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XAU continues to rise amid tensions in the Middle EastMost investors expect the precious metal to continue to rise next week. Experts are also optimistic about the gold price increase. After the jobs report was released, the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) wants the economy to achieve a soft landing is very low. US growth depends largely on consumption, so sluggish consumption will lead to slow growth. The disappointing jobs data shows that the Fed made a policy mistake by waiting too long to cut interest rates.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
World gold expands growth momentumamid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East Gold prices continued to extend their gains, hovering around $2,451 an ounce, thanks to safe-haven demand amid concerns over escalating tensions following the assassination of a Hamas leader in Iran. The war in Gaza and the deepening conflict in Lebanon have left the entire region in turmoil. The precious metal's gains were further fueled by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hint that a rate cut could be discussed as early as September if inflation remains in line with expectations. Traders are now awaiting the US payrolls report due out on Friday for further clues on the Fed's policy path.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster
Gold rose and held at 2454 todayExperts say that the direction of gold this week will depend on the data released last week when the market lacked important new data. The most anticipated report of the week is the purchasing managers index (PMI) in the service sector for July. A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to cut rates twice this year, starting in September. Traders are currently pricing in about a 63% chance of a September rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
Unlocking the Power of Option Analysis for Forex TradingFiltering Options by Sentiment: A Key to Profitable Trading As traders, we're constantly on the lookout for ways to gain an edge in the markets. Option portfolios analysis is not a magic solution for success itself, but it can and should be a great tool to add to your trading strategy. Learning how to analyze the option portfolios of big and successful players on one of the world's biggest exchanges can really improve your market awareness and give you more confidence when reading the current market trends. The Power of Option Analysis Option analysis is not just about identifying bullish or bearish sentiment. It's about understanding the nuances of market psychology and identifying opportunities that others may be missing. By filtering options by sentiment, we can identify portfolios that are more likely to result in profitable trades. Key Factors to Consider When filtering options by sentiment, there are several key factors to consider: 1. Size and value of the option portfolio 2. Distance from the central strike (Delta) 3. Time to expiration 4.Appearance on the rise/fall of the underlying asset By considering these factors, we can identify option portfolios that are more likely to result in profitable trades. As mentioned above, option portfolios with names such as vertical spread, butterfly, and condor (in English - VERTICAL SPREAD, IRON FLY/FLY, CONDOR/IRON CONDOR) have predictive sentiment regarding the direction of the asset's price movement. However, it is critically important to be able to filter out such sentiment, since similar portfolios are widely used and appear almost daily in CME exchange reports, but only a small percentage of them have predictive value. Portfolios that are traded during a price movement with an obvious trend have low value. On the other hand, if a portfolio appears in a sideways market before the start of a trend and meets other conditions, which will be discussed later, it is reasonable to fix such a portfolio on the chart and subsequently track its correction (closure/partial closure/re-sale). If you "caught" such a portfolio that is already generating profit for its owner, i.e., the price is moving in the desired direction, you get an additional bonus: by tracking changes in this portfolio, you can understand whether the price movement will continue in the chosen direction or whether the movement is fading or has exhausted its potential and it's time to close your position. It is necessary to track changes daily using QuickStrike and GlobexTradeBrowser by CME GROUP. If you track less frequently, you can lose the thread of sentiment. I recommend performing analysis on a regular basis. Some examples: On July 17th, there was a really big beat on the Japanese yen in the options market for October. The bed was based on the idea that the yen futures would go up (or the dollar/yen forex rate would fall). As we saw, the bat started to pay off almost immediately, and the yen came really close to the target in just a few days! Could we have used this information for forex trading? Absolutely. The risk-reward ratio on this trade was about 1 : 3, but importantly , when we made this trade, we had real insider information. Insiders are required by the exchange to disclose their trades, just like other market participants. Not using this free information in your trades would be a big mistake for a serious trader who doesn't want to gamble in market. Another example: In April this year, we saw a strong bullish option sentiment for Silver prices rising between $32 and $35, based on a large options portfolio stated at around $27.5. We released our forecast for Silver, and you can find a copy of it with our reasoning at the link Cooper example: The forecast was made after analyzing option activity on the CME exchange on April 2. You can check the results yourself and see if the time we spent studying option sentiment and analyzing was worth it. In conclusion, as you can see, incorporating option analysis into your toolkit can really help you make more informed trading decisions. To all serious traders, I wish you patience and dedication on your journey to trading success. Remember that mastering the art of trading takes time, effort, and perseverance. Don't be discouraged by setbacks or losses, but instead, use them as opportunities to learn and improve. Stay focused, stay disciplined, and stay committed to your goals.
Education
by ClashChartsTeam
4
Gold prices skyrocketed and lastedEscalating tensions in the Middle East push gold prices Gold and crude oil prices rose sharply on escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns about a wider conflict. Any escalation in tensions in the Middle East or a dovish statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tonight could send both commodities higher. Iran's leadership has made strong statements: President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that Iran would "make the occupiers (Israel) regret this cowardly act". Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei added: "We consider it our duty to avenge him". These provocative statements are raising concerns about the possibility of a wider conflict in the region. Above all, the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East is causing more worries about the potential impact on global energy markets and international relations.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster
US Treasury yields have fallen sharply, dragging gold prices upGold prices rose more than 1.0% on Thursday, helped by a sharp decline in US Treasury yields after the release of US labor market data. Specifically, the number of jobless claims in the second week of November rose more than expected, reaching 231,000, higher than the forecast of 220,000. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits also surprised by rising to 1,865,000 - the highest in nearly two years, showing the difficulty of the US labor market. Weak economic data, along with CPI and PPI data released earlier in the week, reinforced the view that the Fed's rate-hiking cycle is over. This has had a strong impact on US Treasury yields, causing the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below 4.45%, approaching its lowest level since late September. With the market expecting the Fed to gradually ease monetary policy, gold prices could maintain an upward trend in the short term. This scenario will be confirmed if US economic data continues to weaken.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
XAU rises on Fed policy and geopolitical tensionsGold prices rose above $2,400 ahead of the Fed's policy meeting, according to Sagar Dua, a financial analyst at Fxstreet. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the eighth consecutive time. In the monetary policy statement and press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reiterate that inflation has returned to the bank's 2% target. Powell may also highlight rising risks to the labor market. It will be difficult for Powell to set a timeline for a rate cut as the fight against inflation is far from over and the US economy is growing at a strong pace.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
Inflation returns and sends XAU soaringThe strength of the US labor market appears to be fading as a restrictive policy framework remains in place. The unemployment rate in June, at 4.1%, was recorded as the highest in more than two years. In addition, JOLTS Open Jobs data increased almost steadily in June. The number of job vacancies in June reached 8.18 million compared to expectations of 8.03 million but lower than the previously released figure of 8.23 ​​million, indicating that demand for jobs has been waning. On the other hand, bullion also benefited from safe-haven buying after an airstrike killed a Hamas leader in Tehran, Iran. Israel is believed to have carried out the assassination. The news angered Iran and its proxy groups across the Middle East.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
XAU is expected to fall sharply in the coming time.The price increase in the international market is mainly due to increased bottom-fishing demand. In the previous sessions, the precious metal fell quite deeply, at times down to 2,370 USD/ounce, but still held firm above the important support level of 2,350 USD/ounce - the 50-day average price. Demand for gold is overwhelming compared to the pressure from a rising USD. Gold is forecast to hardly decrease deeply and is ready to increase in price following the interest rate cut signals of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and purchasing power from major players in the world. If previously, central banks of many countries, including China, bought heavily, causing gold to skyrocket in late 2023 and early 2024, recently, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have stepped up their purchases of this commodity. The buying activities of large funds such as SPDR Gold Trust have made many people believe in a new rally in gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
Trading strategy when gold fallsThe recovery in the US dollar has put pressure on the yellow metal. Accordingly, the US Dollar Index rose about 0.3% to a more than two-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. According to Marex analyst Edward Meir, in addition to the recovery in the greenback, data from China showing that gold consumption in the world's largest gold consumer has decreased also affected the direction of gold. The latest report shows that gold consumption in China fell 5.6% in the first half of 2024 as demand for gold jewelry fell 26.7% amid high prices. However, demand for gold bars and coins has skyrocketed. Although gold was pressured by the greenback, experts said the decline of this precious metal was "slowed" by concerns about increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after a missile attack in the Golan Heights.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster
XAU Recovers After 2 Weeks as USD WeakensXAU prices saw a sharp sell-off following the release of positive US macroeconomic data, plunging to a more than two-week low on Thursday. The preliminary estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the US economy growing at a faster-than-expected pace and inflation falling in the second quarter of 2024. This suggests that the US economy is still holding up well and has created some stability in financial markets, thereby putting pressure on the precious metal - a traditional safe-haven asset. The bullish sentiment continued to keep gold prices on the defensive in the Asian session on Friday, although expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to start its rate-cutting cycle helped limit losses. Traders also turned cautious and awaited the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index later Friday. This key inflation data will play a key role in determining the Fed's policy path.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
Gold prices decreased rapidly due to the impact of many newsThe fluctuations after the discharge of the initial PMI document had been now no longer too significant. Besides, earlier than the outlet of the 5-yr US authorities bond auction, gold expenses accelerated barely as yields decreased. But quickly after, the 10-yr authorities bond yield accelerated 2 bps to 4,274%, placing strain on gold expenses. Although the USD weakened barely, the effect become insignificant. CME`s FedWatch device suggests a 100% chance of a 25 bps price reduce in September; even as marketplace forecasts display that the Fed may also reduce hobby quotes via way of means of a complete of fifty three bps in 2024. Not to mention, India's reduce in import taxes on valuable metals additionally boosts gold call for. However, those high quality elements are nevertheless now no longer sufficient to face up to promoting strain. US Q2 GDP and center PCE facts could be launched these days and tomorrow, it's miles anticipated that the gold marketplace will stay volatile. Looking longer term, BMO Global Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Sadiq Adatia stated that elements consist of continual issues approximately the threat of recession, call for from significant banks and developing hobby from National funding budget can push gold expenses to new document levels.
TVC:GOLD
by TrategySherpa
XAU the world plummeted without stoppingXAU the world plummeted without stopping Gold prices continued to fall without stopping, reaching a low of 2,370 USD/ounce at the beginning of the Asian session on Thursday morning. Thereby, world gold recorded a decrease of nearly 5% from the peak of 2,483 USD, or about 113 USD/ounce in just 7 trading sessions. Last night, the fluctuations after the release of the preliminary PMI report were not too significant. Besides, before the opening of the 5-year US government bond auction, gold prices increased slightly as yields decreased. But soon after, the 10-year government bond yield increased 2 bps to 4,274%, putting pressure on gold prices. Although the USD weakened slightly, the impact was insignificant. CME's FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September; while market forecasts suggest the Fed could cut interest rates by a total of 53 bps in 2024
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
XAU rebounded after the FED pivoted its policyGold had a strong sell-off after current US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race for the White House. The pressure to sell gold increased after this commodity increased previously and investors took advantage of taking profits in the context that they wanted to listen to more impact assessments of the rapid changes in world politics. The decline of many stock markets also caused gold to be sold to compensate for stock purchase contracts. However, bottom-fishing demand quickly increased again for gold. Mr. Biden's abandonment of his bid to run for re-election as US President has paved the way for another Democrat, most likely Ms. Kamala Harris.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
XAU is at a low price compared to last weekThe XAU price fell to its lowest in more than a week today as traders await more US economic data and comments from US Federal Reserve (FED) officials this week for further action. more clarity on the timeline for interest rate cuts. Markets see a more than 90% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, down from a previous forecast of 98%. Senior market analyst at FxPro Alex Kuptsikevich said that the simultaneous decline in the gold and US stock markets recently is not a good omen for this precious metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
The gold market increased slightly compared to the first day of While the current rally became pushed with the aid of using bodily factors, strategists say cash flows will gas the following rally. They notice that this modification is beginning to appear, predicting that gold fees may want to attain 2,650 USD/ounce with the aid of using the fourth region of 2024. | The XAU fee fell to its lowest in extra than every week nowadays as investors watch for extra US financial records and feedback from US Federal Reserve (FED) officers this week for similarly action. extra readability at the timeline for hobby fee cuts. Markets see a extra than 90% danger the Fed will reduce hobby fees in September, down from a preceding forecast of 98%. Senior marketplace analyst at FxPro Alex Kuptsikevich stated that the simultaneous decline withinside the gold and US inventory markets lately isn't always a very good omen for this valuable metal.
TVC:GOLD
by TrategySherpa
World gold recovered slightly and is fluctuating around 2406World gold prices tend to recover after plunging in the last trading session of last week. While investors are waiting for important reports at the end of the week, experts predict that the gold market may stabilize at the beginning of the week and will witness fluctuations after the inflation report. However, many opinions believe that the June core personal consumption expenditure index report may not create large price fluctuations. Although gold is likely to decline in the short term, some experts say that will not affect the medium-term prospects of this precious metal. Accordingly, optimistic opinions are that the decline will not last long and gold is still strongly supported by interest rate expectations, geopolitical situation along with uncertainties surrounding the elections.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster