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XAUUSD: Break or Bounce at ResistanceGold has reached a critical technical zone near a long-term descending trendline and horizontal resistance around $3360–3380. Price action suggests a make-or-break moment is unfolding. Key Technical Structure: Descending Trendline Resistance from the April high capped the rally. Current move has formed a rising wedge — typically bearish if broken. Price is testing resistance confluence — a rejection could send Gold lower. Scenarios to Watch: 🔹 Bullish Breakout: Clean breakout and close above $3380 confirms trendline invalidation. Upside projection points to $3500 — previous high and psychological level. 🔹 Bearish Rejection: Failure to break the trendline + wedge breakdown can drag price to: $3280 (38.2% Fib) $3160–3200 zone (61.8% Fib + demand area) Macro Factors to Watch: Tariff escalation between US–EU could trigger risk-off → bullish for Gold. FOMC policy pause, weak job data, or inflation rebound also support upside. Stronger USD or yield spike may trigger wedge breakdown → bearish. Conclusion: XAUUSD is at a key inflection point. Wait for confirmation: either a clean breakout or a clear reversal rejection. Trade the resolution, not the anticipation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ultreosforex
4
DXY Short-Term Reversal Zone in SightUS Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching a strong support zone at 98.90–98.00, which has historically acted as a base for bullish reversals. The price is now testing the lower bound of this zone after a steady downtrend from the 101.94 high. Key Technical Structure: Support Zone: 98.90–98.00 (tested 3+ times) Double Bottom Potential forming if bulls hold the zone Upside Targets: 101.94: Key horizontal resistance 103.50: Swing high from early April Scenarios to Watch: 🔹 Bullish Rebound: Price bounces off 98.90–98.00 support Confirmation: Break and close above 100.50 near-term resistance Could fuel move back to 101.94, possibly 103.50 🔹 Bearish Breakdown: Daily close below 98.00 would invalidate bullish setup Opens downside to 97.00 and even 95.50 Macro Drivers to Watch: FOMC speakers and interest rate guidance US jobless claims or inflation surprise Risk-off sentiment (benefits USD) vs. continued global risk appetite Conclusion: DXY is trading at a make-or-break support zone. Watch for clear bullish reaction or bearish breakdown before committing. The setup favors a bounce unless 98.00 fails.
TVC:DXYLong
by ultreosforex
1
GBPCHF Breaks Rising Wedge – Reversal Targets 1.0940 and 1.0815GBPCHF has broken down from a rising wedge formation on the 4H chart, signaling a shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. The pattern break comes near the 50% retracement level, with price now trading below ascending trendline support. With fundamental headwinds weighing on the British pound and safe-haven demand supporting the Swiss franc, the setup favors a short bias targeting the 1.0940 and 1.0815 zones. 🔍 Technical Analysis Pattern: Rising wedge → broken to the downside Breakout Confirmation: Price has closed below the wedge support (trendline) Key Support Levels: 1.0940 → 38.2% fib + previous structure support 1.0815 → 23.6% fib retracement + horizontal support zone 1.0608 → Full wedge base (longer-term target) Resistance / Invalidation: 1.1150 – a close back above this level invalidates the breakdown Candle Behavior: Bearish structure forming with lower highs Clean engulfing candle closed below wedge 📉 Bias: Bearish (confirmed technical reversal) 🌍 Fundamental Context 🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP) UK CPI expected to rise (3.3% forecast), which may limit BoE cuts, but not bullish enough to support GBP Political uncertainty resurfaces (Labour slipping in polls) BoE speakers are split; no clear support from policy 🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF) Safe-haven flows rising on: Global growth slowdown Tensions between U.S.–Iran Downgrade of U.S. debt → risk aversion favors CHF SNB remains cautious, but CHF gains defensive strength in risk-off conditions 🎯 Trade Setup Bias: Sell Entry Zone: 1.1080–1.1100 (breakout confirmation) Targets: TP1: 1.0940 TP2: 1.0815 TP3: 1.0608 (extension target) Stop Loss: Above 1.1150 ⚠️ Risk Factors CPI surprise tomorrow could cause GBP spikes — be cautious around the release If equities rally hard or CHF weakens globally, price could retest the wedge structure before falling BoE hawkish surprise could challenge short-term bearish bias 🧭 Conclusion GBP/CHF has broken out of a rising wedge — a classic bearish reversal signal. The technical break aligns with macro weakness in GBP and CHF strength in a risk-off environment. Short trades remain valid below 1.1150, targeting a drop to 1.0940 and 1.0815 in the coming sessions.
