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Forexpeacearmy

When I'm 26...Morning folks, So, it seems that our suggestion on rising of the bearish dynamic pressure on Thursday last week was correct... Right now a lot of things to discuss in relation to BTC, so if you have a time, it would be better if you watch our daily video on FPA site. Anyway, shortly speaking, we do not see any bullish signs right now and suggest that reaching of 26-28K area seems very probable within few weeks. Current stop is due reaching of daily oversold area but not because of reaching our targets. Other words speaking - it was not the drop to the targets, it was just the drop down. Once market takes some rest, it probably keep going lower. Thus, right now we do not see any good background for investing. Bears could try to catch some pullbacks to intraday resistance areas- - 37.5K seems as most suitable. Analysis of the longer-term charts looks a bit scaring, as it suggests solid upside pullback at some moment, highly likely that it happens right from 26K area, supposedly back to 40-44K area, but then we should get another downside extension. Still, this is long-term picture that could change many times an we return back to discuss of these issues when time will come.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Bearish dynamic pressureMorning guys, Well, market shows anemic action, upside butterfly on 1H chart from our last report has been cancelled. Today we have "222" Buy on 1H chart, but it doesn't matter, actually. The one thing that we would like to show is the daily picture, and the price action that we do not like and that might become the first sign of downside breakout. It calls "bearish dynamic pressure'. The red line on the chart is MACD derivative indicator. When price stands above it - MACD shows bullish trend and vice versa. So, now trend stands bullish, but price action is not, it shows downside continuation. Very often it leads to downside breakout, whether it will be short-term spike or real downside continuation. THere some other moments exist on the intraday charts, why we do not consider yet the buying of BTC, but daily pressure is the one that should be watching first.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC - no signs to buyMorning folks, So, the last analysis seems to be completed nicely. Now the big question is where we go next. The problem is we do not have this week any important speeches or statistics, so interest rates performance could be wobbling, as well as BTC market. In fact, current performance shows nothing bullish and we still do not see any reasons to buy BTC. Besides, we suggest that Dollar Index retracement should be a bit higher, which limits the upside potential of the Bitcoin market as well. For the truth's sake I would say - do nothing by far. But just to not leave you without a dessert, we show two possible scenarios that you could consider depending on your own view on the market. We suggest that market is more bearish now rather than bullish, but we could be wrong... Anyway, if you would like to buy BTC - you could consider upside butterfly with the target around the XOP and vital area at recent local lows. Coversely bears could think about downside butterfly that, as we suppose could finalize our short term target on 4H chart around 36K area within a week or two. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Wait for pullback, at leastMorning folks, We do not want to upset you, but our opinion that recent upside action is not the major reversal yet. Mostly it is not achievement of BTC market but the weakness of the US Dollar due recent CPI report. BTC shows much weaker reaction compares to the FX market, which makes it similar to the Gold and Interest rates market. As dollar stands oversold right now on daily chart and BTC stands at strong 1H chart resistance, we suggest two downside scenarios. The light one is just the pullback, at least to 42K area before BTC tries to reach 46K target. And the heavy one - BTC could even keep downside action to our next target of 36.5K. Both of them suggest downside action, although of different kind. With the view on higher time frames - we do not see reasons yet to invest in BTC. The only move above 48-49K could become the first hint that something positive is going on, as a lot of bearish moments exist right now around the different time frames.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
We keep valid 40K and 36K targetsMorning folks, It is a difficult choice today - what chart to show in the update because higher time frames are more important. Anyway, in two words - we think that downside continuation has more chances to happen this week. Taking in consideration how BTC has reacted on Fed minutes publication and that weaker NFP numbers were not able to support it, we suggest that we could get another drop, especially with coming CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales this week. Thus, we suggest that it is not time for investing in BTC, taking long-term positions. Still, 10-year yields hit 1.8% of our predefined target, forming a bearish butterfly and we have two sessions until the PPI report, BTC could show minor bounce. The price action that we see on the 1H chart is hard to call "reliable", but, at least it has a relatively small risk. This is only for scalp traders who want to buy BTC. A minor pullback could happen here. Besides, this is the only pattern that we could extract from messy and choppy fluctuation by far... But with a high degree of certainty, this trade will be rather bumpy.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
40K is highly likelyMorning folks, Now you understand our doubt on taking any long position on BTC by far. Despite our H&S setup has tried to show upward action with some bounce and was with relatively low risk, BTC once again shows its dependence on interest rate performance. The recent fed minutes release just has crushed it once again. We really hope that BTC will be able to avoid serious bearish consequences, but now situation is becoming more tricky. Anyway, as we suggest that 10-year yields should rise at least to 1.8% area, it makes very probable BTC drop to 1.27 extension of 40K area. Drop to the next 35.5-36K target is also probable but to say it definitely we need to see the performance to 40K target first. If it becomes the same way as yesterday, then yes, BTC follows to 36K as well. That's being said, now we do not consider taking any new long positions. Besides, we do not have any patterns and other technical reasons to do it by far. Now BTC price shape accurately repeats the shape of consolidation on daily chart after the May collapse. Let's hope that this duplication continues and BTC keeps chances on the reversal from current levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
IF you want to...Morning folks, Hopefully, you've got a good time and Holidays with your family and had some rest... We have a lot of things to tell today, but all of them stand on higher time frames, which is out of the scope of daily analysis. Our previous setup has worked perfectly and confirmed our doubts about BTC strength. Today we could confirm the same, as we see a lot of technical moments that increase chances of another drop on BTC. But, if you still want to try to buy it - here is a 1H pattern. At least it provides reasonable risk to deal with it. And in the worst case, you could be out at breakeven. This is the reverse H&S pattern on the 1H chart that BTC likes to form. The market now is coming to the final stage and forming the right arm. It means that somewhere around 46.3-46.35$ the entry point should be ready. Our suggestion is that chances stand high that this pattern fails, but anyway, this is a probability game and it doesn't mean that you can't try it. If you're not sure - then sit on the hands and wait for clarity. Our basic scenario is BTC should challenge recent lows within a few sessions. So, with our next update on Thu, we should get more clarity on this situation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
No bullish breakthroughMorning folks, So, we've got the drop that counted on last time and BTC once again at 5/8 support. But is it ready to be bought now? I have big doubts on it. BTC now stands in tight performance with the US interest rates. Once they have jumped to 1.56% area - BTC has dropped. Right now, interest rates suggest minor retracement, as "222" Sell pattern has been completed there. The reflection of this we have on BTC - a bit ugly 3-Drive buy, suggesting possible pullback to 48.1-48.3K area. But this is only for scalp traders. In a bit longer perspective, we think that the time is not come yet to invest. First is - drop was rather deep and choppy. Market stands at 5/8 support for the second time, which increases the chance of further drop back to the lows. Second - right now we do not have any clear bullish pattern and no solid bullish performance that could assure us with reversal. That's being said - if you trade on 1H or lower time frames, you could try to buy with 48.1-48.3 target at K-resistance area. While on higher time frames, daily/weekly basis, we do not see sufficient context for long entry right now. Chances on re-testing of major lows have increased as well, with this recent downside action...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
I would wait for the pullback still...Morning folks, So, H&S performance was rather nice, despite that market was thin. Now is the major question - whether we're ready for new rally, or its not the time yet. My personal view is the latter. Despite that jump was nice, but if we take a look at 4H chart we see that - market stands at strong K-resistance area, and overall action on CD leg is a bit slower than on AB pullback. Besides, bearish grabber could be formed within few hours. Personally I'm a bit conservative, and in the conditions like that I prefer to wait for clarity and try to catch the possible pullback around major support areas - the nearest one is around 48K. THere are some other reasons exist on higher time frames as well. But, this is just my personality. Tastes stand to differ. So, if you would like to possess on immediate upward continuation, which also has chances to happen - you could try to do this. For this purpose you do not need to place deep stop. In fact, downside reaction on COP is done already and if market goes up at all - it should do it right from here. Otherwise, "my" scenario above starts to realize. So, chose what you like more and what is better fits your trading style.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
47.10-47.60 for potential long entryMorning everybody, So, last time we said that market shows no bullish performance that could be sufficient to consider the long entry. Finally, we've got something. Maybe this is the result of thin market, but anyway, this is at least something that have bullish sentiment. On 1H chart first is - price has formed upside bullish reversal swing. This action makes possible appearing of reverse H&S pattern. The right arm theoretically should be formed around 47.10-47.60 area - around major 5/8 Fib support. Invalidation point is, as usual - below the head. If H&S fails, and BTC can't start upward action - we should again recall the downside XOP target @ 42K.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
42.40K stands on the horizonMorning folks, As BTC shows really weak performance, we suggest it would be better to wait with any long positions by far. One of the reasons is recent reaction on major AB=CD target on 1H chart. The reaction was only minor AB-CD (blue) retracement and not even attempt to form, say, reverse H&S pattern. It makes us think that XOP target is the next one - 42.40K This also should be the big test for the major lows as XOP stands just 50$ above it. Thus, we suggest that it would be better to wait when XOP will be reached, or until situation will change in some other way and BTC starts to show bullish signs. Currently we do not see it. Breaking of 42K lows will be bad thing suggesting much deeper drop on higher time frames. To keep bullish context BTC has to stay above this low.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Anemic action provides nothing valuableMorning everybody, So, BTC is so stunned by recent collapse that it can't show anything interesting by far. The only things that we could discuss is intraday performance. Thus, our '222" Buy on 4H chart has started well, but it already has completed the minimum target. Recent reaction on Fed statement makes us think that this is more the profit booking by speculators rather than change in sentiment. It means that BTC could try to climb slightly higher to complete 50.11K target, but hardly (at least we do not see any signs for this) it will go to the next "blue" XOP . That's being said, if you have long position with "222" Buy - you could try to hold it until 50.11K target, but now we do not see comfortable conditions for taking new long position by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
No sighs of recovery yetMorning folks, Currently BTC follows to our basic scenario that we've announced after collapse has happened. Market should fluctuate in a range as it has happened after May sell-off. There are few reasons for that as fundamental as technical. Technically - market has solid bearish momentum that should be faded first. Recent performance makes us think that BTC still could creep lower and even re-test the low that is set now. Fundamentally - market is entering into new environment of tighter Fed policy that happens for the first time in its history. And nobody can predict how BTC reacts. First test looks not very optimistic as BTC was sold off as well as some 2nd quality risky asset. Since within few days another Fed meeting comes and we think that hawkish comments are highly likely, BTC could get 2nd hit. Right now price action on 1H chart doesn't show any signs of recovery. This is mostly indecision behavior. That's being said, in current situation we do not see something else, except potential "222" Buy pattern around 45-45.5K area. This is something, at least, that could provide more or less acceptable background. Besides, 45 is closer to 41k lows then current price action. If we get strong downside action - this pattern should be ignored. Only gradual downside retracement, in the way how we see it now will be acceptable for this setup.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
We need to be patientMorning folks, This time we do not discuss any clear trading setups, as we do not have any of them yet. But what we see interesting right now is comparison of May collapse and the recent one. First is, we expect some similarity on how market should react and behave on it. Last time it was flat consolidation before BTC has shown real thrusting action and breaks the consolidation up. The same thing we expect to see now. But first market has to confirm the lows by multiple testing of them. The reason why we need it - different background of collapse. Last time it was single factor - banning of the mining in China. This time we have more serious and time extended pattern - Fed policy. And currently it is not definite yet that lows are set already. In nearest time we expect wide BTC fluctuation and re-testing of previous lows. Thus, we do not consider any long positions by far. Be patient...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Crucial 3 weeksMorning everybody, So, once again H&S from our last report has become great indicator of further action. It has failed, and failed miserably. Once again it shows how important to have clear pattern that lets you to minimize potential loss. I'm sure, somebody, who have traded H&S failure were able to get good result. Anyway, today is nothing to discuss on lower time frames. Collapse just has happened, and market has not enough time to response. The major thing we have on the monthly chart. Market has dropped to strong K-area and potentially could form the bullish grabber. Hopefully we'll get it. In this case market keeps bullish context and will remain on the way to 76K+ area. But, before taking long-term position - we have to get grabber confirmation, i.e. wait until December close. The reasons are simple. First is, BTC was looked like cheap 2nd quality risky assets and it has taken the first, initial impact of changing fundamental background. It has dropped almost for 30% - much more compares to the stocks, for example. It explains how investors treat it, and proves that it is too far until BTC could even pretend on the quality of safe-haven. It means that current pullback might be just technical reaction, but not buyers step-in. We're dealing not with just reaction on some news headline. Market react on changing of economical background, that is extended in time. This is the risk, that once first reaction will be over - BTC could keep going lower. So, be patient and not hurry up with long entry.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
The lovely H&S againMorning folks, As we've suggested last time, in general BTC keeps bullish context but it would be better to buy as close to local lows as possible. It seems that H&S pattern becomes the favorite one for the BTC market. Now - once again, if you intend to go long, this is the time for decision making, as price is coiling around the right arm's bottom. The stop is better to place at least under 55K area, as market still could form a kind of butterfly here, with slightly deeper action. But it is not definitely, and only to choose the stop area. Position taking time has already come. In a case of H&S failure we suggest downside action somewhere to 51K - market will fluctuate inside wide weekly support area of 51-54K. It is vital for long term performance. So, if you have bearish view - then your choice is to watch for H&S failure signs, such as price dropping below 55K and moving to the head's bottom.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for upside reversalMorning folks, So, BTC finally has dropped to predefined 51-53K strong support area, and based on technical picture it is suitable enough to reverse price. At the same time with Omicron panic around the Globe, the reversal process might be tricky and BTC could show more volatility around this level. In fact, we have a lot of different bullish signs that point on possible upside reversal (if not major but moderate, at least), and it is impossible to show them all on this chart. So, if you would like to - watch the video on FPA site. Its free. Here we just tell that current support is crucial for BTC sentiment. We suggest that invalidation point stands under the level, and right now it would be better to not place stop too tight below the recent lows. By our view, reasonable area is below 50K. In this case your stop will be as below strong support as below weekly oversold and has minimum chances to be filled occasionally. Hence, the task is to buy BTC as close to the lows as possible. We see few patterns that might be formed here - and one of them reverse H&S that already we could recognize, but it looks better on 4H chart. Also you could consider intraday support levels for entry as well by other reasons (watch the video). Finally be aware of bearish grabber that is forming right now on daily chart. We hope that it will be cancelled by the end of the day, but who knows... With new variant fears around, market could challenge the lows few times, if we get some bad news headlines.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Looks a bit heavy...Morning folks, Last time we've said that price performance with supposed H&S pattern should clarify the sentiment and direction. Now we see that performance looks a bit heavy. This is not the one that you expect to see with bullish reversal pattern. The logic of H&S suggests that the 2nd half of the pattern should be controlled by bulls, that we do not see here. In fact, market has made attempt to touch the neckline but failed and drop back to the head. Now right at the bottom BTC has formed "222" Sell pattern (that you could see on 1H chart). This performance provides not sufficient context for immediate long entry and increases chances on another downside action to major 51-53K support area. For long entry here we need more confirmation of bullish sentiment. With the things as they stand now, we suggest not to take long position by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Watching for the pattern #2Morning folks, Last time we were watching for H&S on 1H chart that perfectly clarified situation to us. Now, market has completed next downside 4H target at 15.5K and is forming the same pattern but of a bit bigger scale. So, we once again intend to use it. For the bulls - you have to make decision right now as price stands at the bottom of the right arm. You could place relatively tight stop, somewhere in the middle between the head bottom and right arm's lows. Because if market doesn't turn up here - it doesn't turn up at all and keep dropping to next support area. For the bears - you could use Stop "Sell" order slightly above the Head's bottom. If H&S works - do nothing and wait when it hits the target, at least. These setups are not mutually exclusive, so you could combine them if you want...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Just watch for the patternMorning guys, So a lot of concern now stands on next BTC step. Our downside AB=CD retracement is completed perfectly as market hits 59.5 support and target area. Our answer is simple here. On 1H chart market always equally reacts on support. It starts forming a kind of H&S shape - so you could see the similarity by yourself from our chart. It means that this is the pattern for those, who intends to go long. This is relatively safe, as invalidation point stands right at the bottom of the pattern. At the same time - this pattern is a signal. If it fails - then be prepared to the 50-51K drop. The failure of the pattern is the signal for the bears.... If you decide to buy BTC - try to move stops at breakeven as soon as possible, when minor upside reaction follows, at least. Because market could limit upside action just with minor target, as it was last time...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
About retracement againGreetings everybody, So last week was relatively quiet with no impact on higher time frames. Market stands in consolidation, slightly was hit by CPI report. So the same question we have on the table now - whether it will be deeper AB=CD retracement or, market could start moving higher immediately. To answer it, we need to control two vital levels that are mutually exclusives. First, let's start from the bearish scenario. Market has formed reversed H&S on 1H chart and almost hits its first, AB=CD target. This target creates Agreement resistance with daily 5/8 Fib levels. And overall shape looks like "222" Sell pattern. So, if you have bearish view - this is the area that you need to think about. Once you take the position - move stops to breakeven as soon as possible. Next one is bullish scenario. Once pullback from resistance starts - we need to keep an eye on 64.8-65K area. This is neckline, and K-support area. If BTC indeed is bullish - it has to stay above it. Downside breakout means that bearish scenario wins and we get deeper daily AB=CD action. Hence - this level is for bulls to consider. If 1H H&S keeps working - next target stands around 69K top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
CPI effect durabilityMorning folks, So the drop that we've discussed last time has happened but due to absolutely different reason - CPI report. Now the question is, how long CPI effect will be. As BTC has general bullish context sooner rather than later it should keep going higher. Here we have two scenarios. To understand which one will be formed - we need to keep an eye on daily chart and intraday one. On daily, we need to watch for bullish grabber, as BTC stands at support of recent ATH and K-support area on intraday charts. If grabber appears tod-tom, it means that BTC is able to start rising immediately. Alternatively, if no grabbers appear - we could get downside AB-CD that could start from ~ 66K area lead price to next support of 62K. This action anyway is tactical and doesn't hurt long term background. But, it is solid action anyway. That's being said we're watching for daily patterns and price performance around 66K resistance where "222" Sell might be formed.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
63.5-64.5 are for entry, 70K is nearest targetMorning folks, So, it seems our bet on triangle's direct breakout is worked and we hope that we're in continuation mode to the major upside targets. At least fundamental background that we've got last week stands supportive to BTC upward action. So, those who haven't taken position inside the triangle now we could consider 63.5-63.8 K-support area on 1H chart and optionally nearest support at 64.5K. Market hits AB=CD target, so, at least minor respect we should get. Hopefully it will be enough to step-in. Our nearest upside target is the daily one, and it stands at 70K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten