Short term trading strategy for todayXAUUSD charge dropped sharply on the quit of remaining week, however that is the adjustment length of the H1 and H4 frames, long-time period gold remains in an uptrend.
Price regions to be aware of subsequent week are
the resistance place 2408 - 2410 and the help place 2356 - 2360.
Forexmarket
AUD USD TRADE SET UP AUD/USD pair has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, indicating a potential trend reversal.
A short entry will be executed upon a retest of the neckline on the lower timeframe.
The first target is set at a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, and the second target is at the 4-hour demand level.
Who else is watching AUD/USD?
The world XAU market turned around after rising higherAs mentioned to readers in yesterday`s edition, gold has suffered a downward correction after the Relative Strength Index operated withinside the overbought area, indicating that the room for rate will increase is now no longer too great. big and require modifications after a protracted length of rate will increase.
Currently, gold is likewise working pretty low however does now no longer have an effect on the primary fashion of rate growth with the rate channel as the quick-time period fashion and long-time period fashion. In the quick time period, the truth that gold can get better to keep above the technical stage of 2,430 USD might be an excellent signal for it. On the alternative hand, if gold recovers lower back above $2,449, it's going to mark the stop of the downward adjustment cycle.
During the day, gold may want to preserve to accurate similarly as soon as it's miles bought below $2,420 with a next drawback goal of around $2,400.
The downward correction cycle from the uptrend of gold expenses might be observed once more via way of means of the subsequent technical levels. Support: 2,420 - 2,400USD Resistance: 2,430 - 2,449USD
Gold retreated from the peakGold prices have dropped more than 1.5% from the peak of 2,483 USD/ounce. US unemployment claims exceeded forecasts, showing the economy is slowing and strengthening the case for interest rate cuts. DXY index increased 0.43% to 104.18; 10-year US government bond yield increased 2.5 bps to 4,187%.
In the context of extremely increased expectations of interest rate cuts in September, gold prices reached a new all-time high of 2,483 USD, but demand could not maintain the upward momentum as a part of investors moved forward. take profit. This, along with former US President Donald Trump's announcement of imposing at least 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, has boosted the flow of money back to the USD.
reinforce market sentiment when gold rises too highInterest rate expectations: Investors expect the FOMC will start cutting interest rates from September onwards.
Geopolitical instability: Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to destabilize markets, causing investors to seek haven assets such as gold.
Central banks diversify reserves: Central banks are proactively increasing the amount of gold in their reserves, reducing dependence on the USD. Although China recently paused gold purchases, a World Gold Council (WGC) report shows that 20 other central banks still plan to increase their gold holdings.
Rising demand: Demand for gold from people in India and China shows no signs of slowing down. India's gold reserves are at their highest level in two years, and a real estate market downturn in China is driving up gold demand.
Gold increased sharply after US economic data weakenedXAU stays near historic peak, domestic gold skyrockets after more than 2 months of "immobility"
World gold prices continue to climb and are at a historic peak due to the further weakening of the USD.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is betting on a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on September 18.
Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that recently released data "increases confidence" that inflation is falling sustainably toward the Fed's target level.
Many Fed policymakers also said they are increasingly optimistic that inflation is on track and falling toward the 2% target mark.
AUD/USD on a 15-minute timeframeThe blue highlighted area around the 0.67253-0.67288 level represents a strong support zone.
The price has tested this area multiple times and shown a tendency to bounce back from it.
The current price is around 0.67288-0.67276, which is near the support zone.
The resistance level is marked around 0.67547, indicating a potential target for the bullish move.
The projection indicates a potential bullish move from the support zone up to the resistance level around 0.67547. This suggests an expectation of a price increase after possibly forming a base around the support.
Consider entering a long position around the current price level (0.67288) or slightly lower, closer to the support zone (0.67253).
Ensure proper risk management by setting stop losses and monitoring key levels for any invalidation of the bullish scenario.
XAU increased to a record high everXAU price increased quite strongly to near historical peak after the instability taking place in the world
World gold continues to increase and moves towards the historic peak of 2,450 USD/ounce recorded on May 20 after the US announced that total retail sales remained unchanged in June. In May, revised figures showed total retail sales increased 0.3%.
In fact, economists forecast that total retail sales decreased by 0.3% in June. Thus, the number announced last month exceeded expectations. However, this is not positive information.
The US economy tends to send signals that are no longer as strong as in the first few months of the year.
Previously, the US announced that inflation continued to cool down and the labor market tended to deteriorate with the unemployment rate increasing.
Cash flow will pour into gold and gold prices will reach recor hGold is assessed to benefit in the context of increased risks after the incident of former US President Donald Trump being suspected of shooting during an election campaign in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13. If Mr. Trump wins the election next November, the USD may weaken, thereby also pushing up gold prices.
Macroeconomic data that is no longer bright is the basis for US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to recently signal a reversal in monetary policy. Mr. Powell expressed concern about the weakening of the economy and the risk of recession.
In a testimony before the US Congress last week, the most powerful man in the world's financial industry said that the US will cut interest rates and not wait until inflation is clearly heading towards the 2% target.
The USD has recently declined following signals from the Fed, thereby putting pressure on gold.
Gold also increased in price thanks to positive signals from technical analysis. The upward price momentum has been established after precious metals rose quite firmly above the threshold of 2,400 USD/ounce over the past several days. Upward momentum is being confirmed and gold is forecast to set a new all-time high, possibly as soon as this week.
XAU is in a period of sky-high pricesDirector of Investment Strategy at abrdn, said that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress last week appeared to be the turning point that the market has been waiting for for a long time.
During a two-day hearing on Capitol Hill, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that risks to the economy now hang in the balance. "Rising inflation is not the only risk we face," Mr. Powell emphasized in prepared remarks.
Immediately after these comments, gold prices held the $2,400 support level and even surpassed the peak of the two-month accumulation period. The August gold futures contract set a new record at a price of 2,470.20 USD/oz.
This breakthrough took place in the context that the market was almost completely confident that the Fed would reduce interest rates in September.
The Fed shifted its focus away from inflationThere are many other credit products on the market that now have higher interest rates than before. All of this shows that the strength of the economy is declining. Even a little stress in the labor market can cause serious problems.
The Fed still has a chance to avoid a recession, which is why gold has so much potential.
There are a lot of risks and the Fed is running a little late, but they're not irreparable," he said. "This is why a rate cut in September is almost certain. Because the Fed is lagging behind, they will have to take stronger and quicker measures to keep up with the situation
Looking at the last three interest rate cycles, gold rose 57% in 2000, but silver rose 65%. Similarly, in 2006, gold increased by 235% while silver increased by 318%. And most recently, at the end of 2018, gold increased by 69% while silver increased by 101%. Silver is more volatile than gold
At this point, a rate cut in September looks very likely.A range of critical financial reviews can be launched via way of means of americaA this week. Experts expect that the gold marketplace will now no longer alternate an awful lot after those reviews.
However, the fashion of gold continues to be at the upward push because of expectancies that americaA Federal Reserve (Fed) will loosen economic coverage whilst the June customer charge index file is published.
FxPro senior marketplace analyst Alex Kuptsikevich stated that the reality that gold nonetheless continues the $2,400/ounce mark is a superb sign. He stated that presently the indicators displaying the opportunity of hobby charge cuts via way of means of the Fed have become clearer.
In any other analysis, gold is likewise expected to boom sharply via way of means of experts. Accordingly, worries approximately instability earlier than and after elections in many nations round the arena will guide the upward push of gold, pushing valuable metallic expenses to new records.
The world XAU trading price is sky-highA number of important economic reports will be released by the US this week. Experts predict that the gold market will not change much after these reports.
However, the trend of gold is still on the rise due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will loosen monetary policy when the June consumer price index report is published.
FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that the fact that gold still maintains the $2,400/ounce mark is a good sign. He said that currently the signals showing the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Fed are becoming clearer.
In another analysis, gold is also predicted to increase sharply by experts. Accordingly, concerns about instability before and after elections in many countries around the world will support the rise of gold, pushing precious metal prices to new records.
World gold has increased sharply for many weeksLeading professionals are having effective tests approximately the chance of gold charge will increase this week.
Specifically, as much as 12/thirteen Wall Street professionals expect that gold charges will boom subsequent week and most effective 1 analyst predicts that charges will decrease. While no professional predicts gold will flow sideways subsequent week.
World gold rose to a 7-week excessive and ended its 0.33 consecutive week of profits after dovish remarks from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, along side data that inflation is decreasing. as expected.
The US client charge index (CPI) document launched ultimate week confirmed that center inflation (apart from risky meals and power charges) multiplied via way of means of 3% over the equal length ultimate year, marking The annual inflation boom is the slowest considering the fact that April 2021.
Closing the buying and selling consultation ultimate week (July 14), the sector gold charge changed into indexed at 2,411.sixty seven USD/ounce.
XAU continued to rise in the first days of the weekXAU rose to a 7-week high and ended its third consecutive week of gains following dovish comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, along with news that inflation is decreasing as expected. wait.
The US consumer price index (CPI) report released last week showed that core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy prices) increased by 3% over the same period last year, marking The annual inflation increase is the slowest since April 2021.
