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21.70-22K is vital bearish areaMorning folks, Thursday plan has worked nice. Wyoming meeting just has confirmed our long-term view and why we call to stay aside of BTC since Jan 2022. BTW, we've prepared new fundamental report where we explain why it is not the time yet to invest, set downside targets and also share forecasts of long-term performance of BTC and US Stocks... ITs free on Forexpeacearmy website, just watch for Blog part and find my Blog - Sive Morten. Now concerning the short-term. As market has no solid support, context remains bearish. Nearest downside targets are 19.2K and 17.5K. But, as daily bearish flag has been broken - for short term BTC it is vital to stay outside the flag. Otherwise stronger upside bounce is possible. That's why for short-term bearish setup we consider 21.70-22.05K resistance area as a vital, because it also coincides with the flag trendline. For position taking you could consider any other Fib levels - 20.41K and 21K K-resistance. We do not consider any long positions by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
25.2-25.5K seems interesting for new short positionMorning folks, BTC goes with our long-term fundamental view and those who read our monthly reports knows about it since December 2021 when we've warned against long-term investments in BTC. This week end we have taken in-depth view on the US stock market that shows bad perspectives and BTC as usual is becoming a storm crower, with 600 Mln+ positions were liquidated just on Friday... In short-term it seems that 25.2-25.4 resistance area might be interesting to consider another short position. Right now we do not consider any longs by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
22-22.4K bounce up to 24-24.4 Morning folks, So, longer-term perspective remains bearish by far as Fed minutes recently tells that tightening effect yet to come on the market, unemployment should start rising in II H of 2022 and Fed stands on the course of 0.5-0.75% rate change in September. In general this sounds hawkish enough. The pullback from daily resistance that we've discussed last time has started accurately. But now market is coming to 22-22.4K support and if you still hold the short position - you have to decide how to manage it. WE suggest that downside action is not over yet, and in mid term it should continue to major ~20K area support. But in short-term it could be interrupted by the pullback to form larger bearish pattern - H&S on 1H chart. It means that starting from 22-22.4K area BTC could turn to form right arm top around 24-24.4K. This will be 2nd chance for short entry. Bulls in turn, could consider scalp long trade if reversal patterns will be formed around neckline and support area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tactical bearish setup is readyMorning folks, Our long term view stands intact - we do not exclude action up to 30K or even to 36K resistance within 6-9 months due changes in fundamental background - starting QE activity from the Fed and massive US government programmes up to $1 Trln. This should flow more liquidity on the markets. This is the way how Democrats would like to create the visuality of success, prosperity before November elections... In short-term our XOP on 4H mostly is done, as well as butterfly. Thus, bears could think about position taking with initial stops above daily K-resistance of 26.35K. But this is tactical pullback by far. Do not merry the position, and better to focus on the lower border of daily channel, as the target by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Next target is 25.5-26.2KMorning guys, As we've said few weeks ago - the Fed strategy is changing and we take off the table 9K and 12K target for at least 6-9 months, when BTC could feel pretty nice. Recent CPI data also should have long lasting effect, letting Fed to act with more freedom and not as aggressively, which is inspired stocks and crypto markets. As NFP report as CPI data supports our short-term scenario with 25.5-26.2K targets. It could be finalized by butterfly on 4H chart. Once it will be completed - bears could consider short-term position taking with stops above 26.2K resistance on daily chart, while bulls just need to wait for the pullback out of the same area to consider position taking once pullback will be over.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Short-term context is bullishMorning folks, So, upside action has started accurately once the butterfly and XOP target have been completed, based on our previous update. BTC feels safe on the background of recent Fed money market activity. Last week was injected about $25 Bln, so should be no problems from this side. The only risk factor this week is CPI on Wed. As we've said recently - we do not consider the new shorts by far. On 1H chart market is going with the reverse H&S pattern. If you have missed both chances to buy - as on our previous update, as later, when H&S was formed, now the chance could come after OP target completion. Since we have major target around 25.3-26.2 area, the XOP target here, which is around 24.6K also should be completed, right? Thus, if BTC will show any pullback once OP is done - this could be the chance for long entry. It is vital that price remains above the neckline. Thus, support area around 23.3-23.5K looks OK to consider long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
22-22.4K is potential reversal areaMorning folks, As Fed has chosen money printing strategy we postone scenario with downside collapse to 9-12K area for 6-9 months. Now, additional liquidity flow should stabilize as stocks as BTC market, and even let him to rise a bit. In short-term we consider the same 21.95-22.25K support area on 4H chart as then one, where BTC potentially could turn up again and keep moving to our 25.5-26.2K target. But the shape of reversal might be different, although it has minor value to the overall scenario. Personally, I like this one - if price finally completes our XOP target here and finalizes it by butterfly. But it is no problem to buy right now and not to wait for butterfly, if you able to place stop below 21.9K area. We do not consider taking short positions by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Fundamental background has changedMorning everybody, Under negative GDP numbers and Fed trash talks, there are few who signed a shift in fundamental background. US government and Fed are defeated by inflation and turn back to QE(as well as ECB). Fed fails to keep QT pace, buying less bonds that it has promised. In fact, with spending money from US Treasury deposit - there was no tightening but easing for $250 Bln since the start of the year. Now, new J. Biden programmes on semiconductors and climate should pump additional $1Trln. All of them sooner rather than later go to the markets. As a result, in nearest 6-8 months we should see the visuality of prosperity when stocks and BTC will stop falling and US yields will stop rising. But this is temporal relief. Inflation remains and will keep going higher, to 20%. Collapse is postponed but it is not cancelled, and will happen anyway. Still, in short-term, BTC easily could re-test 28-32K area within few months. We keep our long-term 9K and 12K targets, but its reaching aso postpones. Now we do not consider taking new strategic bearish positions. In short-term it seems that 22-22.3K area and 20.3K area are interesting to consider long entry, with invalidation point below 20K. We endure daily upside channel with next upside target around 25.5K and 26-26.2K major daily resistasnce.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
GDP will help?Morning folks, So, BTC keep showing upward pullback and recent dovish Fed decision has let it to start upward action from predefined level: As we expect negative GDP numbers, in a moment it should weak the US Dollar, which in turn, should be supportive to BTC and could let it to reach next 25.5-26K resistance area. For position taking you could use most recent swing with invalidation point at 20.7K lows. But this is only if you like data release games. Otherwise, just wait for the numbers.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
At the eve of collapseMorning folks, So, miracle has not happened and BTC stucked around 23K area - first major daily resistance area. On intraday charts we do not have any bearish patterns yet and could even say that bulls have theoretical chances on upside action to 25.5-26.2K next resistance area, but... we do not believe that this will happen... and here is why. With coming big bulk of fundamental data - almost all of them should be negative to stocks and BTC. First is, Google and Microsoft reports on 27th of July supposedly will be worse than expected. 1% rate hike from the Fed also hardly bring optimism to the markets, finally, we expect negative IIQ GDP numbers on Thu, and official US step in recession stage. That's why we stay aside this week from any purchasing of BTC. Maybe we will be wrong, but we prefer to get worse entry price but with clear background, rather than gambling on big statistics. Technically, we suggest that 20K area is an edge. Downside breakout suggests bearish reversal and downside trend continuation. If you believe that BTC will go up and have different view on coming data - then you could keep an eye on two support areas where BTC stands. First one is 3/8 major support. Next one is 20.15K area, another Agreement with XOP. If BTC is really bullish and tending to 26K area - then it has to stay above these levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for bearish patternsMorning folks, As BTC stands relatively free until major events on next week, it shows tactical upside pullback where we've set two targets. First one around 23K is completed already and next one is around 25.5K. Although we think that chances that BTC will reach it are low. This week it is vitally important where market will close, because it makes direct impact on weekly chart and we could get two bearish patterns. (Watch today's BTC video on FPA site). Here the logic is simple. If you have long-position - you could keep it, just do not forget to manage stops higher. Next target is double XOP around previous lows of 25.5. There we also have daily 5/8 resistance area and daily overbought. Bears could watch for reversal patterns as upside bounce could stop at any moment. Once it will happen - you could try to go short. For example, now you could watch for 1H H&S pattern:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pump it back!Morning folks! I suppose you're very inspiring with recent BTC performance, thus, we did also suggest last time upside action. But to be honest - it is nothing to be happy about. Those who read our Fundamental reports on FPA site know what I'm talking about. The reason of the rally on stock market and BTC is Fed liquidity pump in recent two weeks. Yes, we already have explained recently this phenomenon, but in last two weeks there were big changes there, and we have to mention it here to warn you. This is artificial rally, guys. Banks need to sell their huge positions in stocks and BTC. They use Fed liquidity to initiate reversal. Once public is involved - they start selling their positions to them. In general, since April 12, Fed has taken off 75 Bln. liquidity from the market. It seems, what's the problem? But the problem with US Treasury cash deposit - it has decreased for 300 Bln + within the same time. It means that net injection was more than for 200 Bln within the same period. If you take a look on changes in recent two weeks - net injection was around $50 Bln. That's why stock and BTC markets are rising. It is no problem to trade it long on intraday charts. We're mostly speaking on long term investing - we stay aside for awhile from long position taking. As we have the whole week until Fed meeting, BTC market should get some freedom, so we do not exclude reaching of 23K nearest target and maybe 25-26K as well. Although we have big doubts on a latter one... Supposedly as 23K as 25-26K should become an areas potentially interesting for short entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
weak relief to the bullsMorning folks, As we've warned last time - BTC has to keep dropping because of fundamentals and cheating Fed action with its QT programme. Recent CPI numbers also stand not in favor of the bulls - now we could suggest 1% Fed change on next meeting. Thus, we're sceptic on any bullish performance right now. Based on technical picture we do not argue against minor bounce to 21.15-21.40 K area, but we do not see any fundamental changes and preparation for the shift of major trend. Thus, we do not consider any long positions by far. If the pullback still happens, it should be good opportunity for taking new shorts here.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Fed is cheatingMorning folks, BTC was able to show a bit higher pullback, reaching minor 3/8 Fib resistance around 21.30K, although we've expected direct downside continuation. Why we've made a mistake? Well, we've trusted to the Fed promise that it should sell 48.5 Bln assets off the balance... But they have lied. In June they have sold six times smaller amount - just around 0.7 Bln. But it is not all yet guys. Since May, the US Treasury deposit decreased for 300 Bln. Money was withdrawn and sent into economy. It means that net liquidity inflow is + 250 Bln, instead of -48.7B as it should be. So, feel the difference. Of course the bulk of these money flow to the stocks, which explains why they are stopped dropping. As BTC has 90% correlation with NSDQ, it also gets some money... But, since the start of the July Fed has sold about 20 Bln (look TW chart WSHOSHO). And markets immediately have turned down again. Thus, it is simple explanation with no changes in fundamental background. This also makes us to not change our opinion and wait for 12K area - our next target. We do not consider any long positions now. For the short entry you could use bearish flag pattern on daily chart and few Fib levels to decide where to hide the stop. Besides, this week we get new CPI numbers. As liquidity has not been contracted - numbers probably will be above expectations, which provides more pressure on BTC as well... Take care, S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
butterfly re-shapedMorning folks, As we've suggested last time - butterfly could be re-shaped if BTC shows upside AB-CD action but it makes no impact on its target and on the direction. Now we have three technical reasons to expect downside continuation on BTC market . First is the same bearish dynamic pressure on the daily chart, where MACD stands bullish but price action is not, forming pennant consolidation. Second is, the shape of price now. It is very choppy and indecision, showing no signs of reversal or thrust. Finally - our butterfly on 1H chart with the same 18K target. Thus, we do not consider any long positions by far and downside action should continue sooner rather than later...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 18KMorning folks, It is not occasionally every time we point that we do not consider any long positions on BTC market, despite that show you bullish patterns from time to time. Based on our Fundamental view - it is too early to speak on reversal as Fed has not started the tapering yet, but BTC already has lost 60% of capitalization. So, our approach is to watch for bullish patterns for better estimation of short entry areas. And take a look - the reverse H&S pattern that we've discussed last time has failed. Although BTC shows slow downside action, but we see few bearish nuances suggesting that it is temporal and sooner rather than later BTC should renew the lows. Currently it is difficult to find more or less clear pattern, but it seems that on 1H chart it might be the downside butterfly with nearest target around 18K area. The only question is whether downside action starts immediately or BTC will try to form minor AB-CD pattern. That's being said, we suggest to not buy BTC right now. If you search the way to go short - maybe this setup will be interesting to you. Take care, S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching 23-24K for short selling #2Morning guys, So, H&S that we've mentioned week ago is working slowly. It is not necessary to talk alot about it. Since bearish fundamental background has not changed and we still have long term 12K target - we consider this pattern as the chance to get better entry price on the short side. Thus, if miracle happens and it works, then 23-24.2K area seems like nice resistance for selling. Conversely - H&S failure and drop below 20K lows is not the worse scenario for the bears. It also tells that upside party is over. For the bulls - if you have taken position with this pattern, move stops to breakeven and watch the movie.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching 23-24K for short sellingMorning folks, Well, as you know - we're sceptic on any bullish setups that BTC is forming, just because we know the fundamental situation and it has no chances to normalize within few years. Thus, we keep valid our long-term targets on BTC of 12-13K and next is 8-9K. Now market has big technical problems - it has no more strong supports, it is not at oversold and it is re-testing previous vital top of 20K. If price breaks it down - bitcoin sets the new "old" trading range of 3-20K. But, this is a bit longer-term story. In short-term, market is taking relief after tough week, and all assets show the pullback, including interest rates. Thus, BTC could try to do the same, although, last time it was not able to form even minor reverse H&S on intraday chart, that we've shown you. WE do not plan to trade any bullish pattern, but we use it for special purpose. If pattern is formed - it shows us what levels to watch for short entry. Right now, if miracle happens and H&S pattern will be formed - supposedly 23.5-24K area might be interesting for new short entry. Still, it is not forbidden to make scalp long trades. We ignore it because trading time scale and because they are very unstable in current environment - but if you feel confidence, you could try.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
23.5K and then 21KMorning folks, Those who read our weekly reports on FPA site on fundamental analysis of the US economy probably are not surprised with the BTC collapse. As BTC as the stock market are doomed. We expect 2500 level on S&P on mid-term perspective with further drop below 2000 in longer-term, which means that our long term targets on BTC is 12K and 8K... Now BTC is challenging the last bullish outpost around 25-26K. This is last 5/8 all time Fib support on BTC. Lower is just a "free" space. Thus, currently we intend to go from one tactical target to another and control oversold levels. Now daily oversold level is ~21K. Potentially market could reach two extensions. First one is 1.27 and it stands at 23.5K, next one is 1.618 - 21K, that is very close to daily oversold. This is the program until Thursday, guys. If Fed rise rate for 0.75 - downside action should accelerate. Intraday upside retracement should not be too strong. At first glance, it seems that 26.2K and 27-27.4K are two levels that worthy of our attention, where we could consider short entry. Obviously we consider no new long positions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
No inspiration to buyMorning folks, Price performance looks nervous in recent few sessions. Based on what I see on intraday chart, it seems that BTC is trying to break down the 29.65-29.67 K support area that we've discussed previously. Because it doesn't look like upward reversal. On daily chart we have bearish wedge consolidation and uncompleted weekly 25.9K target. Yes, lower CPI numbers could provide short-term momentum and let BTC to complete our 34-34.4K upside target. But this is different type of trading. You could try to bet on CPI numbers, if you want. Purely technical price action makes me to stay aside from long positions by far. Here I even do not consider our long term fundamental view, that is bearish.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
$34.10K ?Morning guys, This update is better to watch together with the previous one. So, our topic is next BTC target - 34.10K. How do you think, whether it will reach it? I hope so. At least the start of the week looks inspiring. In fact, last week Fed has added to financial system around $140 Bln (check the cash account of US Treasury), and this has let market to find the local bottom. Last time, when market just has reached support area, we said - it could bounce, but we do not see yet the signs of upside reversal. Now we see that support level is valid and price is bouncing up with signs of thrust. Although theoretical chances exist that we could get deeper AB=CD shape retracement down to 28K area, but we treat this chance as not very significant. With current performance we do not consider any bearish positions by far. Second - we should not get any deep retracements, as it already is done last week, and now by our view BTC stands in extension leg to the next target. It means that the most probable levels that could be reached and you could consider for long entry are 30.40-30.50K and 30.80K. Drop back to the 28 K area will not totally destroy upside chances, but makes context weaker. Because in this case we get too deep retracement after reaching of just minor target last week. Besides, in this case market erases current rally...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten