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EUR/USD:Pullback Support Area For a New LONG Setup The ECB's leadership in the "tightening race" allows us to expect a continued EUR/USD rally within the upward channel in the near future. The minimum target is the March high of 1.091, followed by a retest to the area of 1.10, where there was strong resistance to the sharp improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop in the United States at the beginning of February: Risks to the Core PCE for March, the Fed's key measure of inflation, have shifted downward; risky assets have responded with additional gains, while the dollar has reached new lows. A weak Core PCE will make it much easier for EUR/USD buyers to increase their position. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March was 104.2 points higher than expected (forecast 101 points). The monthly change in US real estate prices was 0.2%, with the Case-Shiller price index increasing 2.5% year on year. Overall, the data point to a modest increase in optimism in the US stock market in the near term.
Long
by FOREXN1
21
GOLD Prices Decline on First Citizens Bank's Acquisition of SVB The pace of the pullback in gold prices has intensified following the announcement that First Citizens Bank has acquired Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The rise in US Treasury yields and reduced demand from India are adding further downward pressure on the price of gold. Despite the current uptrend, a double TOP formation is posing a threat with the neckline at a key level of $1,934. As of writing, XAU/USD is trading in the $1,950s, down by over 1.0% for the day. The ease in bank stress has lessened gold's safe-haven appeal, while rising US Treasury bond yields and a robust US dollar, along with reports of declining demand from India, have further exacerbated the decline in prices. The announcement of the acquisition of defunct lender Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens Bancshares Inc, the holding company of North-Carolina-based First Citizens Bank, has brought temporary relief to the markets on March 27, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. According to a press release from the FDIC, First Citizens has acquired all of SVB's $119B deposits and loans and has purchased $72B of its assets at a $16.5B discount. Although the deal has limited the damage caused by SVB's failure, it has not eliminated it entirely, with the bank's collapse estimated to have cost the FDIC $20B.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
8
EUR/USD Pair Expected to Rise Towards 1.10, Says ING EconomistsAccording to the latest updates, the Euro (EUR) has traded above the 1.08 mark against the US Dollar (USD). ING, a prominent economic institution, predicts that the EUR/USD pair will steadily rise and reach the 1.10 level. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) governing council, reinforced her hawkish stance during a recent statement. Schnabel emphasized the inclusion of a reference in the March ECB statement, highlighting the possibility of hiking. This assertion likely contributed to a further increase in the market rate expectations in the eurozone. The positive outlook for the EUR/USD pair is expected to continue due to the ECB's hawkish narrative and a stable European banking situation. ING predicts that this bullish momentum will likely help the pair to reach the 1.10 mark in the near future, although some bumps along the way are highly probable.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
NZD/USD Rebounds on Positive Banking News and Fed UpdatesThe NZD/USD pair has shown signs of recovery after hitting a low of 0.6181, which was the result of the ongoing banking crisis causing nervousness in the market. The New Zealand dollar has struggled recently due to the impact of bank stress on risk appetites. However, positive news surrounding the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) deal and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) confirmation that First Citizens bank would take over all deposits and loans of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank from the FDIC has provided some much-needed support for the risk-sensitive currency. According to Bloomberg, US regulators are considering expanding an emergency lending facility for banks, which would give First Republic Bank (FRC) more time to strengthen its balance sheet. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) voter Kashkari has taken a dovish stance and stressed the uncertainty of the banking crisis's impact on the economy, with the Fed closely monitoring the situation. This contrasts with the hawkish views of non-voting colleagues Barkin and Bullard, who are focused on addressing inflation over financial stability. In recent testimony, Fed Vice-Chair of Supervision Barr reassured investors that the banking system remains robust, with the Fed committed to ensuring deposit safety. He also discussed planned regulations to enhance the financial system's resiliency, including long-term debt requirements for large banks, improved stress testing, and exploration of liquidity rules and other reforms. As we look ahead, the market's focus is now on the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data release, which will likely shape US Dollar dynamics. This data is set to be released later this week and will undoubtedly have an impact on the currency markets.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD: Economists Predict Euro to Rise Against by End of YearAccording to economists at Commerzbank, the Euro (EUR) is expected to gain some value against the US Dollar (USD) towards the end of the year as the US moves closer to rate cuts. The Federal Reserve is expected to commence cutting rates again in early 2024, which is likely to reduce the demand for the USD's 'safe haven' property as market concerns subside. As a result, the EUR/USD exchange rate is predicted to rise. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve are both expected to end their rate hike cycles in the summer. However, while the ECB rates are expected to remain stable, the Fed is expected to begin cutting rates again in early 2024. This convergence of monetary policies is seen as a significant advantage for the Euro. The economists at Commerzbank have set a target of 1.12 for the EUR/USD exchange rate. As market concerns ease, the demand for the USD's safe haven property is expected to decrease, which would lead to a rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate.
Long
by FOREXN1
23
GOLD Prices Steady Amid Bank Takeover and Recession ConcernsThe price of gold is experiencing a steady pullback in the wake of First Citizens Bank's takeover of SVB. However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's comments about a possible recession caused by a banking crisis have tempered the relief felt by investors. While the price of gold is correcting, it is still too minor to be considered a reversal. As of the start of the week, XAU/USD is trading in the lower $1,970s, down from its high of just over $2,000 on Friday. Although the easing of bank stress may have lessened gold's safe-haven appeal, fears of wider contagion are still keeping the precious metal's price above a certain level. The market was temporarily soothed on March 27 when First Citizens Bancshares Inc, the holding company of North-Carolina based First Citizens Bank, purchased defunct lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The takeover has led to a lessening of demand for safe-haven gold. According to a press release from the FDIC, First Citizens has taken over all of SVB's $119B deposits and loans, and has purchased $72B of its assets at a $16.5B discount. The deal limits the damage caused by SVB's failure, but it does not eliminate it. The bank's collapse is still believed to have cost the FDIC $20B. Despite the positive news about the takeover, policymakers remain concerned about the potential for more banking contagion to trigger a recession. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview on the CBS show Face the Nation that "Recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the US closer to recession. It definitely brings us closer." He added that they were monitoring the situation very closely. Despite the concerns, the price of gold remains in an uptrend on a short to medium-term basis, making higher highs and lows on the daily chart. This supports bullish bets, as the old adage goes, "The trend is your friend until the bend at the end."
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
9
GBP/USD rises on US recession fears and UK energy relief hopesGBP/USD has continued its two-week upward trend and hit an intraday high near 1.2250 at the beginning of the week. The rise is attributed to fears of a US recession and positive news from the UK, including hopes for more economic measures to support energy companies from PM Sunak. However, the Cable pair buyers are being tested by cautious sentiment ahead of the key data and events this week. The Bank of England's (BoE) recent 0.50% rate hike, combined with mostly positive economics and downbeat US Treasury bond yields, have also contributed to the rise in GBP/USD. However, Friday's risk-negative headlines challenged the GBP/USD buyers before the latest surge, which was supported by weekend news. Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed concerns about stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch, which he believes could bring the US closer to recession. This news, along with the Financial Times' suggestion of more relief for UK energy companies, has favored GBP/USD prices. Looking ahead, BoE Governor Bailey's speech may interest intraday traders of the GBP/USD pair. However, the major attention will be given to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. In the meantime, geopolitical concerns such as Russia's nuclear usage in its war with Ukraine and the ongoing Brexit negotiations continue to influence the GBP/USD bulls.
Long
by FOREXN1
9
EUR/USD: Pullback 50% 61.8% FIBO For a New LONG SetupAccording to ING economists, the EUR/USD pair has retreated after surpassing the 1.0900 mark. Nevertheless, they anticipate that the pair will reach the level of 1.1000 in the near future. Today, market focus will be on the PMI readings in the Eurozone. ING predicts that the survey will stabilize around the figures from February. Unless there are any major surprises, the PMI releases are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market as the macro fundamentals are currently playing a secondary role to the financial market's stress. ING suggests that the Dollar bias will remain bearish, and European currencies will be supported by hawkish central banks and a less volatile banking environment, which could lead to the testing of the 1.1000 level in the near future.
Long
by FOREXN1
19
USD/JPY REMAINS HEAVILY BEARISH,LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 10For the third consecutive day, USD/JPY is experiencing heavy selling pressure, pushing the pair lower. The anticipation of a hawkish shift by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is increasing demand for the Japanese Yen, thus contributing to the downward trend. However, some follow-through USD buying may offer some support to the pair, helping to limit further losses. During the first half of the European session on Friday, the USD/JPY pair extended its rejection slide from the 133.00 level earlier this week, and the spot prices dropped to their lowest point since February 10th. The bears are now looking to push the pair further below the psychological level of 130.00. Japan's consumer prices rose at their fastest pace since 1982 in February, and the Japanese Yen strengthened across the board in response to the domestic data. Specifically, Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices but includes alcoholic beverages, accelerated to 3.5% YoY, marking the fastest increase in 41 years. This has increased the likelihood of the Bank of Japan adjusting its bond yield control policy in the near future, which would benefit the domestic currency and continue to push the USD/JPY pair lower. Bearish traders have also taken cues from a further decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decrease in yields is led by the Federal Reserve signaling that it may soon pause its rate-hiking cycle due to the recent banking sector turmoil. As a result, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond and the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note are hovering near a six-month low reached earlier this week. This further narrows the US-Japan rate differential, which is another factor driving flows towards the JPY and contributing to the heavily offered tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
SILVER: BULLS RETAIN CONTROL NEAR MULTI-WEEK HIGH, ABOVE $23.00Silver is currently consolidating after a strong move upwards on the previous day, reaching its highest level since February. The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports the potential for additional gains. Even if there is a pullback below the 61.8% Fibo, it is likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited. The white metal is hovering above the $23.00 level, consolidating recent strong gains that began from the year-to-date low earlier this month, and is poised to continue the upward trajectory witnessed over the past two weeks or so. This sustained upward move is supported by this week's break and acceptance above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from a multi-month peak, adding credibility to the positive outlook. Technical indicators on the daily chart remain in the positive territory, and the absence of overbought signals indicates that the potential for an extension of the upward trend remains intact, which favors bullish traders. Therefore, a subsequent move beyond the $24.00 level could be in the cards, with a retest of the multi-month peak around the $24.65 region seen in February being a distinct possibility. Additional gains could occur if there is follow-through buying, which would enable XAG/USD to reclaim the psychologically significant $25.00 mark for the first time since April 2022. The next relevant hurdle is situated in the $25.30-$25.35 zone. However, dips below the $23.00 level may find some support near the 61.8% Fibo resistance breakpoint, located around the $21.80 region. Any subsequent decline is likely to attract new buyers near the $22.50 horizontal zone, which should limit the downside for XAG/USD near the $22.20 area or the 50% Fibo level. This is followed by the $22.00 mark, which if broken decisively, could set the stage for more significant losses.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by FOREXN1
6
GBP/USD: KEY 1.2420 AND 1.2500 LEVELS CAN BE TESTED QUITE SOONAccording to analysts at ING, GBP/USD is currently fluctuating below the 1.2300 level after the Bank of England's recent decision to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points. The economists predict that the pair will soon test the key resistance levels of 1.2420 and 1.2500. Despite the rate hike, the Bank of England did not provide much guidance in their statement, and it seems that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has left all options open. It was anticipated that the BoE would not offer any substantial guidance, leading to a brief impact on the Pound. As predicted, this has been the case. It is likely that the BoE will take a pause in May, despite the recent rise in inflation. The analysts believe that with around 30 basis points of tightening in the price, there is potential for a repricing lower to favor a slightly higher EUR/GBP. The BoE's decision does not seem to have much of an impact on Cable, and with the view for Dollar downside risks, the key resistance levels of 1.2420 and 1.2500 are expected to be tested in the near future.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD FUTURES: DOOR OPEN TO EXTRA GAINAccording to the latest updates from CME Group on gold futures markets, there has been a notable surge in open interest, which rose by approximately 11.2K contracts on Thursday, reversing the two consecutive daily declines. Furthermore, volume has also experienced a similar increase, going up by around 33.4K contracts after a streak of three consecutive daily drops. To sustain further upward momentum, it is imperative that gold prices close above the critical $2000 mark per ounce troy. Fortunately, on Thursday, gold prices continued their rebound and once again surpassed this key level, albeit closing below it. This positive movement can be attributed to the surge in both open interest and volume, indicating a positive outlook for the yellow metal in the near future.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CAD Remains Steady Amid Mixed Fundamental BackdropThe USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading in a tight range, as it is influenced by a combination of factors. The Loonie, as it is also known, is being supported by a recent uptick in oil prices, which has increased due to fears of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. This has acted as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair, which is also being weighed down by subdued US dollar demand. Additionally, traders are eagerly awaiting important macroeconomic data from both the US and Canada, which could provide a fresh impetus for the pair. Despite a goodish rebound from the 1.3630 area, or over a two-week low, the USD/CAD pair remains below the 1.3700 mark due to a combination of factors that are keeping any meaningful upside in check. It is important to note that the recent collapse of two mid-size US banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, has contributed to the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on the economy. This has resulted in the Fed lowering its median forecast for real GDP growth projections for 2023 and 2024, which is keeping the US Treasury bond yields and the USD subdued. While there is generally a positive tone around the equity markets, growing concerns about slowing economic growth denting fuel demand are capping the upside for oil prices. This, combined with expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will refrain from raising interest rates any further, is providing some support to the USD/CAD pair. From a technical perspective, the lack of a clear near-term trajectory is reflected in the two-way price movements that have been witnessed since the beginning of the week. Given the mixed fundamental backdrop, traders are advised to exercise caution before placing aggressive directional bets around the USD/CAD pair. Investors are also showing some reluctance ahead of important macro data releases from both the US and Canada, which are due later during the early North American session. Friday's economic docket features the release of Durable Goods Orders and the flash PMI prints in the US, which will be closely watched by traders. Meanwhile, Canadian monthly Retail Sales figures will provide further cues. Finally, oil price dynamics will play a crucial role in determining short-term opportunities on the last day of the week. In conclusion, the USD/CAD currency pair remains steady above 1.3700 but lacks bullish conviction amid an uptick in oil prices. Traders are advised to stay cautious and follow the macroeconomic data releases and oil price dynamics to identify any short-term opportunities.
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/JPY Falls on Weak Treasury Yields - SHORTGBP/JPY is experiencing a decline from a one-week high and a fading corrective bounce off 160.80. The drop to 161.00 is in response to the decline of Treasury bond yields and the general weakness of the British Pound ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy announcement on "Super Thursday." Following the US Federal Reserve's and US Treasury's announcements, yields tumbled. The pessimistic outlook for big manufacturing firms in Japan according to the Reuters Survey also adds to the pressure on the GBP/JPY. Despite the strong UK inflation data and the Brexit bill's passage through the House of Commons, the GBP/JPY buyers have not seen much success due to ongoing concerns about Brexit and banking fears. The recent announcements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen triggered a brief corrective bounce in the bond market, but it was short-lived. Fed officials have indicated that they do not anticipate rate cuts for this year, and Yellen ruled out the consideration of "blanket insurance" for bank deposits. The US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields are currently pressured at 3.45% and 3.96%, respectively, while the S&P 500 Futures show mild gains despite Wall Street's downbeat performance. Although the GBP/JPY pair's recent losses ignore the negative results of the monthly Reuters survey, they are still significant. The survey shows that big Japanese manufacturers remain pessimistic about business conditions for the third consecutive month in March. Please support me with LIKE and FOLLOW
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD Continues to Climb, Testing 7-Week HighsOn Thursday, EUR/USD remained strongly bullish and showed no signs of slowing down. The pair managed to hit fresh 7-week highs, testing the 1.0930 level. This consistent upward trend can be attributed to the persistent selling pressure on the US dollar, which resulted in the USD Index (DXY) hitting multi-week lows, falling below the 102.00 level earlier in the day. The dovish hike by the Fed during its Wednesday meeting, coupled with Chair Powell's downbeat message at his press conference following the rate hike, also contributed to the pair's upward momentum. The European Commission will release the flash EMU Consumer Confidence for the current month, which will likely have an impact on the euro's performance. In the US, weekly Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and New Home Sales are expected to be released. The EUR/USD pair's optimistic outlook remains intact, and it looks to consolidate its recent strong rebound past the 1.0900 resistance level. The pair's immediate target is the 2023 high near 1.1030. The pair's future price action will be largely dependent on the US dollar's movement and the European Central Bank's potential next moves, considering the current context dominated by elevated inflation, although amidst dwindling recession risks for the time being.
Long
by FOREXN1
22
BITCOIN:Crypto Market Dips After Fed's Interest Rate HikeBitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline on Thursday after a selloff on Wednesday, following the Federal Reserve's latest interest-rate hike. Despite the setback, cryptocurrency traders predict that the digital asset rally will continue, albeit with a temporary pause. Over the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 1.5%, reaching $27,700, dropping from the high point of $28,500 on Wednesday. However, the digital asset rebounded from the trough below $27,000 immediately after the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. Wednesday's peak marked the highest level for Bitcoin since the crypto bear market accelerated last June. Prices for the largest digital asset are still up by more than two-thirds in 2023 in a rally that has spurred calls for a new bull market. Sam Yilmaz, co-founder of venture fund Bloccelerate, said, "Bitcoin's rally ahead of the Fed set us up for disappointment, and sure enough, we saw Bitcoin retreat from just shy of $29,000 after Powell's press conference. A cooling off period is overdue and allows Bitcoin and crypto to settle. I still believe Bitcoin could go to $35,000 in a matter of weeks because, put simply, price action breeds price action in crypto." Cryptocurrencies fell in line with the stock market after the Fed hiked rates. This return to Bitcoin's correlation with equities comes after weeks of outperformance. While the rate hike of 25 basis points was expected, digital assets dropped in step with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 as investors worried about how tightening financial conditions would continue to pressure the banking system.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOREXN1
9
GOLD:Prices Rise as FED Reserve Signals Less Future Rate Hikes Gold prices surged after the March 22 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with the precious metal reaching a peak of $1,978. This was mainly due to the US Federal Reserve's indication that it would probably not raise rates as much as previously expected in the future, as tighter credit conditions caused by banking stress could bring down inflation. This news was viewed as bullish for gold as lower interest rates are favorable for the metal, which does not provide a return to holders, unlike cash or cash equivalents. Although the Fed increased the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter of a percent to a target range of 4.75%-5.00%, in line with market expectations, this was already priced in by the markets. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a lower-than-previous future rate hike trajectory in the dot plot, which further drove up the price of gold. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, also suggested that the Fed may not need to raise rates as much as expected, given the credit crunch caused by the banking crisis. The US Dollar weakened in response to Powell's statements since lower interest rates tend to have a negative impact on the currency. As gold is priced in dollars on international markets, a weaker dollar buys less gold, which resulted in a surge in the price of the precious metal. Looking at the technical analysis of gold prices, it has recovered and risen in line with the dominant short-term uptrend. A continuation higher is probable, with a break above the $1,984 highs of the previous bar signaling an extension higher. The just-broken trendline is likely to present an initial target and resistance at $1,991, and the gold price will probably pullback at that level. However, an eventual rally all the way to the yearly highs at $2,009 is quite possible. In conclusion, gold prices rose due to the Fed's dovish hike, which suggested that tighter credit conditions due to banking stress might do the job of bringing down inflation on its behalf. This caused gold prices to surge, as expectations of lower interest rates are seen as bullish for the metal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
2
USD/CAD falls as US Dollar weakens and oil prices riseDuring early trading on Thursday, the USD/CAD pair saw a decline, hitting its intraday low near 1.3700. This came after a two-day absence, as the US Dollar weakened and oil prices increased. The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw its sixth consecutive day of decline, with bears pushing the index towards the 102.30 mark. This decline occurred despite the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 0.25% rate hike, as dovish concerns about the US central bank's next move and fears regarding the US banking sector persisted. While the Fed's rate hike matched market expectations, its statement regarding "some additional policy firming may be appropriate" instead of "ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate" pushed back policy hawks. The statements made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen were also important. Powell indicated that there would be no rate cuts for this year, providing breathing space for greenback bears. Yellen, on the other hand, ruled out considering "blanket insurance" for bank deposits. Bloomberg also reported that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation would delay the bid deadline for a Silicon Valley private bank. Despite a surprise build in weekly inventories, WTI crude oil continued its upward trend, rising for the fourth consecutive day and ignoring the downbeat EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report. This was driven by optimism surrounding China and hopes for increased energy demand. Looking ahead, second-tier US and Canadian statistics may entertain traders ahead of Friday's key data, which includes Canadian Retail Sales and US Durable Goods Orders for January and February.
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD:FOMC Announcement and European Market DevelopmentsThere are mixed signals regarding the EUR today. On one hand, the FOMC announcement could trigger a recovery in the USD, which would likely have a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, there are positive developments in the European market, specifically in terms of efforts to contain adverse side-effects of the UBS-CS deal, which could boost European sentiment. However, there is also uncertainty around the baseline assessments of inflation and growth, given recent financial market tensions. Regarding the ECB, President Lagarde expressed concern about the ongoing war in Europe and the high inflation rate, and the ECB has raised interest rates by 50 basis points to ensure the 2% inflation target is met. While growth is predicted to be at 1%, underlying price pressures remain strong, and the bank will continue to monitor market tensions closely and be data-dependent in its policy rate decisions. The next meeting is scheduled for 4 May 2023. Overall, the EUR may be influenced by a combination of factors, including the FOMC announcement, developments in the European market, and ongoing inflation and growth concerns.
by FOREXN1
9
GOLD Could Rally Toward $2,000 on Fed's Dovish LanguageThe price of gold is currently below $1,950 and may see a bullish trend as XAU/USD bulls may make one last attempt to rise before the Federal Reserve meets. Mehta suggests that for any recovery to occur, gold would need to be accepted above the psychological level of $1,950 and reach the previous resistance level of $1,960. If the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish outlook, it could cause gold buyers to push the price back to $2,000 and potentially even higher. However, if the previous day's low of $1,935 is breached, selling interest may be reinforced, leading to a potential drop towards the $1,900 level. Should Fed Chairman Jerome Powell adopt a hawkish stance, gold's bullish commitments may be challenged, and the price could fall to the March 17 low of $1,918 before potentially dropping further to the $1,900 round level. "The anticipation of a 25bps increase in the Federal Funds Rate by the Fed will likely hurt the price of gold . Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, and when interest rates rise, it becomes less attractive to investors seeking higher yields."
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
7
USD/JPY Awaits FOMC Decision with Subdued Trading.The USD/JPY pair is experiencing a lack of clear direction on Wednesday and is trading within a narrow range. The subdued performance of the US dollar is holding back the pair, while a positive risk sentiment is providing some support. Traders seem hesitant and are waiting for the highly-anticipated FOMC decision. The USD/JPY pair is struggling to build on the gains of over 150 pips from the previous day and is trading below the weekly high reached earlier in the day, hovering around the 132.55-132.60 area. Investors are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled to be announced later during the US session. The Fed is expected to deliver a smaller 25 bps rate hike, and the focus will be on the accompanying monetary policy statement, updated economic projections, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference remarks. Investors will be looking for fresh cues on the future rate-hike path, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term US dollar price movements and providing a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair. The US dollar is currently trading near its lowest level since February 14, which is acting as a headwind for the major. However, the stable performance of equity markets is undermining the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY), which is providing some support to the pair. The Fed recently unveiled an enhanced seven-day dollar swap to add liquidity into the monetary system, while the news that UBS will rescue Credit Suisse in a $3.24 billion deal has eased fears of a global banking crisis and boosted investors' confidence. These factors, along with the more dovish stance adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), are likely to continue supporting the USD/JPY pair, at least in the short term.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USOIL: WTI on track to record second weekly loss.WTI is set to end its second week in negative territory and trades close to levels seen earlier this month. The decline in crude prices can be attributed to Russia's recent output and export cuts announcement, as well as a decrease in demand for oil in the US, evident from the accumulation of inventory over the past week. However, renewed optimism surrounding China's reopening and upgraded forecasts for global growth by IEA and OPEC for 2023 are keeping crude prices from completely collapsing. In this report, we will explore the catalysts driving WTI's price. A report from Reuters last week revealed that Russia would reduce its crude production by 500 thousand barrels per day in March, accounting for approximately 5% of its output, in response to the West imposing a price cap on Russian oil and oil-related products. The G7, the European Union, and Australia agreed to ban the use of Western-supplied maritime insurance, finance, and brokering for seaborne Russian oil priced above $60 per barrel. In addition, Russia plans to cut oil exports to western ports by up to 25% in March and re-route exports towards the east. The International Energy Agency raised its expectations for global oil demand in 2023 to 2 million barrels per day, with the rise attributed to China's reopening and an improvement in Europe's economic outlook. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a buildup of almost 10 million barrels in crude oil inventories yesterday, exceeding expectations for a mere increase of 1.2 million. This is the second straight week of significant inventory buildups and could be one of the reasons why WTI prices dropped during yesterday's session. Later today, the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly crude inventories report is due, and it is expected to capture the attention of energy traders. Forecasts indicate that EIA's stocks would increase by 2 million barrels after last week's 16-million-barrel buildup. However, the inventory figure may end up being much higher than expected, based on yesterday's API release. The continuous buildup of EIA's inventories over the past eight weeks suggests weakened demand for crude and increases the likelihood of WTI prices declining further. Finally, the Baker Hughes oil rig count on Friday showed a decline in the number of active oil rigs in the US by 2, indicating a slowdown in demand.
TVC:USOILShort
by FOREXN1
22