gold significantly higher. After bouncing from this key support zone, the price began a steady upward movement, eventually breaking above Support 1 at the 3055 level. This breakout was an important signal, as buyers continued to dominate, driving Gold further up. Following this breakout, the price continued its bullish momentum, clearly holding above the trend line, which has repeatedly acted as reliable support during this rise. Recently, Gold reached the support zone at 3055-3065 points again, retested it, and confirmed the strength of the buyers with a quick upward reaction. Currently, the price is trading comfortably above this support zone and remains firmly bullish in structure. Given the recent bullish impulse, the successful retest of the support zone, and the continuing hold above the trend line, I expect the price to move upward toward my current goal at 3115 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
GOLD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 3,118.23.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 3,093.41 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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USDCAD Will Go Higher! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USDCAD.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.434.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.444 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GBPUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.294.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.305.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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CADJPY Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for CADJPY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 104.000.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 102.916 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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BITCOIN Is Going Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 83,714.88.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 81,433.62 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸
For the last 2 weeks, EURUSD shows a strong bearish momentum.
The price managed to break and close below a key daily support cluster.
A strong bearish reaction that followed after its retest confirms a strong
selling pressure.
I think that the pair has a potential to drop lower this week.
2️⃣ #GBPUSD daily time frame 🇬🇧🇺🇸
In comparison to EURUSD, GBPUSD looks very stable.
The pair is consolidating within quite a wide range on a daily.
For now, probabilities are high that sideways movement will continue.
Consider trading the upper and lower boundary of the underlined channel.
Alternatively, a breakout of one of the underlined structures will give you a strong
bullish/breaish signal.
3️⃣ #USDJPY daily time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Looks like the market is returning to a mid-term bearish trend.
The price is currently breaking a support line of a bearish flag pattern.
A daily candle close below its support will provide a strong bearish confirmation.
4️⃣ #AUDUSD daily time frame 🇦🇺🇺🇸
I see a completed head & shoulders pattern on a daily.
The price is currently breaking its neckline.
A daily candle close below that will provide a strong bearish confirmation
and suggest a highly probable bearish continuation.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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SILVER BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,407.8
Target Level: 3,255.2
Stop Loss: 3,509.1
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
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EUR/AUD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
EUR/AUD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 1.730
Target Level: 1.720
Stop Loss: 1.737
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
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EUR/CAD BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
EUR/CAD pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 1H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 1.542 area.
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EUR/JPY BEST PLACE TO BUY FROM|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are targeting the 162.927 level area with our long trade on EUR/JPY which is based on the fact that the pair is oversold on the BB band scale and is also approaching a support line below thus going us a good entry option.
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EURUSD 4H Bearish Cross starting the peak formation.The EURUSD pair posted a strong rebound last week, which is along the lines of our long-term bearish structure estimate, similar to the September 2024 Top.
The 4H MA50/100 Bearish Cross that was formed on Thursday, simply confirms that the pattern goes according to plan as on September 06 2024, the price got rejected after its completion and then rebounded to test Resistance 1 before the ultimate market peak.
We still expect a similar development, with our ultimate long-term Target being 1.03650, just above Support 1.
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EUR/USD: Range-Bound with Bearish Potential Below ResistanceThe EUR/USD market recently completed an ABC pullback, briefly testing above Friday’s high, but price action remains contained within last week’s range, signaling a lack of clear trend direction.
If the price rejects the current resistance zone, a move lower is likely, possibly forming another ABC structure toward the 1.06000 support level. With the zone below 1.07700 already cleared—despite a prior false breakout—a retest of that area is possible. Unless the price manages a close above 1.08500, the pair is expected to drift toward last week’s low, with the next target at the support zone around 1.07610
AUD/CHF SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD/CHF pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 3H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 0.553 area.
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Smart Money Technique (SMT) Divergences - The Ultimate GuideIntroduction
SMT Divergences are a powerful concept used by professional traders to spot inefficiencies in the market. By comparing correlated assets, traders can identify hidden opportunities where one market shows strength while the other shows weakness. This guide will break down the major SMT divergences: EURUSD/GBPUSD, US100/US500, and XAUUSD/XAGUSD .
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What is SMT Divergence?
SMT Divergence occurs when two correlated assets do not move in sync, signaling potential liquidity grabs or market inefficiencies. These divergences can be used to confirm trend reversals, identify smart money movements, and improve trade precision.
Key Concepts:
- If one asset makes a higher high while the correlated asset fails to do so, this suggests potential weakness in the pair making the higher high.
- If one asset makes a lower low while the correlated asset does not, this suggests potential strength in the pair that did not make a lower low.
- Smart Money often exploits these inefficiencies to engineer liquidity hunts before moving price in the intended direction.
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EURUSD vs. GBPUSD SMT Divergence
These two forex pairs are highly correlated because both share the USD as the quote currency. However, when divergence occurs, it often signals liquidity manipulations.
How to Use:
- If GBPUSD makes a higher high but EURUSD does not, GBPUSD may be trapping breakout traders before reversing.
- If EURUSD makes a lower low but GBPUSD does not, EURUSD might be in a liquidity grab, signaling a potential reversal.
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US100 vs. US500 SMT Divergence
The NASDAQ (US100) and S&P 500 (US500) are both major indices with a strong correlation, but tech-heavy NASDAQ can sometimes lead or lag the S&P.
How to Use:
- If US100 makes a higher high but US500 does not, it suggests US100 is extended and may reverse soon.
- If US500 makes a lower low but US100 does not, US500 might be experiencing a liquidity grab before a reversal.
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XAUUSD vs. XAGUSD SMT Divergence
Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) have a historic correlation. However, due to differences in volatility and liquidity, they can diverge, presenting trading opportunities.
How to Use:
- If Gold makes a higher high but Silver does not, Gold might be overextended and ready to reverse.
- If Silver makes a lower low but Gold does not, Silver might be in a liquidity grab, signaling strength.
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Indicator Used for SMT Divergences
To simplify the process of identifying SMT divergences, this guide utilizes the TradingView indicator TehThomas ICT SMT Divergences . This tool automatically detects divergences between correlated assets, highlighting potential trade opportunities.
You can access the indicator here:
Why Use This Indicator?
- Automatically plots divergences, saving time on manual comparisons.
- Works across multiple asset classes (Forex, Indices, Metals, etc.).
- Helps traders spot Smart Money inefficiencies with ease.
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Final Tips for Trading SMT Divergences
1. Use Higher Timeframes for Confirmation: SMT Divergences on 1H or 4H hold more weight than those on lower timeframes.
2. Combine with Other Confluences: ICT concepts like Order Blocks, FVGs, or liquidity sweeps can strengthen the SMT setup.
3. Wait for Market Structure Confirmation: After spotting SMT divergence, look for a market structure shift before entering trades.
4. Be Mindful of Economic Events: Divergences can appear due to news releases, so always check the economic calendar.
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Conclusion
SMT Divergences are a valuable tool for traders looking to gain an edge in the markets. By analyzing inefficiencies between correlated assets, traders can anticipate smart money movements and improve trade precision. Practice spotting these divergences on real charts, and soon, you'll develop a keen eye for hidden liquidity traps.
Happy trading!
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area 3100.Wave “3” is still continuing its progression. This means that the five-wave impulse is not over yet and we expect the upward movement to continue.
Of course I would like to see wave “4” as a corrective wave in the area of 3024 level, then I expect an upward movement to the area of 3100 level. This level is also considered to be quite strong, from which there could be a correction.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
BTCUSDTAccording to this analysis, if the price reaches around $70,000 in a corrective structure with a time-consuming and low momentum in the form of wave F, it may grow to around $120,000 and even higher in the form of wave G.
But it seems that the ideal buying point is around $60,000 and the origin of the breakout node. In this case, of course, we will have a strong wave F, which means that we must be a little flexible in the possible targets of wave G.
In terms of time, late June, July and early August are the ideal time areas for the end of wave F, and late 2025 and early 2026 are the time areas for the end of the two waves G.
NZDCHF: Bear Trap & Pullback From Support 🇳🇿🇨🇭
It looks like we have a bearish trap on NZDCHF after
a test of a key daily support.
The price went way below that but recovered steadily,
forming a double bottom pattern.
A formation of a bullish imbalance candle on an hourly
indicate a very likely bullish movement.
Goal - 0.5035
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NZDCAD Potential Bullish ReversalNZDCAD price seems to exhibit signs of a potential Bullish Reversal on the shorter timeframes if the price action forms a credible Higher High with multiple confluences from key Fibonacci and Support levels.
Trade Plan :
Entry @ 0.822500
Stop Loss @ 0.81600
TP 0.9 - 1 @ 0.82830 - 0.82890
CAD/CNH SHORT Investment Opportunity
Hello, I am Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to share with you a short trade on CAD/CNH.
In the world of Forex, every open position tells a story of analysis and strategic choices. This time I decided to focus on a short position on the CAD/CNH currency pair, with a particular focus on risk management and achieving the objectives set.
Trade details:
Entry Price (Entry Point): 5.09402
Stop Loss (SL): 5.10417
Take Profit (TP): 5.06362
Being a short position, my goal is to capture a potential decline in the Canadian dollar against the Chinese yuan. I set a Stop Loss at 5.10417 to limit any losses and a Take Profit at 5.06362 to ensure a profitable exit if the market moves as expected.
Why CAD/CNH?
This currency pair offers an interesting dynamic related to macroeconomic factors from Canada and China, including export data, monetary policies and global market movements. Technical analysis highlights patterns that justify a potential downtrend, ideal for a short position.
Conclusion
Forex trading requires discipline and patience, but every trade is an opportunity for growth and learning. I will continue to monitor the market and update you on the evolution of this position. Don't forget: risk management is always the priority!
EUR/CAD long setup (Falling wedge pattern)**EUR/CAD (Euro/Canadian Dollar) currency pair** on a **1-hour timeframe**. Here are the key details:
**Chart Analysis:**
1. **Pattern Identified:**
- A **falling wedge** pattern has been detected, which is generally a **bullish reversal** signal.
- The price has broken out of the wedge, confirming the reversal.
2. **Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs):**
- **EMA 7 (Purple):** 1.54373
- **EMA 21 (Blue):** 1.54117
- **EMA 50 (Yellow):** 1.54102
- Price is now **above these EMAs**, indicating a possible uptrend continuation.
3. **Price Action:**
- The breakout has led to a strong bullish move.
- The **target** is marked above the breakout point, suggesting further upside potential.
- Current price: **1.54411**
4. **Volume Insight:**
- Volume increased during the breakout, confirming buying pressure.
**Conclusion:**
- The falling wedge breakout suggests **bullish momentum** in EUR/CAD.
- If price sustains above the EMAs, it could reach the marked **target zone**.
- Watch for **support at 1.541** and resistance near the **target level**.
The **target** after the **falling wedge breakout** is marked on the chart and appears to be around **1.5480 - 1.5500**.
**Key Levels to Watch:**
- **Support:** 1.5410 (EMA 50)
- **Resistance/Target:** Around **1.5480 - 1.5500**
If momentum continues, price may reach this **target zone**.
The ideal **stop-loss (SL)** for this EUR/CAD trade should be placed **below the breakout zone** of the falling wedge to minimize risk.
**Suggested SL Levels:**
1. **Conservative SL:** **1.5400** (Below EMA 50 & breakout structure)
2. **Aggressive SL:** **1.5375** (Below the last swing low inside the wedge)