Short
by ultreosforex
7
Market next move 1. Bearish Rejection from Resistance Disruption: The price has struggled to break above the 3,240–3,250 area multiple times. This could indicate strong resistance. Implication: If the price fails again, we may see a rejection and a move down towards the 3,180–3,160 support range instead of a bullish breakout. --- 2. Volume Analysis Caution Disruption: The volume during recent upward moves is not significantly higher than the downswings. Implication: Weak buying volume might not support a strong breakout, suggesting a fakeout could occur. --- 3. False Breakout Possibility Disruption: A possible fake breakout above the red box might lure in buyers before a reversal. Implication: Watch for a "bull trap" where the price briefly breaks up and then reverses sharply downward. --- 4. Macro Events Ahead Disruption: The timing (around May 20) could align with macroeconomic news (e.g., Fed minutes, CPI, etc.). Implication: News can trigger volatility and negate technical expectations. --- 5. RSI or Momentum Indicators? Disruption: Without checking RSI or other momentum indicators, the analysis might lack confirmation. Implication: Overbought/oversold conditions could shift the bias unexpectedly.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
OfficialKieranTrewick | XAUUSD | Long from 25% ? The latest chart update shows that price has fully cycled from the 100% to the 25% quarter level within the bullish ascending channel. After failing to break the 2920 resistance due to a decrease in order flow, price continued its descent towards the lower boundary of the channel. Upon reaching this key support zone, order flow for buying pressure significantly increased, leading to a suitable long entry that has already hit two take profit targets, securing 60 pips. The expectation is for price to slowly ascend back into the channel, aligning with previous value areas and increasing order flow. However, with high-impact news on the horizon, market sentiment could shift, posing a potential risk to the current bullish market structure. Traders should remain cautious and prioritize risk management in case of unexpected volatility. FX:XAUUSD Follow OfficialKieranTrewick for More Ideas and Analysis Breakdowns Join My Free Groups for Extra Content
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialKieranTrewick
CHF/JPY Analysis | Potential Reversal or Continuation ? CHF/JPY Technical Analysis & Forecast 📉 Market Overview: Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen (CHF/JPY) – 4H Chart : The pair is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel, signaling a sustained bearish trend. The price action has consistently followed a lower high and lower low structure, confirming the prevailing downtrend. However, recent price movements suggest potential signs of reversal as the pair approaches a key support zone. Let’s dive into the details. 🔍 Key Technical Highlights: ✅ Descending Channel: The market has been respecting a downward sloping trendline, indicating ongoing bearish pressure. ✅ Major Support Zone: The pair has tested a crucial quarter fulfillment level, a historically strong support area. ✅ Double Bottom Formation: A potential reversal pattern is forming, hinting at a possible upward move. ✅ 50 EMA Acting as Dynamic Resistance: The price remains below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average, a key level to watch for bullish confirmation. ✅ Resistance Levels: The 169.000 (50% Fib) and 172.000 (75% Fib) levels are the next upside targets if buyers gain control. 📊 Prediction & Outlook: 🔹 Bullish Scenario: A successful break above dynamic support/resistance and the 50 EMA could trigger a bullish move toward 169.000 and potentially 172.000. 🔹 Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold the current support could see the pair continue its downward trajectory within the channel, with potential targets around 163.250. 🔹 Key Confirmation Point: A breakout above the support & resistance zone (~168.000) would strengthen bullish momentum, while a rejection could lead to further downside. 📢 Trader’s Takeaway: 🔹 Short-term traders should watch for confirmation of the double bottom breakout. 🔹 Swing traders may look for opportunities within the current channel structure, capitalizing on both reversals and trend continuations. 🔹 Risk management is crucial; a break below 166.000 may invalidate bullish setups. Stay tuned for more updates and trade wisely! 🚀 Follow me for real-time insights and forecasts. OANDA:CHFJPY FX:CHFJPY VANTAGE:CHFJPY
Short
by OfficialKieranTrewick
XAUUSD Analysis | Charting New Territory ATH GOLD is charting new all time high territory once again this year after breaking through into the 2700s and still on a sharp ascent structure giving a high probability that we could now see 2800 by end of year. There is still a strong bullish momentum as stated but falling just short of the next quarter resistance of 2750 we could see a correction down to meet several support levels including the 50 ema which aligns with not only horizontal and dynamic support but also the middle bol band and quarter phase section of 25%. Any long term sells are pretty much foolish at this level with the increasing likeliness that the ascent will continue I am looking to enter buys from these key support levels or potentially short term sell entries leading into these pivot zones for longs. Ideally we will as per previous market structure see price enter a consolidation zone post a short correction to which we can scalp and gain some lower long entries before seeing price once again break through to the topside and complete the current quarter phase of 75% - 100% which would be around 2750-2800.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialKieranTrewick