Gold Price Analysis February 12⭐️Fundamental Analysis
Asian and European traders were cautious ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks to Congress. Powell said he was in no rush to adjust monetary policy and wanted to see more progress on inflation, saying the economy was in a "pretty good place." His remarks helped stabilize financial markets, helping Wall Street trim losses and the dollar recover.
Powell will continue his testimony on Wednesday, and investors are also awaiting January CPI data, which is forecast to have risen 2.9% year-on-year, with core annual growth of around 3.1%.
⭐️Technical Analysis
Gold is accepting the 2941 area as a top, and the decline has created quite clear structures. 2873-2871 is an important support zone in pushing gold prices to increase again. If gold prices cannot close the h4 candle above 2890, it will be considered a confirmation of a dow breakout and a downtrend wave that can extend to 2833. In the direction of gold going up again, 2807 and 2827 will be the zones that the SELL side will pay attention to in order to participate in the market.
Forex
Bullish continuation?NZD/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 86.33
1st Support: 85.68
1st Resistance: 88.07
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EURUSD (2H) - High Volatility and Bearish MomentumOANDA:EURUSD
📶 Technical Analysis:
Weekly Chart
🟢 The overall trend has been consistently bearish since October 2024, indicating a longer-term downtrend
🟢 A strong level of support has been broken and tested at 1.0500, indicating potential for further bearish movement.
🟠 In the past three weeks, volatility has significantly increased, due to a combination of fundamental factors.
Daily Chart
🟢 The overall trend has been bearish since October 2024, reinforcing a larger downside momentum.
4-Hour Chart
🟡 There was a bullish trend early in 2025, but it was broken, and bearish momentum took over by the end of January.
🔴 The February opening gap, influenced by Trump tariffs, caused a strong bullish volatility before a reversal took place.
2-Hour Chart
🟢 A reversal pattern in the form of a double top is visible, suggesting that the bullish momentum has ended. This pattern has been confirmed by two lower highs and two lower lows.
🟡 Watch for a retest of the 1.035 resistance level and confirmation of the double top pattern.
🟢 A break below the recent low at 1.030 would suggest continued bearish movement.
🟠 The next strong support level on the daily chart is around 1.022, where the price could potentially stall or reverse if it moves lower.
🆕 Fundamental Analysis:
🟢 The EUR/USD dropped to near 1.0360 after the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January.
🟡 US Labor Market: The economy added 143K jobs, fewer than expected (170K), but the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4% (better than the expected 4.1%).
🟡 The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in its June meeting, but this is uncertain due to mixed signals from the labor market. Chair Powell indicated that any rate adjustments will depend on real progress in inflation or weakness in the labor market.
🟢 President Trump warned of potential tariffs on European goods, which could hurt the Eurozone economy. The Eurozone is facing increased uncertainty, with concerns about higher US tariffs negatively affecting growth.
🟢 EUR/USD faces continued selling pressure, as the Eurozone's economic outlook remains weak, especially with the risk of US tariffs and a dovish ECB.
🔤 Summary:
🟡 Neutral Position Above Red Trend Line: If the price breaks above the red trend line, it could signal a shift to a neutral position, requiring fresh analysis for clearer direction.
🟢 Bearish Continuation Confirmation: As long as the price remains below resistance and the double top formation holds, a bearish continuation is likely.
🟡 Watch for Key Breaks: Pay attention to the break below 1.030 and how price reacts to the 1.022 support level for further confirmation of the bearish trend.
GBPUSD, Pull-back time has arrivedGBPUSD/ 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
GBPUSD is showing strong bullish momentum after the dollar index DXY
broke below resistance. However, the price is at the overbought zone for now. Hence, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pullback into the middle of the range zone for a more strategic entry.
If the pullback holds and buy mode confirms, the next leg higher could target:
Weekly high shown in the chart
Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence!
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
EURUSD: Channel Up aiming at 1.05750EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.912, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 23.143) as it has been ranging inside a Channel Up for the past month. The pair is now forming a Golden Cross on the 1H timeframe and based on the last one formed on the previous bullish wave (Jan 17th), it should now rise to a new HH. We expect a symmetric +2.70% rise on that move (TP = 1.05750).
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USD/CAD: Breaking Below Key SupportChart Analysis:
USD/CAD is showing signs of weakness, having dipped below the key 1.4300 support level, putting further downside into focus.
1️⃣ Breakdown Below Support:
The 1.4300 level, which previously acted as strong support, has now failed.
Sustained trading below this level could accelerate bearish momentum.
2️⃣ Moving Averages Tilting Bearish:
50-day SMA (1.4331): Recently breached, acting as newfound resistance.
200-day SMA (1.3872): Remains a key long-term support zone.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators Reflect Weakness:
RSI: 42.68, signaling bearish momentum but not yet oversold.
MACD: Sliding further into negative territory, confirming downside bias.
What to Watch:
If price remains below 1.4300, downside targets include 1.4200, followed by the 1.4000 handle.
A recovery back above 1.4300 could neutralize short-term downside pressure.
Bearish momentum is building, but a potential oversold bounce could emerge if selling extends too aggressively.
USD/CAD is at risk of deeper losses as support turns into resistance—further declines look likely unless bulls reclaim control.
-MW
USD/MXN: Testing Support Within a Tight RangeChart Analysis:
USD/MXN remains stuck in sideways consolidation, with price action respecting both rising trendline support and overhead resistance at 20.80.
1️⃣ Support and Resistance Levels Holding:
Key resistance at 20.80 has repeatedly capped rallies, preventing a breakout.
Trendline support near 20.40 continues to hold, but a breakdown could open the door to further downside.
2️⃣ Moving Averages Provide Guidance:
50-day SMA (20.42): Acting as a dynamic support zone.
200-day SMA (19.28): Remains well below, reinforcing a longer-term bullish bias.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators Show Lack of Conviction:
RSI: 48.64, indicating neutral momentum with no clear direction.
MACD: Barely above zero, reflecting a lack of strong trend momentum.
What to Watch:
A breakout above 20.80 could trigger fresh upside, targeting 21.00+.
A break below 20.40 would signal a potential reversal toward the 20.00 handle.
Sideways price action remains dominant, awaiting a catalyst for direction.
USD/MXN continues to coil within a tight range, leaving traders watching for a decisive breakout or breakdown.
-MW
Bearish drop?USD/CHF has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.9146
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 0.9200
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.9072
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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USD/JPY: Fibonacci Support Sparks a ReboundChart Analysis:
USD/JPY finds support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (151.50), leading to a sharp recovery above the 200-day SMA.
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement Levels Holding:
The recent pullback tested key Fibonacci retracement levels, with buyers stepping in at 151.50 (38.2%).
Further support levels sit at 149.23 (50%) and 146.95 (61.8%), which remain key downside targets if weakness resumes.
2️⃣ Moving Averages as Key Pivot Points:
50-day SMA (154.97): Price is testing this level after the rebound.
200-day SMA (152.74): Successfully held as dynamic support, confirming broader uptrend remains intact.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators Show Recovery:
RSI: 49.69, recovering from oversold conditions but still lacking bullish confirmation.
MACD: Bearish momentum is fading, but a crossover signal is yet to emerge.
What to Watch:
Sustained move above 155.00 could trigger a fresh rally toward December’s highs.
A break back below 152.00 would shift focus to deeper Fibonacci support levels.
Watch for a MACD crossover as a confirmation of renewed upside momentum.
USD/JPY remains at a critical inflection point, with Fibonacci support holding but further strength needed for a bullish confirmation.
-MW
Bearish drop?USD/CAD is reacting off the support level which is a pullback support and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.4279
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 1.4361
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.4178
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish rise?EUR/USD has broken out of the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0389
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.0331
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 1.0457
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Gold Uptrend is Breaking Don’t Miss This High Probability ShortGold has been on an incredible 49-day bullish run, but signs are emerging that the momentum is fading. Is the reversal finally here? In this analysis, I break down why I believe gold is setting up for a potential short opportunity and how I plan to execute it.
Starting from the weekly timeframe, we identify a key rejection at $2943, signaling potential exhaustion after an extended bullish trend. On the daily timeframe, price has failed to hold above $2897, forming a critical rejection zone that could lead to further downside.
Diving deeper into the H4 and H1 timeframes, we observe a key structure break around $2900, followed by price failing to create a new high. This shift in market structure suggests a weakening bullish trend, increasing the probability of a bearish follow-through.
Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 Break & Retest Setup: Waiting for a clean break below $2881 (yesterday’s daily low), followed by a retest to confirm the sell-side momentum.
🔹 Bearish Target Zones: Liquidity levels at $2854, $2788, and $2747, with a final downside objective near $2746.
🔹 Risk Management: Stops will be determined based on price action confirmation, ensuring a controlled approach to the trade.
With buyers struggling to push higher and multiple liquidity pockets below, we could see a sharp pullback before any further upside continuation. This is not a long-term bearish call on gold but rather a short-term high-probability short setup to capitalize on potential downside movement.
📉 Will gold break lower, or will buyers regain control? Watch the full analysis, boost this idea, and share it with fellow traders so you don’t miss the next big move! 🚀💰
NZDUSD preparing massive rebound on the 5-year Support Zone.The NZDUSD pair rebounded last week exactly at the top of the 5-year Support Zone. This is the 3rd time in total and first since October 10 2022.
As you can see, both previous times that this Support Zone was touched, the price reacted with an immediate rebound and skyrocketed to the long-term Resistance Zone (0.65150 - 0.65850). Also on both those bottoms, the 1W RSI broke below the 30.00 oversold barrier and rebounded.
This time, we have the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) to consider as the first long-term Resistance, so our Target is just below a potential extension of it at 0.6200.
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AUDJPY Is Recovering After The Wedge PatternAUDJPY pair is sharply and impulsively recovering after we spotted the wedge pattern, so it’s now rising in minimum three waves A/1-B/2-C/3 that can retrace the price back to the starting point of the wedge pattern and back to 99-100 area, especially if we consider an unfilled GAP at 98.35 level. Currently we can see it making a five-wave impulse into wave A/1, so after corrective pullback in wave B/2, be aware of a bigger rally within wave C or maybe even wave 3 if goes decisively above 100 area.
The ending diagonal (wedge) pattern is a special type of wave that occurs in wave 5 of an impulse or wave C of a correction. An ending diagonal pattern is a type of pattern that can occur at the completion of a strong move. It reflects a “calming” of the market sentiment such that price still moves generally in the direction of the larger move, but not strongly enough to produce an impulsive wave. Ending diagonals consist of five waves, labeled 1-2-3-4-5, where each wave subdivides into three legs. Waves 1 and 4 overlap in price, while wave 3 can not be the shortest amongst waves 1, 3 and 5.
The reason why they are so interesting is because they are indicating a reversal, usually a strong one, which can retrace the price back to the starting point of the pattern.