Closing the trading session last week (July 14), the world gold price was listed at 2,411.67 USD/ounce.
Gold prices have recently increased sharplyGold can also additionally attain 2,500 USD/ounce withinside the close to destiny while the marketplace is happy through fantastic information.
Analysts at CPM Group keep to don't forget gold as a channel really well worth making an investment withinside the close to destiny. Gold charges are keeping firm, supported through issues approximately growing geopolitical instability across the world. As americaA election approaches, gold charges will boom.
World gold spot rate stands round 2,406.9
Kitco News` modern day weekly gold survey suggests professionals and shops are constructive approximately gold charges this week.
XAU stays in a bullish trend. Gold charges rose for the 1/3 consecutive week, supported through low hobby prices and a vulnerable USD.
Weak CPI document and hypothesis that americaA Federal Reserve (Fed) can also additionally reduce hobby prices greater than two times this year. Thereby, gold charges can also additionally keep to boom withinside the brief term.
XAU climbed to the top Monday morningWorld gold spot price stands around 2,406.9
Kitco News' latest weekly gold survey shows experts and retailers are optimistic about gold prices this week.
XAU remains in a bullish trend. Gold prices rose for the third consecutive week, supported by low interest rates and a weak USD.
Weak CPI report and speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates more than twice this year. Thereby, gold prices may continue to increase in the short term.
The gold market witnessed a strong increaseThe gold market is witnessing a strong bullish reaction to better-than-expected inflation data
Inflation is falling towards the Fed's 2.0% target and makes it more likely that the central bank will start cutting interest rates - a positive development for gold.
Interest rates have done a good job of bringing inflation back to the Fed's 2.0% target.
Asked about the timing of future Fed rate cuts and whether he would wait until the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), falls below target Fed before taking action, Powell said he would not do so, because "inflation has a certain momentum" and "you don't want to wait until inflation falls to 2.0%".
World gold increased sharply after CPI newsGold prices edged higher on Thursday after US CPI data fell more sharply than expected in June, boosting hopes of a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
The consumer price index (CPI) fell -0.1% last month after reaching 0.0% in May, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. Latest inflation data good than expected, as economists were expecting a 0.1% increase.
Over the past 12 months, headline inflation rose 3.0%, below expectations of 3.1% and slower than May's 3.3%, the report said. Core CPI, excluding food prices and volatile energy, up 0.1%, better than expectations of 0.2% and May's 0.2% gain.
The report also said annual core inflation rose 3.3% in June, also better than expectations and the previous month's 3.4% increase.
XAU soared sky high after news from the fedGold prices (XAU/USD) continued their upward momentum for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed market expectations that the central bank would cut interest rates in September and again in December. This limited the USD's advance and became the main factor supports this precious metal. In addition, central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves, macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks also further support XAU/USD.
Investors wait for the consumer price index in JuneThe market is expecting the first interest rate cut to take place in September. In general, the market believes that Powell's statements do not contain any new hawkish information. Maybe Mr. Powell will not offer any surprises in his comments.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday (July 9) echoed Mr. Powell's comments by saying that the US labor market is no longer driving inflation in the country. Traders and investors are now awaiting the June US consumer price index and producer price index reports released this week.
Elsewhere, in the Middle East, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said that if Hamas reaches a ceasefire agreement in Gaza with Israel, Hezbollah will stop its activities without separate negotiations. Previously, the group began shooting at Israeli targets on the border in support of the Palestinians after their ally Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7, leading to the war in Gaza.
World gold prices increased sharply thanks to demand from centraChina's failure to update gold reserves on the PBOC website does not mean the country has stopped buying. Some analysts suspect that China is keeping its gold purchases secret in the context of recent gold price escalation.
Head of Futures & Forex at Tastylive - Christopher Vecchio said that some data shows China buying gold at the end of June.
Many experts believe that PBOC will continue to buy gold to diversify foreign exchange reserves and prevent the domestic currency from depreciating.
According to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC), about 20 central banks still expect to increase their gold holdings next year, due to rising financial and geopolitical risks.
XAU rebounded after USD weakenedThe second shock from a major player in the market caused profit-taking pressure to skyrocket.
World gold pressure dropped from the July 8 session after news that the Central Bank of China (PBOC) stopped buying gold for the second consecutive month in June. According to PBOC's announcement, the amount of gold bars held by the bank As of the end of June, this was unchanged at 72.8 million ounces.
This information is contrary to some sources saying that China returned to buying gold in June.
World gold prices increased rapidly after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made less hawkish statements on monetary policy. Investors bet on the possibility that the Fed will lower interest rates at its September meeting.
The USD is forecast to decrease following the Fed's trend of cutting interest rates, thereby positively affecting gold prices.